The East African Law Journal

BOOK REVIEWS

Adapt or Die: The Science, Politics andEconomics of Climate change.

Edited by Kendra Okonski, Profile Books Limited, London, 2003A Review by Geoffrey lmende'

Cynics have stated that part of the visionbehind the Kyoto Protocol 1997 portendsfor developing countries in the 21st cen-tury what apartheid bore for South Africain the zo" Century. The threats to human-ity that come with an increase in globaltemperatures include rising sea levels,changes in agricultural production, severeweather events such as hurricanes, thespread of diseases such as malaria andenvironmental effects such as the loss ofbiodiversity. Environmentalists have usedthese eventualities as justification to ad-vocate for the reduction of global trade,consumption of vital resources such as en-ergy, and most dramatically, suggestingthat third world countries should not pur-sue the same course of development asthe developed countries. The suggestedalternative is alleged to be environmen-tally friendly yet more expensive. Allthese are being pursued under the KyotoProtocol. The Protocol, said to be the 'in-surance policy' for humanity, has beenlargely driven by the assumption that theimpacts of global warming, if unmiti-gated, will pose threats to humanity andto the environment.

Adapt or Die is a collection of articlesfrom 13 eminent authors on the science,

politics and economics of climate change.The editor, Kendra Okonski, is the direc-tor of Sustainable Development for Inter-national Policy Network [London]. Sheholds an economics degree from HillsdaleCollege.

Adapt or Die pursues an alternative de-bate platform from that applied in theKyoto Protocol. According to PhilipScott, a Professor Emeritus of Biogeog-raphy in the University of London, Kent,it confronts the most tenacious myths ofthe new millennium, namely the danger-ously mistaken belief that the correct ap-proach to climate change is to try to man-age climate itself. The spirit of the bookis implied from its title: Adapt or Die. Inher Introduction to the book, KendraOkonski states that 'humanity has, overthe past 12,000 years, adapted to chang-ing circumstances, and there is no reasonto believe that such adaptation will notcontinue'. The challenge, according toher, is to create an environment in which •adaptation can flourish without being sti-fled.

The book evaluates strategies to mitigateglobal warming and its potential conse-quences and compares these with strate-

145

Book Reviews

gies focused on adaptation. The conclu-sion arrived at by the authors is that weshould prioritize our efforts and resourcesbased on a cost benefit analysis beforepursuing a particular course of action.

The book has been structured in a man-ner that makes it easy for the reader tograsp the issues raised. It proceeds with aforeword and introduction that give a con-cise insight at the contents thereof. Thesubstantive sections of the book are di-vided into four parts.

Part one of the book, titled, 'PossibleImpacts of Climate Change' analyses thenegative impacts of global warming thathave been propounded as its conse-quences. The purport of this section is toquestion the 'hyped' negative impacts ofglobal warming that have been proposedby environmentalists and policy makersas ajustification for taking unprecedentedmeasures to avert or reduce global warm-ing.

Dr. Paul Reiter delves into the questionof whether global warming would bringback mosquito - borne diseases to Europeas has been argued by alarmist environ-mentalists. He proceeds by first assess-ing the myth of the causes and conse-quences of global warming. He incisivelynotes at page 23 that:

The principal greenhouse gas is wa-ter vapour - about 2% in volume - butpublic attention is mainly focused oncarbon dioxide, a gas that is the ulti-mate source of carbon for nearly allplant life on the planet.

He then proceeds to analyze the lifecycle of the mosquito and the effect thattemperature has on it. He looks at life inAncient Greece and Rome, the Dark andMiddle Ages and finds that from ancienthistory, the spread of malaria was, con-trary to public opinion, at its most duringthe cold spells in the climate. This leadshim to the conclusion, at page 30, that:

The decline of malaria in all thesecountries cannot be attributed to cli-mate change, for it occurred during thewarming phase ..

According to Reiter, changes in lifestylesand living conditions were the most im-portant factors in the elimination of ma-laria from Europe. He therefore questionsenvironmental activists propositions, suchas those by the World Wildlife Fund, fordrastic environmental controls requiringthe expenditure of colossal sums ofmoney to curb the return of malaria inEurope due to global warming.

Dominic Standish, in Chapter 2, looks atthe impact of the application of the pre-cautionary principle to challenge the im-plementation of project MOSE intendedto control the 'sinking' of the City of Ven-ice. The project legally recognized in1973, but has yet to be implemented to-date, proposes a system of 79 mobile bar-riers that would block the high tides thatcause flooding. He concludes that the ap-plication of the precautionary principlehas been [ab]used by environmentaliststo prevent the 'adaptation' by the peopleof Venice to the threat posed by the in-crease in sea levels that threatens the ex-istence of the city.

146

The costslbenefit analysis of the KyotoProtocol is, perhaps, one of the most revo-lutionary revelations that this book bringsforth. Indur Golkany makes a tellinganalysis of the impact of global warm-ing. He notes that despite any warming,by virtually any climate-sensitive meas-ure of human well being, human welfarehas improved over the last century. Forinstance, he comes to the conclusion thatwith the Kyoto Protocol in place, thepopulation at risk of contracting malariawould only reduce by the year 2080 by ameager 0.3% compared to a 'non - Kyoto'period over the 1990 levels. In so far asfood production is concerned, he con-cludes, at pages 63 and 64 that:

... In the absence of global warming,global cereal production would in-crease by 123% in the 2080s. Such anincrease is only plausible providedagricultural technology continues toenhance productivity, sufficient in-vestments are made in the agriculturalsector and related infrastructure, andtrade continues to move food fromsurplus areas to deficit areas.

During global warming, agricultural pro-duction may decline in poor countries butmay increase in wealthy counties. Thus,downturns in economic growth, slowertechnological change, or less voluntarytrade of food supplies are more likely tocreate a future food crisis than any po-tential global warming.

The question therefore is whether it is pru-dent to invest all these resources to im-plement the Kyoto Protocol when thereare more pressing issues such as irnprov-

The East African Law Journal

ing the economic well being of the poorcountries to enable them increase their re-silience and capacity to withstand adver-sity. In other words, help third worldcountries develop a capacity to adapt.

In Part two of the book, the strategies foradapting to change are canvassed. Mar-tin Agerup looks into the science behindthe concept of global warming. He as-sesses the effects to the global tempera-ture from increases of various greenhousegases in the atmosphere. He concludesthat although water vapour is the mostimportant greenhouse gas, it is the leastunderstood by scientists in so far as itsimpact thereof is concerned. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change,the 'think tank' behind Kyoto Protocol,uses computer models to predict the im-pact that the GHGs have on the atmos-pheric temperature. However, the IPCChas conceded that:

Probably the greatest uncertainty infuture projections of climate arisesfromclouds and their interactionswithradiation....

This is based on the understanding thatwater vapour has both positive and nega-tive feedbacks to the atmospheric tem-perature. The models however only ap-ply its positive feedback thereby exagger-ating the effects on global temperature.He therefore argues that there has been"an abuse of the models to create an alarm-ing projection. In the European Unionalone, the cost of Kyoto Protocol wouldbe between 940 million and 2.6 billion

147

Book Reviews

Euros. Agerup argues that the fallacy ofthis is that the focus is on the Annex 1countries of the Protocol that have emis-sion targets to meet, yet, the portion ofemission from non - annex 1 countries,developing countries, is growing by theday from countries such as China, Rus-sia, and India. This would wipe out anybenefits from the perceived reduction inemissions from the annex 1 countries.

Though this argument is compelling, it isuntenable, in my view, to the extent thatit ignores the development of environ-mental principles such as the precaution-ary principle. Principle 15 of the Rio Dec-laration, 2002, requires States to protectthe environment according to their capaci-ties. It states that:

Where there are threats of possible ir-reversible damage [to the environ-ment], lack of scientific certaintyshould not be used as a reason for nottaking measures to prevent environ-mental degradation

Therefore, though there may be uncertain-ties as to the explicit effects of water va-pour to the atmospheric temperature, thisis no excuse for not taking precautionarymeasures in view of the impending threatsto the environment. It is further arguablethat adaptation occurs over time yet theprinciple presupposes a proactive ap-proach in view of impending threats tothe environment.

Barun Mitra tackles the issue of sustain-able energy for the poor. He specificallyfocuses on the Indian energy sector. He

finds that the reliance on traditional en-ergy sources such as cow dung, firewoodand kerosene has the most devastating ef-fects to the environment compared to in-dustrial pollution. He argues that the so-lution to this problem is not the reductionin energy consumption, but the increase.This he says would;

..lead to more energy efficiency, whichwill lead to environmental benefitsand sustainable energy consumption.

He argues for the address of the energyproblems of the poor people in the ruralareas. He concludes that;

The Clean Development Mechanism,part of the Kyoto Protocol, ... is moti-vated by the wrong goal - one of lim-iting rather than making energy avail-able, affordable and clean for every-one - it is likely to hinder rather thanpromote sustainable development.

Andrew Kenny, in Chapter 6 of the book,looks at the Clean Development Mecha-nism and what it portends for third worldcountries. He argues that the CDM is akinto religion used by missionaries to makethe colonization pill more palatable. CDMwill allow rich countries to meet their ownemissions cuts by reducing emissions inpoor countries. It provides that:

If a rich country pays a poor countryto reduce emissions by one ton, therich country can claim that ton as.credit towards meeting its own Kyototargets.

He therefore argues, and truly so, that thisis a carte blanche to allow rich countries

"AD

to choose projects based on their ideolo-gies, interests and needs than of the poorrecipient. This calIs for the rethinking ofthe CDM policy so as to enable poorcountries get technologies beneficial tothem. Kenny ought to make propositionsto enable poor countries playa more de-fined role in the programme.

Part three of the book looks at the eco-nomic consequences of climate changepolicy. Julian Morris looks at the prob-lems likely to be faced in the implemen-tation of the Kyoto Protocol. Morris ar-gues that to achieve greater results fromany environmental treaty or policy, trademeasures such as sanctions and tariffs arerarely the best way to do this. The argu-ment is made that due to this conclusion,the Kyoto Protocol should not adopt suchmeasures to ensure compliance. The crea-tion of enforceable private proprietaryrights in the item sought to be conservedis the most efficient and effective way toachieve its conservation. It is arguablewhether this concept can work in an is-sue such as climate change.

Martin Livermore addresses the threatposed by Kyotonomics on business. Helooks at the economic implications of en-forcement of the Protocol in Europe. Hefinds that businesses wilI carry most ofthe burden of its implementation, whichwilI be passed down to consumers. Thebeneficiaries in the whole scenario are thelarge multinational businesses capable ofinfluencing the policies at the interna-tional level. The smaIl businesses arelikely to lose any competitive edge vis-a-

The East African Law Journal

vis the multinationals. He argues thatbusinesses have the capacity to adapt tothe exigencies of time to be more effi-cient and produce environmentaIIyfriendly products. They should thereforebe allowed to economically adapt to theclimate change issue rather than be forcedto. This argument is, in my view, too capi-talist to be applied in a 'precautionary'world.

Part four of the book looks at the conceptof bootleggers, Baptists and the globalwarming battle. Bruce Yandle and StuartBuck investigate the reasons behind thewithdrawal by the United States from theProtocol. This they claim is due to the biasthat the Protocol has for Europe vis-a-visthe US and the impacts that the Protocolwould have to the US economy. They alsolook at the economic theory of regulation.This theory concerns the separate inter-est groups behind the Protocol, or anyother regulatory regime. For Kyoto, thesewould be the environmentalists, the poli-ticians and the multinational companies.Their varying interest in the climatechange debate has a direct effect on thepolicies adopted. Therefore, it is arguedthat due to the varying and selfish inter-ests by these groups, the policy behindKyoto Protocol is not what is most costeffective with the greatest environmentalbenefits. Again, this argument fails toconsider the precautionary approach as it •fails to give a proactive alternative.

In Chapter 10, Benny Peiser looks atwhether climate change is what it is posedto be; the genesis of an apocalypse. He

149

Book Reviews

looks at reasons behind past societies'collapse. He looks at the reasons behindthe collapse of the Roman and AkkadianEmpires and the Mayan civilization. Heconcludes that:

Contrary to popular belief, the biggestclimatic risk to the stability of com-plex societies is not global warming,but global cooling, and the potentialrisks this would pose or agriculturalon food production.

He therefore proposes that we adapt tothe threat of climate change just like oldensocieties adapted to threats to their exist-ence leading to discoveries such as fireand the agrarian revolution.

Carlo Stagnaro, in Chapter 11, investi-gates the political economy of climatechange. In looking at the costs of the Pro-tocol, he states:

Ifthe countries listed in the Protocol'sannex 1 fully accepted and enforcedits requests, the warming would beminimally mitigated, that is, by only3 - 10% in one-century period.

.... Kyoto will do little to help theearth's climate, 'with a temperatureincrease by 2100 of around 0.15 de-grees less than if nothing had beendone', and this would occur six yearslater - in 2100 rather than in 2094.

He proposes that we should prioritizeclimate change, amongst other policy pri-orities. This conclusion is also untenablein view of the precautionary principle de-spite the uncertainties inherent in the cli-mate change policies.

Finally, Kendra Okonski, the editor, looksat the scope covered by the book. Shewraps the whole debate covered in thebook and puts forward proposed alterna-tives to Kyoto.

Adapt of Die introduces a revolutionaryalternative to challenge the Kyoto Proto-col. Definitely a must read!

LLB Hons, Mol University, Bar candidate at Mo-hammed and Muigai Advocates.

150