Celebrating Our Progress – Confronting Our Challenges
Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention
Center for Enforcing Underage Drinking Laws 3rd Annual National Leadership ConferenceSeptember 19 – 22, 2002 – Dallas, Texas
Robert I. Reynolds, DirectorCenter for Policy Analysis and Training
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation
Question:
Underage Drinking in the United States is:
A. At epidemic proportions
B. Steadily declining
ATOD consumption has declined over the past 20
years.Alcohol consumption is down.
Tobacco consumption is down.
Other Drug use is down.
Tobacco use has declined.
Age 1985 1998 Percent Reduction
12-17 29.4% 18.2% 38%
18-25 47.4% 41.6% 12%
26-34 54.7% 32.5% 40%
35-up 35.5% 25.1% 29%
All ages (1980-1994)
1980:
33.2%1994:
25.5%23%
Percent reductions in monthly tobacco use by age group (1985 to 1998)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1983 1985 1987 1988 1990 1992 1994
Smokers account for a smaller percentage of the population.
Smokers as a percentage of US adult population, 1980-1994.
Illicit drug use has decreased.
Age 1979 1998 Percent Reduction
12-17 16.5% 9.9% 39%
18-25 38% 16.1% 58%
26-34 20.8% 7% 66%
35-up 2.8% 3.3% (18)%
Percent reductions in monthly illicit drug use by age group (1979 to 1998)
Alcohol consumption has decreased in the past 20 years...
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Beer Wine Spirits All beverages
Per capita consumption (gallons of ethanol) 1970-97
Alcohol consumption has decreased in the past 20 years... Reduction in per capita consumption
1980-1998 (gallons of pure ethanol)
1980 1998 Percent Reduction
Beer 1.38 1.25 9%
Wine 0.34 0.31 9%
Spirit 1.04 0.63 39%
All Beverages
2.76 2.19 21%
Percent Reduction: Monthly Alcohol Use, 1979-1998
Age 1979 1998 Percent Reduction
12-17 49.6% 19.6% 62%
18-25 75.1% 60.0% 20%
26-34 71.6% 60.9% 15%
35-up 59.7% 53.1% 11%
…and fewer youth are drinking now versus twenty
years ago.
Vehicle registrations have steadily increased …
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
Vehicle Registrations
…but traffic crashes and fatalities have
decreased.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Crashes Fatalities Alcohol-related fatalities
Absolute numbers of traffic crashes, fatalities, and alcohol related fatalities (1977-1999)
In particular, fewer fatalities
are alcohol-related.
25
30
35
40
45
Percent alcohol-related
Percentage traffic fatalities related to alcohol(1977-1999)
What these successes have in common:
• changes in Social Norms
• policy interventions
• deterrence and enforcement
Changes in Social Norms
Media Advocacy:
• “If you’re not in the news, you don’t exist”
• Media Advocacy is the strategic use of media to advance a social or public policy goal
• Media Advocacy is “Earned Media”
Policy Interventions
• To prevent underage drinking, policy interventions must focus on the Availability of alcohol to youth.
• Effective policies address the–Price–Place–Product–Promotion…
…of alcohol to youth
Deterrence and Enforcement
• Effective Deterrence requires the Perception of
• Certainty• Swiftness• Severity
• Active Enforcement is a Requirement for Effective Deterrence.
Drinking in America: Myths, Realities,
and Prevention Policy
Center for Enforcing the Underage Drinking Laws
(CEUDL)
CEUDL
Revised to reflect 1999 survey data
Myths about alcohol suggest alcohol is an “integral part of American life”.
CEUDL
“…the vast majority of consumers drink responsibly and in
moderation…”
From an industry website:
The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.
Adults: Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.
Youth: Most young people do not drink.
Prevention Policy: There is widespread support for policies
to reduce alcohol-related harm.CEUDL
The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.
Adults: Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.
CEUDL
Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.
CEUDL
51%
25%
12%7% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0 1 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 21 21+
Frequency of Drinking Among U.S. Adults 21 and Older(past 30 days)
Most adults do not drink at a hazardous level.
CEUDL
51%
29%
6%
14%Nondrinker
Nonbingers
Infrequent Bingers
Frequent Bingers
Drinking Patterns among U.S. Adults 21 and Older(past 30 days)
Alcohol sales depend on the heaviest drinkers.
CEUDL
6%14%
29%
50%
33%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
FrequentBingers
InfrequentBingers
Non-bingers
Population
Alcohol
Alcohol Consumed by Drinking Pattern Among Adult Drinkers
(past 30 days)
Binge drinkers are 20% of the population, but consume 83% of the
alcohol.
CEUDL
20%
83%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Population Alcohol
Binge Drinkers
CEUDL
The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.
Youth: Most young people do not drink.
Most young people do not drink.
CEUDL
15- to 17-year-olds 18- to 20-year-olds
Drinking occasions
0 1 to 4 5 or more
Drinking Among Youth(past 30 days)
94%
12- to 14-year-olds
17%
75%
8%
52%
25%
23%
Youth who do drink tend to drink heavily.
CEUDL0 At least 1
Binge Drinking Occasions:
49%35% 29%
65% 71%
51%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
12- to 14- year-olds
15- to 17- year-olds
18- to 20- year-olds
Drinking Patterns Among Youth Who Drink(past 30 days)
Young bingers consume the majority of the
alcohol for their age group.
CEUDL
15- to 17-year-olds 18- to 20-year-olds
Nonbingers Infrequent Bingers
Frequent Bingers
Percentage of Drinks Consumed by Drinking Pattern Among Underage Drinkers
94%
12- to 14-year-olds
34%
62%
4%
26%
70%
4%
45%
12- to 14-year-olds
8%
47%
Fewer youth drink, compared to adults.
CEUDL
6%25%
48% 49%
94%75%
52% 51%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
12- to 14-year-olds
15- to 17-year-olds
18- to 20-year-olds
Adults
Comparison of drinking patterns for adult and underage drinkers (past 30 days)
Nondrinkers Drinkers
Young drinkers tend to drink more heavily than adult drinkers.
CEUDL
Comparison of drinking patterns for adult and underage drinkers (past 30 days)
Nonbingers Bingers
51%65% 71%
41%
49%35% 29%
59%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
12- to 14-year-olds
15- to 17-year-olds
18- to 20-year-olds
Adults
Policy Interventions
• To prevent underage drinking, policy interventions must focus on the Availability of alcohol to youth.
• Effective policies address the–Price–Place–Product–Promotion…
…of alcohol to youth
The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.
Prevention Policy: There is widespread support for policies
to reduce alcohol-related harm.
CEUDL
Alcohol is cheap and becoming cheaper.
CEUDL
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
1970 1980 1990 1997
Rel
ativ
e P
rice
(19
70=
$1.0
0) Alcohol
CPI
Non-Alcohol
Price of Alcoholic Beverages versus Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Consumer Price Index
Most Americans support an increase in taxes on alcohol.
CEUDL
82%
18%
Favor
Oppose
Increase alcohol tax by 5 cents to fund prevention programs?
Americans are bombarded with $4 billion in alcohol marketing every year.
CEUDL
New alcohol products cater to youthful tastes and may promote underage
drinking.
CEUDL
Alcopops appeal to younger drinkers.
Most Americans support restrictions on alcohol advertising.
CEUDL
79%
21%
Favor
Oppose
Restrict alcohol ads to make drinking less appealing to youth?
Alcohol is one of the most readily available consumer products.
CEUDL
Most Americans support compliance check programs.
CEUDL
66%
34%Favor
Oppose
Conduct compliance checks to reduce illegal sales to minors?
Most Americans support keg registration laws.
CEUDL
61%
39% Favor
Oppose
Require registration of beer kegs?
Most Americans support restrictions on drinking in public locations.
CEUDL
010203040506070
Ban Drinking By Permit Only No restrictions
Percent of U.S. population (18+) favoring restrictions on drinking in public locations
The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.
Adults: Most adults do not drink or drink infrequently.
Youth: Most young people do not drink.
Prevention Policy: There is widespread support for policies
to reduce alcohol-related harm.CEUDL
The real picture of “Drinking in America” is much different.
CEUDL
Youth who drink tend to drink heavily, putting them at high risk of serious harm.
In Order to Continue Our Progress and to Confront Our Challenges
We Must:
– Utilize Media Advocacy to change Social Norms.
– Adopt Policies impacting the Price, Place, Product, and Promotion of alcohol availability to youth.
– Increase Deterrence and Enforcement.