Download - 2007 amazon as hub of world brain final-6.51
All Information, All Languages, All the Time
Model for Making Amazon the Profitable World Brain
Robert David Steele (Vivas)
Seattle, 18 January 2007
FINAL As Delivered, Version 6.5
Planned Words in Notes—Copy at www.oss.net/AMAZON
The Plan• One slide for big picture.• One slide on Who Is.• 53 slides in 25 minutes.• INTERRUPT Concisely• Then 5 slides in depth.• Then interactive dialog• Drinks afterward if desired.• Email anytime:
oss.net[]cox.net
This briefing with words in Notes format is at:
http://www.oss.net/AMAZON .
Dare to Want it All!
End Game: The World Brain
Wikipedia in All LanguagesGoogleEarthAll Social Networks Online
Machine Translation, Online Dictionaries, and Human Translation Online
Localized Printing, Recycling, Conferencing, Banking, and Social Networking
Global Public Human Intelligence Network Organized By Topic & Location
Real-world real-time feeds to serious games & online budgets
Distributed Online and Offline Historical, Cultural, and Time-Space Sense-Making
Who Is Robert Steele?
• #1 Amazon reviewer for non-fiction• #51 over-all (all product reviews, doing just n-f)• A top individual purchaser of books ($5K/yr)• Member, Amazon Advantage & Amazon Prime• Author & publisher of intelligence books• Global authority on public intelligence• Former spy, angry about $60B/yr in waste• The world’s most demanding end-user• Patriot who wants to save USA by saving Earth.
Nits Before We Start• For Customers
– Allow search for specific reviewer within any book page– Adapt Lists to show full review by the list maker, for any book– Adapt Social Life of Books visualization for context– Option to be visible to “Popular In” collectives– Allow “Invite a Friend” to be used as indirect email.– Allow URLs to be added everywhere (reviews, comments, instead of reviews, etc.)
• For Reviewers– Allow sorting of full reviews into categories similar to lists– Provide dashboard for seeing titles only for categorization– Provide tally of recent votes & comments across all books– Provide spreadsheet of votes & comments for all books by category/title
• For Publishers– Allow specified minimum orders of two for shrink-wrapped books
• For Authors– Offer a Kinko’s one-of publishing alternative to China– Solicit customer interests for books that do not exist yet– Provide a portal for buying and selling raw data & piecework
One-Page Version of Brief1. A3 hosts all Information in all
languages on consignment.
2. Sell content at three levels:1. Synthetic (100% profit)2. Footnotes (micro-cash profit)3. Original works (50% profit)
3. Hence, put all publishers out of business and kill carbon cost.
4. Make sense of all information for profit, and provide F/OSS analytic toolkit.
5. Hence, put Microsoft and ORACLE out of business, create interoperable net.
6. Show, make sense of, and sell all overt government information (national to local) and especially budget data,
7. Show, make sense of, and sell corporate information/ evaluations including carbon & other footprints.
8. See “True Cost” information via ScanBack at point of sale, profit from buycotts that choose to go green.
9. Migrate world to paying for knowledge by the paragraph or text message while also creating new knowledge in near-real-time, owning the aggregate.
10. Show and sell memes & mind-maps and networks at clan and tribe level.
11. Make education free (to capture 5 billion new customers), and in doing so, save the Earth.
12. Grow by an order of magnitude.
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*33 predominant languages, 183 vital dialects, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Secret Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
50% Less Costly
Mor
e S
atis
fyin
g
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Secret Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
In 2006, five years after 9-11, we still do not have integrated watch list for terrorists.
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
5% of cost 80% of value
95% of cost 20% of value
Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!
Baseball (Wiki) AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINTOpen Source
HUMINTHuman
SIGINTSignals
IMINTImagery
MASINTMeasurements & Signatures
Amazon Already Doing…
ScanBackWow! Think Green—
Water, Fuel, Labor Content Information, OptionsOwn Client by Being Their Hand-Held Intelligence Service!
Quest CoinWow! A new form of untaxed world currency
S3: Simple Storage ServiceWow! Become the Information Merchant Bank in all languages, starting with free storage for university dissertations and newspaper archives. Own the aggregate, which in turn allows 100% profit on synthetic top-level answers.
AskVilleWow! Needs work but could explode.
Vint Cerf Predicts:
By 2010 more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form
of library-quality paperbacks.
Steele Asks: Amazon-FedEx-Kinkos?NOTE: BookSurge wastes carbon.
By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form.
Steele Asks: Amazon-IBM-Yahoo-CISCO-Trio?NOTE: Annotation of online versions good, needs work
—bring in Doug Englebart from Bootstrap.
http://www.longbets.org/predictions
The Problem• Earth changing faster
– Changes that used to take 10,000 years now take 3 years
– Peak Oil now definite– Water Scarcity is the
other major shortfall– Pandemic disease soon?– Individual Nations are
powerless in isolation
• Information exploding– Government focuses on
expensive secrets and military enemies
– Bureaucracies focus on day to day business
– No one is dedicated to making sense of all information in all languages all the time
WARNING: Books ten years in the writing no longer cut it—need real-time knowledge. At the same time, most products are unaffordable when “true cost” is calculated—Amazon can become the enabler for “green” products & services, and profit thereby. We need a global public intelligence network with a serious hub.
The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!
INFORMATION
TIME
Actionable Intelligence
Available Information
Open source information is more complex than secrets…Foreign languages are critical to global understanding.
The Information EnvironmentProfit is in tailored timely sense-making, not in mass-produced products or information.
• Time is the one asset that cannot be bought nor replaced.
• If Amazon can become the hub for near-real-time (NRT) collection, sense-making, and tailored dissemination, this is 80% of the profit base/intangible value, inclusive of enhanced global understanding, collaboration, & sanity.
Time-Value of InformationThis is really important!
Valuation Is Changing Fast• Irreplacable: TIME• Irreplacable: EARTH• Value-Added: SENSE• Infinitely shareable at no
additional cost: INFORMATION
• Losing value:– Goods– Cash money– Secret/Internal information– Proprietary technology
• High Value Offerings:– Multi-Media learning &
sharing, not just text– Communities of Interest – Context– Cultural intelligence– Localized relevance– Global connections– Quality– Innovation– Speed– “True Cost” savings
It’s not about products or even service—it’s about public intelligence, e.g. “true cost.”
Alternative Service ModelUsing Information to Connect People & Create Answers
• WIRED (& OPEN)– Top 10 Journalists– Top 10 Academics– Tribal Orders of Battle– Time Line Overviews– Soviet 1:50 Maps– Commercial Imagery
• TIRED (& SECRET)– Executive Summary– Old regional survey– High-level map– Desk analyst visit– Telcon with Embassy
Challenge Match for Aspin-Brown
OSS versus entire secret US IC
OSS won with six phone calls.
Seven Generations of Intelligence & Information Operations
Evolutionary Eras
1st Generation
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
4th Generation
5th Generation
6th Generation
7th Generation
What Do We Need to Know
Easy: Where is the army?
Easy: Where are the trenches?
Moderate: How many with what?
Hard: Watch every non-state actor.
Hard: Watch everything on the fly.
Hard: Make sense of billions of bits.
Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.
From Linear to Systems Thinking• Agricultural Era:
Simple localized systems• Industrial Era:
Complex isolated systems• Information Era:
Complex combinations of complex systems that most do not understand
• Conceptual Era: Learning to learn, to anticipate, to collaborate, and to create infinite wealth at all levels
• Verbal communications face to face (one to one)
• Books (one to many)
• Multi-media products (mixed)
• All information in all languages all the time, with historical & cultural context, and the tools to make sense and get answers in real time. READ-WRITE not READ ONLY. Connecting dots to dots at machine speed, dots to people, and people to people.
This era started around 1992—we are 15 years behind the power curve. The good news is that everyone else is 25 years behind.
Social Life of BooksCitation Analysis on Steroids
http://www.orgnet.com/booknet.html
Become the World BrainAll Information, All Languages, All the Time
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams
One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit
360° 24/7 All Languages….Amazon.com• Books• Authors• Local Buyer Networks• Content for Microcash• Alerts on new work
Amazon.edu• Answers/Reach-back• Classes/Degrees• Mentors• Testing/Challenges• Global Library
Amazon.net• News by threat, policy, challenger, neighborhood• True Cost information via ScanBack• Eyes On Everywhere
Amazon.org• Social Investing• Micro-Cash• Lift the 5 Billion• Flush the Corrupt• Save the Planet
Amazon.calc• MyBudget• BudgetMonitor• National Budget Online for Dialog
Amazon.geo• Places to books• Books to places• Actual & virtual influence circles
Amazon.time Amazon.event
WikiCalc@Amazon?
• Number extraction?• Number relations?• Budget links to books?• Water, fuel, labor
content as micro-cash service?
• Corporate and government budget monitoring & dialog as a service?
6.3 to 6.8 pounds (2.85 to 3.1 kg) of carbon emissions per burger
the rough equivalent of the annual carbon output from 7,500-15,000 SUVs if the 300 million US citizens hit the 3 burgers/week average.
“True Cost”@Amazon
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
EarthSavings
AmazonProfit
Labor"True Cost"
Carbon"True Cost"
Water"True Cost"
• Amazon can drop water, carbon, & sweatshop labor costs
• Amazon can displace publishers, reward authors, and print books at Kinko’s for FedEx delivery.
• Amazon can displace E-Bay at least in books
• Earth wins.
Dominate Knowledge Life Cycle
• Own & sell information– Blogs, Comments, Books, Etc.– True cost information– Information at the paragraph level
• Create a new environment life cycle– Enable sharing of information & products– Enable re-cycling of books & products– Enable infinite adaptation– Enable infinite innovation & invention
Policy Intelligence
Military Intelligence
Law Enforcement Intelligence
Coalition Intelligence
Business Intelligence/OSINT
Mass & Niche Media Intelligence
Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”
Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education
Foreign Countries,
Organizations, Languages
The Intelligence MarketplaceEach Isolated and Non-Collaborative; Proprietary SoftwareTools & Storage;
Limited Foreign Language Access, No Historical or Cultural Context
Commercial Online
Books & Journals
Conferences & Dissertations
Maps & Commercial
Imagery
Internet
Telephone Surveys
Gray Literature
Complex Human &
IT Services
Amazon Universe
Hold & Sell All InformationNote: Information will displace products & services
Government Information
Information Brokers &
Private Investigators
Schools & Universities
Public & Special
Libraries
WWW Virtual Library
Business Information
Intelligence Communities
Amazon Clients
Niche & Mass Media
Be the Aggregator for AllConnect People, Organizations, & Useful Knowledge
New Craft of IntelligenceCapture First Three Quadrants, Cut Fourth by 3/5ths
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
OpenTools@Amazon?
• Where tools? Why not?• Tools for finding• Tools for gisting• Tools for linking• Tools for weighting• Tools for sharing• Tools for buying wisely• Tools for research• Tools for presenting
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
NEW: Intelligent Network Enables Applications At All Points
OLD:
Intelligence@Amazon
Seven Intelligence Tribes:The Way Ahead
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
Money@Amazon
Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down
Point of Entry Raw Produces Actionable Intelligence
Processed Raw
OPINTEL
Finished Intelligence
Policy Package
Public Perception
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OSINT OPS OTHER
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OSINT OPS OTHER
Dots need to be connecting at every level,Including immediately upon ingestion.
Today, one third of the dots connect here.(Collect 2/3rd, spill half—some say 80%)
TECHNICAL HUMAN
III - External Information
EXTERNAL
INTERNAL
Organizational Memory System
DataConversion
Data Visualization &Geospacial Rendering
HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval
TripReports
Churning(Rotationals)
LocalKnowledge
Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”
Internal Reporting
Vendor Reporting
Government Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)
PERSONALITY
(Insight/Intuition)
Patents, Etc.
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Personal Brand
Project/GroupManagement
Training
BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized
E-Commerce
Automated Analysis
Cell #
IV - Organizational Intelligence
I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
The Big Picture IFour processing quadrants that S3 can monetize
S3/IBM as Sense-Maker of Aggregate & Particular Data
The Big Picture IIFour information quadrants that S3 can monetize
http://novaspivack.typepad.com/nova_spivacks_weblog/2004/04/new_version_of_.html
Deg
ree
of I
nfor
mat
ion
Con
nect
ivity
Semantic WebConnects Knowledge
The MetawebConnects Intelligence
The WebConnects Information
Social SoftwareConnects People
Artificial Intelligence
Personal Assistants
Intelligent Agents
Semantic webs
Ontologies
Taxonomies
Knowledge basesKnowledge management
Search engines Enterprise portals
Content portals
Databases Personal information managers
File servers P2P File-sharing
“Push” Publications &Subscriptions
Websites
Marketplace auctions Wikis RSS
Groupware Weblogs Community portals
E-mail USENET
Social NetworksInstant messaging
Conferencing
Knowledge networksThe
Global BrainEnterprise minds
Smart marketplacesGroup minds
Semantic weblogsDecentralized communities
“The Relationship” Web
Degree of social connectivity
web browser application
web server
business logic
Many Oracle Servers
Many Other Servers
Many TeraText Servers
Many Domino Servers
• Largest software text system• Fuses information across 260
disparate database systems• Over 4 billion documents• Over 10,000 named users
Putting It All Together
INTELLIGENCE ARCHITECTURE:• incorporates open sources, on and off line• matches global real time knowledge to individual situations
NETWORK ARCHITECTURE:• processing in the bit stream• interoperation
SEMANTIC ARCHITECTURE:• text-capable• scaled
Become the Earth Intelligence Network
Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic
Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information
Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
Earth Intelligence
NetworkEarthPedia EarthGame EarthBudget
Use or replace Google Earth as shared focal point for visualization and data relations.
All elements link from paragraph level to Amazon Inside the Book and Amazon Answers
Other Key Partners:CISCO content-based routingYahoo search & social networksIBM sense-makingFedEx Kinkos (publish & recycle 1 of)Reuniting AmericaWorld Index of Social/Enviro Resp.UN State of the Future, etc.
Key Concepts:Transparency (Public Intelligence)Accountability (Digital Memory)Resilience (Reality-Based Games)Sustainability (Open Budgets)Profit (Save Global Commerce)
Sell by the paragraph; create tailored books; displace most publishing houses; recycle booksCreate new paragraphs via EIN as needed, and sell those
If it’s known to an organization and is not private, it gets into EIN.
Brazil
China
Indonesia
India
Indonesia
Wild Card(s)
Venezuela
Russia
USA
European Union
Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All LevelsO
utp
uts: S
ustain
able S
olu
tion
s for T
en H
igh
-Level T
hreats
Solution: Abandon the War Metaphor & Secrecy, Move Directly to Information
Peacekeeping & Transparent Reality-Based BudgetingReal-world Real-time
Dollars & Sense
Amazon Can Rule• What did the previous slide really mean?
– Access all information in all languages on consignment, but the only one with all of it, all with geospatial and time-date tags
– Make sense of all that information, in detail and in the macro or meta sense, and sell that sense to every government & corporation
– This includes belief systems at the individual, neighborhood, clan, and tribe levels
– Store state & local information, then do reality check on budgets– Store corporate and non-profit budgets, cross-fertilize/de-conflict
• The USG is insolvent. This is bad for business.• Corporations are predatory. This is bad for business.• Snowcrash is here now. Amazon can not only beat Google, it can
crush Microsoft & ORACLE.• Amazon can be the foundation for restoring informed democracy
and moral capitalism—natural capitalism—while lifting the world from poverty, creating 5 billion new clients & potential authors.
Intelligence Valuation $111B/Year Marketplace and Rising Exponentially
Federal smart IT and OSINT:
>$6B/year
US Corporate business
intelligence: >25B/year
State & Local smart IT and intel: >$5B/year
Global smart IT and
shared intel: >$75B/year
Value of Common “I” to
Generic “T”:Priceless
Global Distributed Knowledge
National Distributed Knowledge
Government Knowledge
Intelligence Community
1B 10B 100B 1 TRILLION
Real-World Information Dollars
Potential Burden-Sharing Budget from USG Outwards
Intelligence@Amazon
• Global understanding could prevent global warming & related catastrophes.
• Global education could resolve & prevent human breakdowns.
• Global tools could spread the wealth.
So, Where Now?• Amazon is a great
company.• Can you lift Earth?:
– Earth Monitoring– Policy Development– Cross-cultural
communications– Public Intelligence– Futures arbitrage
ProductsStorage Finance
Intelligence
Start by Saving America
Electoral ReformInformed VotersVoting on week-ends League of Women VotersCabinet choices join debatesInstant Run-OffEnd gerrymanderingEnd corporate funding
National Security ReformEducate the Nation on realityHave a coherent strategyBig War force for $250BSmall War force up to $75BPeace force up to $100BHome force up to $75B
Intelligence ReformRestructure Presidential staffIntegrate All Sources/AgenciesElevate NIC to EOPGlobal Knowledge NetworkRedirect agenciesState & local intelligence
Governance ReformCoalition CabinetQuality education for allHealth care & public healthEthics is cost-effectiveFocus on Protecting FutureTrain the next President
“Creating a Smart Nation,
Of, By, and For the People”
Bottom Line: Live by the Golden Rule
The Strategic VisionGovernments are broken. Information can create infinite wealth and displace violence. Amazon can profit from harnessing the distributed intelligence of the Whole Earth, while saving the Earth.
Operational Vision
• Harness the complete information spectrum• Become the trusted provider for tailored public
intelligence, answers on demand• Become the “Moody’s” for all products &
services• Be the direct publisher for all authors in all
languages• Be able to publish anything in any language one
copy at a time.• Use FedExKinko’s to share, collect, scan,
recycle, and nurture localized networks.
Three Major Profit Streams1. Pure new profit from
synthetic information free of copyright
2. Increased profit from monetizing at quote and page levels
3. Shared profit from displacing publishers and helping green companies increase marketshare, put Wal-Mart out of business by helping local producers.
1
2
3
If you are among 7% of color-blind, the above color is cash green…..
Copyright
• Most lawyers afraid to admit ignorance.• Synthetic information is copyright free.• “Footnotes” can be sold for micro-cash.• Step 1: Monetize at paragraph level.• Step 2: Establish right to sell synthetic.• Step 3: Recruit all authors directly• Step 4: Be able to publish anything in any
language one copy at a time.
Profitable First Steps• S3 Free to Academia, NGOs,
USSOCOM—this sets stage for synthetic information profit and displacing Institute of Scientific Information citation analysis service
• Create Global Intelligence Council—this harnesses most experts who are paid in access while S3 earns cash
• Adopt Golden Candle Society as Global Registry for anyone with a brain—change the model, aggregate customer requirements and then meet them immediately
• Monetize by paragraph and hour—double S3 revenue
• Displace publishers and consultants—double again—first monetize and honor copyright on existing works, then recruit all authors directly.
• Offer F/OSS STRONG ANGEL Toolkit—death to MS
• Accelerate digitization, collaborate with Internet Archives (Brewster Kahle) and Library of Congress
• Become the Information Merchant Bank with three objectives:
– 1) triple Amazon profit & revenue in five years by monetizing all information not now sold via Amazon, and selling existing information by the paragraph.
– 2) use the cell phone to profit from point of sale diversion of end-users;
– 3) save the planet by providing free education in all languages, extend Amazon client base to the other five billion people.
• Displace Google or Partner with Google. Use India as Partner to create unclassified CIA right now.
Pilot Project:
• Start with what you have on each of these 30 topics
• Go find and digitize the rest or know where it is
• Recruit the top 100 authors for each
• Begin selling old, current, and new knowledge online
• Host annual conference and global database on each
End Game: The World Brain
Wikipedia in All LanguagesGoogleEarthAll Social Networks Online
Machine Translation, Online Dictionaries, and Human Translation Online
Localized Printing, Recycling, Conferencing, Banking, and Social Networking
Global Public Human Intelligence Network Organized By Topic & Location
Real-world real-time feeds to serious games & online budgets
Distributed Online and Offline Historical, Cultural, and Time-Space Sense-Making
Will speak for sushi
• Robert D. Steele• www.oss.net• Meta documents:
– www.oss.net/BASIC– www.oss.net/LIBRARY
• Cool briefs:– www.oss.net/FAILURE– www.oss.net/HOPE – www.oss.net/BRAIN
• This brief:– www.oss.net/AMAZON
Dare to Want it All!