Download - 2016 ncfef post primary briefing
2014 Election Updates & Insights
2016 Primary BriefingMarch 16, 2016
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and
analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact
North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]
(919) 614-0520www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2014 Election Updates & Insights
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What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?
fear … anxiety … anger
Certain Uncertaint
y
Factors in North Carolina’s political landscape
What were we expecting? Lots of attention from Presidential candidates
Presidential excitement mattered, but OH & FL ‘hail Mary’ for Kasich & Rubio overshadowed
Up-ballot voter ’anger’ might impact down-ballot
Not so much
Significance of GOP infighting
To be determined @NCFEF
@NCFEF2016 Early Voting
2016 Election – Outcome OverviewVotes Cast 2,300,955
TO (‘12=34.66%) 35.34%Presidential
GOPTRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO
40.24% 36.77% 12.68% 7.71%
Presidential DEM
CLINTON SANDERS54.59% 40.76%
Presidential LIB
JOHNSON NO PREF38.1% 36.5%
Connect NC 65.56% YES 34.44% NO
American Samoa 3/22/16 9Arizona 3/22/16 58
Utah 3/22/16 40North Dakota 4/1/16 28
Wisconsin 4/5/16 42New York 4/19/16 95
Connecticut 4/26/16 28Delaware 4/26/16 16Maryland 4/26/16 38
Pennsylvania 4/26/16 71Rhode Island 4/26/16 19
GOP DELEGATES Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson
1,237to Win
2,472 Total 621 396 168 138 8
Indiana 5/3/16 57Nebraska 5/10/16 36
West Virginia 5/10/16 34Oregon 5/17/16 28
Washington 5/24/16 44California 6/7/16 172Montana 6/7/16 27
New Jersey 6/7/16 51New Mexico 6/7/16 24South Dakota 6/7/16 29
Surfing Theory of Politics
@NCFEF
2016 Primary: US Senate
Paul Wright
Larry Holmquis
t
Richard Burr (I)
GregBrannon
@NCFEF
61.4% 8.5% 4.9% 25.2%
2016 Primary: US Senate
@NCFEF
ChrisRey
Deborah Ross
Kevin Griffin
Ernest T. Reeves
9.4% 16.5% 62.4% 11.7%
Sean Haugh
NC Congressional Districts
Filing = March 16 – 25
Primary = June 7
CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28 RobinsonGuilford
21 ClarkHoke
19 MeredithCumberland
8 RabonBrunswick
50 DavisMacon
24 GunnAlamance
39
Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg
40 Waddell*Mecklenburg
5 DavisGreene
1 CookBeaufort
9 Lee*New Hanover
46 DanielBurke
47 HiseMitchell
31
KrawiecForsyth
38 FordMecklenburg
13 Smith*Robeson
25 McInnis*Richmond
15 Alexander*Wake
27 WadeGuilford
2 SandersonPamlico
44
CurtisLincoln
14 BlueWake
23 FousheeOrange
18 BarefootWake
10 B. JacksonSampson
11Newton
(NR)Wilson
45 Soucek (NR)Watauga
35
TuckerUnion
20 McKissickDurham
22 WoodardDurham
12 RabinHarnett
6 BrownOnslow
48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson
42
Wells*Catawba
4 BryantNash
37 J. JacksonMecklenburg
17 BarringerWake
41 TarteMecklenburg
36 Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus
33
Bingham (NR)Davidson
3Smith-
Ingram*Edgecombe
16 Stein (NR)Wake
26 BergerRockingham
43 HarringtonGaston
30
RandlemanWilkes
32 Lowe*Forsyth
49Van
Duyn*Buncombe
*freshmanNR = not running in 2016
7 PateWayne
34 BrockDavie
29
TillmanRandolph
9 SENATE REPUBLICAN WINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INC LBR
SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0
4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INC LBR
SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0
SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD 01 CO 1,165 80.0 Bill Cook Brownie Futrell
SD 02 SR 3,151 90.0 Norman Sanderson Dorothea White
SD 09 LR 13,579 90.0 Michael Lee Andrew Barnhill
SD 12 LR 15,450 90.0 Ronald Rabin Susan Byerly
SD 15 LR 16,411 65.0 John Alexander Laurel Deegan-FrickeBrad Hessell
SD 17 LR 27,427 80.0 Tamara Barringer Susan EvansSusan Hogarth
SD 18 CO 16,934 90.0 Chad Barefoot Gil Johnson
SD 19 CO 5,560 78.9 Wesley Meredith Toni Morris
SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD 24 SR 4,950 95.0 Rick Gunn John Thorpe
SD 25 CO -2,603 90.0 Tom McInnis Dannie Montgomery
SD 27 SR 9,258 90.0 Trudy Wade Michael Garrett
SD 30 SR -2,189 90.0 Shirley Randleman Michael Holleman
SD 41 SR 28,598 90.0 Jeff Tarte Jonathan HudsonChris Cole
SD 46 SR -2,428 80.5 Warren Daniel Anne Fischer
SD 47 SR -1,473 85.8 Ralph Hise Mary Jane Boyd
SD 50 SR 865 87.5 Jim Davis Jane Hipps
SENATE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
SD 13 SD -553 54.2 Jane W. Smith Danny Earl (JR) Britt
SD 20 SD 9,597 32.5 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. Barbara Howe
SD 22 SD 14,891 52.3 Mike Woodard Greg Doucette
SD 23 SD 11,812 37.2 Valerie P. Foushee Mary Lopez Carter
SD 28 SD 7,432 28.6 Gladys A. Robinson Devin R. King
SD 37 SD 15,790 38.2 Jeff Jackson Bob Diamond
SD 49 SD 8,910 45.0 Terry Van Duyn William Meredith
SENATE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
SD 31 SR 5,819 85.8
Joyce Krawiec (I)
Dempsey Brewer
Peter Antinozzi
62.3%
27.3%
10.4%
SD 35 SR 16,584 90.8Tommy Tucker (I)
Matt Daly
61.6%
38.4%
SD 44 SR 8,165 90.0David L. Curtis (I)
Chris Carney
51.1%Nic Haag
49.9%
SENATE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
SD 04 SD -3,495 45.0Angela R. Bryant (I) James Mills
81.2%Richard Scott
18.8%
SD 21 SD 5,996 77.5
Ben Clark (I)
Eronomy Smith
Naveed Aziz
49.9%
Dan Travieso5.9%
44.2%
SD 38 SD 22,663 70.0Joel Ford (I)
Roderick Davis
52.1%Richard Rivette
47.9%
SD 40 SD 12,219 35.8Joyce Waddell (I)
Nasif Majeed
64.6% Marguerite Cooke35.4%
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
SD 11NEWTON (R)
SR
4,638
79.4
Benton Sawrey 48.4%Rick Horner 51.6%Albert Pacer 100%
SD 16STEIN (D) SD 17,905
40.0
Jay Chaudhuri 63.1%Ellis Hankins 36.9%Eric Weaver 100%
SD 33BINGHAM (R) SR
791
85.8
Cathy Dunn 40.1%Joe D. Kennedy 27.7%Eddie Gallimore 32.2%
Jim Beall Graham 100%
SD 36HARTSELL (R) SR 14,784 85.5
Andrew W. Platek 34.9%Robert Brown 65.1%
Amy Blake 21.4%Parish Moffitt 11.6%
Paul R. Newton 37.0%Scott C. Aumuller 30.0%
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
SD 39RUCHO (R)
SR
13,641 83.0
Lloyd Scher 100%
Dan Bishop 100%
SD 45SOUCEK (R) SR -519 85.0
Deanna Ballard 52.9%
Ken Boham 47.1%
Art Sherwood 100%
SD 48APODACA
(R)SR 7,675
95.0
Chuck Edwards 56.2%
Dennis Justice 9.9%
Lisa Carpenter Baldwin 33.9%
Norman Bossert 100%
STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. HallDurham
114
FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman
Richmond118
PresnellYancey
55
BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell
Burke110
HastingsGaston 96 Adams*
Catawba
106
CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 39 JacksonWake
49
Pendleton*Wake
14
ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman
Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp
Union
102
CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter
Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 Murphy**
Pitt36
DollarWake 15 Shepard
Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft
Carteret
31 MichauxDurham 32 Baskerville (NR)
Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45
SzokaCumberland
40
AvilaWake
109
BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**
Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson
33 GillWake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 54 ReivesLee
63
RossAlamance
37
Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)
Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87 Robinson
Caldwell
99 MooreMecklenburg
100
Cotham (NR)Mecklenburg 44 Richardson**
Cumberland53
LewisHarnett
62
BlustGuilford 16 Millis
Pender104
Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*
Edgecombe COMP (8) 93
JordanAshe
111
MooreCleveland 83 Johnson
Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley
Iredell
60 Brockman*Guilford 47 Graham
Robeson 119 QueenHaywood 1 Steinburg
Chowan75
LambethForsyth 19 Davis
New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer
Catawba
58 Johnson*Guilford 30 Luebke
Durham 2 Yarborough*Person
65
JonesRockingham
88
BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon
Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn
Union
107
AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale
Craven25
CollinsNash 59 Hardister
Guilford108
TorbettGaston 94 Elmore
Wilkes
56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 92 JeterMecklenburg
51
Salmon*Harnett
103
BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth
Guilford105
Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24Farmer-
ButterfieldWilson
7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager*
Buncombe64
RiddellAlamance
Catlin (NR)New Hanover 52 Boles
Moore 97 SaineLincoln
48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 6 Tine (NR)Dare
116
B. Turner*Buncombe
HagerRutherford
117
McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson
McDowell
71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 8 S. MartinWilson
35
MaloneWake
Whitmire (NR)Transylvania
120
West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*
Yadkin
57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 41 Adcock*Wake 28 Langdon (NR)
Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson
27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall
Wake *freshman **appointedNR = not running in 2016
90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101
EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)
Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
23 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERSDISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7HD 078 SR Allen McNeill 85.8HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9HD 080 SR Sam Watford 90.0HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0HD 108 SR John A. Torbett 95.0HD 110 SR Kelly Hastings 90.0HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8
19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBRHD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGERHD 002 COMP -1,605 85 Larry Yarborough Joe ParishHD 008 COMP 1,861 90 Susan Martin Charlie Patt FarrisHD 041 COMP 15,176 54.2 Gale Adcock Chris ShoffnerHD 115 COMP 3,778 50 John Ager Frank MoretzHD 119 COMP 1,119 48.3 Joe Sam Queen Mike ClampittHD 044 LD 1,998 50 Billy Richardson Jim ArpHD 054 LD 5,531 50 Robert T. Reives II Wesley SeawellHD 001 LR 768 92.5 Bob Steinburg Sam DavisHD 003 LR 368 71.7 Michael Speciale Marva Fisher BaldwinHD 035 LR 14,184 69.2 Chris Malone Terrence EverittHD 045 LR 2,902 90 John Szoka Roberta Waddle
HD 049 LR 2,346 66.8 Gary Pendleton Cynthia BallDavid Ulmer
HD 065 LR -2,516 85.8 Bert Jones H. Keith Duncan
HD 118 LR 508 85.8 Michele D. Presnell Rhonda C. Schandevel
HD 051 LR 5,706 76.7 Brad Salmon John Sauls
HD 116 LR 5,296 63.3 Brian Turner Kay Olsen
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLYDIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD 010 SR 8,137 92.5 John R. Bell Evelyn PaulHD 013 SR 2,265 95.0 Pat McElraft Rodney AlexanderHD 015 SR 811 90.0 Phillip Shepard Dan WhittenHD 016 SR 7,204 81.7 Chris W. Millis Steve UngerHD 025 SR 830 85.5 Jeff Collins Jim LeeHD 040 SR 13,125 73.9 Marilyn Avila Joe JohnHD 055 SR 683 85.8 Mark Brody Kim HargettHD 059 SR 5,676 81.7 Jon Hardister Scott JonesHD 069 SR 6,387 90.8 Dean Arp Gordon DanielsHD 070 SR 605 85.8 Pat B. Hurley Lee BohnsackHD 074 SR 1,963 85.8 Debra Conrad Marilyn BakerHD 086 SR -161 85.5 Hugh Blackwell Tim BarnsbackHD 088 SR 1,353 92.5 Rob Bryan Mary BelkHD 090 SR -737 90.0 Sarah Stevens Vera Smith ReynoldsHD 094 SR -729 85.0 Jeffrey Elmore Michael LentzHD 103 SR 6,714 90.5 Bill Brawley Rochelle RivasHD 109 SR 1,476 77.5 Dana Bumgardner Susan Maxon
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = GENERAL ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER
HD 007 SD -72 44.2 Bobbie J. Richardson William D. Hancock II
HD 011 SD 5,646 54.2 Duane Hall Brian Lewis
HD 018 SD 4,737 68.9 Susi Hamilton Gerald Benton
HD 030 SD 11,548 11.3 Paul Luebke Elissa Fuchs
HD 034 SD 2,625 29.1 Grier Martin Bill Morris
HD 038 SD 9,300 35.8 Yvonne Lewis Holley Olen Watson III
HD 050 SD 6,127 51.8 Graig R. Meyer Rod Chaney
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY ONLY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT
HD 021 SD -8 62.5 Larry M. Bell (I) Scotty Smith
85.5%14.5%
HD 022 CO 176 90.0 William Brisson (I) Ben Snyder
53.5%46.5%
HD 024 SD 1,765 42.7 Jean Farmer-Butterfield (I) Kandie Smith
61.9%38.1%
HD 027 SD -3,357 80.0 Michael H. Wray (I) Franklin Williams Jr.
52.6%47.4%
HD 033 SD 8,249 45.0Rosa U Gill (I) Bernard Allen IIIShirley Hicks
65.5%12.6%21.9%
HD 047 SD 509 55.8 Charles Graham (I) Randall Jones
58.0%42.0%
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 058 SD 1,995 52.3Ralph C. Johnson (I)
Amos Quick
28.6%
71.4%
HD 101 SD 10,098 45.0Beverly Miller Earle (I)
Steven Jones
78.1% Justin Dunn20.9%
HD 107 SD 8,900 58.3Kelly Alexander (I)
Robert Blok
90.5%
9.5%
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 017 SR 7,812 90.0 Frank Iler (I) Marion Davis
67.8%Charles Warren
32.2%
HD 036 SR 6,399 85.8 Nelson Dollar (I) Mark Villee
55.8% Jennifer FerrellBrian Irving44.2%
HD 052 SR 4,640 90.0 Jamie Boles (I) John Zumwalt
53.7%46.3%
HD 053 LR 7,740 90.5 David R. Lewis (I) Chuck Levorse
78.6%Jon Blum
21.4%
HD 067 SR -472 81.7 Justin P. Burr (I) Lane Burris
50.9%Carson R. Snyder
49.1%
HD 073 SR -437 95.0 Lee Zachary (I) Dwight Shook
51.5%48.5%
HD 077 SR 140 81.7 Harry Warren (I) Andrew Poston
71.4%28.6%
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 017 SR 7,812 90.0 Frank Iler (I) Marion Davis
67.8%Charles Warren
32.2%
HD 036 SR 6,399 85.8 Nelson Dollar (I) Mark Villee
55.8% Jennifer FerrellBrian Irving44.2%
HD 052 SR 4,640 90.0 Jamie Boles (I) John Zumwalt
53.7%46.3%
HD 053 LR 7,740 90.5 David R. Lewis (I) Chuck Levorse
78.6%Jon Blum
21.4%
HD 067 SR -472 81.7 Justin P. Burr (I) Lane Burris
50.9%Carson R. Snyder
49.1%
HD 073 SR -437 95.0 Lee Zachary (I) Dwight Shook
51.5%48.5%
HD 077 SR 140 81.7 Harry Warren (I) Andrew Poston
71.4%28.6%
HOUSE INCUMBENTS = PRIMARY
DIST CVB POP +/- INC LBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER
HD 082 SR 9,031 69.2 Larry G. Pittman (I) Michael Fischer
52.9% Earle Schecter47.1%
HD 083 SR 4,343 90.0 Linda P. Johnson (I) Nathan Stone
61.6% Jeremy Hachen38.4%
HD 084 SR 1,890 90.0 Rena W. Turner (I) Kirk Sherrill
63.8% John Wayne Kahl36.2%
HD 087 SR -1,545 87.5 George S. Robinson (I)Destin Hall
40.3%59.7%
HD 092 CO 15,160 86.7 Charles Jeter (I) Tom Davis
50.2%Chaz Beasley
49.8%
HD 093 LR 1,326 81.7 Jonathan C. Jordan (I) Lew Hendricks
73.9%Sue Counts
26.1%
HD 095 SR 5,348 95.0 John A. Fraley (I) David W. Thompson
68.5%31.5%
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULT
HD 006TINE (U) CO 238 90.0
Judy Justice 28.2%Warren Judge 71.8%Ashley Woolard 36.7%Beverly Boswell 39.3%
HD 020CATLIN (R) SR 6,747 78.9 Holly Grange 62.0%
Tammy Covil 38.0%
HD 026DAUGHTRY (R) SR 8,091 95.0
Dennis Nielsen 40.4%Donna McDowell White 59.6%Rich Nixon 100%
HD 028LANGDON (R) SR 4,368 85.8
Jimmie M. Massengill 49.6%Patricia Oliver 50.4%Gregory A. Dail 8.1%Larry C. Strickland 50.1%Tony Braswell 41.8%
HD 032B’VILLE (D) SD -1,692 40.8
Gary Lamont Miles Sr 32.7%Terry Garrison 67.3%
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULT
HD 37STAM (R) SR 12,046 85.8
Linda Hunt-Williams 100%Jonathan Graham 100%Robert Rose 100%
HD 46WADDELL (D) SD -1,093 85.0
Brenden Jones 100%Tim Benton 100%Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr 100%
HD 81R. BROWN (R) SR 663 80.0
Larry W. Potts 52.3%Sharon Phillips Pearce 20.0%Tyler Lohr Forrest 27.7%
HD 100COTHAM (D) SD 1,692 59.3
Billy Maddalon 46.7%John Autry 53.3%
HD 104BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0
Andy Dulin 100%Peter Noris 100%
HD 105SCHAFFER (R) SR 12,855 85.0
Scott Stone 52.2%Tim Morgan 47.8%Connie Green-Johnson 100%
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INC LBR CANDIDATES RESULTS
HD 113WHITMIRE (R) SR 757 90.0
Cody Henson 64.7%
Coty James Ferguson 35.3%
Maureen Mahan Copelof 100%
HD 120WEST (R) SR -573 95.0
Elliott J. Southworth 26.1%
Kevin Corbin 73.9%
*HD 9B. BROWN (R) LR 3,747 90.0
Brian Farkas 61.8%Walter E. Gaskins 38.2%Greg Murphy* 100%
*HD 91H’WAY (R) SR 1,050 85.8
Ira (Bubba) Tilley 25.6%
Kyle Hall* 43.8%
Robert Knight 30.6%
Eugene Russell 100%
2016 Election – Outcome OverviewSR LR COMP LD SD
NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14
12R 2D8
3R 4D 1U 2 37Winners 28R 2R 1D 29DINC GEN 23R 9R 2D 6
3R 3D 2D 8D
NC Senate34 – 16 24 6 4R 0 16Winners 9R 2R 4DINC GEN 9R 4R 4R 11D
2016 Election: Likely Partisan Outcome
Current Partisan Count
Strong REP
Lean REP COMP Lean
DEMStrong DEM
NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14 8
3R 4D 1U 2 37NC HouseJan 2017 71
PROB2
LIKELY4
TOSS UP4
LIKELY39PROB
NC Senate34 – 16 24 6 4
4 GOP 0 16NC SenateJan 2017 26
PROB7
LIKELY1
TOSS UP0
LIKELY16PROB
@NCFEF
Statewide Executive Branch
GOV
Roy Cooper – 68.8%Ken Spaulding –
32.2%
Pat McCrory – 81.8%Robert Brawley –
10.6%Charles K. Moss – 7.7%
Lon Cecil
LT GOV
Linda Coleman – 51.1%
Holly Jones – 28.8%Robert E. Wilson –
10.5%Ronald Newton – 9.6%
Dan ForestJJ
Summerell
AG OPEN
Josh Stein –53.5%Marcus Williams –
46.5%Buck Newton – 54.9%
Jim O’Neill – 45.1%
INS Wayne Goodwin
Mike Causey – 41.2%Joe McLaughlin – 32.9%
Ron Pierce – 25.9%
Statewide Executive BranchAUD Beth Wood Chuck Stuber
SOS Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia – 61.6%
A.J. Daoud – 38.4%
LAB
Charles Meeker – 56.6%
Mazie Ferguson – 43.4%Cherie Berry
AGR Walter Smith Steve Troxler – 68.8%
Andy Steven – 31.2%
SPIJune Atkinson – 79.8%Henry Pankey – 20.2%
Mark Johnson – 53.4%Rosemary Stein – 32.8%J. Wesley Sills – 13.8%
ST OPEN
Dan Blue III – 58.5%Ron Ellmer – 41.5% Dale Folwell
Statewide Executive BranchGOV Roy Cooper (68.8%) Pat McCrory
(81.8%) Lon CecilLT GOV Linda Coleman (51.1%) Dan Forest JJ Summerell
AG OPEN Josh Stein (53.5%) Buck Newton (54.9%)INS Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey (41.2%)
AUD Beth Wood Chuck Stuber
SOS Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia (61.6%)
LAB Charles Meeker (56.6%) Cherie Berry
AGR Walter Smith Steve Troxler (68.8%)
SPI June Atkinson (79.8%) Mark Johnson (53.4%)ST OPEN Dan Blue III (58.5%) Dale Folwell
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
Cooper
Victory
Strong US Senate
Candidate
DEM Prez Candidate Fights for
NCSuburbs = Domestic
Issues
McCrory
Victory
Voters Positive on
NC Economy
Parity in Outside $
No GOP Fracture over Prez
@NCFEF
2012: 50.6% 48.8% 1.0%
2016 Election: State Supreme Court
Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to
retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds(Guilford)
@NCFEF
Linda H. Stephens - D1st Term (Wake)
Phil Berger, Jr.Orange - REP
Bob Hunter - R1st Term [2014]
(Guilford)
Abe JonesWake – DEM
Richard Dietz - R1st Term (Forsyth)
Vince RozierWake – DEM
Valerie Zachary - R1st Term [2015]
(Yadkin)
Rickye McKoy-MitchellMecklenburg – DEM
2016 Election: Court of Appeals
@NCFEF
What to watch?
How GOP nomination process plays out
Impact on ‘enthusiasm gap’
If Trump is the GOP nominee, how does that impact NC’s GOP candidates
May put NC (more) in play
Significance of GOP infighting
Within GOP House Caucus, within GOP HQ
What to watch?
Does US Senate race become a target
Don’t think so, except that NC = purple
Will resources matter most in Legislative races
Yes
Will a strong GOP slate for Council of State help up-ballot candidates?
Couldn’t hurt
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF