![Page 1: 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649d565503460f94a35066/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and
Precipitation Outlook
Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum
Fort Worth, TX
November 29, 2011
Victor Murphy
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Year to Year Precipitation Variability a Given in Texas
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
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Oklahoma has Seen an Entire Generation of Green!
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
![Page 4: 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649d565503460f94a35066/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
New Mexico has also seen a Generation of Green!
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
![Page 5: 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649d565503460f94a35066/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
But, Against this Backdrop of Wetness Lurks La Nina
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
![Page 6: 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649d565503460f94a35066/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Scatter Plots also Show Strong ENSO Correlation for Southern
Plains
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
![Page 7: 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649d565503460f94a35066/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
La Nina Composites
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
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But, 2010-2011 an Outlier for Drought Severity
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
![Page 9: 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649d565503460f94a35066/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
La Nina: Déjà vu all Over Again
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Moderate Strength La Nina Expected to Peak in a Month
or Two.
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NOAA/NCEP Coupled Forecast Series
Model Output for Precipitation
AMJ
MJJ
JJAFMA
JFM
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DJF Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction
Center (CPC)
Odds 3 to 1 in favorof drier than normalvs. wetter thannormal.
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MAM Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction
Center
Odds 2 to 1 in favorof drier than normalvs. wetter than normal.
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November-March are Individually Among the 5 Driest Months of theYear in Texas. Significant Drought
Relief this Time of Year Very Unlikely during La Nina.
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
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Little Hope for Relief During the Winter in OK also.
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
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Recharge Window Even Smaller in NM.
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
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12 month Percent of Average Precipitation through the end
of October 2011.
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Through April, Drought Most Likely to Persist in southern
NM and western TX.
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Probability of Precipitation Required to end Current Drought Conditions in 6
Months.
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New Mexico Spring Precipitation by
Tercile
1.85”
2.55”
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Texas Spring Rainfall by Tercile
6.5”
8.25”
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Oklahoma Spring Precipitation by
Tercile
9.5”
11.5”
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Louisiana Spring Rainfall by Tercile
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Temperature Trends During JJA During the past 100 Years
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL
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Does October-June Precipitation Foretell Expected
Summer Rainfall? No.
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
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Summer 2011 Forecast from CPC.
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Takeaway Messages
• La Nina is returning for the 2011-2012 cold season.
• Thus, through May, odds of below normal precipitation are 2 to 3 times greater than above normal.
• Any significant drought improvement not likely until April at earliest, when spring rainfall begins.
• Summer temperatures likely warmer than normal, but not likely to emulate the historic heat of last summer.
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Questions??
Victor Murphy
NWS Southern Region
Climate Service Program Manager
817-966-4216 x 130
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In General, Precipitation has been Increasing in the
Southern Plains
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL