BENEFITS OF THE RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH: PERSPECTIVES FROM A
FOOD INDUSTRY
DR MARK CHAMBERLAIN
Head of Risk Analysis GroupSafety and Environmental Assurance Centre
Unilever ColworthSharnbrook Bedfordshire
United Kingdom
UNILEVER BUSINESS
• Foods, and Home and Personal Care• 265,000 employees world wide• Brands on sale in 151 countries• Consumers choose our products 150 million
times every day• $50bn annual turnover
WHAT IS SEAC
• Independent Corporate group responsible for:– assuring consumer safety– assuring environmental safety – advising on safe handling in factories
• Reporting to the highest level of the organisation• Dedicated to its role• Incident management• >10,000 requests annually for pre-market safety
approvals• 40 years of experience and expert knowledge
Risk Risk RiskAssessment Management Communication
PAST CONCEPT OF RISK ANALYSIS
• focus on hazard
• linear process
• unique stages
• stages province of difference experts
EXPERTS AND RISK ANALYSIS
Risk Assessment:The world of Scientists
– Hazards (toxic chemicals, food poisoning micro-organisms, explosions)
– Exposures (measurements, worst case assumptions, probabilistic modelling)
– Likelihood of adverse events (probabilities)
EXPERTS AND RISK ANALYSIS
Risk ManagementThe world of policy makers and managers (decision makers)
– what decisions are to be made• accepting• transferring• reducing• avoiding
• trade-offs
• constraints
EXPERTS AND RISK ANALYSIS
Risk CommunicationThe world of the “spokesperson” and the media (who deal with ‘Issues’)
– informing people about hazards and risk– informing (telling) them what they should do
–avoiding unnecessary alarm
THE THREE DOMAINS OF RISK DEBATES
ISSUES•values and ethics
•concerns and perceptions•effect on me
•fairness•emotions
SCIENCE•scientific facts
•numbers and probabilities•effect on populations
•scientific rules
DECISIONS•trade-offs
•money•politics
WHO SITS WHERE IN THE THREE DOMAINS
ISSUES•public
•consumers•citizens•NGO’s
•public relations•media
SCIENCE•academic scientists
•government scientists•industry scientists
DECISIONS•business decision-makers
•governments•regulators
TECHNOCRATIC VIEW OF RISK COMMUNICATION
Risk Risk RiskAssessment Management Communication
SCIENCE DECISIONS COMMUNICATIONTO AUDIENCES
One-way communication: scientists explain to everyone else
CHALLENGES TO THE TECHNOCRATIC APPROACH
• Risk assessment increasingly scientific and quantitative
• Risk become increasingly controversial (particularly in Europe)
• Questions about who benefits, who takes the risks, who checks that safety is observed
• Challenges have come from the public, pressure groups, political players
ATTRIBUTES OF RECENT RISK DEBATES
• Some players use science-only based arguments (usually industry and/or government)
• Other players challenge the science suggesting alternative interpretations (often campaigning organisations)
• Many non-scientific issues are raised (by other stakeholders)
So science is not enough
CHANGING VIEW OF RISK COMMUNICATION: STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
1986 Slovic. P.“Informing and educating people about risk”
1989 US National Research Council“Improving Risk Communication”
1993 Sandman.P.M.“Responding to community outrage:strategies for
effective risk communication”
RISK AND OUTRAGE
Acceptability = fn Technical , Level ofof risk risk outrage
‘Technical risk’ stands for all the scientific/technical assessment of risk
‘Outrage’ stands for all the broader issues that people get concerned or angry about
(Adapted from Sandman P.M. 1993 Responding to Community outrage:strategies for effective risk communication, American Industrial
Hygiene Association)
MOVING TO A STAKEHOLDER APPROACH
• Stakeholders are to be engaged with, not just audiences to receive communication
• Science has to be communicated more effectively
• Listening to broader concerns• All parties prepared to change their
position in light of what others say
ENGAGING WITH STAKEHOLDERS
Build trust through open and honest communication:
– tailor the message– demonstrate empathy– be responsive– demonstrate credibility– articulate the benefits of proposed and
alternative options– do not hide uncertainties– banish no-risk messages
TWO-WAY COMMUNICATION: ANTICIPATING AND INTERACTING
SCIENCEOPTIONS
ANDDECISIONS
COMMUNICATIONWITH
STAKEHOLDERS
EXPLAIN HERE
EXPLAINHERE
LISTEN LISTENISSUES
UNDERSTANDINGSTAKEHOLDER
ISSUES
IMPROVING RISK ANALYSIS
• Combining subjective information with scientific data using structured approaches– Decision Analysis– Bayesian Belief Networks
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS
Problem definition
Issue raising
Strategy table
Influence diagram
Decision hierarchy
Stakeholder analysis
Scenario analysis
Fright factors
Decision trees
Monte Carlo
Probability assessment
Deterministic sensitivity
Probability distributions
Value of Information
Value of Control
Sensitivity to probability
Framing and structuring tools Evaluation tools
BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKSRepresenting variability and uncertainty in a simple model of microbial growth (G. Barker, 2002)
q lamda
T0 a0 t
Alpha
LogNc
Cp_
Uq
qmoments
a T
No
c LogNtNtest Nplus
TAKE CONTROL (BECEL/FLORA pro.active)
• Phytosterol esters in spreads• Reduced serum cholesterol• Initial safety prognosis good• Unfamiliar issues• Unilever’s first functional food• Novel food in Europe, Australia and New
Zealand– new legislation, first non-GM application
KEY OPINION FORMER COMMUNICATIONS
• 60 key opinion formers • 25 countries• Discussed safety programme• Received concerns• Constructed agreed work programme• Feedback and further dialogue
TAKE CONTROL (BECEL/FLORA pro.active)
• Products launched from 1999• USA, Europe, Switzerland, Brazil,
Australia, New Zealand, Czech Republic, Poland, Cyprus, South Africa, Japan
• Consumer post launch monitoring established via customer care-lines
• Continuing dialogues with key opinion formers
LEARNINGS
• Importance of face-to-face meetings• Requires a great deal of effort• Prepare and train our people to engage in
dialogue• Listen to views/concerns and understand
LEARNINGS
• Others in society view our products and associated risks differently
• Demonstrate by our behaviour that we have – listened– understood– taken seriously– acted
• Feedback– listen ………
BENEFITS FOR UNILEVER
• Understand stakeholders concerns• Receive direct consumer feedback• Allows time for consideration and action• No surprises• Facilitates partnership way-of-working• Communicate better internally and
externally
BENEFITS FOR UNILEVER
• Changes our views• Helps formulate future developments• Continuous improvements• Reinforces our values
BENEFITS FOR STAKEHOLDERS
• Concerns are being listened to, considered and acted upon
• Being taken seriously• Communication channels are clearer• Feel that they can influence positively now
and future developments• Increased transparency of decisions
RISK ANALYSIS - SUMMING UP
Provides a framework for considering scientific data as well as policy and societal values pertinent to risk management decisions:•Structured and inclusive
– to communicate clearly how the issues have been addressed
• Transparent– to display the reasoning for the decision
•Builds trust– via open and honest communication
RISK ANALYSIS - SUMMING UP
OUTCOME
Transparent risk analysis adds value
by incorporating stakeholder issues and
increases the acceptability of risk
management decisions