Child Poverty and the
Social Safety Net in California
Sarah Bohn and Caroline Danielson
The stakes are high for reducing child poverty
� Economic hardship has a big effect on children
� About one-quarter of California’s children live in poverty
� Rates of child poverty are higher than among � Rates of child poverty are higher than among working-age and older Californians
2
Policymakers need an accurate picture of need among the state’s children
� Official poverty measure was devised in 1960s and has not been modified
� California Poverty Measure is more comprehensive and up-to-date
Measures how children are faring across state
and up-to-date
– Measures how children are faring across state regions
– Accounts for impact of safety net programs
3
How the California Poverty Measure works
Earnings
Safety net benefits
Medical
Commuting
Child care
Varies by:
Family size
Region
– < >Resources Expenses Poverty threshold*
4
Other incomeChild care Region
Homeownership status
* Average threshold $30,063 in 2011
Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
5
Our findings are sobering
� 2.3 million children in poverty in 2011
– 25.1% of population age 17 and under
� Our estimate is slightly higher than the official poverty ratepoverty rate
� Rates are declining, but still high
6
Statewide, poverty rates are roughly similar for children of different ages
25.1%26.3%
24.8% 24.2%
15%
20%
25%
30%
rate
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0%
5%
10%
15%
All Children 0-5 6-12 13-17
CP
M r
ate
Age
“Deep” poverty is relatively low, but “near” poverty is high
530,000, 6%
1,790,000, 19%
4,530,000, 49% Under 50%
50% to 99%
100% to 149%
150% and above
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
2,390,000, 26%
Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
9
Child poverty rates are higher in Los Angeles and Orange counties
Northern16.6%
Bay Area22.4%
Sacramento region22.0%
Central Sierra
16–19
20–23
24–27
28–31
Ranges of child poverty rates (%)
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
22.4%
Central Coast26.9%
Central Sierra17.7%
Los Angeles30.6%
Inland Empire22.6%
San Diego26.3%
Orange30.4%
In most areas, rates are higher among younger children
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern
under 5
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0 10 20 30 40
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
CPM rate for children
under 5
6-12
13-17
Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
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Three major factors drive child poverty
� Cost of living
� Family earnings
� Safety net resources
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Cost of living is higher in populous parts of the state
-$6,000 -$4,000 -$2,000 statewide avg $2,000 $4,000
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern
Cost of Living comparison (amount above or below statewide average)
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Most children in poverty live in working families…
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern Earnings of $12,000 or more
Any earnings
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0 20 40 60 80 100
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Percent
…but family earnings are often below a minimum-wage level
Central Coast
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern Earnings of $12,000 or more
Any earnings
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
0 20 40 60 80 100
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Percent
The social safety net includes many programs with diverse aims
Recipients (millions)
Federal, state, and local expenditures
(billions)
CalWORKs 1.47 $3.44
General Assistance 0.15 $0.40
Supplemental Security Income 1.27 $9.14Supplemental Security Income 1.27 $9.14
CalFresh 3.64 $6.73
Child Tax Credit 2.91 (filers) $4.14
Earned Income Tax Credit 3.27 (filers) $7.25
Federal housing subsidies 0.48 (units) $3.60
School breakfast and lunch 2.18 $2.04
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The safety net plays a major role in mitigating need
� Without major safety net program benefits, 1.3 million more children would be poor
– 420,000 age 5 and under
– 510,000 ages 6 to 12510,000 ages 6 to 12
– 360,000 ages 13 to 17
� In other words, nearly 40 percent of California’s children would be poor
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Safety net resources moderate child poverty across the state
22
22
18
17
21
8
17
21
Central Sierra
Bay Area
Sacramento area
Northern
CPM rate Percentage points higher if no safety net
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SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2011.
26
30
31
23
27
11
7
15
16
15
0 10 20 30 40 50
San Diego
Orange
Los Angeles
Inland Empire
Central Coast
Percent of children
Disentangling the factors that drive child poverty
� Variation in housing costs means that families need substantially more resources in some regions
– Poor families in high-cost areas do earn more
� Safety net benefits are not tied to the cost of livingSafety net benefits are not tied to the cost of living
– Contributes to regional differences in the impact of the safety net
� Eligibility for, accessibility of, and willingness to enroll in safety net programs also play a role
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Outline
� Children in or near poverty
� Regional variations in child poverty
� Factors that drive child poverty
� Conclusions and future research� Conclusions and future research
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� 2.3 million of California’s children in poverty
� More than official estimates suggest
� Children in some areas struggle more; but there are high levels of need across the state’s diverse areas
Poverty is a reality for a quarter of California’s children
high levels of need across the state’s diverse areas
� Substantially more children would be poor were it not for safety net program resources
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Can policy make a deeper impact on child poverty?
� Policies to increase the safety net’s impact are routinely debated
� Of current interest:
– Minimum wage– Minimum wage
– State Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
� CPM methodology lays groundwork for simulating how proposed changes might affect family budgets and poverty status
– Assessing effects on inequality also possible
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What would it take to eliminate deep poverty among California’s children?
� Among families with children in deep poverty, how much is the total dollar amount of the “gap”?
– We estimate $1.5 - $2.0 billion annually
� How much could be filled by increasing program take up? Raising eligibility thresholds? Increasing How much could be filled by increasing program take up? Raising eligibility thresholds? Increasing benefits?
� What would be principal challenges of targeting?
– What opportunities and challenges do regional differences present?
� Which programs could see the largest increases?
– Opportunity costs of supporting those increases24
Notes on the use of these slides
These slides were created to accompany a presentation.
They do not include full documentation of sources,
data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid
misinterpretations, please contact:
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Sarah Bohn ([email protected]; 415-291-4413)Caroline Danielson ([email protected]; 415-291-4462)
Thank you for your interest in this work.
Child Poverty and the
Social Safety Net in California
Sarah Bohn and Caroline Danielson