Download - A Supply Chain Technology Roadmap
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3rd PV Fab Managers Forum
9 March 2009 - Dresden, Germany
Would and ITRS-type PVroadmap make sense for the
industry?
Dr. Christopher CaseThe Linde Group
A supply chain technology roadmap
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All roadmaps are wrong some roadmaps are useful
Discussion itemsA bit of roadmap history
Roadmapping and innovation
The International Roadmap forSemiconductors (ITRS)
PV the parallel universe
Gases and chemical challenges
Supply chain roadmap straw man
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Roadmap(ping) history
Developed and first used in the 1970s byMotorola
By 1980 - in common use by Motorola, TI,
Intel and Japanese firms such as Hitachiand Toshiba
Early Motorola product roadmap
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Generic roadmap
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The ITRS sponsors and objective
Sponsored by the five leading chipmanufacturing regions:
Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the United
States Objective:
ensure cost-effective advancements in the
performance of the integrated circuit and theproducts that employ such devices, continuingthe health and success of the industry
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ITRS participation demographics
Over 1300 volunteer participants
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ITRS methodology
ITRS methodology
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ITRS 2008 Winter Conference 9 December 2008 Seoul. ROK
2008 Barrier/Nucleation/Resistivity
ALD barrier processes and metal capping layers for Cu arelagging in introduction
Resistivity increases due to scattering and impact of liners
No known practical solutions
1.92.12.42.62.93.33.74.34.8Barrier cladding thickness
Metal 1 (nm)
5.585.24.834.534.304.083.83.633.51Conductor effective resistivity
(-cm) Cu Metal 1
252832364045525968MPU/ASIC Metal 1 Pitch
(nm)(contacted)
201520142013201220112010200920082007Year of Production
0.91.01.11.21.3`1.51.7Barrier cladding thickness
Metal 1 (nm)
9.848.518.197.346.76.336.01Conductor effective resistivity
(-cm) Cu Metal 1
11131416182022MPU/ASIC Metal 1Pitch(nm)(contacted)
2022202120202019201820172016Year of Production
Courtesy: C Case, presentation
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Roadmap challenges
Overcoming red brick wall Path dependency: how to balance on-and off-roadmap
innovation Caution of becoming too unwieldy and prescriptive Roadmap may not be the best metaphor - implies
certainty Maintaining voluntary participation Increasing cost of roadmapping
Tends to emphasize incremental innovation Participation mix between suppliers and regions mixed
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Why is the roadmap successful?
Roadmap has adapted and evolved along with the industry
it serves. Driven by common purpose Technology specific but adaptable
Process is public
Collaborative Organised
Strong industry commitment ensures that it is kept up-to-date and reflects the most complete collective knowledge oftechnology needs.
Healthy beat-the-Roadmap competitive behavior helpsreinforce success.
Evolves with the industry now includes ESH and emergingmaterials
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Semiconductor innovation
ITRS roadmap emerged from the recognition thatthe productivity curve, known as Moores Lawcould only be maintained with sustainedtechnology efforts
Often offered as a model or template for otherroadmap efforts
Semiconductor technology innovation is usuallycharacterized as being evolutionary
Roadmapping serves this type of organizedinnovation well Collecting a great amount of knowledge in great
amount of detail
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PV the parallel universe
Similar technology age Crystalline and thin film improvements
evolutionary
Productivity enhancements from toolsuppliers and automation
20% + CAGR
Consortia and university technology pipeline
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No materials roadmap
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Supply Chain challenges order of success
Semiconductor success, roadmap driven
Flat panel displays success, no roadmap,leveraged learning from semiconductor
MEMS sufficient, not roadmap driven
Solid state lighting entering scaling phasewhich will challenge suppliers
Printable electronics - entering scalingphase which will challenge suppliers
Where can we adapt existing learning andstandards to PV?
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PV Supply Chain Roadmap Opportunities
Bulk solar cell fabrication or thin film PV cell fabrication
Chemical and gas general specifications Defect specifications
Purity specifications
Chemical hazardsUtilization
Silicon and polysilicon supply
Wafer manufacturing and slicing Substrate and cover glass specifications
TCO
Module assembly and balance of systems
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Silane demand forecast
Total PV Market Silane Demand
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
S
ilaneMarket(TPA)
C-Si TFS
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Key gases
typical supply modes
0.5% in H2 blend supplied in cylinders
On-site blending from high purity sourceDopants
On-site generator with liquid N2 back upNitrogen
On-site generator (Natural gas based)with compressed or liquid H2 backup
Hydrogen
NF3: 4000kg / 8000kg ISO modulesFluorine: On-site F2 generator
Cleaning gas
3000kg / 6000kg ISO modules
Pipeline to local production for >1GWSilane
Supply Mode for large scale (>350 MW)Gas
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Key gases
critical planning considerations
Fluorine
Helium
Dopants
Nitrogen
Hydrogen
NF3
Silane
Fab Ramp
Implications
Space
Required
Lead timeGlobal
Supply
Availability
SafetyGas
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Thin film silicon evolution of criticalmaterial consumption and supply modes
65MW 330MW 660MW 1,000MW
900
Bulk liquid (3-6mths)
4,000
Small N2 gen. (9-12mths)
8,000
Large N2 gen. (12-18mths)
12,000
300
Tube trailers / Small SMR
1,400
Medium SMR
2,700
Large SMR
4,000
50
ISO (6T)
250
Dedicated small scale prod.
(~24 months)
500
Dedicated small scale prod.
(~24 months)
750
64
NF3 ISO (8T)
Small on-site F2
320
Modular on-site F2
640
Modular on-site F2
1,025
NM3/hr
N2
Mode
NM3/hr
H2
Mode
T/yr
SiH4
Mode
T/yr
CleaningGas
Mode
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Crystalline silicon evolution of criticalmaterial consumption and supply modes
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Dopant mixtures - cylinder delivery
logistics are an issue for larger fabs
Typical delivery is in cylinders as 0.5%
PH3 or TMB mixtures in H2
65 MWp > 400 cylinders / yr
1GWp > 6,000 cylinders / yr
On-site blending with H2 reduces
cylinder handling and logistics
1GWp < 40 cylinders / yr
Blender
Blender
Hydrogen gas feed
100% dopant gas cabinet
Mixer
BufferChamber
PH3
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Key gases typical purities
99.9997%Inert gas for sputterArgon Ar (Nm3/yr)
99.97%
99.9998%
99.5%
99.999%
99.999%
99.9%
99.9997%
Purity
Active layer Si
deposition
Hydrogen H2 (Nm3/hr)
Pump purge andchamber vent
Nitrogen N2(Nm3/hr)
p-dopantTMB 0.5% in H2 (Nm3/yr)
n-dopantPH3 0.5% in H2 (Nm3/yr)
Co-dopantMethane CH4 (Nm3/yr)
Chamber cleanNitrogen trifluoride NF3(kg/yr)
Active layer Sideposition
Silane SiH4 (kg/yr)
RoleGas
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ITRS 2008 Update April, Konigswinter, Germany
Production Ramp-up Model and Technology Cycle Timing
Volume(P
arts/Month
)
1K
10K
100K
Months0-24
1M
10M
100M
Alpha
Tool
12 24-12
Development Production
Beta
Tool
Production
Tool
First
Conf.Papers
First TwoCompanies
ReachingProduction Volume(Wafers/Month)
2
20
200
2K
20K
200K
Source: 2005 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 3
Fig 3 2008 - Unchanged
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Summary - materials roadmap straw man
To ensure
lowest cost per watt availability and security of supply safety best usage of industry resources
Roadmap technical specifications including purity utilization per wafer/substrate delivery and packaging technology
new material requirements for TCO sustainability metrics GWP potential, manufacturingenergy
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All roadmaps are wrong
a photovoltaic materials supplychain roadmap would be useful
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25The content of this presentation is confidential and should not be distributed to a third party without the prior authorization of Linde
Linde provides essential infrastructure and materials forthe global photovoltaic industry
The Linde Group is a leading gases and engineering company with almost 52,000 employees working in around
100 countries worldwide. In FY2008 it achieved sales of EUR 12.7 billion.
In photovoltaics capabilities include: Global supply of critical materials and services
Innovation in gas and chemical based solutions
Turnkey engineering
Lowering emissions
Enabling environmentally sustainable manufacturing
Reducing manufacturing costs and improving yields
Lindes PV customer experience is leading with crystalline and
thin film Si customers in every major manufacturing geography.
36OEM C
610OEM B
814OEM A
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