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Bioenergy in BrazilBioenergy in BrazilJacob PalisPresident Brazilian Academy of SciencesBrazilian Academy of Sciences
[Presentation prepared by Carlos H Brito Cruz (Scientific[Presentation prepared by Carlos H Brito Cruz (Scientific Director, FAPESP), with inputs from João Jornada (President, Inmetro) and the Study Group for Biofuels at the Brazilian Academy of Sciences] the Brazilian Academy of Sciences]
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B il 180 illi l 9th GNPBrazil: 180 million people, 9th GNP
B ilBrazil
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E i B ilEnergy sources in Brazil50%
il 20
06
OtherCane60%
30%
40%
ourc
es, B
raz Cane
WoodHydro
40%
50%
60%
Bra
zil,
2006
cane15%
20%
30%
enew
able
so
20%
30%
sour
ces
in B 15%
10%
ergy
from
Re
0%
10%
Non Renewable Renewable
Ener
gy s
0%Renewable
EneNon-Renewable Renewable
Renewables in Brazil: 46%; World: 13%; OECD: 6%
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Energy from renewable sourcese gy o e e ab e sou cesSome industrialized countries
S IEA R bl F h 2007
4
Source: IEA, Renewables Factsheet, 2007
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Eth l i B ilEthanol in BrazilSugarcane in Brazil: 1532Mandated addition of Ethanol to fuel: 1929
50%
60%
r Otto
on
(%)
30%
40%
50%
Etha
nol fo
rra
nspo
rtatio
10%
20%
30%ne
rgy f
rom
Ecle
base
d tr
0%
10%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
En cyc
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Brazil: Ethanol productionBrazil: Ethanol production1948-2007
1975: Proalcool Program2003: Flex-fuel vehicles
25
30
ers)
– 90% of new vehicle sold are Flex
Gasoline has 25% 20
25
(Bill
ion
lite
Ethanol added– No pure gasoline in
Brazil10
15
oduc
tion
(
33,000 gas+ethanol stations (out of 36,000)5
10
Etha
nol p
ro
01940 1960 1980 2000 2020
E
Gasoline is the ALTERNATIVE fuel
6
ALTERNATIVE fuel in Brazil02042009
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Eth l W ld P d tiEthanol: World Production
Brazil is 2nd largest producer
Rússia
producerIn 2005:
Índia
França
– Brazil 35% (cane)– USA 35% (corn)
China
Brazilian production– Sucrose: 1/3 of cane EUA
Brasil
– Cellulose used for energy
0 4 8 12 16 20
Ethanol production, 2005 (Billion liters)gy702042009
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205 GL of Ethanol will substitute 05 G o t a o subst tutefor 10% of the world’s gasoline
2004 20252004 2025World gasoline consumption 1,200 GL 1,700 GLEthanol consumption 30 GLEthanol substituting 10% gasoline 205 GL
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Brazil: Gasoline and Ethanol a Gaso e a d t a oconsumption
Source: UNICA9
Source: UNICA02042009
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90% f ld Fl F l90% of cars sold are Flex-Fuel
Gasoline only cars
Flex-fuel carsEthanol only cars
So rce ANFAVEA e UNICA 200810
Source: ANFAVEA e UNICA, 200802042009
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Bi f l i ld h tBiofuel yield per hectare
World Watch 2006 http://www worldwatch org/system/files/EBF008 1 pdf
11
World Watch 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/EBF008_1.pdf
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E b lEnergy balance
12gy
Inpu
t
8
10
ssil
Ener
g
4
6
ut p
er F
os
0
2
ergy
Out
pu
0Sugarcane
SugarBeet
WheatStraw
Corn WoodEne
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GHG d tiGHG reduction
Doornbosch and Steenblik, OECD 2007
13
Doornbosch and Steenblik, OECD 2007
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Eth l t G liEthanol costs x Gasoline
30
35Ethanol price paid to producers (2004 US$/GJ )
25
30
ine
cost
r
GJ)
p p p ( )
Rotterdam regular gasoline price (2004 US$/GJ)
15
20
nd G
asol
4 U
S$ p
er
5
10
Eth
anol
an
(in 2
004
01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
E
14Source: Goldemberg, 200502042009
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Increase in productivity c ease p oduct tythrough R&D
908.000
Agricultural and Industrial product. Total productivity
80
or lt
s/tc)
6.000
ecta
re)
+ 4% per year
60
70
tivity
(tc/
ha o
4.000
ivity
(lite
rs/h
e
50
60
Prod
uct
lt d ál l/t
2.000Prod
ucti
401975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
lts de álcool/tc
tc/hectare
01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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R&D: Increasing number ofR&D: Increasing number of Sugarcane varieties used in Brazil
Developed by 3 researchresearch organizations– CTC– Ridesa– IAC
Plus private companies
1984 1994 2003
– Alellyx– Canaviallis
Now Monsanto16
1984 1994 2003 Now Monsanto02042009
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Bi f l tBiofuels costs
World Watch 2006 http://www worldwatch org/system/files/EBF008 1 pdf
17
World Watch 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/EBF008_1.pdf
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S t tSugarcane energy content
1 Ton of Cane = 1,2 Barrels of OilTodayToday– Sucrose → Ethanol
Sucrose
– Bagasse → burnt for heat for the mill and electricity
BagasseCellulose y
– Leaves and Stalks → burnt on the field (legislation for phasing
Leavesand Stalks the field (legislation for phasing
out)and StalksCellulose
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Sugarcane: Ethanol AND Suga ca e t a oElectricity
(Source: UNICA)19
(Source: UNICA)02042009
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Brazil: 1% of arable land displacesBrazil: 1% of arable land displaces 30%+ of the gasoline
20
Source: UNICA
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Sugarcane for ethanol uses 0,5% Suga ca e o et a o uses 0,5%of total area
Total country area (851 Mha 100%)
Small bioenergy footprint
Total country area (851 Mha, 100%)
Rural properties area (355 Mha, 42%)
A d f f th l (3 6
Area used for agriculture (76,7 Mha, 9%)
Area used for sugarcane for ethanol (3,6Mha, 0,5%)
Source: Horta Nogueira e Seabra (2008)21
Source: Horta Nogueira e Seabra (2008)02042009
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2050: Available land for biofuels2050: Available land for biofuels(Doornbosch and Steenblik, 2007)
Land (in Gha) North Am.South &
Centr. Am.Europe & Russia Africa Asia Oceania World
Total land surface 2,1 2,0 2,3 3,0 3,1 0,9 13,401 Apt for Rainfed cultivation 0,4 0,9 0,5 0,9 0,5 0,1 3,302 Apt and Under forest 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,803 Apt, already in use 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,6 0,1 1,504 Necessary for food, housing and infrastructure until 2030/50
0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,30
( )5 Available (Gross) [5=1‐2‐3‐4] 0,00 0,25 0,08 0,44 ‐0,07 0,04 0,746 % for grassland 0% 0% 50% 60% n/a 0%7 Additional land potentially available (7)=(5)x(1‐% for grassland)
0,00 0,25 0,04 0,18 ‐0,07 0,04 0,44
a Most studies assume that only a small fraction of additional land is needed to feed the world’s growing population— from 6 5 billion people ata. Most studies assume that only a small fraction of additional land is needed to feed the world s growing population from 6.5 billion people at present to 9 billion people in 2050 — and that most of the increase in food requirements will be met by an increase in agricultural productivity.6 Here it is assumed that 0.2 Gha is needed for additional food production (based on Fisher and Schrattenholzer, 2001 where a yearly increase in agricultural productivity of 1.1% is assumed); the remainder (roughly 0.1 Gha) is needed for additional housing and infrastructure.b. A negative number is shown here as more land is cultivated than potentially available for rain‐fed cultivation because of irrigation. The negative land available has not been rounded to zero because food imports are likely to be needed from other region with implications on their land useavailable has not been rounded to zero because food imports are likely to be needed from other region with implications on their land use.c. Numbers in this column don’t add up because of rounding.
0.25GHa @ 10kL/Ha.yr → 2,500GL /yr (in 2005: 40 GL)22
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R f titiReference quantitiesArea available in South & Central America by 2050: 0,25 GhaArea available in Africa by 2050: 0,18 Gha(both according to Doornbosch & Steenblik OECD 2007)(both according to Doornbosch & Steenblik, OECD, 2007)
0.25GHa @ 10kL/Ha.yr → 2,500 GL /yr (in 2005: 40 GL)2004 2050
World gasoline consumption (1) 1,200 GL 2,200 GL
@ y y ( )
Ethanol consumption 30 GLEthanol substituting 10% gasoline 265 GLEthanol substituting 100% gasoline 2 650 GLEthanol substituting 100% gasoline 2,650 GL(1) Source: National Energy Information Center (NEIC)
Potential for substituting for 100% of the world gasoline demand considering only the available area in South and Central America (Africa has another 0,18 Gha)
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( , )
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Wh d B il l t S ?Where does Brazil plant Sugarcane?
Not in the AmazonB t l d fBest land for cane:– Northeast coast
• Oldest (XVI century)
– Southeast 55 ton/ha • highest productivity
– Centralwest
55 ton/ha
• main expansion area82 ton/ha
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St d dStandards
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High quality measurement g qua ty easu e e tstandards
Inmetro (Brazil) and NIST (EUA) exchange CRMs – Ethanol (Inmetro); Soy Biodiesel (NIST) for validation(Inmetro); Soy Biodiesel (NIST) for validationProject BIOREMA – CRMs with UE
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C l iConclusion
Brazil created a large and successful experiment on planting fuel since 1975Sugarcane has special characteristics– Productivity – GHG reductionGHG reduction– Favorable energy balance
Brazilian strategy counts on many other countries producing Ethanol from ivarious sources
– Technology transfer– Cooperative R&Dp
Most probable producers: Latin America and Africa– Access to energy for developing countries
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I tit ti l ddInstitutional addresses
The Brazilian Academy of Sciences: http://www.abc.org.brThe São Paulo State Research Foundation, FAPESP: http://www.fapesp.br/english/FAPESP’s Bioenergy Research Program (BIOEN): http://bioenfapesp org/FAPESP s Bioenergy Research Program (BIOEN): http://bioenfapesp.org/Brazilian Institute for Metrology: http://www.inmetro.gov.br/english/
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