2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 12/21/2013
UCERF3.2: Hazard Implications
• Hazard comparison metrics• Inversion testing
– Convergence and eqn. set weighting
• Hazard maps– Influence of logic tree branches– Contributions to changes in hazard
• Hazard curves at sites
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 2
Hazard Evaluation: Metrics
• Ground motion values:– 2% in 50 years (Prob. Exceed.)– 10% in 50 years(Prob. Exceed.)– RTGM (1% Prob. Collapse in 50 yr.)
• Frequencies– PGA– 5Hz– 1Hz
• Curves: NEHRP (2009) Test Cities
Other WGCEP, PBR• Maps: Full logic-tree for PGA (1440 branches)
Partial tree for 1Hz (40 branches)
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 3
Hazard Metrics: RTGM
• Risk Targeted Ground Motion (RTGM)• Adopted by BSSC in conjunction with 2009 NEHRP
provisions• Ground motion for 1% probability of collapse in 50
years• Computed at frequencies: 5Hz and 1Hz• Scalar valued• Considers entire hazard curve
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 4
Hazard Curves: Inversion Convergence
2/21/2013
San DiegoPGA
San Francisco1Hz
• Examine variation over repeated inversion runs• Single “reference” branch• 100 runs
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 5
Hazard Curves: Inversion Eqn. Weights
2/21/2013
San DiegoPGA
San Francisco1Hz
• Examine effect of varying inversion equation weights• 11 weight variants
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 6
Hazard Maps: UC2 vs. UC3
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 7
Hazard Ratios: Grid vs. Fault Sources
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 8
Hazard Ratios: Grid Source Comparison
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 9
Hazard Ratios: Smooth Seis. Comparison
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 10
Branch Ratios: Fault Models
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 11
Branch Ratios: Deformation Models
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 12
Branch Ratios: Magnitude Scaling Rel.
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 13
Branch Ratios: Dsr (slip along rupture)
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 14
Branch Ratios: M≥5 rate
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 15
Branch Ratios: Off-fault Mmax
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 16
Branch Ratios: Smoothed Seis. models
2/21/2013
Hazard Ratio: Sources of Change
• Explain all non-yellow areas– Smoothed seismicity
model– New faults, slip changes,
or Mo rate changes– Methodological changes
Shows influence of Mmax & total M≥5 rate increase for gridded seismicity
UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only(and using only U2 Smoothed Seis.)
Sources of Change: Mmax & M≥5 rate
Shows influence of tighter U3 Smoothed Seis. Model
UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only(using both U2 & U3 Smoothed Seis.)
Artifact of “Deep seismicity” being excluded from denominator map
Sources of Change: Artifacts
UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only(using both U2 & U3 Smoothed Seis Map)
Influenced by UCERF3 smoothed- seismicity branch
Shows influence of tighter U3 Smoothed Seis. Model
Sources of Change: Grid Sources
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Big Lagoon-Bald Mtn:
Extended N ~60 km, and moment rate ~8 times higher on ABM
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
New faults:Klamath Falls Lake E & W
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Gillem and Cedar Mtn. faults have lower slip rates
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Four new faults
Likely Fault (moment rate doubled)
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
8 new faults(ABM rates high due to block boundary)
Maacama (20% increase in moment rate)
West Napa (factor of 3.5 increase in Mo rate, ABM about 4 times higher than others)
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Great Valley 07 (Orestimba) moment rate went down by ~60%
New Great Valley faults
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension
Complex combination of new faults and geometric and rate changes
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
New fault:Oceanic – West Hausna(NeoKinema rate more than 4 times higher than others)
3 new faults
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
New fault: Lost Hills
Mix of new faults & gridded sources
New faults in Mojave
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
New Fault:Cerro Prieto
New faults: San ClementeSan Diego Trough Santa Cruz Catalina Ridge San Pedro Basin
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Cucamonga: biggest methodological change
Death Valley Faults (North, South, and Black Mtn. Frontal): moment rates went down ~40%
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Anacapa Dume: moment rate down by factor of 3
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
Sources of Change: Fault Sources
Addition of, or moment rate change on faults
UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate
Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 34
Hazard Analysis Sites
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 35
Hazard Analysis Sites
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 36
Hazard Curves:
• Blue: Logic tree weighted mean hazard curve (UC3)
• Light Blue: Logic tree min max hazard curve range
• Red: UC2 logic tree weighted mean (solid), min and max (dashed) hazard curves
• Green: NSHMP reference value
• Ground motion histogram of logic tree branches summed over weights
• Tornado diagram
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 37
Hazard Curves: Los Angeles
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 38
Hazard Curves: San Francisco
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 39
Sites with changes > 10%
2/21/2013
Site Group change
Redding WGCEP 287%
Brookings WGCEP 257%
San Diego NEHRP 137%
Carson City WGCEP 127%
Long Beach NEHRP 122%
Vallejo NEHRP 121%
Northridge NEHRP 119%
Big Sur WGCEP 118%
Century City NEHRP 114%
Site Group change
San Bernardino WGCEP 88%
Malibu West WGCEP 86%
Eureka NEHRP 86%
Palmdale WGCEP 85%
Santa Rosa NEHRP 83%
Oakland NEHRP 82%
Death Valley NEHRP 64%
Cucamonga WGCEP 59%
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 40
Hazard Curves: Redding (x3)
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 41
Grid & Fault Conributions: Redding
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 42
Hazard Curves: San Diego (140%)
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 43
Hazard Curves: Vallejo (120%)
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 44
Hazard Curves: San Bernardino (88%)
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 45
Hazard Curves: Oakland (82%)
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 46
Hazard Curves: Cucamonga (50%)
2/21/2013
PGA 1Hz
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 47
Hazard Ratios: PGA vs. 1Hz
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 48
Hazard Ratios: PGA vs. 1Hz
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 49
Hazard Ratios: Logic-Tree Weight Variation
2/21/2013
2013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II 50
Continued UCERF3 analysis…
• Branch averaged solutions• Deaggregation• Stacked histograms of ground motion distribution at
sites for each logic tree node (branch correlations)• Repeat convergence and equation weight tests• Higher resolution maps around San Francisco and
Los Angeles• Hazard analyses online:
– http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/pmpowers/UCERF3.2/
2/21/2013