domec&vostokicecorecomparisonrps3.com/files/agw/vostok-domecicecorecompare... ·...
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At 12,000 YBP, 2/3rds of Canada was covered with ice.
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VOSTOK TEMPERATURE vs. DOME C TEMPERATURETemp: Age of Ice
(using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C Ice Core data) G. Stewart, 2009
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HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE TYPE CURVEVOSTOK & DOME C AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (for Cycle 1)
LAST 20,000 YEARSTemp: Age of Ice
(using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C Ice Core data) G. Stewart, 2009
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PLEISTOCENE (CYCLE 2) TEMPERATURE TYPE CURVEVOSTOK & DOME C COMBINED AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
Temp: Age of Ice(using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C Ice Core data) G. Stewart, 2009
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HOLOCENE vs. PLEISTOCENE TEMPERATURE TYPE CURVES COMPARISONDome C & VOSTOK ICE CORES(Temp Variation over Time)
LAST 30,000 YEARS with Forward ProjectionTemp: Age of Ice
(using EPICA, CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit data) G. Stewart, 2009
HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE COMPARISONVOSTOK & DOME C TEMPERATURE CURVES (for Cycle 1)
LAST 20,000 YEARSTemp: Age of Ice
(Using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C data) G. Stewart, 2009
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Are the “glory days” over?
WE PROJECT TO APPROXIMATELYHERE ON THE GRAPH.
1. Dome C & Vostok Temperature Comparison(Last 400,000 Years)
3. Pleistocene and Holocene Type Curves
Temperature Maximum (+ 5.4 degrees C)TMax: 5.46 dC
TMax: 3.62 dC
Temp Rise:0.65 dC/10yrs
Temp Fall:-0.66 dC/10yrs
Temp Rise:0.11 dC/10yrs
Temp Fall:-0.15 dC/10yrs
Cycle 2128,662 YBP
Cycle 3242,072 YBP
Cycle 4334,000 YBP
Cycle 5406,860 YBP
Temp Rise:0.74 dC/10yrs
Temp Fall:-0.82 dC/10yrs
Cycle 110,527 YBP
80% of Time Spentin Ice Ages
20% of Time Spentin “Warm” Ages
Where is the41,000 yr. 2nd OrderMilankovitch Cycle?
1st Order Milankovitch Cycles
Ice Age
Transition
Ice Age
Transition
Ice Age
Transition
Ice Age
Transition
Ice Age
Transition
Temp Rise:0.07 dC/10yrs
TMax: 3.15 dC
TMax: 2.73 dC
Temperature Maximum (+ 5.4 degrees C)
SEE ENLARGEMENT OFTHE PLEISTOCENE CYCLE 2
BELOW
These two Type Curves were hungon 0 degree temperature rise
Vostok Temperature: RedDome C Temperature: Blue
The Holocene lacks aTemperature Max Spike
DOME C & VOSTOK ICE CORE COMPARISON
? ?????? ???? ???????????M E L A N G E I N T E R N A T I O N A L , L L C
475 17th St., Suite 540 Denver, CO 80202
DOME C & VOSTOK ICE CORECOMPARISONS (Part 2)
Gary Stewart, [email protected]
ForDenver Climate Study Group
ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/pub/trends/co2/vostok.icecore.co2
Jouzel, J., C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, C. Genthon, N.I. Barkov,V.M. Kotlyakov, and V.M. Petrov. 1987. Vostok ice core: a continuousisotope temperature record over the last climatic cycle (160,000years). Nature 329:403-8.
Jouzel, J., N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz,C. Genthon, V.M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, J.R. Petit,D. Raynaud, G. Raisbeck, C. Ritz, T. Sowers, M. Stievenard, F. Yiou,and P. Yiou. 1993. Extending the Vostok ice-core record ofpalaeoclimate to the penultimate glacial period. Nature 364:407-12.
Jouzel, J., C. Waelbroeck, B. Malaize, M. Bender, J.R. Petit,M. Stievenard, N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, T. King, V.M. Kotlyakov,V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, D. Raynaud, C. Ritz, and T. Sowers. 1996.Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice records.Climate Dynamics 12:513-521.
Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola,I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delayque,M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius,L. Pepin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. 1999.Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from theVostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436.
Please cite the following work when using these data::
Stewart, G.C., 2009 Denver Climate Group, Unpublished
“Little Ice Age”
2. Dome C & Vostok Temperature Comparison(Last 20,000 Years)
- The purpose of the Type Curve is to cancel “noise” and amplify true events;- Cycle 2 (Pleistocene) Temperature data from both the Dome C and Vostok Cores were re-sampled on a 10-year
frequency, summed and averaged to create this “Type Curve”;- Since Temperature sample frequency decreased with time within each core, and the 1st Order Milankovitch Cycles
varied in duration for the five 1st Order Cycles within each core, stacking data from Cycles 2 through 5 within thesame core to create a Type Curve resulted in stacking data “out of phase” with each other. Therefore the identicalcycle temperature data from each core were stacked together to create individual Cycle Type Curves shown here;
- Original Temperature sample frequency for Cycle 2 in both cores ranged from 20 to 50 years
41,000 yr. 2nd Order?41,000 yr. 2nd Order?
Where is the HoloceneTemperature Maximum spike?
SUMMED&
AVERAGED
- The Holocene Type Curve constructed from the Vostok and Dome C cores lacks a Temperature Maximum spike;- The Holocene Temperature has hovered within one degree C of the transition to an ice age;- A small 1 degree C Temperature dip threw part of the world into the “Little IceAge”;- The Temperature Maximum from the Dome C prior cycles is a full 5 degrees C warmer than the Holocene average;- Temperature Sample Frequency for Cycle 1 ranges from 10 to 20 years
4. FUTURE PREDICTION AND CLIMATE MODELS(ENLARGEMENT)
CONCLUSIONS:1. The 10,000 years of the Holocene temperature “glory days” may be drawing to a close;2. The 1st Order Milankovitch Cycle appears to be the dominate factor with global temperatures and overwhelms any CO2 warming effects (below 300 ppmv);3. The 1st Order Milankovitch Cycle must be understood and included in any forward-looking climate prediction models;4. In the event the world has already started falling into the next ice age cycle, the rate of temperature rise measured since 1980 may be actually higher;5. A 4 to 5 degree C temperature rise apparently does not create a catastrophic global warming, and apparently does not significantly release gas hydrates;6. The rate of historic temperature rise (measured in the Dome C core) is more than triple the rate of temperature rise experienced during the last two decades;7. Currently the Earth teeters on the brink of entering the next ice age and we must be extremely cautious to embrace geoengineering at this point.8. Temperature either rises or falls. Those are your only two choices. If one does not like those choices, one needs to find another planet to live on.
NOTE:Assuming the four temperature maximums are related to the 1st Order 100,000 year Milankovitch cycles,CO2 had little effect in maintaining the high temperatures. As seen in Cycle 4, even though CO2 levelswere at maximum 299 ppmv CO2 (Vostok), temperature did not continue to increase, but actually made a abruptreversal. It therefore appears that the mechanical temperature rise & fall associated with 1st order Milankovitchcycles appear to overwhelm any warming effect associated with CO2, for CO2 levels below 299 ppmv;
Cycle 2 Temperature Type Curve
Holocene Temperature Type Curve
Cycle2
Temperature
TypeCurve
Years in the FutureYears Before Present
Years in the FutureYears Before Present
http://www.youtube.com/user/KoshlandSciMuseum#p/a/u/2/GoVPRJbvg1w
LOCATION MAP
Industrial Revolution
Stone Age
Bronze Age
ColumbusDiscoversAmerica
“Little Ice Age”
Check out how much closer we are to theIce Age Transition vs. Temperature Max
SEE ENLARGEMENT Industrial Revolution
Stone Age
Bronze Age
ColumbusDiscoversAmerica
“Little Ice Age”