#monetatesummit
11 Ways Humans Kill
Good AnalysisKevinErtell, Sur LaTable
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FOCUSED
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ENLIGHTENING
11 Ways Humans Kill Good Analysis
1. We hire reporters not analysts
Logical
Sequential
Rational
Objective
2. We turn analysts into reporters
Why is conversion down on Google
paid search?
Why is conversion down on Google
paid search?What’s'the'op+mal'marke+ng'mix'to'use'to'launch'Brand'X?
Why is conversion down on Google
paid search?What’s'the'op+mal'marke+ng'mix'to'use'to'launch'Brand'X?
Why'are'return'rates'growing?
3. We expect the data to be perfect and the analysis to be flawless
A man with one watch knows what time it is; a man with two watches is never quite sure.
4. We fail to define objectives and state our assumptions
5. We want numbers for number’s sake
KPIs
Suppor+ng'Metrics
Forensic'Metrics
Supporting metrics
KPIsSupporting metrics
6. We insist on simplicity
How likely are you to recommend this business?
• Large margins of error
• Low precision
• Low detection of movement • Interpretation problems
• Not very predictive
How likely are you to recommend this business?
All'we'did'was'quan+fy'this'common'sense'in'a'way'that'made'sense'to'business'leaders—the'target'audience'for'my'book.'These'prac+cal'leaders'have'liJle'interest'in'advanced'sta+s+cal'methods.'
All'we'did'was'quan+fy'this'common'sense'in'a'way'that'made'sense'to'business'leaders—the'target'audience'for'my'book.'These'prac+cal'leaders'have'liJle'interest'in'advanced'sta+s+cal'methods.'
These practical leaders havelittle interest in advancedstatistical methods
correlations
7. We just want the number
“Plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average.” -Sam Savage
8. We aren’t multilingual in the languages of business & statistics
Standard deviations
Standard deviations
Variances
9. We expect answers immediately
You’re approaching a Coast Guard security zone. … If you don’t stop your vessel, you will be fired upon. Stop your vessel immediately.
You’re approaching a Coast Guard security zone. … If you don’t stop your vessel, you will be fired upon. Stop your vessel immediately.
bang,'bang,'bang,'bangBang! Bang! Bang! Bang!
regression to the mean
10. We ignore our guts
Prefrontal cortex
11. We blow the presentation
