Download - A short introduction into downscaling
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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A short introduction into downscaling
Hans von StorchInstitute for Coastal Research
GKSS Research CenterGermany
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
2
Overview•The perspective of anthropogenic climate change:
- needs for studying the sensitivity of the global system, and - the needs for adaptation on the regional
and local scale.
• Tools to do so: Global quasi-realistic climate models.
• Limitation in spatial resolution.
• Need for Downscaling: empirical and dynamical.
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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The expectation of anthropogenic climate change – little doubt left.
Different scenarios describing plausible, possible and different futures.
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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TAR-“Consensus” on precip change in 2100
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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Response: adaptation and mitigation
- Mitigation (reduction of emissions) as much a we can afford (economically, socially); long term effort; long term gains; international efforts
- Adaptation to present extreme events – short term effort, local effort; useful if future extreme events are getting worse.
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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Dynamical / empirical downscaling
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
8
Change in total number of storm peak events (in %) from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 simulated by a RCM/A2
Dynamical Downscaling
Empirical Downscaling
2 Examples
Projected change of flowering date of Galantis Nivalis in Northern Germany (days)
control2CO2
Rockel&Woth
Maak&
von S
torc
h
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Uppsala, 30 September 2005
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
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And now …
Frederik Wetterhall
on
• Statistical downscaling
• of precipitation in Sverige och China