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Child Poverty and the
Social Safety Net in California
Sarah Bohn and Caroline Danielson
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The stakes are high for reducing child poverty
� Economic hardship has a big effect on children
� About one-quarter of California’s children live in poverty
� Rates of child poverty are higher than among � Rates of child poverty are higher than among working-age and older Californians
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Policymakers need an accurate picture of need among the state’s children
� Official poverty measure was devised in 1960s and has not been modified
� California Poverty Measure is more comprehensive and up-to-date
Measures how children are faring across state
and up-to-date
– Measures how children are faring across state regions
– Accounts for impact of safety net programs
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How the California Poverty Measure works
Earnings
Safety net benefits
Medical
Commuting
Child care
Varies by:
Family size
Region
– < >Resources Expenses Poverty threshold*
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Other incomeChild care Region
Homeownership status
* Average threshold $30,063 in 2011
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Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
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Our findings are sobering
� 2.3 million children in poverty in 2011
– 25.1% of population age 17 and under
� Our estimate is slightly higher than the official poverty ratepoverty rate
� Rates are declining, but still high
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Statewide, poverty rates are roughly similar for children of different ages
25.1%26.3%
24.8% 24.2%
15%
20%
25%
30%
rate
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0%
5%
10%
15%
All Children 0-5 6-12 13-17
CP
M r
ate
Age
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“Deep” poverty is relatively low, but “near” poverty is high
530,000, 6%
1,790,000, 19%
4,530,000, 49% Under 50%
50% to 99%
100% to 149%
150% and above
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
2,390,000, 26%
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Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
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Child poverty rates are higher in Los Angeles and Orange counties
Northern16.6%
Bay Area22.4%
Sacramento region22.0%
Central Sierra
16–19
20–23
24–27
28–31
Ranges of child poverty rates (%)
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
22.4%
Central Coast26.9%
Central Sierra17.7%
Los Angeles30.6%
Inland Empire22.6%
San Diego26.3%
Orange30.4%
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In most areas, rates are higher among younger children
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern
under 5
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0 10 20 30 40
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
CPM rate for children
under 5
6-12
13-17
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Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
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Three major factors drive child poverty
� Cost of living
� Family earnings
� Safety net resources
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Cost of living is higher in populous parts of the state
-$6,000 -$4,000 -$2,000 statewide avg $2,000 $4,000
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern
Cost of Living comparison (amount above or below statewide average)
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
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Most children in poverty live in working families…
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern Earnings of $12,000 or more
Any earnings
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0 20 40 60 80 100
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Percent
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…but family earnings are often below a minimum-wage level
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern Earnings of $12,000 or more
Any earnings
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0 20 40 60 80 100
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Percent
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The social safety net includes many programs with diverse aims
Recipients (millions)
Federal, state, and local expenditures
(billions)
CalWORKs 1.47 $3.44
General Assistance 0.15 $0.40
Supplemental Security Income 1.27 $9.14Supplemental Security Income 1.27 $9.14
CalFresh 3.64 $6.73
Child Tax Credit 2.91 (filers) $4.14
Earned Income Tax Credit 3.27 (filers) $7.25
Federal housing subsidies 0.48 (units) $3.60
School breakfast and lunch 2.18 $2.04
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The safety net plays a major role in mitigating need
� Without major safety net program benefits, 1.3 million more children would be poor
– 420,000 age 5 and under
– 510,000 ages 6 to 12510,000 ages 6 to 12
– 360,000 ages 13 to 17
� In other words, nearly 40 percent of California’s children would be poor
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Safety net resources moderate child poverty across the state
22
22
18
17
21
8
17
21
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern
CPM rate Percentage points higher if no safety net
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
26
30
31
23
27
11
7
15
16
15
0 10 20 30 40 50
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Percent of children
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Disentangling the factors that drive child poverty
� Variation in housing costs means that families need substantially more resources in some regions
– Poor families in high-cost areas do earn more
� Safety net benefits are not tied to the cost of livingSafety net benefits are not tied to the cost of living
– Contributes to regional differences in the impact of the safety net
� Eligibility for, accessibility of, and willingness to enroll in safety net programs also play a role
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Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
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� 2.3 million of California’s children in poverty
� More than official estimates suggest
� Children in some areas struggle more; but there are high levels of need across the state’s diverse areas
Poverty is a reality for a quarter of California’s children
high levels of need across the state’s diverse areas
� Substantially more children would be poor were it not for safety net program resources
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Can policy make a deeper impact on child poverty?
� Policies to increase the safety net’s impact are routinely debated
� Of current interest:
– Minimum wage– Minimum wage
– State Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
� CPM methodology lays groundwork for simulating how proposed changes might affect family budgets and poverty status
– Assessing effects on inequality also possible
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What would it take to eliminate deep poverty among California’s children?
� Among families with children in deep poverty, how much is the total dollar amount of the “gap”?
– We estimate $1.5 - $2.0 billion annually
� How much could be filled by increasing program take up? Raising eligibility thresholds? Increasing How much could be filled by increasing program take up? Raising eligibility thresholds? Increasing benefits?
� What would be principal challenges of targeting?
– What opportunities and challenges do regional differences present?
� Which programs could see the largest increases?
– Opportunity costs of supporting those increases24
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Notes on the use of these slides
These slides were created to accompany a presentation.
They do not include full documentation of sources,
data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid
misinterpretations, please contact:
25
Sarah Bohn ([email protected]; 415-291-4413)Caroline Danielson ([email protected]; 415-291-4462)
Thank you for your interest in this work.
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Child Poverty and the
Social Safety Net in California
Sarah Bohn and Caroline Danielson