dollarama case dcf

23
assumptions in thousands 2011 2012 new stores 35 35 2 year stores 40 35 setablished stores 564 604 Sales per new st 1800 1924 Sales per 2 year st 2000 2137 Sales per established store 2200 2351 Sales $ 1,383,800 $ 1,562,112 EBIT $163,288.40 $ 184,329 D&A $ 25,844.65 $ 29,174.91 Capex $ 20,354.23 $ 22,977.02 NOPAT=EBIT*(1-T) $ 106,137 $ 119,814 NOWC $ 205,503 $ 231,983 Change in NOWC $ 23,502.56 $ 26,480 FCFF $ 88,125 $ 99,531 Terminal Value PV(FCFF) $ 83,026 $ 88,347 Enterprise Value #VALUE! Value of Non Operating Assents = $ 34,000 Firm Value #VALUE! Debt $ 475,000 Equity Value #VALUE! Shares 72,700.00 Intrinsic Value per Share #VALUE! Over/Undervalued Exhibit 1: Dollarama Financial Data (For Fiscal Years Ending Febr 2007 2008 Number of stores 463 521 58 Income Statement Data Sales 888 972 Cost of Sales 588 641

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Page 1: Dollarama Case  DCF

assumptions in thousands2011 2012 2013

new stores 35 35 352 year stores 40 35 35setablished stores 564 604 639

Sales per new st 1800 1924 2056Sales per 2 year st 2000 2137 2284Sales per established store 2200 2351 2512Sales $ 1,383,800 $ 1,562,112 $ 1,757,239

EBIT $ 163,288.40 $ 184,329 $ 207,354

D&A $ 25,844.65 $ 29,174.91 $ 32,819.21

Capex $ 20,354.23 $ 22,977.02 $ 25,847.13

NOPAT=EBIT*(1-T) $ 106,137 $ 119,814 $ 134,780 NOWC $ 205,503 $ 231,983 $ 260,961 Change in NOWC $ 23,502.56 $ 26,480 $ 28,977 FCFF $ 88,125 $ 99,531 $ 112,775

Terminal ValuePV(FCFF) $ 83,026 $ 88,347 $ 94,310 Enterprise Value #VALUE!Value of Non Operating Assents = $ 34,000 Firm Value #VALUE!Debt $ 475,000 Equity Value #VALUE!Shares 72,700.00 Intrinsic Value per Share #VALUE!Over/Undervalued

Exhibit 1: Dollarama Financial Data (For Fiscal Years Ending February 1)

2007 2008 2009Number of stores 463 521 564

58 43

Income Statement Data

Sales 888 972 1,089 Cost of Sales 588 641 717

B24
Student:
Page 2: Dollarama Case  DCF

G&A (Incl. Store Operating Expenses) 156 188 222 Depreciation and Amortization 14 18 22 Operating Income (EBIT) 129 125 128

Balance Sheet DataCash and Cash Equivalents 48 26 66 Accounts Receivable 6 3 3 Merchandise Inventories 166 199 250 Accounts Payable 16 22 40 Accrued Expenses and Other 36 43 38 Non Cash NOWC 120 137 175 Change in Non Cash NOWC 17 38

Property and Equipment (Net) 85 112 130 Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets 848 845 843 Capex 24 16 Capex 42 38 Long-Term Debt (incl current portion) 820 679 822 LTD change (141) 143

Ownership Structure Post IPO Shares (millions) %Bain Capital Partners 42.2 58.0%Rossy Family 8.4 11.6%Other Company Insiders 2.3 3.2%Public 19.7 27.1%

72.7 100.0%

B55
Student: cash?
Page 3: Dollarama Case  DCF

Risk Free Rate 3.34%2014 2015 Sales g rate 6.86%

35 35 EBIT Margin 11.80%35 35 Tax Rate 35%

674 709 D&A % Sales 1.58% 1.85% 2.02% 2.02%Capex as % Sales 2.47% 1.47% 0.47%

2197 2347 NOWC % Sales 14.09% 16.07% 14.39%2441 26082685 2869 Weight of Equity 79.17%

$ 1,971,790 $ 2,207,512 Weight of Debt 20.83% #DIV/0! 0.00%

$ 232,671 $ 260,486 Cost of Debt 5.5%

$ 36,826.29 $ 41,228.76 Market Risk Premium 5%

$ 29,002.94 $ 32,470.16 Cost of Equity 6.8169%

WACC 6.14%

$ 151,236 $ 169,316 Terminal Growth Rate 2.50% $ 292,823 $ 327,829 $ 31,862 $ 35,006 $ 127,198 $ 143,069

#ADDIN? 2,359,196 $ 100,216 $ 106,199

EBITDA 2015 $ 301,715.16 EV $ 2,176,939.65

2010 Est604

4040

1,265 832

F21
Owner: assume g=0 because industry is highly competitive
G21
Student: right terminal value
Page 4: Dollarama Case  DCF

266 26 141

38 3 256 25 52 182 7

137 842 6 32 455 (367)

Page 5: Dollarama Case  DCF

average

1.87%1.47%

14.85%

Page 6: Dollarama Case  DCF

Exhibit 2. Canada's Largest Operators of Dollar Stores

Company Corporate/Franchise # of Stores Store size rangeDollarama Corporate 594 2,500 - 10,000Your Dollar Store With More Franchise/Corporate 135 8,000 - 15,000Great Canadian Dollar Store Franchise 104 2,000 - 10,000Buck or Two Franchise 79 Up to 6,000Everything For A Dollar Franchise 70 1,600 - 8,000Dollar Giant Corporate 65 8,000 - 15,000Dollar Blitz Franchise 40 NAThe $1 Store Plus & Only Deals Franchise 20 2,000 - 3,000

Page 7: Dollarama Case  DCF

Price point$1 - $2

Up to $2Up to $15

$1, $1.50, $2$1

$1.25 $1

$1 - $3

Page 8: Dollarama Case  DCF

Exhibit 3: Dollarama vs U.S. Dollar Store Peers (Trailing 12 months)

Dollarama Dollar TreeTotal stores 594 3,591

9,700 10,654Price point range $1 - $2 $1 or lessSKU count 4,400 5,000Offshore sourcing 52% 43%Private label 52% 10%Consumables mix 37% 49%Sales/selling sq ft $251 $158 EBIT margin 11.8% 7.9%Inv./gross sq. ft. $44 $18 Inventory Days 112 93

2010 2011SALES 1265 1351.807568361COGSEBIT = Average CM*Sales 149.27 106.7927979005NOPAT $97 $69

Average store size (selling + nonselling)

C17
Owner: sales growth = nominal GDP growth = 6.86%
B19
Owner: EBIT = EBIT Margin * Sales
B20
Student: tax rate = 35%
Page 9: Dollarama Case  DCF

99 Cents Only Family Dollar Freds Big Lots Dollar General279 6,655 639 1,339 8,362

21,125 8,325 18,400 29,789 7,017$0.99 $10 or less Multi Multi $10 or less

NA NA 12,000 20,000 10,500NA 46% NA 27% 50%Yes 19% 7% NA 21%56% 64% 47% 30% 69%

$273 $153 $184 $160 $180 1.8% 6.2% 1.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.8%$25 $19 $27 $19 $26 76 76 101 124 71

2012 2013 20141444.572096345 1543.702365915 1649.635210703

26.00229773422 95.70954668671 24.74452816055$17 $62 $16

Page 10: Dollarama Case  DCF

Confidential

Page 10

Exhibit 4: Data on Selected Publicly-Traded Retailers ($ millions)

Company Debt Net Debt EV/EBITDA Value/Sales

Dollarama (C$) 1,676 475 34 441 2,117 158 1,204 13.40 0.13

U.S. Dollar Stores/Discount/Off-Price Retailers

99 Cents Only Stores (US$) 845 0.6 128 -127.68 717 91 1,337 7.88 0.54

Big Lots (US$) 2,377 1.0 46 -44.907 2,332 348 4,630 6.71 0.50

Dollar General (US$) 7,949 4,138 517 3620.714 11,570 1,086 11,127 10.65 1.04

Dollar Tree (US$) 4,317 272 342 -70.2 4,247 619 5,059 6.86 0.84

Family Dollar Stores (US$) 3,914 250 445 -194.691 3,719 617 7,401 6.03 0.50

Fred's (US$) 367 5 39 -33.605 334 65 1,784 5.17 0.19

471 average 7.22 0.60

median 6.78

6.53

Enterprise Value 1,140

Shares 73

Market Value of Equity

Cash & STInvestments

Enterprise Value=MV(Equity)+Net

Debt

Last 12 MonthsEBITDA

Last 12 Months

Revenue

Page 11: Dollarama Case  DCF

Confidential

Page 11

Debt Ratio W eq D/E Unlevered Beta

0.208339731 0.791660269 34% NA 0.28

(0.177954) 1.177954 0.529 40% 0.45 0.00 0.45

-0.01925995 1.019260 1.127 40% 1.11 0.00 1.11

0.312938819 0.687061 30% NA 0.52

-0.0165305 1.016531 0.525 35% 0.52 0.06 0.50

-0.05234456 1.052345 0.361 35% 0.34 0.06 0.33

-0.10069519 1.100695 0.935 28% 0.85 0.01 0.84

unlevered bet 0.695 average 0.65 average Beta 0.64 ?

Last 12 Months

Gross Margin (%)

5-yr Equity Beta vs.

World Equity Mkt Portfolio

Page 12: Dollarama Case  DCF

Exhibit 5: Dollarama Price Comparison

Shoppers Drug Mart and Canadian Tire Dollarama

Size Price SizeDove Beauty Bar 2x120g $4.99 $2.08 100g50W Halogen 1 $5.99 $5.99 1Axe/Max Body Wash 354ml $7.49 $7.41 350mlReading Glasses 1 $14.99 $14.99 1AAA Batteries 4 $7.99 $7.99 4Tongue and Groove Plier 6.5” $17.99 $17.99 9.5”Muesli 350g $6.49 $3.71 200gBiodegradable Kitchen Sacs 20 $4.99 $2.50 10Wine Glass 4 $8.99 $2.25 1Total $64.90

Price Adjusted to Dollarama’s

Size

Page 13: Dollarama Case  DCF

Dollarama Savings

Price $ %$1.00 $1.07 52%$1.00 $4.99 83%$1.00 $6.41 86%$1.00 $13.99 93%$1.00 $6.99 87%$2.00 $15.99 89%$1.25 $2.46 66%$1.00 $1.50 60%$1.00 $1.25 56%

$10.25 $54.65 84%

Page 14: Dollarama Case  DCF

Exhibit 10: Macroeconomic Data

C$/$US

1990 1.8% 5.0% 4.0% 1.16 28.44 5.1% -14.8%1991 1.5% 3.8% 7.9% 1.16 19.15 -4.4% 12.0%1992 2.5% 2.1% 3.3% 1.27 19.49 6.5% -1.4%1993 4.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.32 14.19 10.3% 32.5%1994 6.9% 0.2% 1.5% 1.40 17.77 16.9% -0.2%1995 3.6% 1.8% 2.7% 1.36 19.54 6.0% 14.5%1996 4.5% 2.2% 3.1% 1.37 25.90 12.6% 28.3%1997 5.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.43 17.65 8.8% 15.0%1998 3.4% 1.0% 1.5% 1.53 12.14 -15.0% -1.6%1999 9.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.45 25.76 -3.5% 31.7%2000 8.7% 3.2% 1.3% 1.50 26.72 18.4% 7.4%2001 -0.4% 0.7% 1.6% 1.59 19.96 -12.0% -12.6%2002 7.8% 3.9% 2.4% 1.57 31.21 17.0% -12.4%2003 3.8% 2.0% 2.7% 1.30 32.51 -8.2% 26.7%2004 7.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.20 43.36 4.3% 14.5%2005 7.2% 2.2% 4.1% 1.16 61.06 14.8% 24.1%2006 3.2% 1.6% 4.6% 1.17 60.85 -2.6% 17.3%2007 6.9% 2.4% 5.0% 1.00 95.95 4.5% 9.8%2008 0.7% 1.2% 5.3% 1.22 39.25 -20.7% -33.0%

-2.9% 1.2% 5.5% 1.06 75.41 4.9% 33.4%

Average Nominal GDP Growth

Canadian Real GDP

Canadian CPI

Canadian Minimum Wage (C$)

West Texas Itermediate Oil Price per Barrel (US$)

CRB Commodities Total Return

Index (C$)

Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Total Return

Index(C$)

2009 (Sep)

A23
Student:
Page 15: Dollarama Case  DCF

Nominal GDP Growth

6.90%5.34%4.71%6.18%7.13%5.42%6.82%5.75%4.45%

12.04%12.20%

0.29%11.98%

5.88%9.66%9.46%4.88%9.45%1.83%

-

Average Nominal GDP Growth 6.86%

J2
Owner: 1+n = (1+i)(1+r)
Page 16: Dollarama Case  DCF

Exhibit 11: Candian Treasury Yields as of December 10, 2009

Maturity Yield3-months 0.13%

6-months 0.25%

1 Year 0.53%

2 Years 1.22%

3 Years 1.68%

5 Years 2.49%

10 Years 3.34%

15 Years 3.84%

20 Years 4.08%

30 Years 3.98%

Source: Bloomberg

Page 17: Dollarama Case  DCF

Sources: Amount % Capital Expected Return Expected Return After TaxDebt 5.50%Equity

Total Sources

Page 18: Dollarama Case  DCF

WACC (after tax) EBITDA Multiple

10-year Treasury Note [ rf ]Beta for dollar store companyEquity Premium [ Pe ]Firm Specific Risk Premium [e]Cost of Equity

COST OF EQUITY CALCULATIONE (re) = rf - β . Pe + e

Page 19: Dollarama Case  DCF

3.34%

?

5.00%0.0%

#VALUE!

COST OF EQUITY CALCULATION (re) = rf - β . Pe + e

Page 20: Dollarama Case  DCF

Income Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Sales 1265 1353.55 1422.175 1466.831 1484.433Cost of Sales:

COGSRentTransportationSupply Chain Cost

Total Cost of SalesEBIT 141.4017 170.2732 178.9061 184.5238 186.738NOPAT 91.91111 110.6776 116.289 119.9404 121.3797

C2
Owner: sames store sales growth increased from 3% historical average to 7% in 2010 (p.4)
B10
Owner: assume: tax = 35%
Page 21: Dollarama Case  DCF

2007 2008 2009 2010EBIT CM 14.53% 12.86% 11.75% 11.18%Average CM 12.58%