1Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Session 3World Bank Institute
Maarten van Aalst
Information, methods and tools
2Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Information, methods and tools for climate risk reduction
Global warming
Rising disaster impacts
Climate risk management
4Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Challenges/limitations of model simulations:
Uncertain future GHG emissions
Model uncertainties/shortcomings
Spatial resolution Difficulties of
modeling extremes
5Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Climate information at shorter timescales
Enhanced climate risk management by using information at intermediate timescale:
climate forecasts for the next few months(getting better quickly)
7Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Sources of information (1)
People/Institutions
Meteorological Office
Climate Change Focal Point (often in Ministry of Environment)
National and international science institutes
8Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Sources of information (2)
Online information
IPCC www.ipcc.chUNFCCC www.unfccc.int
national communications national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs)
International research institutes, such as IRI
Specialized agencies, such as WHO
9Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Sources of information (3)
Visualization tools
e.g. SERVIR Viz http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov/
10Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Examples of methods and tools (1)
Project design/risk screening ADAPT (investments projects) CRISTAL (community level)
ADAPT RISK FLAGS
Red flag – adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked Orange flag – Not enough known to assess Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation
15Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Examples of methods and tools (2)
Portfolio screening processes, e.g. OECD DGIS ORCHID
16Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Orchid
Sensitization and awareness-
raisingStrategic Overview
Initial Portfolio Screening
Climate change and disasters profile
Climate change and disasters assessment
Adaptation / Risk reduction options
Adaptation options integratedRisk screening of future programming
Options assessment Cost benefit analysis
17Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Examples of methods and tools (3)
Climate risk management process guidance
18Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Key elements of climate risk reduction for DM organizations
Preliminary climate risk assessment: assess how risks are changing
Assess priorities and plan follow up Implementation within regular programs
Cross-cutting elements:
Raising awareness on changing risks; Establishing and enhancing partnerships; Documenting and sharing experiences
and information.