Download - Basic Concepts of Risk Analysis
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Basic Concepts of Risk Analysis
Session 1
Dr. Bijan Khazai
Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Learning Objectives
Learn Terminology, definitions and key concepts of (disaster) risk. The notions of probability, acceptable risk and risk
perception. Basic elements and processes in risk analysis.
Understand Risk as a dynamic process of hazard and vulnerability. The difference between direct and indirect impacts. Risk analysis as a basic component of the disaster risk
assessment paradigm. How risk analysis can help disaster managers and decision
makers. The key applications of risk analysis.
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
What is a Disaster?
“A serious disruption of the functioning of the community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.”
(UNISDR)
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Risk as Path to Disaster… Disasters are preceded by…
Triggering event, usually called hazard at this potential state;
A pre-existing vulnerability of people, processes, infrastructure, services, organizations, or systems to be affected, damaged or destroyed by event.
Risk is not the disaster itself, but the path to disaster if: Protective capabilities of society cannot deal with the
potential losses and impacts of the event. Increasing vulnerabilities in society due to lack of
building codes and zoning laws, population increase, overwhelming migration to urban areas, and settlements in high hazard areas
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Risk Perception Risk is a normal part of daily life.
Our response to natural hazards is often influenced by our perception of risk.
Risk perception depends on whether we feel in control of a perceived risk.
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Scenario of a nuclear accident
Risk perception is influenced by past experience, cultural values, societal opinion, and socio-economic background.
Risk analysis is the process of understanding risk (a cost versus benefit decision).
Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Concept of Risk Risk combines the probability of a hazard event occurring
and the impact of that event.
A risk analysis tries to answer the questions: What can happen? How likely is it to happen Given that it occurs, what are the consequences?
“Acceptable risk” describes the likelihood of an event with either low probability of occurrence, or insignificant consequences (and/or immense benefits) so individuals or groups are willing to be subjected to the risk.
Defining “acceptable risk” is an important part of the risk analysis process which is connected to risk perception.
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Multi-faceted Concepts of Risk Physical
Expected damage to built environment, human, and capital assets. Economic
Expected financial losses or gains. Ecological
Threat to ecosystem stability and sustainability. Health
Statistical association between disease risk factors and clinically observed outcomes. Psychological
Based on perception of harm as dictated by social constructions or culture-specific rules of pending threats.
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Elements of RiskA function of a natural hazard, described in terms of severity and frequency of hazard event, and the vulnerability of an individual or group of people given their physical setting, environment, and socio-economic conditions.
Vulnerability
Hazard
RiskRisk = F (Hazard, Vulnerability)
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Disaster Impacts Direct vs. Indirect Impacts
Impacts of natural disasters can be classified according to whether they are triggered directly by the event or occur over time as indirect macroeconomic, social or environmental impacts.
Direct impacts include all physical damages to assets plus the monetary losses associated directly with the repair, replacement or loss of functionality of the damaged assets.
Indirect impact is any impact other than the direct consequence of the event.
Damage - Degradation in condition of physical, human, social, environmental assets as a direct consequence of the event.
Loss - Decrease in asset value as a consequence of damage (not always measured in monetary terms).
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
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Disaster Impacts
Indirect
Tangible Intangible Tangible Intangibl
e
Direct
Disaster Impacts
Economic
Social/Cultural
Environmental
Impact onproduction and services
Cost of replacing and repairing physical capitalLoss of life andInjuries, dislocation, evacuation
Loss of social networks , drops in school attendance, etc.Loss of
ecosystem use values
Loss of ecosystem amenity values
Psycho-social trauma caused by displacement
Loss of personal memorabilia or cultural heritage
Loss of know-how, and intellectual property
Impact on innovation and value systems
Effects on biodiversity and natural habitats
Increased soil erosion, water pollution, etc.
Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Importance of Risk Analysis Risk Analysis is a
basic instrument of Disaster Risk Assessment paradigm which enables the integration of the risk assessment findings into a Risk Reduction Strategy and Outcome.
Disaster Risk Assessment
Risk ReductionOutcome
Risk Management• What can be done?• What are the
options?• What are the trade-
offs?
Risk Communication• Who are the stakeholders?• What information do they
need?• How is it presented?
Risk Analysis• What can go wrong?• What is the likelihood of it going wrong?• What are the consequences?
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Why Perform a Risk Analysis? Disaster managers have to answer some
fundamental questions about disasters and their occurrence. Where do they occur? (maps) How much warning would it be possible to have? (tools for
decision making) How could people prepare for it?
What sort of damage does it do to people and the
environment? (direct vs indirect) How would the different people be affected? (holistic
analysis) Who would be most affected? What support might affected people need to rebuild their
lives?
Breaking from the destructive cycle of destruction and reconstruction to addressing root causes of vulnerability.
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Process of Risk Analysis
Quantify the potential impacts of hazard events on buildings, infrastructure,
population, and institutions.
Identify and study the vulnerability of infrastructure, population groups and gaps in
existing coping strategies
Identify, analyze and estimate allpossible hazards
Risk Analysis Foundation for planning and
implementing risk reduction
Interpret the impacts on the community, institutions,
organizational processes, and available resources.
Hazard
Vulnerability
RiskDisaster ImpactLoss Estimation
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis Components
Risk Analysis
Vulnerability Analysis
Hazard Analysis
Fragility/Susceptibility Analysis
Capacity/Resilience Analysis
Social Economic Physical Environme
ntal Cultural
Analysis of weaknesses and gaps in existing protective and adaptive strategies.
Legal/institutional frameworks and policies
Social and economic development practices
Geological Hydro-
meteorological Biological Technological Environmental
Analysis of fragilities in infrastructure and built environment
Analysis of susceptibility in non-physical systems (e.g. populations, ecosystem, etc.)
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis Applications
Risk Analysis
Disaster Mitigation Building Code
Regulations Building Code
Enforcement Land-Use Planning Urban Renovation Risk Transfer
Recovery Planning Housing &
Reconstruction Infrastructure Repair Funding & Capital
Allocation Victim Needs
Response Planning Real-time Damage
Estimation Resources Deployment Health Care Delivery Urban Search & Rescue
Preparedness Scenario Analysis Community
Preparedness Capacity Building Locations for Shelters
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Risk AnalysisFundamentals of Risk Analysis
Conclusions Risk Analysis more than just a tool for experts. Process that
provides the tools for integration of stakeholders into decision making process (i.e. optimal approach to tackling risks that are generally unacceptable to the target communities).
Risk Analysis consists of a scientifically based process of evaluating hazards, vulnerability to those hazards, and then estimating the resulting impact.
Risk Analysis enables government and communities to: Understand potential human and material losses and their
spatial and sectoral distributions Estimate potential impact on critical facilities, infrastructure
and lifelines Prepare and plan for a disaster and optimize the allocation of
resources Communicate risk parameters to different stakeholders for
developing strategy for risk management and for risk communication
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