www.bp.com/energyoutlook
We project Africa will experience the world’s fastest regional energy demand growth – driven by urbanization, rising populations, and strong GDP growth. Africa will remain a significant exporter of oil & gas. Here are a few reasons why:
• In 2035, Africa will have 21% (1.8 Bn) of the world’s population compared to 15% today. The region will also account for 44% of the global increase.
• Energy demand is projected to grow by 93% between today and 2035, much faster than the global average of 41%. However, African demand will make up just 4% of the global total.
• Renewables in power generation expand strongly, but from a very small base, as does hydro (+157%). As a result, non-fossil fuels are projected to double their market share from 7% today to 14% in 2035.
• Fossil fuels will account for 86% of demand in 2035, with natural gas (+109%), oil (+69%), and coal (+63%) all expanding.
• Oil remains the dominant fuel (36%) followed by gas (30%) and coal (21%).
• CO2 emissions will increase by 76% compared to the global average of 29%. However, energy use per capita will be just 21% of the global average.
• By sector, ongoing urbanization and electrification means energy demand in power generation will grow the fastest, expanding by 124% and will account for 47% of energy demand in 2035.
• Energy production will grow by 47% and remains dominated by oil. Oil’s share, however, shrinks from 55% today to 38% in 2035 with natural gas rising to 35%.
• Africa currently exports a significant amount of its energy production (51%), but growing domestic demand will reduce this ratio to 36% by 2035.
• The region will remain an important source of global oil and natural gas supply, accounting for 10% of global oil and 9% of natural gas production in 2035.
• Africa will remains an important exporter of natural gas, responsible for 23% of inter-regional exports in 2035. It will also account for 10% of inter-regional oil exports.
• The increase in combined oil and gas production in Africa between today and 2035 is bigger than in any of the BRIC countries.
BP Energy Outlook 2035 Africa
