Download - 1.2 introducing the challenge leaver
Achieving Food Security
and Sustainability for Nine
Billion
Old Byzantine Proverb:
‘He who has bread may have troubles
He who lacks it has only one’
The Challenge of Achieving Food Security
and Sustainability for Nine [email protected]
We are dependent on cultivated plant species as the software to translate the sun’s energy, water and mineral nu trients into food, fibre and fuels
.
In Many Countries Productive Agriculture is Seasona l
CHLOROPHYLL: Is the only the molecule that can be seen from space . It is found in all Green Plants and is responsible for ca pturing the light energy from the Sun by a process know as PHOTOSYNTHESIS
PHOTOSYNTHESIS• Life on earth ultimately
depends on energy derived
from the sun.
• Photosynthesis by green plants
is the only process of biological
importance that can capture
this energy.
• It provides energy, organic
matter and oxygen, and is the
only sustainable energy source
on our planet.
Sucrose
Starch
Oils
Proteins
Plants provide the food we eat, the environment we enjoy &the air we breathe.
THE FOOD WE EAT
Humans use about 30% of the earths photosynthetic production andand ca 32% of the planets land area for cropland(12%) and pasture(20%)
1. What level is truly sustainable, how much do we need to share with other species and how can we optimise the usefulness and beneficial impact of what we can harvest in the future?
2. How can we deliver global food security to avoid predicted deficits as early as 2020 and to deliver an environmentally sustainable doubling of crop production by 2050?. There are 7.0 billion people on earth now and this will increase to ca. 9 billion by 2050
2. How can we reduce our dependence on, and ultimately replace petrochemicals with renewable chemical feed stocks from plants?
4. How can we combat climate change,global warming and drought and minimise its impact on crop productivity?
CHALLENGES IN YOUR LIFETIME
Peter Bruegel the Elder (1565)
Soybean Harvest and
Corn Cultivation
The Eurocentric
Vision of Agriculture:
Garden of Earthly
Delight or Paradise Lost?
The Reality:Prarie Agriculture
In Mato Grosso-Brazil
Agriculture is a success
story and has kept pace
with the increase in
population over the
centuries… BUT not for
everyone on the planet
YOU WILL KNOW FAR BETTER THAN I THE REALITY OF AGRICULTURE IN SOME AFRICAN COUNTRIES
• More than 1 billion people go hungry daily about 250 million are in Africa
• About 30,000 people, half of them children, die every day due to hunger and malnutrition
• More than 3 billion people are living in absolute poverty on less than two dollars a day and are generally deficient in at least one micronutrient necessary for maintaining their health. They have real problems with food security.
• 650 Million of the Poorest Live in Rural Areas
Today we could feed everyone on the planet thanks to plant breeding
and modern agriculture but now and in the future making sure
everyone has enough to eat is about politics (access,distribution etc---)
and investment in science…….
““ In the next 50 years, mankind will consume as much food as we have consumed since the beginning of agriculture 10,000 years ag o - Clive James”
The worlds population has more than doubled in the last 50 years
Each Year the World’s Population Grows by about 80 Million People
Developing and
Transition
Countries
Developed countries
2012
10% of the Population Lives
on 0.5% of the World’s Income1927
1960
220,000 new mouths to feed everyday
Increases in global population and urbanisationIncreases in global population and urbanisation……
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Pop
ulat
ion
(bill
ions
)
Oceania
Northern America
Latin America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Source: United Nations, World Population
Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)
World population growth by region Urbanisation
The largest increases in population will
occur in megacities in Africa and Asia.
More than 50% of the worlds
population already live in urban
areas it will rise to 70%.
Demand is driven by population growth and land scarcity
19602 people
2005>4 people
People fed per hectare
2030>5 people
1950
2.5 billion
20056.5 billion
2030
>8 billion
World population
Source: FAO, World Bank statistics
As a result 1 in 6 of the world’s population, is hungry today, and we have to increase food production by 70-100% by 2050
And failing to end hungerAnd failing to end hungerUndernourishment data versus the Millenium Development
Goals target
Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)
2007-08 food price spike
Mill
ions
How have we met the increased food demand since 1950’s?
Mechanisation including irrigation
Modern fertilizers
Crop protection
chemicals
Better seed varieties
Maximum yields in those countries which will have t he biggest increase in population are still far below those achieved in th e developed world
Sub Saharan Africa
Four innovations brought about the change in agriculture and increased yield in the twentieth century
• Productivity steadily increased with only a 10% increase in land use :
– Mechanisation and irrigation
– Synthetic fertilisers
– Crop protection chemicals
– Plant Breeding and Genetics-
the ‘Green revolution’
• The effect of these four innovations was to allow more food to be produced from less land-
• The developed world became complacent!!
• What are the innovations which will change agriculture in this century?
Source: WBC for Sustainable Agriculture, Crop Losses to Pests (E-C Oerke); Journal of Agricultural Science (2006)11/7/2012 12
Russell and Sandall (2005) University of Nebraska, Lincoln
USDA NASS
10.0
Corn7.5
Sorghum Barley Wheat Soybean OatsRye Cotton
5.0
2.5
0.0
US average crop yields (1866 – 2006)
Several studies have shown that about 40-50% of U.S. corn yield gain since the 1930s is due to changes in management, such as increases in N fertilizer, agrochemicals & higher
plant densities, while the other 50-60% is due to changes in corn genotype.
• Agronomic and Genetic Improvements Will Continue to
Work Together to Sustain Improvement in Crop Yield
But yield gains of some major crops are plateauing
In the developed world
Molecular Breeding and GM technology has made a significant contribution to the increase in yield of corn since the late 1990s
To feed and resource 7.0 billion people we have already lost…..•1/5 of our topsoil (due to erosion, desertification and salinity)
•1/5 of our agricultural land (overgrazing marginal land)
•1/3 of our forests
•Plus Today Additionally…..•Environmental pollution
•Climate change, groundwater depletion
•Depletion of the Ozone layer
•Massive fossil fuel usage/CO2 increase by 15% since 1950
•Species extinction, biodiversity loss
•Urbanisation → increased meat consumption (India and China etc)
•Obesity/starvation
•Zoonotic disease transmission HIV, SARs, BSE, Foot and Mouth, Bird Flu etc
THIS IS UNSUSTAINABLE : DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION
The world has been successful at Increasing Food Supply
But this has been at a cost………..
And now man made global warming and climate change …..
Crop productivity is highly vulnerable tovariations in climate
Models suggest that climate change will have a positive or neutral effect on crop yields at high latitudes but negative effects at low latitudes
Increased CO2 (from the current 385 ppm set to rise to 450ppm) raises some yields
Lack of water limits others
Spectrum of pests and disease change
Carbon dioxide levels overthe last 60,000 years
Food Security, Poverty and Climate Change
The Challenge is :
• World population will grow from 7bn 2012 to >9bn by 2050
• More than 50% of the worlds population already live in urban areas and it will rise to 70%
• The largest increases in population will occur in megacities in Africa and Asia
• Increasing affluence in Asia drives demand for meat, cereals, edible oils-the nutritional transition
• Over 1bn people chronically hungry. 3 billion in poverty
• Land available for agriculture will stay ~ constant or decrease
• Decreasing water supplies limit crop yields
•Climate warming is broadly neutral on global yields
but will have significant negative impact on those
countries with the greatest need. Leading to changes
in the distribution and severity of plant pests and
disease,rising sea levels,flooding,severe drought,
decline in soil quality (eg erosion,salinity)
•Increase in yields of major staple crops is plateauing
•Diversion of resources into growing energy crops for
biofuels rather than food crops
70- 100% more food required on same land area, with improved sustainability, fairer distribution and adaption to climate change
and………
The food system is also failing on sustainability - defined
as….. ‘Meeting the needs of the present while improving the
ability of future generations to meet their own needs’
•Agriculture currently consumes 70% of
total global water withdrawals from
rivers and aquifers, many of which are
overexploited. Global water demand for
agriculture could rise by over 30% by
2030 and double by 2050.
•Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on
earth, around 24% has undergone
human induced soil degradation
• Agriculture and forestry directly
contributes ca 30 % of global
anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions
We Must Grow More With Less
“Sustainable Intensification”• All commentators agree that food production will have to increase substantially
this century. But there are very different views about how this should best be achieved
• Sustainable agricultural intensification is defined as ‘producing more output from the same area of land while reducing the negative environmental impacts ‘
• ...both agricultural and environmental outcomes are pre-eminent under sustainable intensification
• To deliver sustainable intensification we must get beyond pointless arguments based on entrenched beliefs or narrow debates about individual technologies and must ……..
• Focus on desired outcomes
• Practical matter not an academic exercise
• There is no single perfect solution
• Sustainability is a journey, not the destination
• Solutions must work locally for individual farmers and communities
21
There are only two ways to increase food production
Time Magazine
Farm More Land Produce More/Acre
In an age of climate change, land-use-conversion is the worst
possible thing to do
Time Magazine
Declining Land Availability
07/11/2012 21:32 22
We are running out of land and water!!!Worldwide, more than 70% of food production is dependent on irrigation. Depletion of aquifers (underground water) is occurring at twice there recharge rate,water tables are falling and wells running dry .Salinisation and desertification is a major consequence of irrigation
Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries (particularily in China and India) more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time, creating potentially unmanageable food scarcity.
Major drought-prone regions of the world coincide with
those regions with the largest predicted increase in population
Changing and unpredictable weather patterns
Corn yields in USA decreasedby ca 30% in 2012 due to drought
The Choices• Expand area of agriculture using virgin land
• Increase productivity in exporting countries of the developed world
• Use all safe and appropriate, socially responsible and sustainable opportunities to increase food supplies locally and also improve‘orphan crops’
• Develop a sustainable and environmentally friendly agriculture which combines the best of conventional plant breeding with the new biotechnologies including marker assisted breeding and genetic modification.
• This is what we wish to discuss with you in the next few days.
DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION AND TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE
The “Perfect Storm” that led to the 2007 food shortages
will be with us in the future
26
Consumption by large, affluent classes in
India , China,SEA and South America
More people to feed
Biofuels
Drought in Australia,Russian
Heatwaves and Fires in 2010
US Drought in 2012
Source: USDA ERS
High Energy Costs
40% of US Corn used for Ethanol
The price of fertiliser is linked to the price of oil and continues to rise
SEPTEMBER 2012
Recent prolonged high temperatures and drought in the US Corn Belt and changing weather conditions have led to predictions that corn yields could be reduced by between 20 and 30% this year. Significant reductions in yields in Europe and Russia.
JULY 2012
Mankind depends on a few crop species for food
The application of marker assisted breeding and GM technology has primarily been used
to improve food production in the major world crops such as maize and soyabean with
rice and wheat following behind. They should now be adapted to improving orphan crops
which can address food security and nutrition and provide economic benefits to
poor farmers in the developing world-sorghum,cowpea,sweet potato,groundnut,cassava
Conventional Plant Breeding has been very successfu l but yield gains are now slowing. The new molecular technologies allow more precise and rapid crop improvement by marker assisted selection breed ing and GM approaches. This requires the identification of the gene(s) that underlie the traits and then combination with native traits usin g molecular markers and/or GM to improve the crop
But yield gains of some
major crops are plateauing
and have not benefited
from GM Technology
Corn
Low crop yields are
part of the problem…
Maize/Corn Yields, 1961-2009
Source: FAO
China
World Average
Africa
Average Cereal Yields
Sub Saharan Africa
South Asia
China
0
2
4
6
Ton
s pe
r H
ecta
re
(FAO 2006)
Agricultural productivity:
Africa 10,000 kcal/ha
Asia 25,000 kcal/ha
Global 20,000 kcal/ha
We have to increase PRODUCTIVITY
• Increasing productivity provides a livelihood for
people, allowing them the opportunity to stay in
their communities. This leads to local economic
growth, better education, health, political stability
and food stability. Implicit with increases in
agricultural productivity is the more efficient use and
distribution of scarce resources such as fuel and
fertiliser.
• Critically, today per capita food production in rich
countries is twice that of the poor nations. We must
increase productivity in these countries to feed the
estimated 9 billion people.
If Future Agriculture is to Support Everyone Adequately on
the Planet a combination of Improved and Appropriate
Technologies will be Required• Integrated pest management
• Reduction of chemical use and energy
• Agroecology
• Water conservation
• No-till practices
• Precision agriculture where appropriate
• Conserving genetic diversity
• Orphan Crops and Specialized (biofuel?) crops
• Genetic modification by marker assisted breeding
and GM technology where appropriate
• GM is not a Silver Bullet!!
Why Developing/Transition Countries
Have Problems with Food?• Limited Resources• Low Agricultural Productivity• Climate Change• Diminishing Productive Land/water• Poverty; Poor Distribution of Food• Misguided Priorities by politicians• Distribution/storage/transportation• Growing Population• Low Purchasing Power• Civil Strife, War • Economic and Environmental Migration
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
To feed a world of 9 billion people in 2050, without allowing for additional imports of food:
Africa has to increase its food production by 300 percent
Latin America by 80 percent; and Asia by 70 percent. Even North America must increase food production by 30 percent
•Without an Increase in Farm Productivity, Additional 1.6 Billion Hectares of Arable Land will be
Needed by 2050!
• 60 - 80% of Africans live on small farms
• Majority are women who farm on less than 3 acres
• Land and Labour are farmers most important assets
• Farms are undercapitalized, markets inefficient
• 30 - 50% of GDP in most African nations is from agriculture
• Huge environmental, pest and logistical challenges
• Estimates of maize yields around the world:
SSA: 3.8MT/ha; SE Asia: 4MT/ha; Europe & USA: 8MT-15MT/ha
• 25% grain imported, 40% post-harvest losses
Africa Population will double by 2025 to 1.5 billion
371
How Do We Move Forward?• Given present trends in population, food production, trade, and the
environment, the necessary increases in production and income generation in rural areas cannot be achieved simply by expandingcultivated land and using current technologies
• We must strive to attain global sustainability as a precondition for human progress. The only realistic option is to invest in the science and technology necessary to increase the efficiency of agriculture and attempt to reverse the impact of man-made climate change-SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION
• We must address population, affluence, and technology simultaneously to move toward sustainability
• While agricultural production must be intensified to meet projected demands for food, feed, fibre and biofuels, intensification strategies must also change to avoid adverse environmental impacts and to reverse the effects of past practicesWe must use all safe, appropriate, socially responsible and sustainable opportunities to increase food supplies locally and also improve ‘orphan crops. This can be achieved by combining the best of conventional plant breeding with the new biotechnologies including marker assisted breeding and genetic modification of crop plants
We can change our future –
Science
provides us
with
tremendous
opportunities
Policy makers
have
opportunities and
(yet) time to act