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A Toolkit Approach to Modeling Sustainable Forestry
Maximize innovation and minimize re-invention
Andrew FallLandscape Systems Ecologist
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser University, Canada and
Gowlland Technologies Ltd.
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Challenges for Landscape Management
large areas and long time frames complexity
• spatio-temporal feedback between pattern and process
many sources of uncertainty• spatial information, key processes, natural variability
competing values• cultural, conservation, resources, tourism• lack of optimal solutions
Yet, landscape managers must make decisions– land-use, sustainable resource management, endangered
species recovery, natural disturbance …
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– Extent: ~2 million ha
– spatial data• forest cover, roads, .etc
• management zones
– non-spatial data• growth and yield
• little ecological data
• little natural disturbance data
District 19a District 19a LabradorLabrador
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District 19a Issues: 20-year planDistrict 19a Issues: 20-year plan
• Sustainable forest managementNear pristine landscapeCo-management with Innu
• Key issues traditional values
(e.g. caribou) ecological integrity local economic development
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Productive Forest (ha) * Mean volume/ha
Mean harvest age
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Approach: Pan-Canadian+ TeamApproach: Pan-Canadian+ Team
BC
Québec
Leverage experience land-use planningmanagement
(timber, roads)disturbance successionwildlife scaling
stand/landscape
Caribou
Border Lks
WNMF
Finland
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Incorporating Complexity
.Tree Stand Average Landscape
Ecosystem
Community
Population
Plant Level
Stand level forestry
PR
OC
ES
SE
S
SCALE
Increasing Complexity
.Tree Stand Average Landscape
Ecosystem
Community
Population
Plant Level
Stand level forestry
PR
OC
ES
SE
S
SCALE
Increasing Complexity
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A “toolkit” approach to landscape modelling
Different models are best applied at different scales and for addressing different questions
• Static - GIS, inventory of current conditions
• Dynamic - changes due to succession, management, natural disturbance
• Stand scale - fine-scale processes, growth and yield
• Landscape - timber supply, habitat supply, pattern analysis
Need ways to links models and tools of different kinds
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Questions and Scenarios
Results
All Participants
Conceptual Models
Analysis
Domain Experts
Core Team Simulation
Experiments
Implemented Models
Collaborative Landscape AnalysisCollaborative Landscape Analysis
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Model “Toolkit” Approach
• Flexible association of models and model-building tools
• Coupled suite of relevant indicators reflecting values (ecological and social)
• Goal is the rapid assembly and development of models to address specific questions
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Social System
Processes
Model Tools
Assessment
Succession Growth and Yield Natural Disturbances Habitat selection
SORTIE (fine-scale) LANDIS (broad-scale)
BAP Toolbox
• Coarse Filter Indicators
• Fine Filter Indicators Caribou Habitat
Harvest scheduling Silvicultural treatments Road networking
PATCHWORKS Woodstock-Stanley Real Options
Annual Allowable Cut Costs/Benefits Job opportunities
Acceptability
Integrative Tools
SELES
Values & Perceptions Traditional Use Recreational Quality Caribou Populations
Access to Forests Maximum Local Job Creation
Ecological System
Economic System
What processes do
we model?
What modeling tools do
we apply?
What are the indicators success?
Available Data
Desire for SFM
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SELES: Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator
A general tool for building models of landscape dynamics
– a language for specifying models of landscape dynamics
and
– a simulation engine for running these models
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SELES: paradigm
share knowledge to build capacity• SELES is free
• models built in SELES are transparent
• courses are periodically given
• models built in SELES should be shared
maximize innovation and minimize re-invention
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Sustainable Forest Management Planning in
Labrador/Nitassinan
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District 19a of Labrador
SELES & SORTIE/BC
LANDIS
SORTIE/boreal
BAP & HSI
VLM/SELES
FINLANDIS
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Landscape Scale ObjectivesLandscape Scale Objectives
• scenarios: project landscape conditions
– integrate processes: spatial timber harvesting, fire, succession
– timber supply analysis
• scale: vertical and horizontal
– use results from stand-level and other landscape scale analyses
• indicators: produce ecological / timber indicators
– generate spatial time series: pipelining
– to assess spatial patterns of habitat
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Conceptual Model
Labrador District 19a SystemLabrador District 19a System
AlternativeManagementScenarios
Fire
Succession
SilvicultureTimberSupply
HarvestPatterns
RoadBuilding
SeedDispersal
I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values
I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values
Timber Sales Tourism
Local J obs
Caribou HabitatEcological I ntegrityBerry Production
AestheticsTraditional Use
Labrador District 19a SystemLabrador District 19a System
AlternativeManagementScenarios
Fire
Succession
SilvicultureTimberSupply
HarvestPatterns
RoadBuilding
SeedDispersal
I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values
I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values
Timber Sales Tourism
Local J obs
Caribou HabitatEcological I ntegrityBerry Production
AestheticsTraditional Use
I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values
I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values
Timber Sales Tourism
Local J obs
Caribou HabitatEcological I ntegrityBerry Production
AestheticsTraditional Use
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Harvesting Sub-Model• Strategic level
– spatial timber supply
– aim to capture current policy
• Spatial– spatial blocks
– roading
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Road DevelopmentRoad Development
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Road “Activity Levels”Road “Activity Levels”– Accumulate “local volume harvested”
upstream of each segment
– Estimate of activity level
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Model Integration
Lateral Pipelining(comparable scales)
Vertical Pipelining
different scales)
Growth & Yield
Lateral Pipelining(comparable scales)
Lateral Pipelining(comparable scales)
Vertical Pipelining
different scales)
Individual Tree
StandYield
CurvesYield
Projection
D19aLM(SELES)D19aLM(SELES)
Growth & Yield
(Canadian
FBP
LANDIS
SpreadRates
(Canadian
FBP
LANDIS
SpreadRates
SORTIESORTIE
Su
cc
es
sio
n,
Gro
wth
& Y
ield
Nei
ghbo
rhoo
d Ef
fect
s
Long
-dis
tanc
e D
ispe
rsal
& D
istu
rban
ce
Nei
ghbo
rhoo
d Ef
fect
s
Long
-dis
tanc
e D
ispe
rsal
& D
istu
rban
ce
Harvest Patterns
Fire Regime
Harvest Patterns
Fire Regime
Landscape
Patchworks
EconomicOptimization
Ecological ProcessPatchworks
EconomicOptimization
Ecological Process
Co
nd
itio
ns
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How to link tools: meta-modellingHow to link tools: meta-modelling
• file transfer
– non-spatial files
– spatial time-series
• parameters and scenario definition
• model embedding
• invocation
pipelining,loose coupling
tight coupling
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How to make an effective toolkitHow to make an effective toolkit
• people
tools used reflect skills of team and capacity building goals
• systems perspective
scale, complexity
• tool selection
a federation of models (cooperation) not competition