Sustainability, and the management of ‘scarceresources’ are becoming increasingly key issues that will shape the future. But of all the sectors in the economy, Transport is perhaps the one wherethese issues are most immediate.
To what extent can future technologies helpwith realistic solutions? Can the digital networkedeconomy play a part? BT believes so, and this articleexplores how.
Information & Communications Technology[ICT] can be a major enabler of ‘greenness’ and wewill look at new sorts of information ‘Webs’ thatcould be described as ‘Green Webs’. These networkswill manage new sorts of national infrastructures concerned with the more efficient management ofscarce resources affecting travel, transport, energy,water supply, recycling and industry supply chains.Not forgetting some very human resources such astime, which are more scarce than we would all like!
Technology enabling flexible workingPerhaps the most obvious green thing that ICT can already largely deliver is to ‘make geography history’, using services such as teleconferencing inplace of travel. For example, in the wake of the ter-rorist attack in New York, there was a global surge in videoconferencing. As computing, bandwidth and display technology improves then videoconfer-encing can become more effective, easier to use andin turn more popular. And, many of the outsourcing opportunities delivered through Asia would not be possible without associated ICT.
‘Human Connectedness’ is a research topicthat looks at this area, exploring future ways in whichpeople can interact at a distance. Of course all travelwill never be eliminated but substitution of traveldoes have an important part to play in conservingscarce resource.
Relieving the pressure on congested networksThe implications for transport organisations areclear: flexible working implies that the daily com-mute can be a thing of the past (or at least staggeringthe rush hour somewhat). Widespread broadbandInternet, secure intranets, efficient mobile devicesand increasing prevalence of WiFi hot spots on themove, increasingly decouples ‘what is done’ from‘where it is done’. Transport companies themselvescan benefit from this flexible working: reducing theirown office footprints and improving the efficiencyand performance of their workforce. BT has intro-duced a major flexible working initiative for its ownworkforce, giving them the tools and technology to
reduce travel and improve working conditions. Themore organisations that follow this route, the quick-er the burden on the transport networks is eased.
Real-time information improving travelThe digital networked economy can also allow travel to become more flexible, delivering person-alised advice in real-time travel. All that is lacking are motivated service providers to integrate the information (which is mostly in existing databasessomewhere). As the Semantic Web gradually putsmore and more human and machine readable information into the databases that underpin theWorld Wide Web then gradually artificial intelligence can be used to interpret the information. And as the digital networked economy embraces open standards, then this information will be more easily delivered to consumers. For transport companies,this promises to cut costs and improve the ‘experience’ of travel.
Information networks providing better management of scarce resourceIn the future, all domestic and commercial environ-ments will be covered with sensors, which via thisnew web will help intelligent software manage the scarce energy resources better. Perhaps a part of this web will concern transportation demand management. Current plans for road tolling and congestion charging are looking in a narrow sense at sharing the scarce road resources better by usingeconomic incentives linked to electronic paymentsystems. A wider perspective might include otherenergy issues such as whether a specific journeysomewhere may save some other energy elsewhere.For example, if the wind is blowing then maybe the
‘Green Webs’: how the digital networked economy will deliver a greener world
road transport associated with some industrial orsocial activities could be prioritised or incentivised to take maximum advantage.
Climate change is already having an impact on water supply, removal and treatment. Real-timeinformation supplied by wireless sensors is alreadybeing used to monitor the environment. In the futureweather, environmental and water sensing will connect to create an information web that not only concerns efficient resource control, but also has animportant public safety aspect as more extremeweather is experienced. Long range wireless broad-band (e.g. technologies such as WiMax) will ensurethat even remote places are connected to this digitalnetworked economy.
The information age has only just startedEverything discussed so far is highly likely, and willhappen sooner rather than later, but what of thelonger-term? The digital networked economy con-cerns what we call the ‘Information Age’. Through-out history, humanity has passed from age to age:the Neolithic Age, the Industrial Age and so on. The Information Age actually has a long way still to go and will be propelled forwards by revolutions in Biotechnology, Nanotechnology and CognitiveScience (or artificial intelligence). It will be the convergence of Nanotech, Biotech, Infotech and
Cognition (called NBIC) that sets the future econom-ic agenda and helps solve some of the problems wesee today – oil prices heading towards $100 a barrel,carbon emissions rising and chronic world poverty. What is pertinent about these ‘ages’ is that their rate of change is increasing. Simply put, there hasbeen more change in the last 20 years than in thelast 100 (see diagram).
BT’s Research Foresight Manager Robin Mannings looks at how information technology can be used to support sustainability and the efficient management of scarce resources in transportation and other key national infrastructures.
Changing the way resources are consumedWhat could this future look like? Electric vehicles will have new types of battery based on nanotech-nology. Highly localised production of food and manufactured goods will be possible with new generations of robotic machines. These will makeextended supply chains, with long distance ships,aircraft and trucks a thing of the past. Nuclear energy is not considered green by some, but it willalmost certainly be important as the only non-carbonresource that is not dependent on weather or geography. The digital networked economy is critical in improving how this resource is managedand maintained. For example, new generations ofintelligent networked robots will start to replacehumans, reduce costs and increase safety in operations within this field.
These ‘green webs’ of information are there-fore set to underpin many future activities and theyrely on good quality communications and reliablecomputing.As part of this, the transport industry isset to go through a paradigm shift through its use ofinformation technology. What are the implications?
The transport industry getting involvedBT’s Transport Sector Specialist, Nick Guite, comments.“Transportation is at the core of anycountry’s economy, it’s the backbone of enabling so many businesses and social activities to functioneffectively. So the providers of services that enabletravel will need to interact and participate with this‘green web’ of information and sensors. Across theworld, the transport industry is already embarking on projects that will have a major impact on howtravel will be perceived in the future. And in almostevery case, it is information technology that enablespositive change.” BT, along with many other organi-sations, is working to ensure that ICT is an enablerfor a more sustainable environment. For better man-agement of increasingly scarce resources, the digitalnetworked economy looks set to play centre stage.
Water PowerTextilesIron
Pace
of i
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1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 1999 2020
FIRST WAVE
SteamRailSteel
ElectricityChemicalsInternal-combustion engine
PetrochemicalsElectronicsAviation
Digital networksSoftwareNew media
60 years
SECOND WAVE THIRD WAVE FOURTH WAVE FIRTH WAVE
55 years 50 years 40 years 30 yearsFOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Contact BT’s transport sector marketing manager: [email protected]
SURF’S UPSchumpeter’s waves accelerate
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