Download - 2042 Population Growth Forecast
Population trends and implications for
Bexar County
Jennifer “Jen” T. Martinez, Strategic Initiatives ManagerBexar County Economic DevelopmentJanuary 2013
2042 Forecast
1
New data
Key findings
What does this mean?
2
July 2013 U.S. Metro Economies report by U.S. Conference of Mayors shows steady growth in nation’s metro economies
Report prepared by IHS Global Insight
3
4
Historic African American Migration
Approximately five million southern blacks moved to the northern and western USA regions between 1915 and 1960 in search of a higher quality of life, particularly reflected via improved economic conditions..
Major destinations included Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and New York.
Throughout the 1940s migrants shifted far west to Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle.
Source: blackpast.org
The Latino Diaspora U.S. Hispanics on track to become majority by 2050(less than 40 years)
Current Minority-Majority States or Equivalents
Hawaii (77% minority)
District of Columbia (65% minority)
California (60% minority)
New Mexico (60% minority)
Texas(55% minority)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
5
Metropolitan:The general concept of a metropolitan area is that of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of social and economic integration with that core.
6
U.S. Regional Representation by Number of Metros
Texas 7% Southwest
4%
Southeast 27%
Northeast 17%
Midwest 24%
Pacific 21%
Total Metros = 363
7
U.S. metros with population greater than 1MTotal Metros = 363 51
in 2012
70in 2042
8
`
U.S. Metros w/Highest Population Percentage Change(2012-2042)
Special Note
14 or 70%Southern Region
4 or 20%Texas 9
`
U.S. Metros w/Lowest Population Percentage Change(2012-2042)
Special Note
10 or 50%Ohio region*
5 or 25%Michigan*Includes Wheeling, WV-OH 10
High Growth Texas MetrosAverage Population Change (2012-2042)
Rank Texas Metros % Change
1 Laredo, TX 97%
2 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 96%
3 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 91%
4 Brownsville-Harlingen, TX 79%
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington, TX 66%
6 Houston-Sugarland-Baytown, TX 64%
7 Fort Hood, TX 64%
8 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 63%
9 College Station, TX 58%
10 Tyler, TX 50%
11
Texas Metros versus Select State Economic Development Competitor Metros
Average Population Percent Change (2012-2042)
LocationAvg. Percent
Change(2012 - 2042)
No. Metros withChange Equal or
Greater Than 50%
Percent Metros withChange Equal or
Greater Than 50%
Metro with Highest Percent Change
Florida 62% 14 of 20 70% Palm Coast116%
Texas 44% 10 of 25 40% Laredo97%
S.Carolina 40% 2 of 10 20%Myrtle Beach-
N.Myrtle Beach-Conway, SC82%
California 38% 6 of 26 23% Riverside-Ontario83%
Illinois 14% 0 of 9 0% Bloomington-Normal31%
Ohio -2% 0 of 13 0% Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor26%
12
Texas vs U.S.Average Population Percent Change(2012-2042)
LocationAvg. Percent Change
(2012 - 2042)
No. Metros withPercent Change Equal or
Greater Than 50%
Percent Metros withPercent Change Equal or
Greater Than 50%
U.S.A. 28% 60 17%
Texas 44% 10 40%
13
`
2072 Snapshot: Top 5 Metros by PopulationEst. Population based on 2012-2042 % Change
Rank Location2042 Population
(thous.)2072 Population
(thous.)Percent Change
(2012-2042)
1New York-Northern New Jersey-
Long Island, NY-NJ20,728 22,469 8%
2 Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington, TX 11,034 18,261 66%
3 Houston-Sugarland-Baytown,TX 10,183 16,678 64%
4Los Angeles-Long Beach, Santa-
Ana, CA14,667 16,484 12%
5Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-
WI11,064 12,823 16%
19 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3,650 5,938 63%
14
2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M People
San Antonio, Texas #48th
15
2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M PeopleSan Antonio, Texas #24 in 2012
2012 Snapshot: Top 20 Metros based on Total Population
16
2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M PeopleSan Antonio, Texas #21 in 2042
2042 Snapshot: Top 20 Metros based on Total Population
17
2010: Top 20 Metros: Bachelors Degree or Higher as% of Total Adult (25+) Population for MSAs over 1 M PeopleSan Antonio, Texas #19 in 2072
2072 Snapshot: Top 20 Metros based on Total Population
18
“Adios, Ozzie & Harriet”Population Growth Means Minority Growth
Hispanics & Asians Represent 71% Population Gain (2000-2010)
19
Jennifer “Jen” T. MartinezStrategic Initiatives Manager
Bexar County Economic Development
T: 210.335.0872M: 210.268.6182
@BexarBiz @TMASC
Contact Information
20
Appendix 1:Regional Boundaries
PACIFIC MID-WEST
NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST SOUTHEAST
TEXAS
21
Appendix 2: Links
U.S. Metro Economies (core data)http://usmayors.org/metroeconomies/0712/FullReport.pdf
Hispanics from Coast to Coast Map (slide 5)http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443696604577645500654098514.html#
San Antonio Talent Migration Connectivity Profile (slide 15)http://therivardreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/San-Antonio-Talent-Migration-Connectivity-Profile.pdf
Majority-Minority Metros on the Rise Inforgraphic & Data (slide 20)http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2011/08/31-census-race-frey
22