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A non-conventional energy future
Christophe de MargerieChairman & CEO
TOTAL
APPEA 2012 ConferenceAdelaide, May 14th
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TOTALs LT vision of the world energy mix
Moderate growth of globalenergy demand (+25% in 20
years)
Fossil fuels = 76% of energysupply in 2030
Oil production expected tolevel off at around 96 Mb/d
Gas to become the second-largest energy source
Strong growth but limitedcontribution of new energies
Solar : +15% CAGR
Biofuels : +5% CAGR
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
260.0
280.0
300.0
320.0
340.0
100
300
200
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Biomass
Solar, wind, others
Gas
Coal
30%
24%
22%
6%
11%
3%4%
33%
22%
26%
6%
10%
2%
31%
23%
24%
6%
11%
3%2%
2010 2030(e)2020(e)
Mboe/d
81%76%
Source: Total, as of feb. 2012
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Unconventional resources are key for our industrys future
~3,500 Bboe
oil shale
extra heavy oil
unrisked tight oil
Yet to findand increased recovery rate
Identified resources
35
100
80
~2,500 Bboe
50
130
Already produced
80
Oil resources Gas resources
Years of productionat current pace
Unconventional resources
unrisked shale &tight gas, CBM
Years of productionat current pace
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Unconventional gasUnconventional oil Conventional gasConventional oil
(*) excluding oil shales
Oil 2350 Gboe (*) Gas 2500 Gboe
Conventional Unconventional Conventional Unconventional
70% 30% 49% 51%
Unconventional oil and gas rebalancing resources geographicaldistribution
NorthAmerica
Europe
Middle East
FSU
AsiaAfrica
SouthAmerica
% : repartition of conventional and unconventional reserves and resources per region
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Growth in global gas demand (+2.5% per year between 2010-2020)led by a booming Asian market (+6.2% per year)
Increase of gas consumption
in the North Americanenergy mix, moderated byenergy efficiency programs
LNG imports/exportsto remain marginal
North America Europe Asia
Gas demand+1.8% CAGR
10 20(e)
Domestic supply Pipeline imports Existing LNG contracts
Gas demand+6.2% CAGR
10 20(e)
Gas demand+1.5% CAGR
Bcf/d
10 20(e)
Demand driven by power
generation, especially inEastern Europe and Turkey
Gas, best alternative (versusnuclear or coal) to meetincreasing energy needs
China as a new driver
of LNG demand
Real but limited globalimpact of Fukushimaaccident
30
60
90
Bcf/d
30
60
90
Bcf/d
30
60
90
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LNG, a growth market with increase in demand = +5%per year between 2010-2020
Strong LNG demand in bothtraditional and emerging markets
Asian market particularly strong
Complexity of LNG projectsincreasing tensions on supply
Tightening markets supportiveof gas prices in Europe and Asia
Large capital requirements neededto match LNG demand
Global LNG supply / demand
Existing facilities
Approved projects
Asiandemand
Otherdemand
400
200
Mt/y
600
LNG supply
LNG nominal capacities
2005 2010 2015(e) 2020(e) 2025(e) 2030(e)
~15
~50
~100
LNG supply based onother identified projects
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Australias LNG industry is changing scale, to becomethe worlds largest LNG exporter by 2017/18
Source: Woodmac
$35B
$45B
$16B
$25B
$26B
Large resource potential
and favourable location toserve the Asian market
Projects under constructionto increase fourfold theAustralian LNG production
capacity by 2016-2018
A major industrial andhuman challenge
Project costs and operating
costs shall be kept undercontrol to remain competitiveversus other LNG exportingcountries
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
mm
tpa
Qatari capacity
operating Under construction
Possible speculative
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Total is a global LNG actor, with large projects under way
Yamal LNG (FEED)
15 Mt/y
TOTAL: 20%
Ichthys
8.4 Mt/y
TOTAL: 24%
As of 31/12/2011
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Angola LNG (13.6%) GLNG (27.5%)
Three LNG projects under development
Start-up: 1H12
Capacity: 5.2 Mt/yof LNG
Start-up: 2015
Capacity: 7.2 Mt/y of LNG
Upstream LNG
Mt/y
Capacity8.4 Mt/y of LNG,1.6 Mt/y ofLPG
~100 kb/dof condensates
Start-upend-2016
34 B$ investment including LNG plant
LNG sold on long-term contractsindexed to oil price
Ichthys (24%)
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CSR embedded in our strategy to be ACCEPTABLE
Ethics and human rightsat the forefront
Taking care of localcommunities
Careful environmentalstewardship
Ethics committee reportingdirectly to CEO
Anti-corruptionandcompliance programs
Human RightsInternal Guide
Active member of GlobalCompact LEAD
Minimizing environmentalimpact (air, water, soil)
Limiting green house gasemissions
Improving energyefficiency
Reducing flaring
Working togetherwith local stakeholders
Being a local actor, wherever weare
Listening to local communitiesand entertaining a real dialog withthem
Emphasizing local content
Volume of gas flared
Msm3/d
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Making non-conventional developments acceptable
We have to understand and to address a widespread feeling ofdistrust towards energy companies
A global issue
Severe accidents in the recent past: Fukushima, Macondo
Critics and fears towards technologies used in new hydrocarbon
developments: deep offshore, shale gas, oil sands...
Gas developments in Australia need to be better understood
Number and size of projects will inevitably have an impact
The industry must
Better communicate about the projects Treat industrial safety and environmental stewardship as top priorities
Identify potential nuisance, mitigate them and enter into a sinceredialog with the communities concerned
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A non-conventional energy future
Christophe de MargerieChairman & CEO
TOTAL
APPEA 2012 ConferenceAdelaide, May 14th