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A System Dynamics A System Dynamics Approach to Global WarmingApproach to Global Warming
(Noah) Junho Kang(Noah) Junho Kang
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IntroductionIntroduction
• Global Warming Debate
• “Greenhouse” gases
• Why should we worry?
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Purpose/GoalsPurpose/Goals
• Create a convincing model of global warming scenario
• “Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be understood easily and applied”
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Scope of the ProjectScope of the Project
• Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of time. The "effects" currently include, but is not limited to, global temperatures, frequency of hurricanes, methane release, and other consequences that will arise from increasing global temperature.
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BackgroundBackground
• Daisyworld
• Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations
• System Dynamics Modeling and Agent-based Modeling
• Netlogo’s System Dynamics Modeler
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System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle)(Carbon Cycle)
Ocean Atmosphere Fossil Fuel
Soil Land BiotaOut/In
(Negligible)
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Explanation of Variables UsedExplanation of Variables Used
• Fossil Fuel: Amount of Carbon present in Fossil Fuel
• Atmosphere: Amount of Carbon inside Atmosphere, directly affects Global Temperature
• Land Biota: Amount of Carbon present in Land organisms, like plants. Help control the amount of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration
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Explanation of Variables UsedExplanation of Variables Used
• Soil: Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by respiration (and slowly recovers the amount of Fossil Fuel).
• Ocean: Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane dissolved in water. Potentially very important, helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.
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System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Secondary)(Secondary)
Global Temperature
Ice Hurricanes
AlbedoOcean
TemperatureMethane
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Explanation of Variables UsedExplanation of Variables Used
• Global Temperature
• Amount of Ice: Directly affects albedo of earth
• Albedo: Reflectance of earth, ranging from 0-1
• Ocean Temperature
• Methane
• Hurricanes
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Other FactorsOther Factors
• Great ocean conveyer belt shut-down
• Changes in sunlight intensity
• Polar ice caps melt resulting in sudden salinity changes
• ?
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Netlogo ModelNetlogo ModelSecondary Model
Variables Used
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ResultsResults
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ResultsResults
• Temperature increase of about 1-5 degrees globally?
• Even if carbon output was to completely shut down now, temperature will keep on increasing for a while
• Results hint at a possibility of accelerating temperature increase, aided by melting of ice caps and release of methane gas