Cannabis revenues as temptation goods
Rob MacCounStanford Law School
Jon’s talk: Some key points
National legalization, probably on the alcohol model, is very likely
Long-run consumption may (at least) double
Prices matter
Quantity consumed matters more than how many consume
Lots of policy levers – are we using them to learn what works?
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Nat’l legalization inevitable?
Still 46 states to go (45.5 since DC halfway there)
President Cruz might put a stop to it. So might President Ryan. Even President Clinton. Or Republican-led House and Senate.
CO and WA and OR and AK could “blow it”
If consumption or harms start “spiraling out of control”
Headline: “Carload of Utah high school football players in fatal crash after drug holiday”
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True, but boomer’s support
dropped a lot in 1980-1990
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Easing budget pressures could reduce push for pot revenues
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Effects in CO, WA?Caveat emptor
If you want to dismiss opponents’ claims, ought to hold yourself to same standard of evidence
May take many years to assess effects
Retailers have many steps to get licensed
Legal production has to reach scale
Short term “nostalgia” and curiosity purchases
Prices may fall over time (perhaps a lot)
Dutch marijuana use told different stories in 1979 vs. 1992 vs. 2008
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On doubling
With respect to prevalence, we know what a doubling looks like: 1979
My students are usually stunned to learn this.
With respect to consumption, would be entirely new territory
My students already have seen a lot more daily and heavy use than my cohort saw.
Jon suggests we might see 40 billion additional hours of intoxication
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Fundamental tradeoff
Legalization reduces average harm per dose (medical, crime, etc.)
Legalization increases number of doses consumed
Net effect (harm/dose x doses) is unknown
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Legalization and average harm
In Drug War Heresies, Reuter and I predicted that after legalization, the average user would be a less risky user.
Influx of users who wouldn’t use because it was illegal.
No longer sure we were right.
We were focused on prevalence (who uses)
Might be swamped by increasing riskiness of existing users and new products (vaping, dabs, edibles)
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What strains with the High Times Cannabis Cup?
Cannabis Cup
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All finalists exceed federal potency estimates
Trend toward higher THC
1st place winners have higher THC and lower CBD
SimSemilla model
Users (count)• Occasional• Monthly• Weekly• Daily
Grams/day(per type)
Days-useddistribution
Grams/yeardistribution
Harm incidents per year:• Overall• by User type• Gini & skew
Grams/daydistribution
p(harm|dose)
Dose-harmfunction:• Ceiling• Shape• Threshold
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