California Refinery Crude Oil Sources and Trends
OSPR TAC Informational Meeting on Non-Floating Oil
Sacramento, CA
November 15, 2017
Gordon Schremp
Energy Assessments Division
California Energy Commission
Presentation Topics
• Crude oil trends and sources
• Transportation of crude oil
• California refinery operations
• Ability to track crude oil movements
11/15/2017 2
11/15/2017 3
1,095,064
1,219,008
2,568,085
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
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-07
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Bakken Eagle Ford
Permian
Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report
U.S. Oil Production by Shale Basin
11/15/2017 4
Development of tight or shale oil formations through improved drilling techniques and hydraulic fracturing has resulted in a crude oil renaissance for the United States.
3 U.S. fields - Combined 4.882 MM BPD
Currently, 2nd highest daily production in world.
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Day
US Crude Oil Production Alaska
North Dakota Texas
California + OCS Rest of US
New Mexico Colorado
Oklahoma
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
9.203 million barrels per day
3.366 million barrels per day
Chart peak of 9.627 million barrels per day - Apr. 2015All-time peak of 10.044 million barrels per day - Nov. 1970
1.068 million barrels per day
U.S. Gulf of Mexico hurricane impacts
U.S. Crude Oil Production – Jan. ‘81-Aug. ‘17
11/15/2017 5
California production stays above Alaska.
2,267
833
292 317 288
130
-126-189
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Texas North Dakota New Mexico Oklahoma Colorado Rest of U.S. California Alaska
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f B
arre
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er D
ayChange in Crude Oil ProductionJanuary 2010 vs. August 2017
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. crude oil production has changed from 5.390 million barrels per day in January 2010 to 9.203 million barrels per day during August 2017
U.S. crude oil production has decreased 0.423 million barrels per day from the peak in April 2015
11/15/2017 6
California & Alaska oil production continue declining.
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Other Countries
Central & South America
Europe
Asia
Canada
Export restrictions lifted.
Record level of 1.116 million barrels per day exported.
Crude Oil Exports
Source: Energy Information Administration
11/15/2017
2017 Y-T-D exports averaging 896 TBD, 51.3 percent higher than same period last year.
7
No exports from California.
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186
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Mil
lio
ns o
f B
arr
els
per
Year
Cumulative Crude Oil Production29.76 Billion Barrels, Equivalent to 10.1Months of 2016 Global Demand of 96.60
Million Barrels Per Day
Peaked in 1985 at 424 Million Barrels
194 Million Barrels in 2016
California Oil Production (1865 to 2016)
Sources: California Division of Oil, Gas, and Geothermal Resources (DOGGR) and the California Energy Commission.
11/15/2017 8
Crude oil production for over 150 years in California. Declining output now at a level last seen in 1934.
California & Other Domestic Lower 48
Sources
Alaska
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
198
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Mill
ion
s o
f B
arre
ls
Foreign
54.5 %
11.4 %
328.5 Million Barrels
34.1 %
68.8 Million Barrels
205.6 Million Barrels
California Refinery Oil Sources (1982–2016)
Sources: DOGGR, Energy Information Administration, Class 1 Railroads and the California Energy Commission.
11/15/2017 9
1.65 million barrels per day in 2016 – foreign receipts expected to grow.
0
50,000
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Th
ou
san
ds
of B
arr
els
pe
r Y
ea
rTOTAL C_B_RAIL
OTHER DOMESTICMARINE
ALASKA
SAUDI ARABIA
ECUADOR
IRAQ
COLOMBIA
BRAZIL
ANGOLA
INDONESIA
MEXICO
KUWAIT
CANADA
ALL OTHERS
Annual Crude Oil Imports into California
Sources: Energy Information Administration and the California Energy Commission.
11/15/2017 10
Diversity of foreign sources increasing.
11/15/2017 11
Near-source countries (North & South America) 45 percent of totals.
2.24%
41.33%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f To
tal F
ore
ign
Imp
ort
s
Northern California Califiornia United States
Canadian Crude Oil Imports –California & SF Bay Area
11/15/2017 12
Contrary to the national trend, California refiners have collectively not been increasing their diet of Canadian crude oils. The trend appears to be declining since 2010. Even if greater use of Canadian oil occurs over time, refiners are expected to offset with other types of oil to maintain consistent average blended properties.
Source: Energy Information Administration
11/15/2017 13
Diversity of Oil Movement
11/15/2017 14
Crude Oil - Marine Movements
• 66.1 percent of crude oil transported by marine vessel in 2016• Foreign sourced – 901.5 TBD (54.8 percent)
• Alaska sourced – 185.4 TBD (11.3 percent)
11/15/2017 15
SF Bay Area refineries received 64.6 percent via marine vessel during 2016.• Foreign sourced – 384.3 TBD (55.7 percent)• Alaska sourced – 61.3 TBD (8.9 percent)
Source: Quazoo.com.
Chevron - Richmond Long Wharf
Crude Oil - Marine Movements
11/15/2017 16
Southern California refineries received 67.2 percent via marine vessel during 2016.• Foreign sourced – 517.2 TBD (54.2 percent)• Alaska sourced – 124.1 TBD (13.0 percent)
Source: General Steamship Agencies – Oil tanker Nissos Kythnos operated by Andeavor Maritime.
California Oil Sources – Pipelines
11/15/2017
• 33.5 percent of crude oil received by all California refineries transported via pipelines – 551.0 thousand barrels per day during 2016
• SF Bay Area refineries received 243.9 thousand barrels per day of CA crude oil via three main trunk lines from southern San Joaquin Valley – 35.4 percent of total receipts during 2016
• Southern California & Bakersfield refineries received 307.1 thousand barrels per day of CA crude via local & main trunk lines from southern San Joaquin Valley – 32.2 percent of total receipts during 2016
17
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. Pro
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Day
National CBR Movements
Percentage of U.S. Production
Source: Energy Information Administration
1.97 percent of U.S. production as of Aug. 2017. Excludes Canadian import movements.
CBR national movements include oil from U.S. production & Canadian rail imports.
Crude Oil Transportation by Rail Tank Car
11/15/2017 18
Expanded crude oil pipeline takeaway capacity has allowed oil producers to shift away from more expensive rail transport back to pipeline movements. Domestic oil “discounts” have narrowed.
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Canada CBR Movements
Percentage of U.S. CBR Movements
37.7 percent of national CBR activity consisted of Canadian rail importsas of August 2017.
Canadian Rail Imports vs. U.S. CBR Activity
11/15/2017 19
Source: Energy Commission analysis of data from the Energy Information Administration.
Western Canada – Heavy vs. Light
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
11/15/2017 20
90.3 percent growth from heavy oil.
Canadian Crude Oil Pipelines
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
11/15/2017 21
Existing Pipeline Takeaway Capacity vs. Crude Oil Forecast for Western Canada
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
11/15/2017 22
Future supply growth that exceeds pipeline takeaway capacity would need to be exported via rail tank car.
Canadian - Pipeline Expansions
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
11/15/2017 23
October 5, 2017 – TransCanada announces termination of project.
Nebraska Public Service Commission to vote of application on November 20, 2017.
Washington Crude-by-Rail
11/15/2017 24
Current receipt capability - 318,000 barrels per day (BPD)Projects seeking permits (SP) - 409,000 BPDCancelled projects (CP) - 192,000 BPD
WA Crude Oil Imports Via Rail Tank Cars
11/15/2017 25
Source: Washington Department of Ecology.
Washington refiners received approximately 25 percent of their oil via rail last year.Tesoro-Savage project, if approved and constructed, could be used to supply CA refiners with additional quantities of crude oil from Canada and domestic sources.
Rail routes used for year ending September 30, 2017.
WA Crude Oil Imports Via Rail Tank Cars
11/15/2017 26
Source: Morningstar Commodities Research – January 5, 2017.
Balance of crude oil delivered to Washington refineries transported via pipelines and marine tankers primarily sourced from Alaska with declining waterborne movements from non-Canadian foreign sources.
Source: Pacific States-British Columbia Oil Spill Task Force 2017 Annual Report.
California Crude-by-Rail
11/15/2017 27
2016 CBR volumes 2.345 million barrels or 6.4 thousand barrels per day, only 6.0 percent of capacity.
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Bar
rels
Pe
r M
on
th
Canada
Colorado
New Mexico
North Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
Other Lower 48 States
Source: CaliforniaEnergy Commission
11/15/2017 28
Y-T-D CBR numbers up 116 percent compared to 2016 (1,769,587 barrels versus 819,237 barrels).
2017 Y-T-D CBR deliveries averaging 6.5 TBD – less than 0.4 percent of total supply.
CA Crude Oil Imports Via Rail Tank Cars
11/15/2017 29
Refineries – Historical Changes
11/15/2017 30
• Initial refining operations date to 1870s
• 1982 – 40 operating refineries• 2.565 MM barrels per day (b/d) capacity
• 61.8 percent utilization rate
• 956 thousand b/d gasoline
• 241 thousand b/d distillates
• 184 thousand b/d jet fuel
• 2016 – 15 operating refineries• 1.884 MM barrels per day (b/d) capacity
• 85.6 percent utilization rate
• 1,007 thousand b/d gasoline
• 360 thousand b/d distillates
• 281 thousand b/d jet fuel
• Increased complexity & higher utilization rates enable even greater fuel output with 62 percent fewer facilities
Source: SCV History.com
Pioneer Oil Refinery – Newhall - Circa 1877
California Refineries - Overview
• Refineries are a primary hub of logistical activity
• 15 refineries processed 1.644 million barrels per day of crude oil during 2016
• 13 facilities produced California fuels
• Crude oil during 2016 received by• Marine vessels (foreign) – 901.5 TBD
• Marine vessels (Alaska) – 185.4 TBD
• California source via pipelines – 550.8 TBD
• Rail/truck – 6.4 TBD
• Process units operate continuously at or near maximum capacity, except during periods of planned maintenance or unplanned outages
11/15/2017 31
CARB Compliant Gasoline42.90%
Conventional Gasoline5.19%
Other RBOB0.51%
CARB Diesel13.37%
EPA Diesel3.90%
Other Diesel0.12%
Commercial Jet Fuel13.25%
Military Jet Fuel0.30%
Other Products4.05%
Asphalt & Road Oil 0.74%
Residual Fuel Oil2.41%
Liquified Refinery Gases 2.69%
Still Gas4.30%
Petroleum Coke6.28%
Other20.47%
*Note: Does not include ethanol.
Product Slate of California Refineries (2016)
Source: California Energy Commission
11/15/2017 32
Refinery Locations – Northern California
Sources: Oil Change International map, Energy Information Administration refinery data, and Energy Commission analysis
11/15/2017 33
Processed 689.5 thousand barrels per day of crude oil during 2016.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe
Union Pacific
1
2
3
4
5
6
Refinery Locations – Southern California
Crude Oil
Processing
Marker Capacity
Number Refinery BPCD
1 Chevron - El Segundo 269,000
2 PBF Energy - Torrance 149,500
3 Phillips 66 - Wilmington 139,000
4 Tesoro - Carson 257,300
5 Tesoro - Wilmington 104,500
6 Valero - Wilmington 85,000
BPCD = Barrels Per Calendar Day
Sources: Oil Change International base map, Energy Information Administration refinery data and California Energy Commission analysis.
11/15/2017 34
Processed 954.7 thousand barrels per day of crude oil during 2016.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
25.00
25.20
25.40
25.60
25.80
26.00
26.20
26.40
26.60
26.80
27.00
1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70
AP
I Gra
vity
Sulfur Weight Percent
SF Bay Area Refineries – Crude Oil Properties
11/15/2017 35
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of PIIRA data
Average crude oil properties for all of the SF Bay Area refineries (combined) has become slightly lighter in density and slightly higher in sulfur content. The higher the API gravity number, the lower the density.
Refinery Operations - Crude Oil Blending
• As a general practice, refiners blend various types of crude oil together prior to processing in their facility for purposes of maintaining a steady overall quality of crude oil that helps to better control refinery operations and regulation the different ratios and types of transportation fuels produced from one month to the next
• Although the year-to-year variability of the average sulfur and density properties does shift, the degree of change is rather modest when the scale is adjusted to include properties of various types of Canadian crude oil processed in the SF Bay Area
11/15/2017 36
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
AP
I Gra
vity
Sulfur Weight Percent
Annual averages for 2006 thru 2016.
Canadian Crude Oil Import Properties versus Annual Refinery Variability
11/15/2017 37
Sources: California Energy Commission analysis of PIIRA and EIA data
A meaningful shift of the average blended properties envelope would be infeasible without significant modifications to existing refineries, absent any deleterious impacts on refined product slate and economics. 2016 data point is denoted by red marker.
No Canadian crude oil imports with API gravity of less than 10. All 2016 imports were lighter than water but some were likely heavy crude blended with diluents.
11/15/2017 38
CEC Data Collection
• California Energy Commission obtains confidential information from various industry stakeholders on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis
• Reporting is mandatory and involves variety of forms
11/15/2017 39
Limited crude oil property data
Crude Oil – Information Sources
• Monthly Energy Information Administration (EIA) Form 810– Only sulfur and API gravity (density) for ALL receipts for month
– Due up to 45 days after the end of each month
• EIA Company Level Foreign Imports– Crude oil imports by CA location – not always accurate
– API gravity & sulfur content by each delivery
– No crude oil “type” or name, just source country
– Due up to 45 days after the end of each month
11/15/2017 40
Crude Oil – Information Sources
• EIA Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition Report (EIA-856)– Crude oil “type” from list of crude stream codes
– Vessel name and discharge/load marine terminal
– API gravity data included on form for each cargo
– Sulfur content from stream code list
– Due within 30 days after the end of each month
11/15/2017 41
Version No.: 20010.01
Page of
EIA ID NUMBER:
Report Period:
Date submitted:
(d) (e) (f) (h) (I) (k) (m) (n) (o) (p)Port Date of Con- Acquisi- Other Landed
Date of of Landing tract/Point tion Price Cost Cost DaysCrude Type Gravity Loading Desti- (YYMM) Code ($/BBLs) ($/BBL) ($/BBL) Credit N
(YYMMDD) nation
Form Approved
MONTHLY FOREIGN CRUDE OIL ACQUISITION REPORT
FORM EIA-856
PART III. TRANSACTIONS
OMB Number: 1905-0174
Expiration Date: 12/31/2012
(l)(c) (j)Volume
Loading
(BBLs)Acquired
Trans-
Country/ Port
ber action
Num- Trans- Crude Code of
(g)
action
(a) (b)
VesselType of
Name of Vendor
(q)
Crude Oil – Information Sources
• CEC Monthly Import/Export Form 700– Crude oil imports by source, foreign and domestic, marine and rail
– Vessel name and discharge/load marine terminal
– API gravity & sulfur content not included
– No crude oil “type” or name
– Due up to 45 days after the end of each month
• PIERS Proprietary Monthly Import/Export Data– Crude oil imports by foreign source, no domestic movements
– Vessel name and discharge/load marine terminal
– API gravity & sulfur content not included
– No crude oil “type” or name
– Due up to 45 days after the end of each month
11/15/2017 42
Crude Oil – Information Sources
• California State Lands Commission– Petroleum products & renewable fuels
– Vessel name and discharge/load marine terminal
– API gravity & sulfur content not included for crude oil
– No crude oil “type” or name
– No point of origin data
– Includes both foreign and domestic movements
• Class 1 railroad monthly reports to CEC– Petroleum products & renewable fuels
– Loading state or province & California delivery location
– API gravity & sulfur content not included for crude oil
– Volume provided by individual rail tank car – but not weight of cargo
11/15/2017 43
2015 2016
Crude Oil Marketing Name Type of Crude Oil Oil Sands Sourced Mined CI Barrels Barrels
Access Western Blend Production is generated by SAGD thermal methods. Blended with condensate. Yes No 16.31 247,794 167,231
Albian Heavy Synthetic (all grades) Partially upgraded dilbit produced from the Scotford Upgrader. Yes Yes 19.90 1,463,238 1,382,106
Boundary Lake Light sour conventional crude. No No 8.27 102,760
Burnaby Blend Blend of conventional and synthetic crudes. Partial Partial 11.98 154,030 342,430
Canadian Conventional Heavy Blend of conventionally produced heavy crudes. No No 9.27 269,969 8,028
Christina Dilbit Blend Diluted bitumen produced at Christina Lake SAGD facility. Mostly No 13.34 71,874
Christina Synbit Synthetic crude. Yes Yes 17.43 61,151
Cold Lake Production is bitumen based and requires the use of steam. Yes No 18.40 3,605,136 3,205,705
Kearl Lake Bitumen is mined by shovel and truck and then undergoes onsite paraffinic froth treatment. Yes Yes 12.05 308,662 1,235,972
Koch Alberta Light sour conventional crude. No No 8.27 63,119
Mixed Sweet Conventionally produced light sweet crude. No No 8.27 1,707,626 320,359
Peace River Sour Conventionally produced light sour stream. No No 8.27 63,807
Shell Synthetic (all grades) Light sweet synthetic crude produced from Shell Canada's Scotford complex. Yes Yes 21.39 199,994
Suncor Synthetic (all grades) Synthetic crude produced from the Suncor Canada Project. Yes Yes 23.71 2,286,703 557,872
Surmont Heavy Blend Heavy sour synbit composed of SAGD production and domestic synthetic crude. Yes Partial 18.26 792,787 895,151
Wabasca Blend of heavy oil production obtained by polymer injection and water flooding. No No 6.79 269,509
Western Canadian Select Blend of conventional and oilsands production. Mostly Partial 18.43 29,942
Canadian Crude Oil - Total Volume 11,438,150 8,374,805
All Crude Oils - Total Volumes 605,749,048 582,101,235
Canadian Crude - Share of Total (Percent) 1.89% 1.44%
Canadian Volume Sourced from Oil Sands (Whole or Part) 9,088,286 7,919,492
Canadian Portion Sourced from Oil Sands (Whole or Part) 79.46% 94.56%
Oil Sands Portion of Total Crude Oil 1.50% 1.36%
Canadian Average Carbon Intensity (CI) 17.30 17.44
Total Average for All Crude Oils (CI) 12.06 12.14
CARB Annual Reporting
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Sources: California Energy Commission analysis of California Air Resources Board (CARB) crude oil carbon intensity data.
Majority of oil imported from Canada was sourced from oil sands formations, transported via marine vessel. Not broken out by receiving facility. Data does not include density of crude oil.
No Advanced Reporting
• California Energy Commission does not receive communications of future crude oil deliveries via marine vessel or rail tank car
• USCG Electronic Notice of Arrival or E-NOA– 96-hour advance arrival submittal
– Only requires a simple description for General Cargo• Insufficient to identify crude oil cargo that consists of heavy or extra heavy crude oil
– Should specific types of crude oils be characterized as Certain Dangerous Cargos and require more detailed descriptions?
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Additional Q & A
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Northern Pintail (male), Colusa NWR, Colusa County, CA 12-27-2016.