![Page 1: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Changing Level of the Ocean: TheImpact of Sea Level Change
1
![Page 2: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
“Of all the ongoing and expectedchanges from global warming. . .the increase in the volume of theoceans and accompanying rise inthe level of the sea will be themost immediate, the mostcertain, the most widespread,and the most economicallyvisible in its effects.” Pilkey andYoung, The Rising Sea, 2009
“…sea level has been rising atleast 50% faster…thanprojected by the IPCC 2007AR4 Report.” Ramsdorf, 2012
2
![Page 3: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Major Information Sources• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)• National Academies (Science and Engineering)• U.S. Global Change Research Program (13 Fed.
Agencies)• CA Climate Change Center (core research at Scripps
and UCB) and Climate Action Team (state agencies)• National Science Foundation• National Center for Atmospheric Research• Climate peer-reviewed literature (lots!)• World Bank• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers• UCSD-Scripps Coastal Data Information Program
3
![Page 4: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Tem
pera
ture
Weather
“Weather” vs. “Climate”
Time
4
![Page 5: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Why So Much Concern Now?• Identified as most serious possible “abrupt” change by
IPCC in 2007 and more data showing that’s true• Rate of rise has accelerated from ~1.7 mm/yr (0.07”)
during 20th century to 3.2 mm/yr (0.13”) over the past 20years and up to 3.2-3.6 today
• This rate accelerating and expected to continue withwarming
• Related to SLR are:– Storm surges– Extreme high (“king) tides and waves– Coastal development
• CA study (SFSU, 2011) shows $100B property at risk for1m SLR and $14B annually needed to protect property
5
![Page 6: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Impacts of Sea Level Rise: NotJust a Third World Problem
• Biggest problem flooding especially if high tide occurswith storm surge, high waves and El Niño
• Major coastal erosion• Salination of coastal groundwater, estuaries, wetlands• Infrastructure impacts for CA ($100B at max. 55” rise)
– Transportation (highway, rail, shipping, air)– Urbanized areas– Oil, natural gas, electric facilities– Water and wastewater treatment– 104 Harbors/ports
6
![Page 7: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
NASA: Mean SLR = 3.18 +0.6 mm/yr
3.18mm/yr = ~1.3”/decadeover 1992-2012
7
![Page 8: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
From U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2011
8
![Page 9: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Oceans (sea level)• CA coastal sea
level increased 7-8” in last 100years
• Predictions for CAare additional 24-55” rise by 2100*
• 100-year floodevent will becomea 10-year event
*From CA Climate Change Research Center 2009:IPCC 2007 predicted 7 – 23”
55”
24”
9
![Page 10: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
550 - 1100??It’s not a catastrophic end of civilization but majoradaptation to change and life as we know it; Problem isacceleration in rate of change not that earth has never seenthese temps
Last ice age peaked~20,000 years ago,sea levels about 390’(120m) lower
Sea levels 13-20’ (4-6m)higher than today with
temps 5-9ºF higher (~2100prediction)
Reference dates- Today 395 ppm
- IPCC 2007 380 ppm- IPCC 2002 360 ppm
10
![Page 11: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Expected range for2100 (NAS)
Long-term“modern” average~280 ppm
11
![Page 12: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
From Donaghue, 2011
12
![Page 13: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Today’s rate of SLR =3.2mm/yr.
~0.1mm/yr
13
![Page 14: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
SL = -120m
SL = current
NOAA graphics14
![Page 15: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
(~4 ft.)
15
![Page 16: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
From Vermeer and Ramstorf,2009
Sea Level Changeand Rate of
Change Since 1880(red lines observed)
Rate ChangesLast 3K years = ~0.1mm/yr20th Cent. = 1.7 mm/yr1961-2003 = 1.8 mm/yr1993-2003 = 3.1 mm/yr1993-2008 = 3.2-3.6 mm/yr
16
![Page 17: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Refs. NASA and French Space Agency,2012From Tebaldi et al. (NOAA),
2012 (Note: CA Climate ChangeCenter predicts 0.3-0.45m SLRby 2050)
17
![Page 18: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
ºF
7
11
3
CA ClimateChange ResearchCenter (2009)
< 20th Century SLR constant= 3.4 mm/yr/ °C
18
![Page 19: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
IPCC,2007
2012 Updates
19
![Page 20: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Causes of Sea Level Rise*• Warming expands water (30%)• Glacier/ice sheet melt (70%)
*Percentagescurrently undermuch discussion andchange
1947
2009
South Cascade Glacier,WA – 1960 and 2004(NAS, 2008)
Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica
20
![Page 21: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Complicating Factors: Building aRealistic Scenario*
• Start with +1m SL increase Add tides and exceptional (King) tides Add wave runup distance and height
(video) and possibility of extreme(rogue, tsunami) waves
Add storm surges
*High water focus
21
![Page 22: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
From Strauss et al., 2012
Mean ~1.5m
22
![Page 23: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
S.M. 2012*High = +6.93’Low = -1.58’Add 3.3’ (1m)New High =10.23’San Fran. =10.1’Balboa = 9.6’(11.3’ actualin 2011)
23
*predicted
![Page 24: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Average seasonal cycle of mean sea level
24
![Page 25: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
King TidesDefinition: extreme wintertime high tide eventsthat occur as the result of the combinedgravitational forces of the sun and moon.
“Broad” Beach, Malibu: Photos by Laurel Bartels
25
![Page 26: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
LAT Broad Beach 2008
26
![Page 27: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Graphic from U. Wisc.
D
H
“Sea level rise acts as the baselinereference point to which storm surgeheight is added.” World Bank, 2009
27
![Page 28: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Wave Runup
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=10PfxgbGBMg
28
![Page 29: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Accelerated erosion of slope toes
29
![Page 30: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Coastal Flooding 2009-10
“Extreme” Waves
30
![Page 31: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Crystal Cove Erosion 2009-2010
~5’
31
![Page 32: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Storm surges add intensity
Graphic buy John F. Henz
El Nino –warmeroceans, morestormintensity
La Nina –cooleroceans, lessstorm intensity
32
![Page 33: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Graphic from Scripps Coastal Data Information Program, May 201233
![Page 34: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Extreme wave height statistics for a 20-year return time (From: aviso.oceanobs.com)
34
![Page 35: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
“… coastal floods may reach locally rare heights more swiftlyin southern California than almost any other (23 studied) area,when considering effects of sea level rise integrated withstorm surge patterns…”From Tebaldi et al. (NOAA), 2012
35
![Page 36: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
“Atmospheric Rivers”
From American Geophysical Union, 2011and Scripps (Jan. 1988 photo)
Oct.2009
36
![Page 37: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Pacific Institute, 2009
Light blue = current 100-yr floodplainDark blue = modeled with +1.4m(55”) rise by ~2100
LongBeach
37
![Page 38: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Pacific Institute, 200938
![Page 39: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Pacific Institute, 2009
39
![Page 40: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Pacific Institute, 2009
40
![Page 41: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
S.F. Bay
41
![Page 42: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
![Page 43: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
San Diego Bay
43
![Page 44: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Pop.>
44
![Page 45: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
From Strauss et al., 2012
~Maryland ~1.2% of U.S.
45
![Page 46: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Photo and map from OC Register, March 2011
Recall highest tides with1m SLR added in:2011 = 11.3’2012 = 9.6’Seawalls now at 9’
46
![Page 47: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
+1.5m
Olympia, WA - SLRCurrent “Worst-case” Scenario
(~0.8m)
47
![Page 48: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
World Bank assessment of top25 cities over 100,000
population and countriesimpacted by rising sea levels
(2012)
48
![Page 49: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Alliance of Small Island States:42 countries, 5% global
population
49
![Page 50: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Banda Aceh, Indonesia – 2004 Sumatra(island) tsunami
50
![Page 51: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Mekong Delta, Vietnam
51
![Page 52: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Mekong River, Vietnam (tidal influenced)
52
![Page 53: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Mekong River, Cambodia (tidal influenced)
53
![Page 54: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Tonle Sap (lake) Cambodia(tidal influenced)
54
![Page 55: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Malé, capital ofMaldives
Shanghai
55
![Page 56: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Tuvalu – pop. 11,000Tarawa, Kiribati –pop.~30,000
56
![Page 57: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Other Effects of SLR• Biophysical effects of SLR on coastal regions include:
- Inundation, flood and storm damage- Wetland loss- Erosion- Saltwater intrusion- Coral bleaching from higher sea water temperatures- Ocean productivity changes and species migration.
• Socio-economic impacts- Increased loss of property and coastal habitats- Increased flood risk and potential loss of life- Damage to coastal protection works and otherinfrastructure- Loss of renewable and subsistence resources- Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportationfunctions.57
![Page 58: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Adaptation• Disaster preparedness
• Evacuation• Prediction
• Development planning, phased evacuation andbuilding codes
• Engineering upgrades• Define impact zones (floodplains, wave runup,
wetlands)• Assess infrastructure (floodwalls, erosion
prevention, drainage)• Install detection systems(surges, waves)
• Focus international aid (ex. World Bank)• Modernize insurance rates
58
![Page 59: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Adaptation Actions
World Bank
US Army Corps ofEngineers
State of CAExecutive Order
59
![Page 60: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Questions?
Hundreds gather inNortheast to protestglobal warming
60
![Page 61: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Update May2012 = 395
Latestpredictions forrange 550-1100
Sea levels 13-20’ (4-6m)higher than today with
temps 5-9ºF higher(~2100 prediction)
Last ice age ended~10,000 years ago, sealevels about 390’(120m) lower
![Page 62: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Possible “Abrupt” Changes (IPCC, 2007)
• Ocean circulation and acidification• Ice cover/glacier ablation Sea level rise (coastal/island inundation)• Hydrologic cycle (floods and droughts)• Ecosystem changes• Rapid release of methane from permafrost and ocean
sediments• Increased risk of species extinctions
![Page 63: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
![Page 64: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
![Page 65: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Peak SLR rate = 45mm/yr
![Page 66: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
* “Likely” means 66% chance; ** CA Climate Change Research Center, 2009
*
Range 2 – 13.5ºF Range 7 – 23”
CA Prediction** 3-10.5ºF
(1-2.5ºF by2050)
20-55”
(11-18” by2050)
![Page 67: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
![Page 68: Changing Level of the Ocean: The Impact of Sea Level Change · 2012-05-11 · Changing Level of the Ocean: The ... changes from global warming. . . the increase in the volume of the](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022063001/5f187c56d0edc711db775b79/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Expected range for2100
Long-term“modern” average~280 ppm