Download - CAMS GA Regional Performance
Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016
Matthieu Plu (Météo-France) and colleagues from Météo-France, INERIS, KNMI, CNRS-LA and IUP-Bremen
How do regional products perform?
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Plan
How are regional products evaluated?How do regional forecasts perform?How do regional analyses perform?How do regional re-analyses perform?Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
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How are regional products evaluated?
MonitoringFiltering
Verificationof regional CAMS products(NRT forecasts, analyses,re-analyses)
Surface observations from EIONET- « Near-Real time » (NRT) dataflow- A posteriori validated dataflow Data assimilation
in regional models(NRT analyses,re-analyses)
OzoneNO2SO2CO
PM10PM2.5
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How are regional products evaluated?
• Statistical indicators (bias, root-mean square error, correlation, FGE) are reported on the regional CAMS webpages and in quarterly (seasonal) reports,
• Scores computed for all models, and for the ENSEMBLE,
www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com
Ensemble and observationsof ozone concentrationson 03.07.2015 at 15 UTC
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How do regional forecasts perform?
• Performance of near-real time (NRT) forecasts of ozone during summer:
ENSEMBLEbi
asrm
se
corr
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ion
Members
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How do regional forecasts perform?
mod
ified
bia
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rmse
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• Performance of NRT ensemble forecasts of PM10 during winter:
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How do regional analyses perform?
• Quarterly r.m.s.e of the ENSEMBLE ozone daily maximum: Ozone
Forecasts
~ 13 µg.m-3
Analyses~ 8 µg.m-3
(verification done against un-assimilated observations)
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Plan
How are regional products evaluated?How do regional forecasts perform?How do regional analyses perform?How do regional re-analyses perform?Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
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How do regional re-analyses perform?• ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation,• Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with
statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3 categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban).
Ozone
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How do regional re-analyses perform?• ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation,• Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with
statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3 categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban).
PM10
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How do regional re-analyses perform?
• Scores are also described over 5 main European sub-regions:• EUW (western), EUC (central), EUN (Northern), EUE
(Eastern), EUS (Southern)
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How do regional re-analyses perform?
• Assessment of the ability to detect threshold (daily exceedances for ozone and PM10)
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Plan
How are regional products evaluated?How do regional forecasts perform?How do regional analyses perform?How do regional re-analyses perform?Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
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Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles
Observations considered:IAGOS aircraft O3, COOzone sondesMAX-DOAS NO2 (SO2, HCHO, Aerosol)Lidar and Ceilometer aerosol profilesTotal AODHigh-altitude in-situ observations
Satellite NO2, CO, O3Comparisons between global & regional analyses
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Additional validation of regional products: example
Anne Blechschmidt, IUP-Bremen
MAX-DOAS, De Bilt
MAX-DOAS: NO2 vertical column
Ensemble
Members
Hannah Clark, CNRS-LA
IAGOS profiles vs Members
Ozone CO
Hour of the day
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Conclusion
• Validation of all regional products publicly available in reports and website: www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com
• New: validation of regional products above the surface,
• Evaluation is important for users,
• Evaluation is also important for the service providers to to identify shortcomings and improve their products.