Challenges and Opportunities in
Global Raw Materials Market
Barbaros COREKOGLUMarkets, Trade & Sustainability
28 June 2016Porto, Portugal
Outline
• COCERAL facts and figures
• Global Market Situation – Global Weather Conditions
– Global Grain Supply and Demand
– Grain Stocks and Prices
• European Union – General picture: Grain Production, Exports and Stocks; import needs
• Global Developments
• Challenges to Sourcing & Alternatives
• Policy Challenges
TEXT HERE
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30 Member Associations 19 EU countries2 Associated: Switzerland and Serbia2700 companies
26 Member Associations 18 EU countries
Associated Members- Switzerland- Serbia- Euromalt- Euromaisiers
1 Extraordinary Member- Gafta
3500 Companies
EU association representing the trade with cereals, oilseeds, rice, feedstuffs, olive oil and agrosupply
Grain merchants, storekeeper and/or international traders
4
Seasonal temperature anomaly during yield formation
Source: Thomson Reuters
2016 Global Outlook for Crops
Global Grain Supply and Demand
Source: IGC May Report
Global Market Situation World: Grain Stocks and Stocks-To-Use
15.3%
35.5%
31.7%
17.0%
22.2%24.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
72/7
3
74/7
5
76/7
7
78/7
9
80/8
1
82/8
3
84/8
5
86/8
7
88/8
9
90/9
1
92/9
3
94/9
5
96
/97
98/9
9
00/0
1
02/0
3
04/0
5
06/0
7
08/0
9
10/1
1
12
/13
14/1
5
16/1
7
Mio
. t
Endbestand (Mio. t)
Verhältnis Endbestand zumVerbrauch, %
Global Ending Stocks Converging…
Source: World Agri S&D Estimates, June, FAS
EU Grains:Competitive and very comfortable situation
(mln t)
31 2742 44
30 30 25 27 34 35 34
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Production
Exports
Ending Stocks
EU Oilseeds:Structural deficit continues (mln t)
Production: 33 million tonnes (of which 22 mln tonnes of rapeseed) Imports: 16 million tonnes (of which 13 mln tonnes of soybeans) + circa. 19 million tonnes of soybean meal per annum
Changing times, challenging times…
Bigger, but slower…
9.7 billion by 2050
Trade – ever more important…
…at times of shifting sands
China policies build stocks
Source: USDA
Russia emerging as exporter
…at times of shifting sands
Brazil exports revised upwards
Source: USDA
“Stock” Taking• Climate change & increased weather variability
• Limited new land area & no deforestation
• Embracing new technologies
– Improve plants’ resistance to increased pest hazards including weeds, insects, disease and too wet, too dry, too cold, too hot
• Zero threshold and tolerance
– Zero tolerance policy and asynchronous authorizations bear unbearable legal compliance risks
– 1 incident = 50,000 tons corn/soy shipment = circa €25 ml loss
• Increased financial risk
– Increased scrutiny & limitations to hedging
• Letting trade work for the collective benefit
– Low level presence
• Electrification of vehicles vs. animal feed
• Global gap in digestibility of meals
COCERAL:
Working together to make trade work
Thank you for your attentionWebsite: http://www.coceral.com
E-mail: [email protected]