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Challenges & Opportunitiesin the P/C Insurance Industry
Focus on Massachusetts Markets
Massachusetts Association of Insurance Agents2006 Annual Convention
Boston, MANovember 3, 2006
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, Executive Vice President & Chief EconomistInsurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038
Tel: (212) 346-5520 ♦ Fax: (212) 732-1916 ♦ [email protected] ♦ www.iii.org
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Presentation Outline
• P/C Profit Overview: US vs. MA & Nearby States• Underwriting Trends
Primary & Reinsurance• Pricing/Availability Trends• Financial Strength & Ratings• Investments• Capital & Capacity• Catastrophe Loss Management
Residual Property Markets: US and MA• Key Line Results• Post-Katrina Litigation Update• Optional Federal Chart (OFC)• Terrorism: Are TRIA’s Days Numbered?
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P/C PROFIT OVERVIEW
Awash in Profits, Starved for Growth
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P/C Net Income After Taxes1991-2006E ($ Millions)*
$14,178
$5,840
$19,316
$10,870
$20,598$24,404
$36,819$30,773
$21,865
-$6,970
$3,046
$30,029
$56,668
$43,013
$20,559
$38,501
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06F
*ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. 2005 ROAS = 9.8% after adj. for one-time special dividend paid by the investment subsidiary of one company. 2Based on H1 results; Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Inst.
2001 ROE = -1.2%2002 ROE = 2.2%2003 ROE = 8.9%2004 ROE = 9.4%2005 ROE= 10.5%2006 ROAS1,2 = 13.0%
2006 Net Income may shatter
previous records
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06*
US P/C Insurers All US Industries P/C excl. Hurricanes
ROE: P/C vs. All Industries 1987–2006:H1
*2006 P/C insurer ROE based on annualized H1 results.Source: Insurance Information Institute; Fortune
Andrew Northridge
Hugo Lowest CAT losses in 15 years
Sept. 11
2004/5 ROEs excl. hurricanes
4 Hurricanes
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
Insurers will outperform only if CAT losses are “normal”
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The Importance of Profits• Profits compensate shareholders for the assets they put at risk• Profitable companies can access capital markets under
favorable terms after mega-CATs or if market conditions are poor (e.g., post-9/11); Others will fail, are dissolved or acquired
• Preferred treatment by reinsurers• Profits lead directly to increased capacity• Profits build contingent capacity for mega-CATs• Profits enable investments in the future of the enterprise (tech,
people, etc.) and to seize upon new opportunities (new states, M&A, etc.)
• Profitable companies have higher financial strength and credit ratings
• Profitable companies have more political and public policy cloutCan lobby effective at state and federal levelCan help support research and
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WALL STREET:
MAINTAINING THE CONFIDENCE OF WALL
STREET IS CRITICAL FOR MANY INSURERS
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4.2%
4.0% 4.5%
3.8%
2.2% 2.5% 3.
3%
2.7% 3.
9%
2.6% 3.2%
2.9%
4.9%
8.7% 9.3%
-4.0
%
-3.5
%
-2.7
%
-4.1
%
-5.3
%
-4.5
%
-5.7
%
-5.8
%
-6.0
%
-6.2
%
-5.3
%
-5.6
%
-5.6
%
-1.3
%
-0.5
%
-5.5
%
-6.4
% -4.8
%
-5.5
%
-0.6
%
1.9%
2.1% 3.
6% 4.8%
3.4%
2.2% 2.
8%
5.0% 7.
0%
13.3
%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
5-Aug
12-Aug
19-Aug
26-Aug
2-Sep
9-Sep
16-Sep
23-Sep
30-Sep
7-Oct
14-Oct
21-Oct
28-Oct
04-Nov
31-Dec
P/C Reinsurers Brokers
Source: SNL Securities; Insurance Information Institute
Change in YTD Stock Performance by Sector Pre- & Post-Katrina/Rita/Wilma
P/C & reinsurer stocks hurt but now fully recovered. Brokers rose on expectation of tighter conditions and demand for broker
services; closure of Spitzer issues.Katrina: Aug. 29
Rita comes ashore Sept. 24
Wilma landfall Oct. 24
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P/C Insurance Stocks: Slow Start, Strong Finish in 2006
-2.54%
2.76%
4.71%
10.90%
13.46%
11.28%
10.34%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
S&P 500
Life/Health
Reinsurers
P/C
All Insurers
Multiline
Brokers
Source: SNL Securities, Standard & Poor’s, Insurance Information Institute
Total YTD Returns Through October 27, 2006
P/C & reinsurer
stocks now up in 2006
on low CAT losses, strong
earningsBroker stocks hurt by weak
earnings
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MASSACHUSETTS PROFITABILITY
KEY LINES &NEARBY STATES
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-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
US MA
All P/C Lines ROE:US vs. MA, 1995–2004
Source: NAIC
Profitability in MA insurance markets is on average better than the US (PP Auto is the exception)
US = 7.7% MA = 11.1%
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
US MA
Private Passenger Auto ROE:US vs. MA, 1995–2004
Source: NAIC
Profitability in the MA auto market lags behind the US
US = 8.5% MA = 5.9%
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
US MA
Homeowners Insurance ROE:US vs. MA, 1995–2004
Source: NAIC
Profitability in the MA homeowners market exceeds that of the US due to relatively low CAT losses
1995-2004 Avg.
US = 2.4%
MA = 13.3%
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PP Auto: Average Return on Equity: US & MA, RI, CT, NH, VT, NY, NJ
1995-2004
5.9%8.5%
8.7%
9.2%11.0%
11.7%12.1%
13.2%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Vermont
New York
New Jersey
US
Massachusetts
Source: NAIC
1995-2004MA offers the lowest PP auto profitability of any state in the
Northeast
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Average Return on Equity: US & MA, RI, CT, NH, VT, NY, NJ, Homeowners
1995-2004
3.4%8.5%
9.2%
12.1%13.3%
13.4%15.9%
18.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Rhode Island
New York
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Vermont
US
Source: NAIC
1995-2004
MA homeowners insurance has been relatively
profitable
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$539 $552$585
$668 $671 $673$714 $721
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
NH VT NJ US MA RI CT NY
Average Expenditure for HO Ins.:US & Northeast States (2003)*
*Latest available.Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute (III)
MA homeowners insurance expenditures are about average
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$683
$776$821
$983 $992$1,052
$1,161 $1,188
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
VT NH US CT RI MA NY NJ
Average Premiums for Auto Insurance US & Northeast States (2003)*
*Latest available.Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute (III)
MA PP auto insurance expenditures are well above the US average
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UNDERWRITING
Surprisingly Strong in 2005, Stage is Set for a
Good 2006!
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115.8
107.4
100.198.3
92.7
100.7
9492.0
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05H1 05 06H1 06F IIIForecast*
P/C Industry Combined Ratio
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, III. *III forecasts/estimates for 2006 full year.
2005 figure reflects heavy use of reinsurance which
lowered net losses, but still a substantial deterioration
from first half 2005
2006 is could produce the best
underwriting result since the 94.9 combined ratio in 1955
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103.
9
104.
5
103.
5
104.
9
99.8 10
2.7
104.
5
109.
9
110.
9
105.
3
98.4
94.3 96
.4
94.0
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06F
Personal LinesCombined Ratio, 1993-2006E
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
A very strong 2006 is order due underwriting innovations
and low CAT activity
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110.
3
110.
2
107.
6
103.
9 109.
7
112.
3
111.
1
122.
3
110.
2
102.
5
105.
1
96
102.
0
112.
5
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06F
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1993-2006E*
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute .
Outside CAT-affected lines, commercial
insurance is doing fairly well. Caution
is required in underwriting long-
tail commercial lines.
2006 results will benefit from relatively disciplined underwriting
and low CAT losses
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($55)($50)($45)($40)($35)($30)($25)($20)($15)($10)($5)$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Underwriting Gain (Loss)1975-2006F*
Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute *2006F of $30.2B is annualized H1 gain of $15.1B
$ B
illio
ns
Insurers sustained a $5.9 billion underwriting loss in 2005. First half 2006 underwriting gain was $15.1B implying a record gain of about $30B for full-year
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97.5
100.6 100.198.3
92.7 92.0
100.7
9.4% 10.4%
15.3%14.3%
15.9%
9.4%
13.0%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1978 1979 2003 2004 2005:H1 2005 2006:H1
Com
bine
d R
atio
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Ret
run
on E
quity
*
Combined Ratio ROE*
* 2006 figure is return on average statutory surplus.Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.
A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What it Used to Be: 95 is Where It’s At
Combined ratios today must be below
95 to generate Fortune 500 ROEs
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$10.
8
$22.
7
$13.
9
$9.9
$8.0
$5.0
$2.0$0.4
2.41.9
1.10.4
6.5
3.63.5
0.1
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E
Res
erve
Dev
elop
men
t ($B
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Com
bine
d R
atio
Poi
nts
PY Reserve Development Combined Ratio Points
Impact of Reserve Changes on Combined Ratio
Source: A.M. Best, Lehman Brothers for years 2005E-2007F
Reserve adequacy is improving substantially
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$6,3
20
$2,1
18
$1,7
29
$1,1
09
$850
$241
$148
$27
($1,
779)
($1,
686)
($1,
156)
($79
9)
($61
7)
($10
3)
($27
)
$3,5
13
($3,000)($2,000)($1,000)
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000
Oth
er L
iabi
lity
Rei
nsur
ance
Wor
k. C
omp
Prod
. Lia
b.
Com
ml.
MP
Fide
lity/
Sure
ty
Com
ml.
Aut
o
Med
Mal
Inte
rnat
iona
l
Finl
. Gua
rant
y
Spec
ial L
iab.
Oth
er
Spec
ial P
rop.
Hom
eow
ners
PP A
uto
Aut
o PD
2004 Prior Year Reserve Development by Line ($ Millions)
Source: A.M. Best, Lehman Brothers.
Longer-tail casualty coverages have been the source of most
reserve problems in recent years
Reserve Strengthening
Reserve Releases
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EXPENSES
Will Expense Ratio Rise as Premium Growth Slows?
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Personal Lines Underwriting Expense Ratio,* 1994-2005
21.8% 22.0% 21.8%
23.5%
29.8%
24.3%24.4%
23.6%
23.4%
22.7%23.2% 23.6%
23.5%
28.4%
27.7%
28.5%28.5%
30.8%31.1%
30.8%
30.6% 30.3%
30.6%
29.4%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Auto Home
*Ratio of expenses incurred to net premiums written.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Expenses ratios will likely rise as premium
growth slows
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Personal vs. Commercial Lines Underwriting Expense Ratio*
23.4%24.3%
25.0%
30.8%
24.4%
24.5%24.8%25.6%
24.6%
25.6%24.7%
26.6%25.6%
30.0%
31.1%
29.4%29.9%
29.1%
26.6%
25.0%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Personal Commercial
*Ratio of expenses incurred to net premiums written.Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Expenses ratios will likely rise as premium
growth slows
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REINSURANCE MARKETS
Higher Reinsurance Costs Squeezing Insurers, Pushing Property CAT Prices Upward
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Global Number of Catastrophic Events, 1970–2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Natural catastrophes Man-made disasters
Man-made disasters: without road disasters. Source: Swiss Re, sigma No. 1/2005 and 2/2006.
The number of natural and man-made
catastrophes has been increasing on a global
scale for 20 years
Record 248 man-made CATs &
record 149 natural CATs in 2005
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110.
5
105.
0
113.
6
119.
2
104.
8
100.
8
100.
5 114.
3
106.
5 125.
8
111.
0 123.
3
108.
8
115.
8
106.
9
106.
7
106.
0
101.
9
105.
9
110.
1
115.
8
107.
4
100.
1
98.3
100.
725
9.0
162.
4
126.
5
108.
0
108.
5
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Reinsurance All Lines Combined Ratio
Combined Ratio:Reinsurance vs. P/C Industry
Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Reinsurance Association of America, Insurance Information Institute
HurricaneAndrew
Sept. 11
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
4 Florida Hurricanes
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Share of Losses Paid by Reinsurers, by Disaster*
30%25%
60%
20%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Hurricane Hugo(1989)
Hurricane Andrew(1992)
Sept. 11 TerrorAttack (2001)
2004 HurricaneLosses
2005 HurricaneLosses
*Excludes losses paid by the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, a FL-only windstorm reinsurer, which was established in 1994 after Hurricane Andrew. FHCF payments to insurers are estimated at $3.85 billion for 2004 and $4.5 billion for 2005.Sources: Wharton Risk Center, Disaster Insurance Project; Insurance Information Institute.
Reinsurance is playing an increasingly
important role in the financing of mega-CATs; Reins. Costs
are skyrocketing
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-5%
-11%-9% -8%
-4%
2%
16%
21%
11%
-4%-6%
25%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 05E 06F0
25
50
75
100
125
rate changes [left] index level [right]Sources: Swiss Re, Cat Market Research; Insurance Information Institute estimate for 2006.
Reinsurance Prices Surged in 2006 Following Record CATs in 2005
US cat reinsurance price index: 1994 = 100
In hurricane-prone areas, property CAT
reinsurance prices are up 100-300%+
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A Look Ahead to Reinsurance Markets for 2007
• Despite lack of major hurricane in 2006, reinsurance pricing strong in US for 2007
New capital entry not sufficient to fully meet demandReinsurance prices flat at best outside peak CAT zones
• Retrocessional market still tight• Softening in European p/c reinsurance markets• Softening in US casualty reinsurance markets
More pronounced if property cat reinsurers shift emphasis• Capital market role expanding
Hedge funds, private equitySecuritization: Insurance Linked SecuritiesSome concern over staying power, (lack of) regulationComplement or competitor to traditional reinsurance?
Sources: Insurance Information Institute.
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UNDERWRITING AFFECTS FINANCIAL
STRENGTH
Is There Causefor Concern?
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Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments, 1969-2005
*Includes overstatement of assets.Source: A.M. Best: P/C Impairments Hit Near-Term Lows Despite Surging Hurricane Activity, Special Report, Nov. 2005;
Catastrophe Losses8.6%
Alleged Fraud11.4%
Deficient Loss Reserves/In-
adequate Pricing62.8%
Affiliate Problems
8.6%
Rapid Growth8.6%
2003-2005 1969-2005
Deficient reserves,
CAT losses are more important factors in
recent years
Reinsurance Failure3.5%
Rapid Growth16.5%
Misc.9.2%
Affiliate Problems
5.6%
Sig. Change in Business
4.6%
Deficient Loss Reserves/In-
adequate Pricing38.2%
Investment Problems*
7.3%
Alleged Fraud8.6%
Catastrophe Losses6.5%
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Historical Ratings Distribution,US P/C Insurers, 2000 vs. 2005
A/A-52.3%
A++/A+9.2%
B++/B+26.4%
Vulnerable*12.1%
Source: A.M. Best: Rating Downgrades Slowed but Outpaced Upgrades for Fourth Consecutive Year, Special Report,November 8, 2004 for 2000; 2006 Review & Preview for 2005 distribution. *Ratings ‘B’ and lower.
A/A-48.4%
D0.2%C++/C+
1.9%
E/F2.3% A++/A+
11.5%
C/C-0.6%
B++/B+28.3%
B/B-6.9%
2000 2005 A++/A+ shrinkage
Ratings agencies increasing emphasis on multiple
events require more capital
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Ratings Agencies Tightening Requirements for CATs
2006 SRQ CAT Model Reqs.*•All Property Exposure•Auto Physical Damage•Reinsurance Assumed•Pools & Assessments•All Flood Exposure•WC Losses from Quake•Fire Following•Storm Surge•Demand Surge•Secondary Uncertainty
ALSO “A.M. Best will perform additional “stress-tested” risk-adjusted capital analysis for a second event in order to determine the potential financial condition of an entity post a severe event.”IMPLICATION: Some insurers may be required to carry more capital to maintain the same rating.
*SRQ = Supplemental Rating QuestionnaireSource: A.M. Best Review & Preview, January 2006.
Best currently estimates PML for
100-yr. wind & 250-yr. quake to determine capital
adequacy
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PRICE & AVAILABILITY
Pricing Pictureis Mixed
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
F20
07F
2008
F20
09F
2010
F
Note: Shaded areas denote hard market periods.Source: A.M. Best, Insurance Information Institute
Strength of Recent Hard Markets by NWP Growth*
1975-78 1984-87 2001-04
*2006-10 figures are III forecasts/estimates. 2005 growth of 0.4% equates to 1.8% after adjustment for a special one-time transaction between one company and its foreign parent. 2006 figure of 2.9% is based on 2006:H1 data.
2006-2010 (post-Katrina) period could resemble 1993-97
(post-Andrew)
2005: biggest real drop in premium since early 1980s
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Property Catastrophe Price Index*1994 - 2006
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
WorldwideUSEuropean StormRest of the World
*Insurance Information Institute figure of 13.8% for 2005 based estimated 2005 DPE of $417.7B and insured CAT losses of $57.7B. Includes primary and reinsurance coverage.Sources: ISO, A.M. Best, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting; Insurance Information Institute.
US CAT prices are continue to rise faster than anywhere else in
the world
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$651 $668$691 $705 $703
$685 $689$723
$777$821
$867$844
$863
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04* 05* 06*
Average Expenditures on Auto Insurance
*Insurance Information Institute Estimates/ForecastsSource: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Countrywide auto insurance expenditures are expected to
rise just 0.5% in 2006
Will the “big guys”stay disciplined? So far, so good. Tiering
adopted to avoid adverse selection
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$539 $552$585
$668 $671 $673$714 $721
$400$450$500$550$600$650$700$750
New H
amps
hire
Vermon
tNew
Jerse
y USMas
sach
usetts
Rhode Isla
ndConnec
ticut
New York
Average Premiums for HO Insurance US & New England States (2003)*
*Latest available.Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute (III)
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$418$440 $455
$481 $488$508
$536
$593
$668 $693 $711$739
$400$450$500$550$600$650$700$750$800
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04* 05* 06*
Average Expenditures on Homeowners Insurance
*Insurance Information Institute Estimates/ForecastsSource: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute
Countrywide home insurance expenditures are expected to rise 4% in 2006, but much more
in hurricane zones
Hurricane zone residents can expect increases in the
20%-100% range, especially if insured by a state entity
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$683$776
$821
$983 $992$1,052
$1,161 $1,188
$500$600$700$800$900
$1,000$1,100$1,200
Vermon
tNew
Ham
pshire US
Connectic
utRhode I
sland
Massa
chuse
tts
New York
New Je
rsey
Average Premiums for Auto Insurance US & New England States (2003)*
*Latest available.Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute (III)
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New Private Housing StartsWill Slow Through 2009
2.07
1.92
1.82
1.75
1.70 1.73
1.72 1.
771.75
1.48
1.351.
461.
291.
201.
011.
19
1.47
1.62
1.64
1.57
1.60 1.
711.
85 1.96
1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.2
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06F
07F
08F
09F
10F
11F
12F
13-1
7F
Source: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (3/06), Insurance Info. Institute
New home construction is expected to fall by 18% from
2005-2009 as interest rates rise. Exposure growth
forecast for HO insurers will slow as a result.
Millions of Units Homeowners accounts for 12% of Direct Premiums Written
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Average Commercial Rate Change,All Lines, (1Q:2004 – 3Q:2006)
-0.1%
-3.2%
-7.0%
-9.4%-9.7%
-4.6%
-2.7%-3.0%
-5.3%-5.9%
-8.2%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute
Magnitude of rate decreases has diminished
greatly since mid-2005 but is growing again
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Average Commercial Rate Change by Line
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers
Commercial accounts trended downward from early 2004 to mid-2005
though that trend moderated post-Katrina
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Average Commercial Rate Change by Account Size
Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers
Accounts of all sizes are renewing
downward and more quickly than in 06Q2
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Percent of Commercial Accounts Renewing w/Positive Rate Changes, 2nd Qtr. 2006
71%
48%
28%21%
63%
32%
21%12% 10%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Southeast Southwest Pacific NW Northeast Midwest
Commercial Property Business Interruption
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers
Largest increases for Commercial Property & Business Interruption are in the Southeast, smallest in Midwest
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Commercial Accounts Rate Changes,2nd Qtr. 2005 vs. 2nd Qtr. 2006
-6.0%
-9.1%-6.6%
-8.4%
-4.5%
9.3%
-5.6%-3.6%
-2.3%
-7.3%
-13.3%
-6.9%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
CommercialAuto
WorkersComp
CommercialProperty
GeneralLiability
Umbrella Average
2Q05 2Q06
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers
Only commercial property is
renewing up in 2006
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Commercial Accounts Rate Changes,2nd Qtr. 2006 vs. 3rd Qtr. 2006
-4.5%-5.6%
-3.6%-2.3%
-6.5%
-1.4%
-6.9%-5.5% -5.4%
-6.9%
9.3%
-6.8%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
CommercialAuto
WorkersComp
CommercialProperty
GeneralLiability
Umbrella Average
2Q06 3Q06
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers
Even commercial property is now
renewing down in 2006
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Average Rate Increase/Decreaseby Industry Class
5%
0%
-1%-2%
-4%
5%
-4%
0% 0%1%
-5%
0%
-5%
-7%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%
Energy Contracting Public Entity Transport. Habitational Service Manufacturing
September 2005 September 2006
Source: MarketScout.com
Largest increases are in the energy sector
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INVESTMENTS
Does Investment Performance Affect
Discipline?
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$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
7576777879808182 83848586878889909192939495969798 9900010203040506
Net Investment Income$
Bill
ions
Growth History
2002: -1.3%
2003: +3.9%
2004: +3.4%
2005: +23.7%**
2006H1***: - 3.5%
Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute;**Includes special dividend of $3.2B. Increase is 15.7% excluding dividend. ***Annualized H1:06 figure.
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US P/C Net Realized Capital Gains,1990-2006:H1 ($ Millions)
$2,880$4,806
$9,893
$1,664
$5,997
$9,244$10,808
$18,019
$13,016
$16,205
$6,631
-$1,214
$6,610
$869
$9,696$9,125
$9,818
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Realized capital gains rebounded strongly in 2004/5 but are trailing
through the first half of 2006 due to weak markets. 3rd qtr. rebound will help.
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-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: Ibbotson Associates, Insurance Information Institute. *Through November 3, 2006.
Total Returns for Large Company Stocks: 1970-2006*
S&P 500 is up 9.54% so far in 2006*
Markets moving up as energy prices and LT interest
rates fall & earnings rise
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Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain*
$ Billions
$35.4
$42.8$47.2
$52.3
$44.4
$36.0
$45.3$48.9
$59.2
$50.8$56.9
$51.9
$57.9
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05** 06E*Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. 2006 estimate based on actual annualized 2006:H1 result of $25.375B.**2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
Investment gains are up but are only now comparable to gains seen in the late 1990s
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UNDERWRITING CAPACITY
Can the Industry Efficiently Employ Its Increasing Capital?
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$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
7576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697989900010203040506
U.S. Policyholder Surplus: 1975-2006*
Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute *As of 3/31/06.
$ B
illio
ns
“Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations
Capacity TODAY is $445.5B, 4.3% above year-end 2005, 56% above its 2002 trough and 33%
above its 1999 peak.
Foreign reinsurance and residual market
mechanisms absorbed 45% of 2005 CAT
losses of $62.1B
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Announced Insurer Capital Raising*($ Millions, as of December 1, 2005)
$1,500
$38
$400$450$600$710
$300$100$140
$600
$129$297
$620
$124$202$150$299
$490
$3,200
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Ace Ltd.
Argonau
tAspen
AxisEndu
rance
Everest
ReFair
fax Finl.
Glacier
Re
HCC Insuran
ceIP
C Hldgs
Kiln PLC
Max R
eMon
tpelier
ReNav
igator
sOdyss
ey Re
Partner
RePlat
inumPXRE
XL Cap
ital
$ M
illio
ns
*Existing (re) insurers. Announced amounts may differ from sums actually raised. Sources: Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Company Reports; Insurance Information Institute.
As of Dec. 1, 19 insurers announced plans to raise $10.35 billion in new capital. Twelve start-ups plan to
raise as much as $8.75 billion more for a total of $19.1 billion. Actual total higher as Lloyd’s syndicates
have added capacity for 2006.
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Announced Capital Raising by Insurance Start-Ups($ Millions, as of April 15, 2006)
$1,500
$1,000$1,000$1,000$1,000$1,000$1,000
$500 $500 $500 $500
$220 $180$100
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
Harbo
r Poin
t*Amlin
Bermuda
Flagsto
ne Re
Validus H
oldings
Lanca
shire
Re*
*Aug
sbur
g Re
Ariel R
eHisc
ox B
ermud
aNew
Cast
le Re
Arrow C
apita
lXL/H
ighfie
ldsGre
enlig
ht Re
Omega S
pecialt
yAsce
ndent R
e$
Mill
ions
*Chubb, Trident are funding Harbor Point. Announced amounts may differ from sums actually raised. **Stated amount is $750 million to $1 billion. ***XL Capital/Hedge Fund venture. Arrow Capital formed by Goldman Sachs.Sources: Investment Bank Reports; Insurance Information Institute.
As of April 15, 14 start-ups plan to raise as much as $10 billion.
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CATASTROPHE LOSS
MANAGEMENT
Insurers Have Done a Fairly Good Job at Managing CAT Risk
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U.S. InsuredCatastrophe Losses ($ Billions)*
$7.5
$2.7
$4.7
$22.
9$5
.5 $16.
9$8
.3$7
.4$2
.6 $10.
1$8
.3$4
.6$2
6.5
$5.9 $1
2.9 $2
7.5
$100
.0
$61.
8
$6.2
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0506
**20
??
*Excludes $4B-$6b offshore energy losses from Hurricanes Katrina & Rita. ** As of Sept. 30, 2006.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.Source: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$ Billions
2005 was by far the worst year ever for insured
catastrophe losses in the US, but the worst has yet to come.
$100 Billion CAT year is coming soon
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$20.0 $24.0 $26.0$33.0 $33.0 $34.0 $35.0
$41.0 $42.0
$80.0
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
Homest
ead H
urr (19
45, F
L)
Ft. Lau
derdale
Hurr
(1947
, FL)
Donna (
1960
, FL)
Okeech
obee
Hurr
(1928
, FL)
Galvest
on (1
900,
TX)Best
sy (1
965,
LA)LI E
xpres
s (19
38, N
Y)Katr
ina (20
05, L
A)*And
rew (1
992,
FL)*
Miam
i Hurr
(1926
, FL)
$ B
illio
ns
With rapid coastal development,
$40B+ storms will be more common
Source: AIR Worldwide **ISO/PCS estimate as of June 8, 2006
(Billions of 2005 Dollars) Northeast storms make
the Top 10 list
Insured Losses from Top 10 Hurricanes Adjusted to 2005 Exposure Levels
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$9 $11 $11 $12 $16$25 $27
$38
$88
$108
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
San Jo
se, C
A (7-1-
1911
; 6.6)
Portla
nd, OR (8
-12-18
77; 6
.3)
San Fra
ncisco
(6-1-
1838
; 7.2)
Mar
ked T
ree, A
R (1-5-
1843
; 6.5)
Northrid
ge, C
A (1-17
-1994
; 6.7)
Haywar
d, CA (1
0-21-1
868;
6.8)
Ft. Tejo
n, CA (1
-9-18
57; 7
.9)
Charle
ston, S
C (8-3-
1886
; 7.3)
*
New M
adrid
, MO (2
-7-18
12; 7
.7)*
San Fra
ncisco
(4-18
-1906
; 7.9)
$ B
illio
ns
With development along major fault lines, the threat of
$25B+ quakes looms large
Source: AIR Worldwide
(Billions of 2005 Dollars)
3 of the Top 10 are not West Coast events
Insured Losses from Top 10 Earthquakes Adjusted to 2005 Exposure Levels
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Insured Loss & Claim Count for Major Storms of 2005*
$1.1
$40.6
$10.3$5.0
104383
1,047
1,744
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
Dennis Rita Wilma KatrinaSize of Industry Loss ($ Billions)
Insu
red
Loss
($ B
illio
ns)
02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
Cla
ims
(thou
sand
s)
Insured Loss Claims
*Property and business interruption losses only. Excludes offshore energy & marine losses.Source: ISO/PCS as of June 8, 2006; Insurance Information Institute.
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma & Dennis produced a record 3.3
million claims
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Top 10 Most Costly Hurricanes in US History, (Insured Losses, $2005)
$3.5 $3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7$10.3
$21.6
$40.6
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Georges(1998)
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo(1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
$ B
illio
ns
Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.
Seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in US history
occurred in the 14 months from Aug. 2004 – Oct. 2005:
Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Ivan, Frances & Jeanne
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2005 Was a Busy, Destructive, Deadly & Expensive Hurricane Season
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, January 18, 2006.
All 21 names were used for the first time ever, so
Greek letters were used for the
final storms
2005 set a new record for the number of hurricanes &
tropical storms at 28, breaking the old record set in 1933.
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2006 Hurricane Season: Much Less Active Than Expected
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, October 20, 2006.
What a difference a year makes! Just 9
named storms through Oct. 20, 2006 vs. 22 as of
same date in 2005!
![Page 71: Challenges & Opportunities in the P/C Insurance Industry ...€¦ · Massachusetts Association of Insurance Agents 2006 Annual Convention Boston, MA November 3, 2006 Robert P. Hartwig,](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022052005/60189f3b7522bb740b02d231/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
2006 Hurricane Season:Forecasts Repeatedly Scaled Back
13101517
26100%
275%
140%195%
90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
50-YearAverage*
2005 Actual May 31Forecast
August 3Forecast
September 1Forecast
Nam
ed S
torm
s
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Net
Tro
pica
l Cyc
lone
Act
ivity
Named Storms Net Tropical Cyclone Activity
2006 hurricane seasons has turned out to be far less severe than anticipated
*Average over the period 1950-2000.Source: Insurance Information Institute compilation of forecasts by Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University.
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Global Number of Catastrophic Events, 1970–2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Natural catastrophes Man-made disasters
Man-made disasters: without road disasters. Source: Swiss Re, sigma No. 1/2005 and 2/2006.
The number of natural and man-made
catastrophes has been increasing on a global
scale for 20 years
Record 248 man-made CATs &
record 149 natural CATs in 2005
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Insured Property Catastrophe Losses as % Net Premiums Earned, 1983–2005E
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05E
USWorldwideUS average: 1984-2004
*Insurance Information Institute figure of 13.8% for 2005 based estimated 2005 DPE of $417.7B and insured CAT losses of $57.7B.
Sources: ISO, A.M. Best, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting; Insurance Information Institute.
US CAT losses were a record 13.8% of
net premiums earned in 2005 and were 4.2 times the 1984-2004 average
of 3.3%
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Number of Major (Category 3, 4, 5) Hurricanes Striking the US by Decade
4
6
65
4
6
88
5
8
6
9
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s*Figure for 2000s is extrapolated based on data for 2000-2005 (6 major storms: Charley, Ivan, Jeanne (2004) &Katrina, Rita, Wilma (2005)).
Source: Tillinghast from National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtm.
10
1930s – mid-1960s:Period of Intense Tropical
Cyclone Activity
Mid-1990s – 2030s?New Period of Intense
Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tropical cyclone activity in the mid-1990s entered the active
phase of the “multi-decadal signal” that could last into the 2030s
Already as many major storms in
2000-2005 as in all of the 1990s
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Source: AIR Worldwide
Insured Losses: $110BEconomic Losses: $200B+
$70
$30
$5 $4 $1$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
NY NJ PA CT Other
Nightmare Scenario: Insured Property Losses for NJ/NY CAT 3/4 Storm
Total Insured Property Losses =
$110B, nearly 3 times that of
Hurricane Katrina
Distribution of Insured Property Losses,
by State, ($ Billions)
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$147.2
$42.1
$75.6
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
US RI MA
$ B
illio
ns
Surplus backing Top 10 home insurers in US (and in most states) is much larger than that of MA. This issue is related to peculiarities in the
state’s auto market.
Source: HighlineData LLC; Insurance Information Institute.
(Billions of Dollars)
Surplus Backing Top 10 Homeowners in US vs. MA, 2005
Homeowner insurer surplus in
tiny RI is 80% larger than MA
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Hurricane Katrina Claim Status on Storm’s 1st Anniversary*
In Process, 3%
Mediation/ Litigation, 2%
Settled, 95%
95% of the 1.2 million
homeowners insurance claims in Louisiana & Mississippi are
settled, with just 2% m dispute
*Hurricane Katrina made its north Gulf coast landfall August 29, 2005.Source: Insurance Information Institute survey, August 2006.
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Hurricane Katrina Insured Loss Distribution by State ($ Millions)*
Mississippi, $13,605 , 33.5%
Louisiana, $25,275 , 62.3%
Tennessee, $59.0 , 0.1%Florida, $572.0 , 1.4%
Georgia, $36.0 , 0.1%Alabama, $1,032 ,
2.5%
*As of June 8, 2006Source: PCS division of ISO.
Louisiana accounted for
62% of the insured losses
paid and 56% of the claims filedTotal Insured
Losses = $40.579 Billion
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Hurricane Katrina Loss Distribution by Line ($ Billions)*
Homeowners, $17,564.0 , 43%
Commercial Property & BI, $20,847.0 , 52%
Vehicle, $2,168.0 , 5%
Total insured losses are
estimated at $40.579 billion
from 1.7438 million claims. Excludes $2-
$3B in offshore energy losses
*As of June 8, 2006Source: PCS division of ISO.
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Hurricane Katrina Claim Count Distribution by State*
Mississippi, 515,000 , 29.5%
Tennessee, 15,000 , 0.9%
Louisiana, 975,000 , 55.9%
Florida, 122,000 , 7.0%
Georgia, 7,800 , 0.4%
Alabama, 109,000 , 6.3%
*As of June 8, 2006Source: PCS division of ISO.
Louisiana accounted for 62%of insured
losses paid and 56% of claims filed
Total # Claims = 1,743,800
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Hurricane Rita Claim Count Distribution by State*
Texas, 171,000 , 44.6%
Tennessee, 3,500 , 0.9%
Louisiana, 185,000 , 48.3%
Arkansas, 5,500 , 1.4%Florida, 6,000 , 1.6%
Alabama, 5,000 , 1.3%
Mississippi, 7,000 , 1.8%
*As of June 8, 2006Source: PCS division of ISO.
Louisiana accounted for 48.3% of the
insured losses, Texas 44.6%.
Excludes offshore energy losses of $2-3BTotal # Claims
= 383,000
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Hurricane Rita Loss Distribution, by Line ($ Millions)*
Homeowners, $2,974.2 , 59%
Commercial Property & BI, $1,861.2 , 37%
Vehicles, $211.0 , 4%Total insured
losses are estimated at $5.0
billion (excl. offshore energy of $2-$3B) from 383,000 claims.
*As of June 8, 2006Source: PCS division of ISO.
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Hurricane Wilma Loss Distribution by Line ($ Millions)*
Homeowners, $7,350 , 72%
Commercial Property & BI, $2,200 , 21%
Vehicle, $750 , 7%Total insured
losses are estimated at $10.3 billion from 1.047
million claims
*As of June 8, 2006. All losses are in FL.Source: PCS division of ISO.
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Hurricane Wilma Claim Count Distribution by Line*
Homeowners, 700,000 , 67% Commercial
Property & BI, 82,000 , 8%
Vehicle, 265,000 , 25%
Total insured losses are
estimated at $10.3 billion from 1.047
million claims
*As of June 8, 2006. All losses are in FL.Source: PCS division of ISO.
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Hurricane Ophelia Loss Distribution by Line ($ Millions)*
Homeowners, $27.0 , 77%
Commercial Property & BI, $5.0
, 14%
Vehicle, $3.0 , 9%Total insured
losses are estimated at $35.0
million from 10,600 claims
*As of June 8, 2006. All losses are in NC.Source: PCS division of ISO.
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Hurricane Ophelia Claim Count Distribution by Line*
Homeowners, 8,000 , 76%
Commercial Property & BI,
1,000 , 9%
Vehicle, 1,600 , 15%
*As of June 8, 2006. All losses are in NC.Source: PCS division of ISO.
Total insured losses are
estimated at $35.0 million from 10,600
claims
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2005 Storms Have Developed Adversely
$34.4
$6.1 $4.7$8.4 $9.4
$5.0$10.3
$5.0
$38.1$40.6
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
Katrina Wilma RitaSource: Insurance Information Institute from PCS survey data.
Are the models
inaccurate?
Wilma is the storm with the most
extraordinary adverse development
+18.0%
+54.0%+6.3%
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Inflation-Adjusted U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses By Cause of Loss,
1986-2005¹
Utility Disruption0.1%
Terrorism7.7%
All Tropical Cyclones3
47.5%
Tornadoes2
24.5%
Water Damage0.1%
Civil Disorders0.4%
Fire6
2.3%
Wind/Hail/Flood5
2.8%
Earthquakes4
6.7%
Winter Storms7.8%
Source: Insurance Services Office (ISO)..
1 Catastrophes are all events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2005 dollars. Catastrophe threshold changed from $5 million to $25 million beginning in 1997. Adjusted for inflation by the III.2 Excludes snow. 3 Includes hurricanes and tropical storms. 4 Includes other geologic events such as volcanic eruptions and other earth movement. 5 Does not include flood damage covered by the federally administered National Flood Insurance Program. 6 Includes wildland fires.
Insured disaster losses totaled $289.1 billion from
1984-2005 (in 2005 dollars). Tropical systems accounted for nearly half of all CAT losses from 1986-2005, up
from 27.1% from 1984-2003.
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Total Value of Insured Coastal Exposure (2004, $ Billions)
$1,901.6$740.0
$662.4$505.8
$404.9$209.3
$148.8$129.7$117.2$105.3
$75.9$73.0
$46.4$45.6$44.7$43.8
$12.1
$1,937.3
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
FloridaNew York
TexasMassachusetts
New JerseyConnecticut
LouisianaS. Carolina
VirginiaMaine
North CarolinaAlabamaGeorgia
DelawareNew Hampshire
MississippiRhode Island
Maryland
Source: AIR Worldwide
Massachusetts has the 4th highest amount of coastal exposure at
more than $662 Billion.
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Insured Coastal Exposure as a % of Statewide Insured Exposure (2004, $ Billions)
63.1%60.9%
57.9%54.2%
37.9%33.6%33.2%
28.0%25.6%25.6%
23.3%13.5%
12.0%11.4%
8.9%5.9%
1.4%
79.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
FloridaConnecticut
New YorkMaine
MassachusettsLouisiana
New JerseyDelaware
Rhode IslandS. Carolina
TexasNH
MississippiAlabamaVirginia
NCGeorgia
Maryland
Source: AIR Worldwide
More than half (54.2%) of all
insured exposure in MA is coastal
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Value of Insured Residential Coastal Exposure (2004, $ Billions)
$512.1$306.6$302.2
$247.4$205.5
$88.0$65.1$64.5$60.0$60.0
$36.5$29.7$26.6$25.9$24.8$20.9
$5.4
$942.5
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
FloridaNew York
MassachusettsTexas
New JerseyConnecticut
LouisianaS. Carolina
MaineVirginia
North CarolinaAlabamaGeorgia
DelawareRhode Island
NewMississippiMaryland
Source: AIR
Massachusetts has more than $300 billion in insured
residential exposure—3rd
highest in the US!
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Value of Insured Commercial Coastal Exposure (2004, $ Billions)
$994.8$437.8
$355.8$258.4
$199.4$121.3
$83.7$69.7
$52.6$45.3$43.3$39.4
$23.8$20.9$19.9$17.9$6.7
$1,389.6
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
New YorkFlorida
TexasMassachusetts
New JerseyConnecticut
LouisianaS. Carolina
VirginiaMaine
North CarolinaGeorgia
AlabamaMississippi
New HampshireDelaware
Rhode IslandMaryland
Source: AIR
Commercial property exposure in MA is 4th
highest in the US at $356 billion
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Percentage of California Homeowners with Earthquake
Insurance, 1994-2004*
32.9% 33.2%
19.5%17.4%
14.6% 13.3% 13.8%15.8%15.7%
16.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
94 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04*Includes CEA policies beginning in 1996.Source: California Department of Insurance; Insurance Information Institute.
The vast majority of California homeowners forego earthquake
coverage & play Russian Roulette with their most valuable asset.
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Property Residual Markets
Explosive Growth Due toRapid Coastal Exposure
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Major Residual Market Plan Estimated Deficits 2004/2005 (Millions of Dollars)
* MWUA est. deficit for 2005 comprises $545m in assessments plus $50m in Federal Aid.Source: Insurance Information Institute
-$516
-$1,425
-$1,770
-$954
-$595 *
-$2,000-$1,800-$1,600-$1,400-$1,200-$1,000
-$800-$600-$400-$200
$0
Florida HurricaneCatastrophe Fund
(FHCF) Florida Citizens Louisiana Citizens
Mississippi WindstormUnderwriting
Association (MWUA)
2004 2005
Hurricane Katrina pushed all of the residual market property plans in
affected states into deficits for 2005, following an already record hurricane loss year in 2004
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US FAIR Plans Exposure to Loss* (Billions of Dollars)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute *Hurricane exposed states only.
$387.8$400.4
$345.9
$269.6
$140.7$113.3
$170.1
$96.5
$40.2
$0$50
$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In the 15-year period between 1990 and 2005, total exposure to loss in the FAIR plans has
surged by a massive 965 percent, from $40.2bn in 1990
to $387.8bn in 2005!
Total exposure to loss in the residual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has surged from $54.7bn in 1990 to $419.5 billion in 2005.
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US Beach and Windstorm Plans Exposure to Loss (Bill. of Dollars)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute. *Hurricane exposed states only.
$31.7$30.0$26.4$22.4
$103.5$108.0$111.8
$53.5
$14.5
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In the 15-year period between 1990 and 2005, total exposure
to loss in the Beach and Windstorm plans has more
than doubled, from $14.5bn in 1990 to $31.7bn in 2005.
In 2002 Florida combined its Windstorm and Joint Underwriting Association to create Florida Citizens, so Florida data shifted to the FAIR plans from this date.
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Massachusetts FAIR Plan Exposure to Loss ($ Billions)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute
$54.0
$39.2
$26.7$20.5
$16.7$15.3$10.3$8.3
$4.1
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In the 15-year period between 1990 and 2005, total exposure to loss in the MA FAIR Plan has surged by 1317 percent, from $4.1bn in 1990 to $54bn in 2005.
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Mass. FAIR Plan HabitationalPolicy Count (1990-2005)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute
45,480
75,06087,026 84,287 87,033 97,700
115,185
154,438
191,828
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In the 15-year period between 1990 and 2005, the MA FAIR
plan habitational policy count has shown rapid growth, going from 45,480 policies in 1990 to
191,828 policies in 2005, an increase of 322%
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MA FAIR Plan Operating Gain or Loss 2000-2005 ($ Millions)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute
$32.94
$9.46
-$14.27
-$3.38
$1.96
-$6.20
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In three of the last six years the MA FAIR Plan has
incurred an operating deficit.
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KEY LINE RESULTS:
A SUCCESSFUL SHIFT TO THE UNDERWRITING
CULTURE?
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Private Passenger Auto
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Private Passenger Auto is Enormous Part of P/C Industry
Total 2004 Direct Personal + Commercial Premiums Written = $467.0 Billion
All Commercial Lines
53.9%
PPA Coll/Comp14.2%
Homeowners11.4%
PPA Liability20.5%
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Private passenger auto accounted for 34.7% or $162.2B in DPW in 2004
$251.6B $53.2B
$95.8B
$66.4B
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101.7101.3101.3101.099.5
101.1
103.5
109.5107.9
104.2
98.4
94.395.1
93.0
90
95
100
105
110
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06F
Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio
Average Combined 1993 to 2005= 101.4
Most auto insurers have shown sig-nificant improvements in underwriting
performance since mid-2002
Sources: A.M. Best; III
PPA is the profit juggernaut of the p/c
insurance industry today
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9%
14%13%
15%
12%14%14%
11% 12%12%
10%
8%
2% 2%
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04E 05E 06F
RNW: Private Passenger Auto, United States, 1992-2006F
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute
Private passenger auto profitability deteriorated throughout the 1990s but
has improved dramatically
Segmentation should help profitability
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-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
00:Q
1
00:Q
3
01:Q
1
01:Q
3
02:Q
1
02:Q
3
03:Q
1
03:Q
3
04:Q
1
04:Q
3
05:Q
1
05:Q
3
06:Q
1
Auto Insurance Component of CPI Personal Auto-PD Pure Premium
Source: Insurance Information Institute calculations based ISO Fast Track and US BLS data.
Pure Premium Spread: Personal Auto PD Liability, 2000-2006:Q1
Margin necessary to maintain PPA
profitability
2000 PPA Combined=110
2004 PPA Combined=94
Inversion of pure premium spread is a warning sign but now in synch
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-2.2%
-5.3%-4.0%
-3.3%
-0.9%
-2.6%
-5.4% -5.6%
3.0%3.6% 3.8% 3.4%
2.8% 2.4%
-0.3%
4.7%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06*
Frequency Severity
Bodily Injury: Severity & Frequency Trends Offset Severity
*2nd quarter 2006 vs. 2nd quarter 2005.Source: ISO Fast Track data.
Medical inflation
is a powerful
cost driver
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0.8%
-1.5%
0.3%
-1.8%-2.6% -2.1% -1.9%
-5.7%
3.9% 3.3% 2.8%
0.5%
2.8%4.0%4.3%
6.2%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06*
Frequency Severity
PD Liability: Frequency Trend Roughly Offsets Severity
Fewer accidents, but more damage when they occur:
Higher Deductibles?
*2nd quarter 2006 vs. 2nd quarter 2005.Source: ISO Fast Track data.
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-1.6%
1.1%
-1.1%
0.0%
-0.6%
-7.2%-5.4%
-2.5%
3.2%
6.5%
-4.0%
0.5%
4.8%
-3.0%
6.3%
16.1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06*
Frequency Severity
PIP: Frequency Trend Now Offsets Rising Claim Severity
Fraud caused problems from
1999-2001
Is No-Fault living on borrowed time?
*2nd quarter 2006 vs. 2nd quarter 2005.Source: ISO Fast Track data.
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2.6%
-0.4%
1.9%
-3.8%-5.1% -4.6%
-1.7%
-4.5%
3.7% 3.7%
1.6%
3.9% 3.7%3.0%
4.1%
6.8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06*
Frequency Severity
Collision: Frequency Trend Offsetting Rising Claim Severity
*2nd quarter 2006 vs. 2nd quarter 2005.Source: ISO Fast Track data.
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-1.7% -2.6%
3.3%
-5.7%
-2.1%
-8.3%
-3.1% -3.6%-6.9%
15.1%
19.3%
-4.1%-2.4%
3.3%
-4.7%
8.9%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06*
Frequency Severity
Comprehensive: Favorable Frequency and Severity Trends
Comprehensive severity is up
substantially due to weather losses
*2nd quarter 2006 vs. 2nd quarter 2005.Source: ISO Fast Track data.
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Homeowners
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Private Passenger Auto is Enormous Part of P/C Industry
Total 2004 Direct Personal + Commercial Premiums Written = $467.0 Billion
All Commercial Lines
53.9%
PPA Coll/Comp14.2%
Homeowners11.4%
PPA Liability20.5%
Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute
Private passenger auto accounted for 34.7% or $162.2B in DPW in 2004
$251.6B$53.2B
$95.8B
$66.4B
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117.7
158.4
113.6118.4
112.7
121.7
101.0
108.2111.4
121.7
109.3
98.294.4
100.3
92
113.0109.4
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06F
Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio
Average 1990 to 2005= 113.1
Insurers have paid out an average of $1.13 in losses for every dollar earned
in premiums over the past 16 years
Sources: A.M. Best; III
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Rates of Return on Net Worth for Homeowners Ins: US
*Net of reinsurance; Excludes losses to state residual markets (FAIR, Beach & Wind Plans).Source: NAIC; 2004/5 figures are Insurance Information Institute estimates.
9.7%11%
7.0%
-1.7%-4.2%
3.6%
12.4%
5.4%2.5% 5.4% 3.8%
1.4%
-7.2%-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04E 05E
Averages: 1993 to 2005EUS HO Insurance = +3.8%*
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($10.60)
($0.21)
$0.69$0.43$0.86$1.08$1.23$1.28$1.43$1.16$1.47$1.88
($10.39)
($3.73)
($12)
($10)
($8)
($6)
($4)
($2)
$0
$2
$4
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05E
Underwriting Gain (Loss) in Florida Homeowners Insurance,
1992-2005E*
*2005 estimate by Insurance Information Institute based on historical loss and expense data for FLadjusted for estimated 2005 residential windstorm losses of $7.35B.
$ B
illio
ns
Florida’s homeowners insurance market produces
small profits in most years and enormous losses in others
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-$10.6-$10.8-$10.1-$9.7
-$8.8-$7.7
-$6.5-$5.2
-$3.8-$2.7
-$1.2
$0.7
-$9.7
-$13.4($16)
($14)
($12)
($10)
($8)
($6)
($4)
($2)
$0
$2
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05E
Cumulative Underwriting Gain (Loss) in Florida Homeowners
Insurance, 1992-2005E*
$ B
illio
ns
It took insurers 11 years (1993-2003) to erase the UW loss associated with
Andrew, but the 4 hurricanes of 2004 erased the prior 7 years of profits &
2005 deepened the hole.
*2005 estimate by Insurance Information Institute based on historical loss and expense data for FLadjusted for estimated 2005 residential windstorm losses of $7.35B.
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COMMERCIAL MULTI-PERIL
COMMERCIAL AUTO
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119.
0
119.
8
108.
5
125.
0
113.
1
115.
0 121.
0
116.
2
116.
1
104.
9
101.
9
100.
7
116.
8
113.
6
115.
3
122.
4
115.
0
117.
0
97.3
89.0
97.7
93.8
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
CMP-LiabilityCMP-Non-Liability
Commercial Multi-Peril Combined (Liability vs. Non-Liability Portion)
Liab. Combined 1995 to 2005 = 114.6
Non-Liab. Combined = 107.1
Sources: A.M. Best; III
CMP- has improved recently
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122.6
107.8
116.0
111.9109.6
113.8
107.6
99.5
92.095.3
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Farmowners Multi-Peril
Average Combined Ratio 1996 to 2005 = 106.1
Sources: A.M. Best; III
FMP- has improved
substantially over the past decade
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112.
1
112 113 11
5.9 12
0.5
120.
1
106.
6
99.4
96.6
93.396
.7
102.
2
99.0
99.7
99.0
103.
6
102.
3
95.9
92.1
87.1 90
.7
122.5
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Commercial Auto Liability& PD Combined Ratios
Average Combined: Liability = 110.2
PD = 97.1
Sources: A.M. Best; III
Commercial Auto has improved dramatically
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INLAND MARINE
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97.3
95.7 97
.1
101.
9
92.8
100.
2
83.8
80.8 82
.5
89.9
106.
0
102.
0 105.
9
108.
0
110.
1
115.
8
107.
5
100.
1
98.4 10
0.7
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Inland MarineAll Lines
Inland Marine vs. All P/C Lines
Avg. Combined 1996 to 2005Inland Marine = 92.2All P/C Lines = 105.5
Sources: A.M. Best; III
Inland Marine has consistently
outperformed the industry overall
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WORKERS COMPENSATION
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
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Workers Comp Calendar Year vs. Ultimate Accident Year – Private Carriers
10197
111 110 107102101
106
120
131138 135
124
90 90
100 101107
115118
122
97
105
96
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005p
Calendar Year Accident Year
Percent
p Preliminary AY figure. Accident Year data is evaluated as of 12/31/2005 and developed to ultimateSource: Calendar Years 1994-2004, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; Calendar Year 2005p and Accident Years 1994-2005pbased on NCCI Annual Statement Analysis.Includes dividends to policyholders
Workers Comp Combined Ratios, 1994-2005P
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Lost-Time Claims
-4.2 -4.4
-9.2
-6.9-5.7
-4.3 -3.9
0.3
-6.5
-4.5
0.5
-3.9
-2.3
-4.5 -4.5
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05p
Cumulative Change of –45.8%(1991-2004)
Accident Year
Percent Change
Workers Comp Lost-TimeClaim Frequency (% Change)
2005p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20051991-2003: Based on data through 12/31/2004, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policiesSource: NCCI
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IndemnityClaim Cost (000s)
Lost-Time Claims
$9.9 $9.6 $9.4 $9.8 $10.0 $10.6$11.4
$12.4$13.6
$15.1$16.5 $16.9
$17.7$18.6 $19.1
$5
$7$9
$11
$13$15
$17
$19
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05p
Annual Change 1992–1996: +1.3%Annual Change 1997–2004: +7.4%
2005p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20051991-2004: Based on data through 12/31/2004, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policiesSource: NCCI
Accident Year
Workers Comp Indemnity Claims Costs Have Accelerated, 1993-2005p
Cumulative Change = +103.2%(1993-2005p)
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$8.3 $8.4 $8.2 $8.9 $9.4 $10.1$11.1
$12.0$13.2
$14.2$16.0
$17.4$19.0
$20.9$22.7
$5$7$9
$11$13$15$17$19$21$23
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05p
Annual Change 1992–1996: +4.1%Annual Change 1997–2005: +9.5%
Accident Year
MedicalClaim Cost ($000s)
2005p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20051991-2004: Based on data through 12/31/2004, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services; Excludes the effects of deductible policies
Workers Comp Medical Claims Continue to Climb
Cumulative Change = +176.8%(1993-2005p)
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Med Costs Share of Total Costs is Increasing Steadily
Indemnity56%
Medical44%
Source: NCCI (based on states where NCCI provides ratemaking services).
Indemnity52%
Medical48%
Indemnity42%
Medical58%1985
1995
2005p
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WC Costs Higher Than GeneralHealth Due to Price & Utilization
109%136%
120%
184%
145%
204%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Price Utilization Cost
Acute & Trauma Chronic & ComplexSource: NCCI
Workers Comp vs. Group HealthFirst Three Months Following Injury, GH = 100%
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OTHER LIABILITY
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138.6
117.6
108.5112.3
104.5110.5
122.6 124.4
111.8114.4 112.1
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Other LiabilityCombined Ratios*
Average Combined Ratio 1995-2005
116.1
Sources: A.M. Best; III *Includes Officers’ & Directors’ coverage.
Improvements in tort and D&O environment have
contributed to performance
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D&O Premium Index(1974 Average = 100)
682746 704 720 720 771 806 793
726619
539 503560
720
931
1,2371,113
1,010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
86 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Source: Tillinghast Towers-Perrin, 2005 Directors and Officers Liability Survey.
Average D&O pricing is off 18% since 2003, after rising
146% from 1999-2003
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POST-KATRINA LITIGATION
UPDATE
Insurers Are Ahead
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Post-Katrina Litigation Update
• 95% of HO claims settled as of One-Year Anniversary• About 2% in dispute (mediation/litigation) in LA/MS• Insurers have won several major decisions
Leonard v. Nationwide (vindication of agent on allegations of misrepresentation)Class Actions Contained in MS: Each case tried on its meritsMost cases no longer economical to pursue
• A.G. Hood Case Still OutstandingCase substantially weakened, though not bound by Fed court decisions
• Trial Lawyers will Try Find Better Cases, Refine Classes• Agent E&O issues still loom• Misc. commercial litigation: coverage disputes, pollution
(e.g., Murphy Oil settlement)
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Cost of U.S. Tort System($ Billions)
Source: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin.
$129$130$141$144$148$159$156$156$167$169$180$205
$233$246$260
$277$295
$314
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05E 06F 07F
Tort costs will consume an estimated 2.25% of GDP in 2006
Per capita “tort tax” was $886 in 2004, up from $680 in 2000
Reducing tort costs relative to GDP by just 0.25% (to about 2%) would
produce an economic stimulus of $27.5B
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Personal, Commercial & Self (Un) Insured Tort Costs
$78.2$106.8
$161.5 $173.3$52.0
$72.3
$84.2$86.8
$20.4
$30.0
$45.3$49.4
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
1990 2000 2003 2004
Commercial Lines Personal Lines Self (Un)Insured
Bill
ions
Total = $150.6 Billion
Source: Tillinghast-Towers Perrin
Total = $209.1 Billion
Total = $291.0 BillionTotal = $309.5 Billion
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Tort System Costs,2000-2007F
$179
$232$246
$260$277
$314$295
$206
1.83%2.03%
2.22% 2.22% 2.23% 2.27%2.25%2.23%
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
00 01 02 03 04 05E 06F 07F
Tor
t Sys
tem
Cos
ts
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Tor
t Cos
ts a
s % o
f GD
P
Tort Sytem Costs Tort Costs as % of GDP
Source: Insurance Information Institute estimates from Tillinghast-Towers Perrin methodology.
After a period of rapid escalation, tort system costs as % of GDP appear to be stabilizing
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Business Leaders Ranking of Liability Systems for 2005
Best States1. Delaware2. Nebraska3. North Dakota4. Virginia5. Iowa6. Indiana7. Minnesota8. South Dakota9. Wyoming10. Idaho
Worst States41. Hawaii42. Florida43. Arkansas44. Texas45. California46. Illinois47.Louisiana48.Alabama49. West Virginia50.Mississippi
Source: US Chamber of Commerce 2005 State Liability Systems Ranking Study; Insurance Info. Institute.
New in 2005ND, IN, SD, WY
Drop-OffsID, UT, NH, KS
NewlyNotorious
HI, FL
RisingAbove
MO, MT
LA, AL and MS’s liability systems are
ranked among the worst in the country by the US Chamber of Commerce
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The Nation’s Judicial Hellholes(2005)
Source: American Tort Reform Association; Insurance Information Institute
TEXASRio Grande
Valley and Gulf Coast
South Florida
ILLINOISCook County
Madison CountySt. Clair County
West Virginia
There were notably fewer “Judicial
Hellholes” in 2005
Dishonorable Mention
WI Supreme Ct.Watch ListCalifornia
Eastern KentuckyEastern Alabama
PhiladelphiaNew Mexico
DelawareOklahoma
Orleans Parish, LAWashington, DC
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Non-Admitted & Reinsurance Reform ActA Step in the
Right Direction
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Summary of Nonadmitted & Reinsurance Reform Act (HR 5637)
• NRRA Passed by House 9/28/06 by unanimous 417-0 vote; Senate prospects uncertain.
• Gives exclusive regulatory authority to insured’s home state forplacement of nonadmitted insurance
• Establish uniform system for collection/allocation of premium tax obligations related to nonadmitted insurance
• Establishes uniform standards for surplus lines eligibility• Pre-empts state diligent search requirements for sophisticated
commercial buyers• Makes ceding insurer’s state of domicile the single point of
regulation with respect to credit for reinsurance• Prevents states from applying laws in extra-territorial manner• Creates uniformity in reinsurer solvency regulation based on
NAIC accreditation requirementsSource: LeBoeuf, Lamb, Greene & MacRae LLP, Oct. 4, 2006.
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Gross Surplus Lines Premiums Written (Non-Admitted GPW)
$ Billions
$28.8
$33.2$34.9
$25
$27
$29
$31
$33
$35
$37
03 04 05Source: Business Insurance, Sept. 11, 2006; Insurance Information Institute.
The importance of Surplus Lines is demonstrated by much faster growth than for the overall P/C
insurance industry
+$4.4B+21.4%
+$1.7B+5.3%
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Optional Federal Charter (OFC)
A Divisive Issue
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Optional Federal Charter• Legislation introduced in the House (National
Insurance Act) in Sept. 2006 by Rep. Edward Royce (R-CA); Similar legislation introduced earlier in 2006 Senate by John Sununu (R-NH) and Tim Johnson (D-SD)
• General agreement that current system is inefficient, expensive, duplicative and stifles innovation
• OFC appears to be gaining some traction, but new Congress and change in party in House implies need for a great deal of education as general awareness of industry issues remains low
• OFC still probably 2+ years awaySource: Insurance Information Institute.
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TRIA EXTENSION
The Burden Grows, and the Clock is Ticking
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Terrorism Coverage Take-Up Rate Continues to Rise
Source: Narketwatch: Terrorism Insurance 2006, Marsh, Inc.; Insurance Information Institute
24% 26%33%
44% 46% 44%48% 47%
54%59%
64%
03Q2 03Q3 03Q4 04Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 05Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4
Terrorism take-up rate for non-WC risk rose steadily
through 2003, 2004 and 2005
TAKE UP RATE FOR WC COMP TERROR
COVERAGE IS 100%!!
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Terrorism Insurance Take-Up Rates by Region
26% 30%22% 19%
53%
67%
50%
34%
47%53% 53%
58%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Midwest Northeast South West
The Northeast has the highest take-up rate of any region
Source: Narketwatch: Terrorism Insurance 2006, Marsh, Inc.; Insurance Information Institute
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Terrorism Premium as a Percent of Property Premium by Region
3.8%4.2% 3.9% 4.1%
5.4%4.7%
3.3%
4.8%4.4%
3.9%4.5%4.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Midwest Northeast South West
Northeast pricing is higher, reflecting risk
Source: Narketwatch: Terrorism Insurance 2006, Marsh, Inc.; Insurance Information Institute
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Insurance Industry Retention Under TRIA ($ Billions)
$10.0$12.5
$15.0
$25.0$27.5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Year 1(2003)
Year 2(2004)
Year 3(2005)
Year 4(2006)
Year 5(2007)
$ B
illio
ns
Source: Insurance Information Institute
•Individual company retentions rise to 17.5%
in 2006, 20% in 2007•Above the retention,
federal govt. pays 90% in 2006, 85% in 2007
Extension
Congress & Administration
want TRIA dead
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Insured Loss Estimates: Large CNBR Terrorist Attack ($ Bill)
0.40.80.61.0Auto
$42.3$171.2$196.8$778.1TOTAL
4.135.531.5158.3Commercial Prop.
2.622.612.738.7Residential Prop.
31.487.5126.7483.7Workers Comp
0.43.22.914.4General Liability
$3.4$21.5$22.5$82.0Group Life
Des Moines
San FranciscoWashingtonNew YorkType of Coverage
Source: American Academy of Actuaries, Response to President’s Working Group, Appendix II, April 26, 2006.
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Insured Loss Estimates: Medium CNBR Terrorist Attack ($ Bill)
0.40.80.60.2Auto
$27.3$92.2$106.2$446.5TOTAL
4.135.531.577.8Commercial Prop.
2.622.612.710.3Residential Prop.
31.487.5126.7313.2Workers Comp
0.43.22.97.3General Liability
$3.4$21.5$22.5$37.7Group Life
Des Moines
San FranciscoWashingtonNew YorkType of Coverage
Source: American Academy of Actuaries, Response to President’s Working Group, Appendix II, April 26, 2006.
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Insured Loss Estimates: Truck Bomb Terrorist Attack ($ Bill)
0.00.00.00.0Auto
$3.0$8.8$5.5$11.8TOTAL
1.23.92.16.8Commercial Prop.
0.00.00.00.0Residential Prop.
1.53.92.83.5Workers Comp
0.20.70.41.2General Liability
$0.1$0.3$0.2$0.3Group Life
Des Moines
San FranciscoWashingtonNew YorkType of Coverage
Source: American Academy of Actuaries, Response to President’s Working Group, Appendix II, April 26, 2006.
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$169
$151
$140
$145
$150
$155
$160
$165
$170
$175
2004 2006E
$ B
illio
ns
Shrinkage in 2006 (-11%) surplus is due to elimination
of several lines covered under TRIA though 2005 but
dropped under the Act’s extension effective 1/1/06
*2006 figure uses 2005 estimated year-end surplus and premiums by line as basis for calculations.Source: Insurance Information Institute.
(Billions of Dollars)
Surplus Under TRIA/TRIEA Covered Lines
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Summary• Personal & Commercial lines picture is very bright for
2006, assuming “normal” CAT loss activity• Concern about pricing discipline in some some
commercial lines, including casualty segments• Rising investment returns insufficient to support deep
soft market in terms of price, terms & conditions• Clear need to remain underwriting focused• How/where to deploy/redeploy capital??• Major Challenges:
Slow Growth Environment AheadMaintaining price/underwriting disciplineManaging variability/volatility of results
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Insurance Information Institute On-Line
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