Download - საქართველოს ფისკალური რისკები
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TR(t) = IT(t-1)*(1+gt)*(1+it)*(1+at) + PT(t-1)*(1+g(t-1))*(1+i(t-1))*(1+at)+
+VAT(t-1)*(1+0,84gt)*(1+it)*(1+at) + ATD(t-1)*(1+gt/2) + ATI(t-1)*(1+0,7mt)
+ CT(t-1)*(1+mt)*(1+et) + RT(t-1)*(1+gt/2)*(1+at) + AT(t-1)*(1+0,02)
TR -
IT -
PT -
VAT -
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
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5 parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari vali/mSp 32.4% 29.4% 27.3% 26.4% 25.8% 24.6% 26.4% 50 vali/eqsporti 77.0% 65.4% 58.1% 55.6% 53.7% 49.2% 50.2% 200 vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 111.4% 108.3% 105.8% 104.2% 102.0% 110.7% 300 valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 25 valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 10.4% 10.2% 7.2% 7.2% 8.9% 11.2% 35 / 28.6% 26.4% 25.2% 25.0% 24.7% 24.1% 23.8%
/ 29.6% 29.4% 28.2% 28.0% 27.7% 27.1% 26.8%
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parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari
vali/mSp 32.4% 31.6% 30.5% 30.1% 29.0% 26.4% 27.4% 50
vali/eqsporti 77.0% 70.2% 65.0% 63.4% 60.4% 52.9% 52.3% 200
vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 116.8% 117.7% 117.2% 114.9% 109.0% 116.4% 300
valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.6% 6.2% 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% 5.3% 25
valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 11.0% 11.3% 8.2% 8.0% 9.5% 11.8% 35 / 28.6% 27.1% 26.0% 25.7% 25.2% 24.2% 23.6%
/ 29.6% 30.1% 29.0% 28.7% 28.2% 27.2% 26.6%
2013 - 7 %-, 2014 5,5 %, 2015
4,5 %, 2016 3 %-.
:
7
parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari
vali/mSp 32.4% 33.4% 33.3% 33.3% 31.5% 28.0% 28.4% 50
vali/eqsporti 77.0% 74.3% 70.9% 70.0% 65.7% 56.0% 54.2% 200
vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 126.6% 132.5% 133.7% 128.2% 118.1% 123.2% 300
valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 25
valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 10.4% 10.2% 7.2% 8.9% 10.3% 12.4% 35 / 28.6% 26.4% 25.2% 24.9% 24.6% 23.7% 23.1%
/ 29.6% 33.4% 30.7% 29.4% 27.6% 26.7% 26.1%
-
22
2013 50 %- (1
2,48 ) 2025 .
:
8
parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari
vali/mSp 32.4% 40.5% 37.1% 35.2% 33.5% 29.0% 28.9% 50
vali/eqsporti 77.0% 90.0% 78.9% 74.0% 69.7% 58.0% 55.1% 200
vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 152.2% 146.2% 140.3% 135.0% 121.2% 124.1% 300
valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 9.2% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 5.1% 5.6% 25
valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 15.5% 15.2% 10.7% 9.3% 10.6% 12.5% 35 / 28.6% 26.6% 25.4% 25.1% 24.8% 23.9% 23.3%
/ 29.6% 29.6% 28.4% 28.1% 27.8% 26.9% 26.3%
2013-2015 :
, ,
2016 :
9 parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari
vali/mSp 32.4% 47.6% 47.9% 47.7% 44.2% 35.3% 32.6% 50
vali/eqsporti 77.0% 105.7% 102.0% 100.4% 92.1% 70.5% 62.2% 200
vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 174.5% 183.3% 184.4% 173.8% 144.3% 137.3% 300
valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 9.9% 9.3% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 6.3% 25
valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 16.4% 16.8% 12.3% 12.0% 12.6% 13.9% 35 / 28.6% 27.3% 26.1% 25.9% 25.4% 24.4% 23.8%
/ 29.6% 34.3% 31.6% 30.4% 28.4% 27.4% 26.8%
-
23
, (, ,
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- :
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
24.6% 23.6% 22.4% 22.0% 21.7% 20.5% 19.4%
6.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%
11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 10.3% 10.0% 9.1% 8.1%
2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6%
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0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
( ) 6625 7152 7646 8503 9342 12913 17110
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29
1. Georgia: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and an Arrangement Under the Standby
Credit Facility International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 12/98, April
2012
2. The Joint World BankIMF Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries
IMF, April 2012
3. Aghion, P., and S. Durlauf, 2005, Handbook of Economic Growth, Vols. 1A and 1B
(Amsterdam: North-Holland)
4. Becker, S., Deuber G., Stankiewicz, S. (2010). Public Debt in 2020: A sustainability
analysis for DM and EM Economies., International Topics, Current Issues. Deutsche
Bank Research.
5. Glenday, Graham, Estimation of VAT Revenues based on Import and Domestic VAT
Returns and Collection Data, Duke Center for International Development, Duke
University, 2003
6. Disclosing Fiscal Risks in the Post-Crisis World - Greetje Everaert, Manal Fouad, Edouard
Martin, and Ricardo Velloso, IMF, 2009
7. Fiscal Risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management - Aliona Cebotari, Jeffrey Davis,
Lusine Lusinyan, Amine Mati, Paolo Mauro, Murray Petrie, and Ricardo Velloso, IMF,
2010
8. Managing Fiscal Risks, Teresa Ter-Minassian Annual Meeting of the Spanish Economic
Association, Zaragoza, December 12, 2008
9. A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability and Cyclical Adjustment
of Budgetary Aggregates, Julio Escolano, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF, 2010
10. . 2010.
: .
6, 4: 1-20
11. , , 2011
12.
13. 2012
-
30
1:
:
1: ( ) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1175 1937 2821 3910 5139 6552 5476 6086 7200 7450
608 910 1397 1801 2454 2639 2531 2834 3499 3788
% 51.7% 47.0% 49.5% 46.1% 47.8% 40.3% 46.2% 46.6% 48.6% 50.8%
420 621 585 846 1215 2113 1858 2033 2591 2833
% 36% 32% 21% 22% 24% 32% 34% 33% 36% 38%
48 125 105 168 102 617 389 472 307 239
% 4.1% 6.5% 3.7% 4.3% 2.0% 9.4% 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 3.2%
69 210 294 378 479 484 487 526 563 450
% 5.9% 10.8% 10.4% 9.7% 9.3% 7.4% 8.9% 8.6% 7.8% 6.0%
30 73 439 719 888 698 212 220 240 140
% 2.6% 3.8% 15.6% 18.4% 17.3% 10.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 1.9%
:
-48 363
252 459
128
-381
-1223 -951
-305 -514
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
()
-
31
2: ( )
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1446 1977 2993 3947 5719 6920 6685 7023 7505 7964
289 415 550 565 676 1008 1048 1120 1165 1218
% 20.0% 21.0% 18.4% 14.3% 11.8% 14.6% 15.7% 15.9% 15.5% 15.3%
. 312 328 564 767 1581 1614 1105 1139 1179 1188
% 21.6% 16.6% 18.8% 19.4% 27.6% 23.3% 16.5% 16.2% 15.7% 14.9%
169 141 120 104 97 121 171 206 290 341
% 11.7% 7.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.3%
105 217 441 343 413 524 435 393 426 447
% 7.3% 11.0% 14.7% 8.7% 7.2% 7.6% 6.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6%
383 434 558 762 851 1379 1506 1624 1660 1821
% 26.5% 22.0% 18.6% 19.3% 14.9% 19.9% 22.5% 23.1% 22.1% 22.9%
0 16 100 527 636 750 944 1001 833 954
% 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 13.4% 11.1% 10.8% 14.1% 14.3% 11.1% 12.0%
189 426 660 879 1465 1524 1476 1540 1952 1995
% 13.1% 21.5% 22.1% 22.3% 25.6% 22.0% 22.1% 21.9% 26.0% 25.1%
:
3:
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
% 29.4 27.3 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.4
( ) 7373 7700 8330 9100 9916 10811 11788 12852 13995 15216 16503 17862 19286
( ) 1954 2074 2217 2385 2578 2798 3046 3321 3624 3954 4310 4694 5104
(
) 8910 9335 10202 11101 12029 13078 14234 15498 16861 18321 19865 21499 23218
6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0%
( ) 30256 34189 38634 43077 47815 52836 57855 63062 68107 73215 77974 83042 88025
1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65
% 26.4% 25.2% 25.0% 24.7% 24.5% 24.3% 24.2% 24.1% 24.0% 23.9% 23.9% 23.9% 23.8%
% 29.4% 28.2% 28.0% 27.7% 27.5% 27.3% 27.2% 27.1% 27.0% 26.9% 26.9% 26.9% 26.8%
( ) 8002 8623 9644 10656 11719 12864 14001 15194 16353 17529 18648 19809 20970
( ) 8910 9648 10803 11949 13154 14449 15737 17086 18397 19725 20987 22300 23611
7932 8553 9574 10606 11669 12814 13951 15144 16303 17479 18598 19759 20920
978 1096 1229 1342 1484 1635 1786 1942 2093 2246 2389 2541 2691
908 1026 1159 1292 1434 1585 1736 1892 2043 2196 2339 2491 2641
-
32
4.
RYI - + , INF - , ADM -
Dependent Variable: LOG(VAT)
Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 1996Q2 2011Q4
Included observations: 63 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -4.704441 1.527700 -3.079428 0.0031
LOG(RYI(-1)) 0.845993 0.231202 3.659116 0.0005
INF(-1) 1.835530 0.221837 8.274227 0.0000
ADM 0.336177 0.096577 3.480912 0.0009
R-squared 0.971970 Mean dependent var 5.152089
Adjusted R-squared 0.970545 S.D. dependent var 1.037276
S.E. of regression 0.178022 Akaike info criterion -0.552432
Sum squared resid 1.869819 Schwarz criterion -0.416360
Log likelihood 21.40160 F-statistic 681.9684
Durbin-Watson stat 1.187378 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
2.
-.8
-.4
.0
.4
3
4
5
6
7
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Residual Actual Fitted
-
33
3.
)
- -
4.
-
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
10.4
10.8
11.2
11.6
12.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Residual Actual Fitted
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
9.2
9.6
10.0
10.4
10.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Residual Actual Fitted
-
34
5.
NY , ADM -
Dependent Variable: LOG(PITSA)
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1996Q1 2011Q4
Included observations: 64
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -4.774058 0.429644 -11.11165 0.0000
LOG(NYSA) 1.206037 0.058965 20.45352 0.0000
ADM 0.324934 0.068079 4.772905 0.0000
R-squared 0.978719 Mean dependent var 4.779460
Adjusted R-squared 0.978022 S.D. dependent var 0.859115
S.E. of regression 0.127365 Akaike info criterion -1.237783
Sum squared resid 0.989528 Schwarz criterion -1.136586
Log likelihood 42.60906 F-statistic 1402.726
Durbin-Watson stat 0.730652 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
5.
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
3
4
5
6
7
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Residual Actual Fitted
-
35
6. 6.
:
7.
:
230 161
120 103
101 86
82 72
68 55
46 41
39 39 38 37 35 34
26 23
10 10
6
0 50 100 150 200 250
Japan
Greece
Italy
United States
Singapore
France
United Kingdom
Austria
Spain
Poland
Croatia
Czech Republic
Turkey
Lithuania
Latvia
Ukraine
Armenia
Georgia
China
Moldova
Azerbaijan
Russia
Estonia -
, 2011
$ GEL
5,392,068 8,939,070
4,215,704 6,998,070
2,457,193 4,078,941
634,811 1,053,786
() 564,750 937,485
558,950 927,858
1,176,364 1,941,000
-
36
7. , 2012 31
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2 616
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