Download - 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast
2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast
November 1, 2012
2 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 2
Speaker
Randall Oliphant, Executive Chairman
3 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 3
Cautionary statement
All monetary amounts in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain information contained in this presentation, including any information relating to New Gold's future financial or operating performance may be deemed "forward looking". All statements
in this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, that address events or developments that New Gold expects to occur, are "forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements
are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, but not always, identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "plans", "expects", "is expected", "budget",
"scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates", “projects”, “potential”, "believes" or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results
"may", "could", "would", “should”, "might" or "will be taken", "occur" or "be achieved" or the negative connotation. All such forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates
of management as of the date such statements are made and are subject to important risk factors and uncertainties, many of which are beyond New Gold's ability to control or predict.
Forward-looking statements are necessarily based on estimates and assumptions that are inherently subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause
actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, without
limitation: significant capital requirements; fluctuations in the international currency markets and in the rates of exchange of the currencies of Canada, the United States, Australia, Mexico and
Chile; price volatility in the spot and forward markets for commodities; impact of any hedging activities, including margin limits and margin calls; discrepancies between actual and estimated
production, between actual and estimated reserves and resources and between actual and estimated metallurgical recoveries; changes in international, national and local government
legislation in Canada, the United States, Australia, Mexico and Chile or any other country in which New Gold currently or may in the future carry on business; taxation; controls, regulations and
political or economic developments in the countries in which New Gold does or may carry on business; the speculative nature of mineral exploration and development, including the risks of
obtaining and maintaining the validity and enforceability of the necessary licenses and permits and complying with the permitting requirements of each jurisdiction that New Gold operates,
including, but not limited to obtaining the necessary permits for the Blackwater project, in Mexico where the Cerro San Pedro mine has a history of ongoing legal challenges related to our EIS
and Chile where the courts have temporarily suspended the approval of the environmental permit for the El Morro project; the lack of certainty with respect to foreign legal systems, which may
not be immune from the influence of political pressure, corruption or other factors that are inconsistent with the rule of law; the uncertainties inherent to current and future legal challenges the
company is or may become a party to,; diminishing quantities or grades of reserves; competition; loss of key employees; additional funding requirements; actual results of current exploration or
reclamation activities; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; accidents; labour disputes; defective title to mineral claims or property or contests over claims to mineral
properties. In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the business of mineral exploration, development and mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual
or unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold bullion losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance or inability to obtain insurance to cover these risks) as well as "Risk
Factors" included in New Gold's disclosure documents filed on and available at www.sedar.com. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results and
future events could materially differ from those anticipated in such statements. All of the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are qualified by these cautionary statements.
New Gold expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise, except in accordance
with applicable securities laws.
4 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 4
Cautionary statement (cont’d)
CAUTIONARY NOTE TO U.S. READERS CONCERNING ESTIMATES OF MEASURED, INDICATED AND INFERRED RESOURCES
Information concerning the properties and operations discussed in this presentation has been prepared in accordance with Canadian standards under applicable Canadian securities laws, and
may not be comparable to similar information for United States companies. The terms "Mineral Resource", "Measured Mineral Resource", "Indicated Mineral Resource" and "Inferred Mineral
Resource" used in this presentation are Canadian mining terms as defined in accordance with NI 43-101 under guidelines set out in the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum
("CIM") Standards on Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves adopted by the CIM Council on December 11, 2005. While the terms "Mineral Resource", "Measured Mineral Resource",
"Indicated Mineral Resource" and "Inferred Mineral Resource" are recognized and required by Canadian regulations, they are not defined terms under standards of the United States
Securities and Exchange Commission. Under United States standards, mineralization may not be classified as a "reserve" unless the determination has been made that the mineralization
could be economically and legally produced or extracted at the time the reserve calculation is made. As such, certain information contained in this presentation concerning descriptions of
mineralization and resources under Canadian standards is not comparable to similar information made public by United States companies subject to the reporting and disclosure requirements
of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. An "Inferred Mineral Resource" has a great amount of uncertainty as to its existence and as to its economic and legal feasibility. It
cannot be assumed that all or any part of an "Inferred Mineral Resource" will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of Inferred Mineral Resources may not
form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. Readers are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of Measured or Indicated Resources will ever be converted into Mineral
Reserves. Readers are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an "Inferred Mineral Resource" exists, or is economically or legally mineable. In addition, the definitions of "Proven
Mineral Reserves" and "Probable Mineral Reserves" under CIM standards differ in certain respects from the standards of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
TECHNICAL INFORMATION
The scientific and technical information in this presentation has been reviewed by Mark Petersen, a Qualified Person under National Instrument 43-101 and an employee of New Gold.
(1) TOTAL CASH COSTS
“Total cash costs” per ounce figures are calculated in accordance with a standard developed by The Gold Institute, which was a worldwide association of suppliers of gold and gold products
and included leading North American gold producers. The Gold Institute ceased operations in 2002, but the standard is widely accepted as the standard of reporting cash cost of production in
North America. Adoption of the standard is voluntary and the cost measures presented may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. New Gold reports total
cash costs on a sales basis. Total cash costs includes mine site operating costs such as mining, processing, administration, royalties and production taxes, but is exclusive of amortization,
reclamation, capital and exploration costs. Total cash costs are reduced by any by-product revenue and are then divided by ounces sold to arrive at the total by-product cash costs of sales.
The measure, along with sales, is considered to be a key indicator of a company’s ability to generate operating earnings and cash flow from its mining operations. This data is furnished to
provide additional information and is a non-IFRS measure. Total cash costs presented does not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and may not be comparable to similar
measures presented by other mining companies. It should not be considered in isolation as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS and is not necessarily
indicative of operating costs presented under IFRS. A reconciliation will be provided in the MD&A accompanying the quarterly financial statements.
(2) PEA – ADDITIONAL CAUTIONARY NOTE
This note regarding the preliminary economic assessment (PEA) is in addition to cautionary language already included within the presentation as required under NI 43-101. The Blackwater
PEA is preliminary in nature and includes Inferred mineral resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable
them to be categorized as mineral reserves, and there is no certainty that the PEA based on these mineral resources will be realized. Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not
have demonstrated economic viability.
(3) CASH GENERATED FROM OPERATIONS BEFORE WORKING CAPITAL
Cash generated from operations before working capital is a non-IFRS performance measure which the company believes provides additional information about the company’s ability to
generate cash flows from its mining operations.
5 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 5
The Blackwater PEA is preliminary in nature and includes Inferred Mineral Resources that are considered too
speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be
categorized as Mineral Reserves, and there is no certainty that the PEA based on these Mineral Resources will
be realized. Mineral Resources that are not Mineral Reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability.
Preliminary economic assessment cautionary language
6 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 6
2012 third quarter highlights
Outperformed gold and gold equity indices
Notes: 1. Refer to Cautionary Statement and note on Total cash cost.
2. Margin per ounce calculated as average realized gold price in 2012 third quarter less total cash cost per ounce during 2012 third quarter.
Growth projects achieve significant milestones
Operations combine for strongest 2012 quarter to date
Highest gold production – 104,577 ounces
Lowest total cash costs(1) – $443 per ounce sold
Highest margin(2) – $1,117 per ounce
New Afton mill hits both commercial and full production ahead of schedule
Blackwater Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) outlines parameters
of company’s new flagship asset
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$1,032 $1,014
$1,117
$600
$900
$1,200
Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12
$543
$472$443
$200
$400
$600
Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12
Key metrics trending in the right direction
2012 Gold Production (thousand ounces)
2012 Total Cash Costs, net of by-product sales ($/ounce)(1)
2012 Average Realized Margin ($/ounce)(2)
• New Afton production start
and strong performance of
three other operations
drives best quarter of 2012
• Fourth quarter should be
even stronger
• Company, once again, on
track to achieve both
production and cost
guidance
Notes: 1. Refer to Cautionary Statement and note on Total cash cost.
2. Margin per ounce calculated as average realized gold price in 2012 third quarter less total cash cost per ounce during 2012 third quarter.
99 95105
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12
8 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 8
2012 third quarter operating results
2012 Third Quarter
Gold sales
(000s ounces)
Cash cost(1)
($/oz)
$722 32
$218 34
$796 22
$443 95
Mesquite
Peak Mines
Cerro San Pedro
Note: 1. Refer to Cautionary Statement and note on Total cash cost.
Earning from
Mine Operations
($mm)
$13
$41
$15
$77
2012 Nine Months
Gold sales
(000s ounces)
Cash cost(1)
($/oz)
$664 113
$205 103
$772 64
$486 286
Earning from
Mine Operations
($mm)
$58
$123
$42
$231
($955) 7 New Afton $8 ($955) 7 $8
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• Mill achieved commercial production (6,600
tpd) on July 31st and full production (11,000
tpd) on September 21st – both ahead of
schedule
• Total development capital through
commercial production start - $793 million
• Recoveries meeting expectations – moving
into mid-80 percent range through
September into October
• Operating costs of ~$20 per tonne
– By-product total cash costs(1) – ($955)
per ounce
– Co-product total cash costs(1) - $729
per ounce; $1.87 per pound
New Afton start-up
Notes: 1. Refer to Cautionary Statement and note on Total cash cost.
10 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 10
Financial highlights
Adjusted Net Earnings per Share
($ per share)
Earnings from Mine Operations
($ millions)
Net Cash Generated from Operations
($ millions)
Cash Generated from Operations before Working Capital
($ millions)
$77 $76 $78 $76
-
$25
$50
$75
$100
Q3'12 Q2'12 Q1'12 Q3'11
$0.09$0.10 $0.10
$0.11
-
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
Q3'12 Q2'12 Q1'12 Q3'11
$91$80 $82 $80
-
$25
$50
$75
$100
Q3'12 Q2'12 Q1'12 Q3'11
$47 $46$37
$71
-
$25
$50
$75
$100
Q3'12 Q2'12 Q1'12 Q3'11
11 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 11
Relative share price performance
+29%
+19%
+15%
+11%
+20%
Source: 1. Bloomberg. All amounts in USD.
Note: 2. S&PTSX Gold Index includes 59 gold companies in various stages of development/production.
3. FTSE Gold Mines Index includes 26 gold producing companies.
4. HUI Index includes 15 of the major global gold producers.
2012 Third Quarter
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2012
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
29-Jun-12 10-Jul-12 21-Jul-12 1-Aug-12 12-Aug-12 23-Aug-12 3-Sep-12 14-Sep-12 25-Sep-12
NGD Gold Price S&P/TSX Gold Index FTSE Gold Mines Index HUI Index
29-Sep-12
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
30-Dec-11 5-Feb-12 13-Mar-12 19-Apr-12 26-May-12 2-Jul-12 8-Aug-12 14-Sep-12
NGD Gold Price S&P/TSX Gold Index FTSE Gold Mines Index HUI Index
29-Sep-12
+21%
(1%)
(3%)
+13%
+3%
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• Blackwater and El Morro combine to provide New Gold shareholders with significant gold and
copper resource exposure
• The two assets combined should more than double the company’s production base at low
costs
A future of further gold and copper leverage
Measured & Indicated
Resources(1)(2) Inferred Resources(1)(3) Life-of-Mine Average Annual
Gold/Copper Production(4)(5)
-
1
2
3
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Gold Copper
-
1
2
3
-
2
4
6
Gold Copper
-
25
50
75
100
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Gold Copper
Gold
(Moz)
Copper
(Blbs)
Gold
(Moz)
Copper
(Blbs)
Gold
(Koz)
Copper
(Mlbs)
10.9
4.9
~600
2.2
1.7
~85
Notes: 1. Refer to New Gold website for detailed disclosure on Reserve and Resource calculations. El Morro shown at New Gold’s attributable 30% share.
2. Blackwater Measured and Indicated resources inclusive of Capoose Indicated resources of 384koz.
3. Blackwater Inferred resources inclusive of Capoose Inferred resource of 443koz.
4. Blackwater gold production based on initial 15-years of mine life.
5. El Morro shown at New Gold’s attributable 30% share.
Blackwater
El Morro
El Morro Blackwater
El Morro
El Morro Blackwater
El Morro
El Morro
13 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 13
Blackwater – Preliminary Economic Assessment summary
Conventional open pit and 60,000 tonnes per day processing plant
Low strip ratio – 2.36 to 1
First five year annual average – 569,000 ounces at $467 per ounce
2017 production start
Base Case
Au: $1,275/oz Ag: $22.50/oz US$/CDN$ - $0.94
NPV ($ billions) 1.1
IRR (%) 14
Payback (years) 4.8
Spot Case – September 20th
Au: $1,775/oz Ag: $34.50/oz US$/CDN$ - $1.00
NPV ($ billions) 2.8
IRR (%) 26
Payback (years) 2.7
14 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 14
Blackwater – Indicative timeline
• The below provides a preliminary indicative targeted timeline through exploration,
development and into production(1)
Notes: 1. Indicative timeline is dependent on continued exploration success, permit approvals and the determination that the deposit is economically viable. There is no assurance this timeline will be achieved nor that
the deposit will ever reach the production stage.
Project Schedule
First Nations & Public
Consultation
Drilling
PEA
Feasibility Study
Permitting
Construction
Production
20172012 2013 2014 2015 2016
15 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 15
$1.00
$3.00
$5.00
$7.00
$9.00
$11.00
$13.00
$15.00
1-J
un-0
9
15
-Oct-
09
28
-Fe
b-1
0
14
-Jul-
10
27
-Nov-1
0
12
-Apr-
11
26
-Aug
-11
9-J
an-1
2
24
-May-1
2
7-O
ct-
12
Share price
NAVPS
P/NAV
Completed $1.2bn business combination with Western Goldfields
Closing of Richfield acquisition
High~1.5x
High~1.5x
High~1.5x
High~1.5x
Low~0.7x
Current~1.0x
31
-Oct-
12
Net asset value per share appreciation
US
$ N
AV
an
d S
hare
pri
ce
Source: Broker Reports, Company Estimates and Announcements, Bloomberg.
Notes: 1. Street consensus NAV.
2. Current street consensus NAV for El Morro; Includes $50mm cash payment received from Goldcorp as part of transaction consideration.
3. New Gold purchased Richfield for C$480 million and Silver Quest for C$110 million. The deals closed on June 1, 2011 and December 23, 2011, respectively.
6/1/09 Today
370% increase in NAVPS
292% increase in share price
Mesquite, Cerro San Pedro, Peak
New Afton
El Morro(2)
~ $875 $1,704
~ $120 $1,373
~ $40 $737
Net Asset Value(1)
Blackwater(3)
$-- $1,315
16 2012 Third Quarter Results Webcast | November 1, 2012 16
The New Gold investment thesis
EXPERIENCED BOARD AND MANAGEMENT
FULLY FUNDED COMPANY WITH STRONG BALANCE SHEET
DIVERSIFIED ASSET BASE IN MINING FRIENDLY JURISDICTIONS
ORGANIC GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES/METAL OPTIONALITY
PRODUCTION GROWTH/MARGIN EXPANSION
INCREASING UNDERLYING ASSET VALUE
MULTIPLE CATALYSTS
COMPELLING INVESTMENT PROPOSITION