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Assigned Question: To what extent can CME initiation be predicted without detailed understanding of the CME initiation physics? (i.e., what is the usefulness of empirical and statistical tools?)Answer: A lot can be done.
Prediction
a) Can Do: CME Watch
b) Can’t Do: Exact Time and Energy
Predicting CMEs from MagnetogramsD. A. Falconer (UAH/MSFC/NSSTC), R. L. Moore, G. A. Gary, (NASA/MSFC/NSSTC)
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Magnetic Measures for CME Forecasting.
• Total Nonpotentiality (75%) Can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms
• Active Region Size (65%) Can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms
• Size-Normalized Nonpotentiality (65%)
• Complexity (??)
• Rate of Evolution (??)
• Combinations of 2 or more (need to analyze large sample size)Outline of Talk
1. Evidence that total nonpotentiality appears to be the primary determinant of future CME activity.
2. Refinement: Empirical determination of the probability of CME production as a function of total nonpotentiality.
3. Empirical determination of the probability of All Clear or Dangerous Space Weather (“Chance of Rain”.)
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Correlation of Total Nonpotentiality and Future CME Productivity
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Probability of CME Occurrence as a Function of Total Nonpotentiality
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Application: Forecasting Earth-Moon Space CME
All Clear