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A World of Connections:The coming age of ubiquitous networking
Kenneth Neil Cukier
GLOCOM - October 22, 2007
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The Internet Today
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The Internet of Tomorrow
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* Computing and networking: PC & Web via wire1. few | 2. humans | 3. discrete sessions | 4. media
content and comms
* Changing to devices & sensors via wireless1. ever-present | 2. objects | 3. all the time | 4. data
about the world
Introduction
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We are laying the foundation…
For a new infrastructure…
We do not know how it will be used…
But it will surprise us!
Overview
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Outline
- Trends: computing, IT, processors, wireless- Taxonomy of technologies- Current and future uses:
* cars * factories* bodies
- Public Policy & Regulation- Conclusion
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Trends in Computing
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Trends in I.T.
* 850 million PCs* +1 billion Internet users* 2.8 billion mobile phone subscribers (1.6 million new mobile subscribers per day)* 10 billion microprocessors in 2007
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Trends in Processors: Moore’s Law
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Trends in Wireless Efficiency
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Trends in Wireless Cost
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Trends in Power Consumption
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Trends in Data vs. Voice Traffic
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Machines vs. Humans
- Transactions by computers exceed people- 12% of DNS traffic from computers alone- M2M to surpass people circa 2009-2011 - Cell phones communicate with base-stations
800 times per second (power management)- 400 billion DNS queries per day in 2010 (peak
load of 4 trillion)
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“Things that think want to link.”
-- Nicholas Negroponte, MIT, 1995
The Marriage of Chips and Communications
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Taxonomy of Wireless Technologies
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Examples
* GPS & Bluetooth chip: $1; size of match-head* Zigbee chip: $4, size of pinky-nail (1/4 cost &
size in 4 yrs* RFID tag: ¥5* RFID prototype: 0.05mm (groove in fingerprint)* RFID 2006 sales: 1 million (2007: 1.7 million)
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Uses
* Machine-to-machine: mousetraps; vending* Sensors: buildings; environment; military* New infrastructure: lighting; paint; dust* Human bodies: monitoring; activation* Cellphones: the gateway & controller
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Market Size by Volume
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Market Breakdown by Application
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Future Uses: Cars
* Accident notification* Predictive maintenance* Toll charges
* New uses: insurance rates; sub-prime loans; theft-prevention; traffic monitoring
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Chips in Cars
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Future Uses: Factories
* Lighting controls / Security alarms* Remote control / Operations monitoring* Predictive Maintenance
* New uses: how processes learn
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Chips in Factories
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Future Uses: Bodies
* Vital signs* Heart fluid-pressure monitoring* Alcohol and drug intake* Blood-sugar levels & insulin dosage
* New Uses: post-operative treatment
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Chips in Bodies
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Obstacles
* Who would do it?* Who will pay for it?* Do we need it?* Will it actually work??!!
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Public Policy
* Privacy* Data-security* Intellectual property* Information overload* Radio-waves and health* Spectrum availability and allocation___________________________________* Interconnection of separate systems* Computer memory & “forgetting”
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Regulation
* Who, what, where, when, how?* Bilateral vs. multilateral relationships* Public- vs. private-sector governance* The risk of regulating too soon
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Comparison of Cellphone & M2M units
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“People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and
underestimate what will happen in ten.”
-- Bill Gates, “The Road Ahead,” 1995
Conclusion
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Sources
Indicated by slide number:1, 4-6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 23, 25, 27-29, 31, 32, 33. -- N/A2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 16, 19. -- The Economist, 2007 (references for data
sources on published articles; contact speaker for more info)7. ITU, 200512. Texas Instruments (Gene Frantz, 2007). 13. ITU, 2005 (data from US FCC)20, Gartner, 200622. Automotive Engineering International24. BP, CommsDesign.com, 200426. VeriChip, Medtronic30. Jupiter Research, 2006