Australian Commercial Building Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990–2010
report1999
T h e A u s t r a l i a n G r e e n h o u s e O f f i c e i s t h e l e a d C o m m o n w e a l t h a g e n c y o n g r e e n h o u s e m a t t e r s
executive summary
ii
ISBN 18 76536 195
© Commonwealth of Australia 1999
This work is copyright. Permission is given for fair dealing
with this material as permitted under copyright legislation,
including for the purposes of private study and research.
Apart from those uses, no part may be reproduced without
prior written permission from the Commonwealth.
Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction rights
should be directed to the:
Manager, Communications
Australian Greenhouse Office
GPO Box 621, Canberra ACT 2601
For additional copies of this document, the complete
study or further information please contact the
Australian Greenhouse Office,
GPO Box 621, Canberra ACT 2601
This summary is available online at the
Australian Greenhouse Office website
www.greenhouse.gov.au/energyefficiency/building
Design Wingrove Wingrove Design
Photos Michael Shaw
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
FOREWORD
Climate scientists now generally agree that human activity
has influenced, and will continue to influence our planet’s
climate. Wide acceptance of their work has driven the
need for the global strategy of the Kyoto Protocol that
Australia signed on 29 April 1998.
Over the next decade the commercial building sector will
need to recognise and address greenhouse concerns. This
expanding sector with fast-growing emissions can
significantly contribute to meeting Australia’s greenhouse
gas reduction target and simultaneously improve the
comfort and health of all Australians in their built
environments. FO
RE
WA
RD
The Australian Greenhouse Office is pleased to offer this
sectoral report which will contribute to the wider
understanding of greenhouse issues in Australia. The study
provides a baseline within the commercial building sector
for greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 and projects the
expected growth of emissions to 2010.
Along with a similar study on the residential building sector, iii the report is designed to foster knowledge and debate on
limiting greenhouse gas emissions related to the built
environment. The Australian Greenhouse Office believes
that significant greenhouse gas abatement can be
achieved within this sector. I hope that all members of the
building industry will play an active role in meeting the
challenge to slow global warming.
I would like to thank the authors of this report, EMET
Consultants Pty Ltd and Solarch Group, and recognise the
input of the Steering Committee representing industry and
government organisations.
Gwen Andrews
Chief Executive
Australian Greenhouse Office
December 1999
iv
Acknowledgements
The study was produced for the Australian
Greenhouse Office by EMET Consultants Pty Ltd
& Solarch Group.
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
CONTENTS
Australian Commercial Buildings Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2010 1
Study Objectives 3
Projection Scenarios 3
Key Project Findings 4
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2010 4
Emissions by energy source 4
Emissions by end use application 5
Emissions by sub-sector 6
Emissions by building type 6
Emissions due to embodied energy 6
Greenhouse abatement options 7
Impact of existing initiatives 8
Quantitative assessment of an equitable commitment for the building sector 8
Quantification of the emission gap 9
Potential of voluntary measures 9
Project Conclusions 10
Operating energy related emissions to 2010 10
Greenhouse abatement options 10
Priority areas for abatement 10
Embodied energy 10
Recommendations 11
The way forward for reducing emissions 11
Further research 11
References 11
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AUSTRALIAN COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS SECTOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 1990 – 2010
This study estimates energy consumption and greenhouse
gas emissions in the commercial buildings sector over the
period 1990 to 2010. The primary aim is to provide a basis
for the determination of an equitable contribution by the
building sector to greenhouse gas emission reductions.
The analysis uses existing databases from previous work
within the industry by such bodies as ABARE, DPIE, and
the Property Council of Australia. EMET’s own databases
and models are used heavily in the analysis.
The use of electricity is responsible for 89% of commercial
buildings’ greenhouse gas emissions. Specific operational
energy applications principally responsible for greenhouse
gas emissions are cooling (28%), air handling (22%),
lighting (21%) and heating (13%). Heating, ventilation and
air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting thus account for 84%
of commercial building sector greenhouse emissions.
Building shell performance has a large impact on the
heating, cooling and illumination requirements for
commercial buildings. Improvements in the thermal,
daylighting and natural ventilation performance of
commercial building shells will reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Increasing the efficiency of artificial lighting will
reduce emissions directly by lower energy consumption,
and indirectly through lower cooling requirements.
A number of government and industry bodies have taken
considerable steps to abate emissions emanating from
commercial buildings. Various government organisations
have imposed measures that influence the level of
greenhouse gas emissions released by new and newly
refurbished buildings. Some prominent companies have
implemented voluntary greenhouse and energy
management programs, and peak industry bodies have
embarked on promotional and support programs to assist
in the achievement of such improvements. The current
combination of existing and proposed abatement
measures will provide an improvement over the business-
as-usual (BAU) scenario for the sector.
In his Statement of 20 November 1997, “Safeguarding the
Future: Australia’s Response to Climate Change”, the Prime
Minister announced a package of measures to reduce
Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. He noted that this
package of measures was designed both to ensure that
Australia plays its part in the global effort required to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and to protect Australian jobs
and industry. The Government is therefore seeking “realistic,
cost-effective reductions in key sectors where emissions are
high or growing strongly, while also fairly spreading the
burden of action across the economy”. The Prime Minister
also noted that “[The Government is] prepared to ask
industry to do more than they may otherwise be prepared
to do, that is, to go beyond a ‘no regrets’, minimal cost
approach where this is sensible in order to achieve effective
and meaningful outcomes.”
Subsequent negotiations resulted in an international
agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework
Convention on Climate Change, under which Australia
will have an obligation, inter alia, to reduce its rate of
greenhouse gas emissions to 108% of their 1990 level
by 2008-2012. This compares with a BAU scenario
prior to the Prime Minister’s Statement of 28% emissions
growth for the economy as a whole, and around 40% for
energy-related emissions.
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
For the building sector, the Prime Minister’s
Statement specified:
“The Commonwealth will work with the States, Territories
and key industry stakeholders to develop voluntary
minimum energy performance standards for new and
substantially refurbished commercial buildings on the basis
of energy efficiency benchmarks. If after 12 months, the
Government assesses that the voluntary approach is not
achieving acceptable progress towards higher standards
of energy efficiency for housing and commercial buildings,
we will work with the States and industry to implement
mandatory standards through amendment of the
Building Code of Australia.”
This project has been commissioned by the Australian
Greenhouse Office (in consultation with the building
industry) to determine the baseline of 1990 greenhouse
gas emissions attributable to the commercial building
sector of the economy. The estimate provides a firm,
quantitative basis for the subsequent development of
specific greenhouse response measures by industry
and government.
By quantifying the impacts of a range of building sector
influenced possibilities, this study provides a basis for
establishing an equitable contribution that the commercial
building sector can make to the national objective of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in line with
Australia’s obligations.
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STUDY OBJECTIVES
The study was designed to achieve the
following key objectives:
1. Assess the 1990 greenhouse gas emissions
attributable to the non-residential building sector;
2. Quantify the BAU emission growth projections,
1990-2010, with and without emission-reduction
measures implemented or announced to date;
3. Assess an equitable gas emission reduction
commitment for the commercial building sector,
taking into account baseline and projected
emissions growth to 2010 and the Kyoto Protocol
commitment for Australia as a whole;
4. Quantify any gap between the proposed emission
reduction commitment to 2010 for the building
sector and the projected emissions growth with
measures implemented or announced to date.
The study focused primarily on greenhouse gas emissions
associated with the operation of commercial buildings,
including emissions associated with the activities taking
place within all buildings (eg tenant energy consumption).
Emissions attributable to both building owners and
occupants were covered by the study.
Quantitative information was derived to enable the
identification of policy options for reducing sectoral
greenhouse gas emissions. The study was not intended to
identify and investigate such policy options.
PROJECTION SCENARIOS
The evaluation procedure quantified greenhouse gas
emissions for the following scenarios in relation to the BAU
forecasts:
■ the abatement expected to be produced through natural
improvement in technologies and systems, over and
above that allowed for in the ABARE forecasts;
■ the abatement expected to be achieved by policies and
measures announced or implemented since November
1997;
■ the abatement likely to be achieved through normal
market forces (ie. desirable payback period);
■ the gap between the level of emission abatement
predicted from the above, and the Kyoto target.
As an aid to future policy development, a summary
relationship between abatement level, implementation cost
and return on investment was produced in the full study
(available from the Australian Greenhouse Office; see inside
front cover for details).
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
Figure 1: Commercial buildings energy KEY PROJECT FINDINGS share by energy source 1990 (ABARE 1997)
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2010 70
The study found that the commercial buildings sector is 60
Kyoto target level
Emissionsexpected to increase its greenhouse gas emissions to
nearly twofold from 32 Mt of CO2 per annum to 63 Mt
between the years of 1990 and 2010 under the BAU
scenario. Refer to figure 1. Emissions other than those
directly related to energy consumption were negligible (less
than 2%). An improvement over the frozen efficiency case,
of approximately 3.8 Mt per annum was found. This has
Emiss
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(Mt o
f CO
2-e
per a
nnum
) 50
40
30
20
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been included in the BAU forecasts and is due to the
continued level of efficiency improvements achieved in the 10
sector since the middle 1980’s. 0
Emissions by energy source
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
4
Figure 2: Commercial buildings energy Figures 2 and 3 depict the proportions of energy use share by energy source 1990 (ABARE 1997)
and greenhouse emissions respectively for each energy
source used by the commercial buildings sector in 1990.
Electricity was found to be the largest energy source (65%)
25% GAS
7% PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
65% ELECTRICITY
but was responsible for an even larger proportion (89%) of
the total greenhouse gas emissions due to its high average
greenhouse gas emission factor. Natural gas was the next
highest cause of greenhouse gas at 7% of total emissions.
Figure 4 (over page) shows the proportions of energy
source usage in the commercial buildings sector, and the
relative trends between the years of 1990 and 2010. It can
be seen that in the BAU scenario the relative proportions of
electricity and gas are not expected to change significantly
3% COAL
0% WOOD
but energy use, and therefore greenhouse emissions, are Figure 3: Commercial building greenhouse gas emission share by energy source 1990 (ABARE 1997, EMET 1999) expected to nearly double over these two decades.
7% GAS
3% PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
1% COAL
0% WOOD
89% ELECTRICITY
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
Figure 4: Commercial building trends in energy consumption by energy source for the BAU scenario (ABARE 1997)
350
300
Coal
Gas
Electricity
Petroleum
Wood
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Ener
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nsum
ptio
n (P
J pe
r ann
um) 250
200
150
100
50
0
5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Emissions by end use application Figure 6: Commercial building greenhouse gas emission share by end use 1990 (EMET 1999)
Figures 5 and 6 show the proportions of energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions respectively caused by energy
applications within the commercial building sector in 1990.
22% VENTILATION
21% LIGHTING
28% COOLING
In energy terms, heating is the largest single end use in the
commercial buildings sector at 33%, but is the fourth
largest with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. Space
cooling, ventilation and lighting were found to be the three
most significant causes of emissions, together accounting
for 71% of the total. The actual proportion applicable to a
specific building type may vary substantially from this
commercial sector average.
Figure 5: Commercial building energy share
12% OFFICE EQUIPMENT & OTHER
4% COOKING & HOT WATER
13% HEATING
Figure 7: Commercial building greenhouse gas emission by end-use 1990 (EMET 1999) share by sub-sector 1990 (ABARE, EMET & NSW DoE data)
32% RETAIL/WHOLESALE
17% FINANCE & BUSINESS
11% RECREATION
4% COMMUNICATIONS
36% PUBLIC ADMIN & COMM SERVICES
16% VENTILATION
15% LIGHTING
9% OFFICE EQUIPMENT & OTHER
6% COOKING & HOT WATER
21% COOLING
33% HEATING
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
Emissions by sub-sector
Figure 7 (previous page) describes the proportions of
emissions emanating from each sub-sector of the
commercial buildings sector. The government buildings
sector (public administration and community services) was
found to be the most significant sub-sector, generating
approximately 12 Mt of CO2 per annum (36% of total
sector) in 1990. The retail/wholesale sector was a close
second at 32% of total emissions.
Emissions by building type
The commercial ‘office’ building was found to be the most
significant building type, responsible for an estimated 27%
of total sector emissions in 1990. Hospitals formed the
next largest group at 13%.
Figure 8 shows the 1990 breakdown of CO2 emissions
from the Commercial Buildings Sector, by building type.
Offices and hospitals together account for around 40%
of total emissions. Figure 9 (over page) shows the 1990
breakdown of CO2 emissions by sub-sector and energy
end use application. The combined public administration
and community services sector is shown to be the most
intensive emitter, at a total of 12 Mt of CO2 per annum.
The retail/wholesale sector is the next largest at
10 Mt per annum.
Emissions due to embodied energy
Greenhouse gas emissions related to embodied energy
(energy consumed in the production and placement of
building materials) were found to be of less significance
than those related to operating energy. Embodied energy
emissions were found to be approximately 8% to 10% of
buildings. This was the proportion found in studies of four
actual buildings (McArdle et al, 1993 and EMET, 1999)
assuming a 40 year lifespan. This proportion would vary
substantially for different building types, and for those
using far less operating energy (eg schools, warehouses,
non air-conditioned offices and accommodation) it
would be much higher.
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Figure 8: Commercial building greenhouse gas emissions by key building types 1990 (EMET 1999)
Food stores
Clothing & fabric stores
Department stores
Household appliance & hardware stores
Accommodation
Communications
Schools
Fast food restaurants
Registered clubs
Other retail & wholesale
Other public admin & comm services
Other recreation
Offices
Hospitals
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0 7.0 8.0
9.0
CO 2 Emissions Mt per annum
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
Figure 9: Commercial building greenhouse gas emissions by sub-sector and end use (EMET 1999)
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A holistic understanding of energy consumption and the
associated greenhouse gas emissions must take into
account both the embodied energy and the operating
energy. Embodied energy is becoming of greater
significance as a proportion of whole-of-life energy
consumption due to several reasons:
■ more energy intensive materials are being used in
buildings than previously e.g. aluminium, stainless steel,
coated glasses and high strength concretes;
■ buildings are often bigger than previously requiring
greater quantities of materials;
■ buildings are being refurbished more frequently than
previously requiring more materials;
■ more machine intensive, rather than labour intensive,
techniques are used in construction, requiring energy
derived from fossil sources;
■ building materials are transported greater distances than
previously so transport energy is likely to be greater;
■ technologies reducing operating energy are
constantly being developed and implemented;
■ in the foreseeable future it is likely buildings will
generate some of their own operating energy,
by devices such as photovoltaics, which may be
integrated within the building fabric.
Greenhouse abatement options
The analysis of greenhouse abatement options for the
sector (refer to Table 1) produced the following results:
■ using a payback criteria of 2.5 years, as the typical
cut-off level for private sector voluntary investment, a
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 12 Mt of CO2
per annum may be expected to be achieved under a
voluntary scenario (note that this includes the 3.8 Mt
related to the frozen efficiency improvement);
■ using a positive Net Present Value as criteria, the
expected level of reduction would increase to between
15 Mt and 20 Mt of CO2 per annum depending on the
applicable interest rates;
■ the most significant opportunity for greenhouse gas
emissions abatement initiatives is lighting, showing a
potential reduction average of approximately 70% of
total emissions;
■ no significant bias was found in the potential for
emission abatement between new buildings and
refurbishment of existing buildings with the average
being close to 50% for each type.
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
Table 1: Greenhouse gas abatement potential and cost effectiveness of alternative groupings of initiatives (EMET 1999)
Initiatives Grouping Criteria Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential Mt of CO2 per annum Cost of Abatement $/t CO2 per annum
Ligh
ting
syst
ems
initi
ativ
es
HVAC
sys
tem
s in
itiat
ives
Proc
esse
s &
oth
er in
itiat
ives
Tota
l
Aver
age
cost
for g
roup
Mar
gina
l cos
t of l
ast i
nitia
tive
Payback period
Immediate (no cost) 1.4 1.7 0.7 3.8 Nil Nil
Greater than immediate and less than 1 year 2.4 0.4 0.5 3.4 $89 $135
Between 1 and 2.5 years payback 4.2 0.5 0 4.7 $160 $235
Between 2.5 and 5 years payback 2.7 0.7 0.2 3.6 $332 $530
Positive net present value
4% discount rate 12.6 5.6 1.6 19.8 $297 $650
8% discount rate 10.7 5.6 1.6 17.9 $260 $575
15% discount rate 9.1 4.2 1.4 14.7 $171 $500
Specific target improvement
30% improvement over BAU 14.9 5.8 1.9 22.5 $406 $1,900
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Achievement of the Kyoto target Not cost-effectively achievable using conventional energy management techniques and technologies.
Impact of existing initiatives
Existing and announced greenhouse abatement and
energy management initiatives may be expected to
produce an impact of 1.4 Mt of CO2 per annum only, due
to their current low level of penetration or application. A full
application of these measures may be expected to achieve
a level of reduction of 8.5 Mt of CO2 per annum by the
year 2010. This level of reduction, is however lower than
the reduction available from a combination of voluntary
measures (cost-effectiveness) and improved level of
awareness in the marketplace (12 Mt at 2.5 year payback).
Quantitative assessment of an equitable commitment for the building sector
It was found that the Kyoto target of 108% of the 1990
emission level could not be achieved using conventional
energy management techniques. As a realistic target, a
30% emission reduction improvement in the commercial
building sector by the year 2010 has been proposed. This
involves a reduction of approximately 19 Mt of CO2 per
annum in 2010 from the BAU scenario, but would require
additional investment of $4.2 billion (1990 dollars). Given
the length of the marginal payback period involved, this is
an unlikely voluntary scenario for any component of the
Commercial sector.
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Quantification of the emission gap
Figure 10 illustrates the impact of various policies/
measures over the BAU and Frozen Efficiency cases.
Shown on the figure are the following scenarios of
potential greenhouse gas abatement:
■ the abatement level expected from the existing
measures and policies for government buildings,
and new/refurbished private sector buildings
(segment [1]);
■ the additional abatement level estimated to be
voluntarily achieved due to economic justification
and better knowledge of emission saving options
(segment [2]);
■ the Kyoto target and the alternative 30% emissions
reduction target;
■ the gap between the level of reduction expected in 2010
based on the current status of policies/measures and
cost-effectiveness and the 30% target (GAP–1 of 8.8 Mt
of CO2 per annum) and the Kyoto target (GAP–2 of
18 Mt of CO2 per annum).
Potential of voluntary measures
The study found that voluntary measures have the potential
to produce higher levels of abatement than any of the
current policies/measures. However for greatest effect,
these would need to be reinforced by a program of
awareness and education and an expansion of mandatory
minimum performance standards for new building
developments and refurbishments. These minimum
standards would capture those buildings which currently
do not achieve even the basic, cost-effective levels of
improvement.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Emiss
ions
(Mt o
f CO
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er a
nnum
)2
Kyoto target level
BAU forecast
GAP-2
GAP-1
[2]
[1]
30% target emission reduction level
Frozen efficiency emission level
Figure 10: Forecast commercial building greenhouse gas emission levels and comparison with alternative target scenarios (EMET 1999)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Frozen efficiency
Base emission level
Kyoto target
Cost-effective measures
30% target
New building policies (non govt.) Government sector
Austra l ian Commercia l Bui ld ing Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 – 2010 Executive Summary Report 1999
PROJECT CONCLUSIONS
Operating energy related emissions to 2010
The BAU scenario for the Commercial Buildings Sector
predicts an increase in energy related greenhouse gas
emissions from a level of 32 Mt per annum in the year
1990 to 63 Mt for the year 2010. Achieving the Kyoto
target level of 108% of the 1990 emissions would require a
net reduction for the sector of approximately 28 Mt of CO2.
The baseline study indicates that this level of reduction is
not likely to be achieved using conventional energy
management techniques alone.
Greenhouse abatement options
The following greenhouse gas saving initiatives
were identified:
■ voluntary measures may be expected to achieve a
reduction in emissions by 12 Mt of CO2 per annum
using a typical investment criteria of 2.5 years payback;
■ the level of reductions which may be expected to
be achieved using a positive NPV would be between
15 Mt and 20 Mt of CO2 per annum depending on
the applicable interest rates;
■ the most significant area of application for
greenhouse gas emissions abatement initiatives
is lighting, which shows a proportional emission
reduction potential of 70%;
■ no significant bias was found in the potential for
emission abatement between new and existing buildings
with the average being close to 50% for each type.
It should be noted that in an environment of carbon/
emissions trading, energy prices could rise. This would
facilitate the uptake of energy-saving technologies.
Priority areas for abatement
■ major component sectors – Public Administration
and Community Services and Retail
■ major building types – offices and hospitals
■ priority energy source – electricity
■ priority systems – lighting
■ equal priority to new and existing buildings
Embodied energy
Emissions related to embodied energy were found to
be of less significance for the more energy intensive
buildings such as offices, however a lack of substantive
data was identified.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
The way forward for reducing emissions
Sections of the commercial buildings sector which have
had a higher level of performance monitoring and
information dissemination have shown a sustained level of
improvement in efficiency. This fact, together with the other
trends identified in this study, indicate that a program of
voluntary measures reinforced by a program of awareness
and education and an expansion of mandatory minimum
performance standards for new building developments and
refurbishments would achieve the most cost-effective level
of emission reductions.
Further research
The study was conducted using existing databases and
available information. The breakdown of energy use by
building type and sub-sector was calculated by combining
several different sources with a heavy reliance on EMET’s
own databases. To improve the accuracy of the forecasts,
it is strongly recommended that a more comprehensive
study on the energy use within the sector be undertaken,
particularly in priority areas of energy application, and
emission reduction.
A lack of substantive data has been identified in the
area of embodied energy, and further research has
been recommended.
REFERENCES
Bush, Shane et al 1997, Australian Energy Consumption
and Production: Historical Trends and Projections to
2009-10, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics (ABARE), Canberra.
EMET Consultants and Solarch Group 1999, Baseline
Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Commercial
Buildings Sector (study commissioned by the Australian
Greenhouse Office), Canberra.
McArdle, S. A. et al 1993, Embodied Energy
Thesis: Case Study Analysis of the Embodied Energy
of Office Construction, School of Architecture and
Building, Deakin University, Geelong.
NSW Department of Energy 1996, Energy Use in the NSW
Commercial Sector, NSW Department of Energy, Sydney.
NSW Department of Energy 1998, Analysis of Energy
Use in the New South Wales Manufacturing Sector,
NSW Department of Energy, Sydney.