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A new approach to local economic growth
Where have we been? Where are we going?
Andrew Carter
Centre for Cities
2nd December
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• The challenges facing UK cities over the next decade
• Key lessons on the nature of private sector jobs growth
• Why local enterprise partnerships are important and what they should do
• Where next following the Local Growth White Paper?
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Need different sources of job growth over the next decade compared to the last
Average net fall in manufacturing employment among English cities between 1998 and 2008 was 33%.
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That’s obviously not going to be the case over the next decade
Office for Budget Responsibility estimates 600,000 or 490,000 or 330,000 jobs could go from the public sector by 2015/16.
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Public sector cuts will hit every city – but vulnerability varies
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… this makes private sector job creation ever more pressing
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38% of net additional private sector jobs between 1998 and 2008.
London has been the top performer on private sector jobs growth in recent decades
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. . . But not only the South
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Top 10 performers on private sector jobs growth in North & Midlands
Most Core Cities have been doing fairly well in terms of total jobs added and percentage growth.
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Bottom 10 performers on private sector jobs growth in North & Midlands
Birmingham and Nottingham the exceptions among Core Cities – though there’s a question mark about the Nottingham data.
Places like Stoke and Burnley still struggling with industrial decline.
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Variable performance on unemployment
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Populations normally respond to changing economic opportunities
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Manufacturing is unlikely to be a major source of jobs growth
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Niche sectors are important but not the only answer
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Need to pay more attention to all firms
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LEPs – the latest institutional approach
• 24 local enterprise partnerships approved
• Most major cities covered
• London partnerships could follow
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The strength of Manchester as an economic centre generates labour market relationships with neighbouring areas:
Overall Commuting Patterns (ward level)
Natural economic areas are important
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Affects housing and business choices in the city region
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Variable Size, Scale and Complexity
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“Who pays should benefit, who benefits should pay”
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Some LEPs are better positioned for growth than others
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High skills means high wages
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High wages in the private sector except Oxford
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What should LEPs focus on?
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RGF is not the main event . . .
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What should LEPs focus on?
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Local Growth – what did the White Paper tell us?
• Not “everywhere will, or will want to, become an economic powerhouse”
• There will be no additional funding for partnerships
• Business rates could be localised as a growth incentive
• No real role for partnerships in skills policy
• Confirmed the creation of new ‘Growth Hubs’
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And what didn’t it resolve?
1. 2.
3. 4.
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So will local enterprise partnerships work?
• Rebalancing the economy geographically will not be an easy task - growth will continue to be uneven
• Success not clearly defined – so can they ‘not work’?
• Local enterprise partnerships should focus on improving the business environment – getting the basics right
• Central government should re-examine funding and powers
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A new approach to local economic growth
Where have we been? Where are we going?
Andrew Carter Centre for Cities
[email protected] 7803 4300