School of Economics and Finance Curtin Business School

7th Australasian Housing Researchers’ Conference 6th – 8th February 2013

Esplanade Hotel, Fremantle, Western Australia The making of modern cities: examining long term urban land use

characteristics in Melbourne

Dr Joe Hurley RMIT Urban Research Centre

RMIT University

Dr Lucy Groenhart Swinburne Institute for Social Research

Swinburne University

Professor Gavin Wood RMIT Urban Research Centre

RMIT University

Professor Geoffrey Meen Department of Economics

University of Reading Corresponding author: Joe Hurley: joe.hurley@rmit.edu.au Abstract: This paper examines the nature of land use change over the long term in cities. It constitutes part of ongoing international research collaboration on the shaping of modern cities. The research seeks to understand the drivers of change, whether change is a gradual or discrete process, and the role of institutions in change. The central hypothesis of the research programme is that city structures change slowly due to path dependence that reflects inertia, increasing returns and transactions costs, but there are defining periods that produce major changes. These changes may flow from deliberate institutional interventions (such as infrastructure investment and policy change) or exogenous shocks (such as natural disaster, war, and technical change). We present the findings from a pilot study that employs property rate records and planning schemes to chart very long run changes in land use in the suburb of Carlton, Melbourne. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of this kind of research, and the potential importance of land ownership patterns to path dependence in urban development. If these findings were to be replicated more generally, they would suggest that an understanding of contemporary urban land use requires a more nuanced understanding of long run continuity and change in cities. Keywords: Urban; Land Use; Path Dependence.

Introduction An important issue that continues to vex urban researchers is the spatial distribution of urban poverty and wealth. These problems are not new and date back to the beginnings of urban analysis. Patterns of segregation tend to be highly persistent. At least in relative terms, there appears to be continuity between the most affluent and the poorest neighbourhoods of many major cities, which extends over decades if not centuries. This is particularly evident in European and North American cities (Nitch 2003; Wyly 2008; Nygaard and Meen 2013), but less so in Australian cities, where class changeover in inner city areas is more evident (Badcock 2001; Baum et al 2005; Forster 2006). This gives rise to questions of the drivers of such continuity and change, in particular how policy and infrastructure actions can be effectively implemented to achieve more equitable and integrated communities1

.

In terms of the spatial patterns of wealth and poverty, the monocentric access-space trade-off model of land use and its extensions have been the work horse for urban economists and have provided valuable insights into the structure of urban systems (Alonso, 1964; Muth, 1969). The approach has been helpful in explaining many of the characteristics of cities, providing possible explanations of segregation, growth and urban sprawl for example, within a fairly simple, bur elegant framework. But, arguably, the approach is not best suited to an empirical examination of the dynamics of urban change and alternatives have been suggested. The seminal work of Schelling (1969; 1971) is a more recent approach that uses the techniques of agent-based modelling to explain city structures through properties of self-organisation. These models incorporate features of social interactions between households, generating spatial structures which remain stable for long periods of time, but are capable of occasional phase transitions to different structures in response to large shocks. Where inertia is a feature, policy initiatives may be slow to have the desired effect, responses are potentially non-linear and changes may have to be very large rather than marginal in order to induce the desired outcome. Further insights are yielded by the New Institutional Economics (Williamson, 1975; Williamson, 1981; Webster and Lai, 2003); even if cities evolve from the explicit, optimal decisions of households, companies and governments, consistent with neo-classical models, decisions are constrained by imperfect and asymmetric information, the inherited structure of the built environment, institutional norms, property rights and the underlying technologies available. The distribution of households in any city arises from the demographic trends and from moving/migration decisions, both of which are influenced by the built environment, social norms and by policy. Path dependence occurs because households, across generations, may become locked-in to a given pattern of land use. This arises from the fixity of the built environment and the nature of property rights. The historical physical structure of cities – the buildings, road networks and infrastructure – provide constraints on the current decisions of households, so that household mobility is not fully responsive to current market opportunities. Lock-in to existing spatial patterns may also arise because of the nature of networks, particularly important for migrants, which generate forms of increasing returns from the spatial concentration of socio-ethnic groups. Finally, institutional arrangements can be a cause of inertia as the transaction costs associated with different property right arrangements prompt uneven development. These ideas and concepts give rise to the central hypothesis of our research: internal city structures typically change only slowly due to structural persistence and path dependence that reflects inertia, increasing returns and transactions costs, but there are defining periods that produce major changes. These flow from deliberate institutional interventions, such as 1 A recent influential book addressing these kinds of issues is Glaeser (2011).

infrastructure investment and policy change, or exogenous shocks, natural disasters, new technologies or war. Given this, the research examines the significance of long-term pathways of urban evolution over the centuries, and shows how history can contribute to an explanation of current urban problems through processes of path dependence. These ideas require a fundamentally different approach to those typically applied in urban analysis. Inertia cannot be adequately modelled by a conventional time-series approach that adds lags to the econometric models of essentially static equilibrium relationships of the drivers of urban change. The view that decisions of households, companies and governments are constrained and hence urban systems are in a permanent state of disequilibrium, rather than equilibrium, cannot be adequately captured by such an approach. Additionally, as described above, systems may exhibit long periods with minimal change, punctuated by periods of discrete change, in response to large shocks. But, by their nature, large shocks are infrequent. In this case, conventional data sets may simply be too short to find evidence of change. Therefore, the research requires the construction of novel long-run data sets as a basis for historical research. This paper describes the methodological approach underpinning a pilot study of long run urban development, as well as findings from the first phase of empirical research, conducted in Melbourne. Melbourne provides a particularly valuable case by international standards because it has the advantage that its history is well documented from its European foundation in the 1830s (Davison, 1978). For example, in addition to census records, micro data sets can be constructed from rate records, covering property values, changes of ownership, and property types. The study demonstrates the feasibility of producing a detailed long run account of housing and land characteristics based on rate records and land use maps; allowing investigation of continuity and change in land use and the built environment over a 71 year period 1879 - 1950. The remainder of the paper is set out as follows. In the next section we outline the pilot study’s methodology. We compare the strengths and weaknesses of alternative data sources as vehicles for the analysis of long run urban development, and describe the chosen data source - local government rates records and land use maps. Their format, scope and processing are reported. The empirical content of the paper is then presented. A detailed description of the evolution of land use patterns over the years 1879 – 1950 is presented and cross tabulated with land ownership arrangements. A final section sums up and offers some thoughts on future research directions. Research approach A range of data sources were considered for the pilot study. The Historical Census and Colonial Data Archive (HCCDA) is a searchable archive of Australian colonial census publications and reports for 1833 to federation at 1901. This includes colonial census reports for Victoria but not individual census returns. There is information on dwelling numbers and type, however this is aggregated to towns, electoral provinces and counties. The census archive can provide contextual information about wider societal and economic trends, but is not sufficiently disaggregated to allow detailed analysis of urban change. Municipal council rate records are held by the Victorian Public Records Office for a number of local government areas in Victoria, including the City of Melbourne. The rate books have been transferred to microfiche and microfilm, and for the City of Melbourne cover each year from 1845 to 1975 inclusive. The rate books include each rateable property in the municipality, and therefore offer a highly detailed, lot level record of the urban environment. However, given this level of detail, the rate records are resource intensive to translate into an analysable digital form.

A range of detailed spatial maps of inner Melbourne are available over the time period, sourced from the State Library of Victoria. Early maps from the 1850s produced by the Surveyor Generals Office, and later the Department of Lands and Survey, record subdivision and land grants for the extension of Melbourne known as Carlton. With the establishment of the Melbourne Metropolitan Board of Works in 1891 more detailed land use maps are available. In particular, the detailed Melbourne Metropolitan Board of Works (MMBW) ‘40 feet to 1 inch’ maps of inner Melbourne show detailed lot level data on built form, land use and infrastructure provision at the end of the 19th Century2

. When cross tabulated with rate record data the maps allow for an accurate spatial representation of rate record data.

Given resource and time constraints, the research team focused on testing the feasibility of using rate book data to establish a record of long term urban change at a fine grained spatial scale. The pilot study aims to create a digital database of lot level urban characteristics (built form and economic) based on the rate books. This could then be interrogated using statistical techniques to examine changes to the urban environment. The pilot study focuses on one street, Bouverie St, in Carlton, Melbourne, on the northern fringe of Melbourne’s CBD. Bouverie St runs from the edge of Melbourne’s CBD to the site of the University of Melbourne. It was selected because it is relatively short compared to many Melbourne streets (approximately 700 meters in length), which made the collection of sufficient rates data feasible, and because it has been established since the 1840s. We analysed seven individual rate books spread between 1879 and 1950, with up to 154 individual property records in each year. Table 1 lists the sample numbers (number of properties) in each of the seven rate book years – the declining number reflecting some consolidation of land use over the timeframe (see below for further discussion). For each property in the rate books we recorded land owner; property type (for example, house, factory, shop, hotel, warehouse); and annual rateable value in pounds. Where possible we also recorded occupier; street number; building material; and number of rooms.

Table 1: number of rateable properties in Bouverie Street for each year analysed

Year 1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950

Number of properties 154 134 119 116 103 66 67

Over the study period, records are stored on microfiche (to 1900) and microfilm (from 1901). The left hand panel in Figure 1 illustrates the raw data source from the 1890 rate records. While the records are a rich source of information, it is recorded in handwriting that can be difficult to read accurately. It took around half a day to transcribe each rate book into a Microsoft Excel database, for Bouverie Street alone. The ownership and property type information is particularly helpful for our purposes as it allows analysis of the consolidation or fragmentation of ownership and associated changes in land use. The right hand panel in Figure 1 shows the digitised data set as recorded in Excel spreadsheets by the researcher.

2 These cover Bouverie Street, the subject of our pilot study (see MMBW 1896a; 1896b)

Figure 1: Screen shots of rate books on microfiche (left) and digitised copy (right)

The rate book data was supplemented with examination of land use maps from the MMBW, along with photographs and illustrations of Bouverie Street from the study period. This enabled the rate records to be matched with individual land plots, and historic and contemporary urban form to be compared. Pilot study analysis The rate records, when digitised, provide the opportunity to track a number of urban characteristics over time. In this section we look in turn at the long run profile of land use, land value, and finally, patterns of land ownership and built form for the pilot study site. One of the consistent elements contained in all rate books is the recording of property type. There are fifteen different identifiers of property type present in the data set. These types were coded into five groups to represent land use: residential; commercial; industrial; land; and other (see Table 2). Digitising and coding this land use data from the rate records is the key information source facilitating long run analyses of changes in land use.

Table 2: Land use coding from property types (with associated number of individual records 1879 - 1950)

Land use code Property types Residential House (499); Flat (2). Commercial Shop (106); Hotel (25); Office (2) Industrial Factory (54); Workshop (8); Brewery (7); Warehouse (5); Store (3) Land Land (34) Other Stable (5); Fire Station (5); Mission Hall (1); Substation (1); Illegible (2)

Figure 2 presents the proportion of rateable records associated with each land use in Bouverie Street, Carlton for selected years within the time frame 1879 - 19503

3 Individual properties will of course differ in terms of land area. Land area is not recorded for each lot and so we are forced to use the number of properties and their type to measure land use. However the number of rate records (properties) and the land area they encompass will be correlated justifying their employment as the basis for measures of changing land use.

. As the figure

shows, there is stability in land use proportions from 1879 until 1910, despite the significant economic boom of the 1880s and bust of the 1890s (Davison 1978). From 1910 a decline in commercial land use is evident, but with only slight rises in industrial land use and vacant land there is no suggestion of a major shift in land use. However, after 1920 the proportion of industrial rateable properties rises sharply, corresponding with a sharp drop in residential land use. In contrast to the early decades of stability, the data indicates a period of substantial land use change from 1910, and in particular between 1920 and 1940. By 1950 Bouverie Street has changed from a mixed use precinct incorporating residential, commercial and industrial land use, to one that is dominated by residential and industrial use. Indeed the 1950 data show that nearly 9 in every 10 lots were employed for either residential or industrial purposes.

Figure 2: Land Use Patterns; Bouverie Street 1879 – 1950

Land Use %

0%

20%

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60%

80%

100%

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950

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Commercial

Industrial

Land

Other

The rate books also allow us to track land values as measured by assessed rateable values. The rateable values are based on an estimate of the market rent of each property in its current use (rather than an estimate of ‘highest and best use’), and thus represent a good indicator of the relative value of different land uses. Average rateable values show a rapid increase over the ‘marvellous Melbourne’ (Davison 1978) boom years 1879 to 1890, with values increasing from ₤37 (154 properties) to ₤61 (134 properties) over this 11 year timeframe (see table 3). From 1900 we are able to convert values into a constant price series using the Reserve Bank of Australia’s pre-decimal inflation calculator (http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualPreDecimal.html). The constant price series show that between 1900 and 1920 average rateable values oscillated around a $6,000 per property threshold without establishing a clear upward or downward trend. But they then soared over the 20 years 1920 – ’40 reaching $19,908 (66 properties) in 1940. It turns out that average annual values at constant prices increased by nearly 400% between 1920 and 1940 (see Table 3). They then drifted down (again in real terms) so that by 1950 they were lower than in 1940. Because of war related shortages there was rapid consumer price inflation between 1940 – 1950, and this accounts for the decline in real per property rateable values despite the nominal increase in average rateable values 1940 - 1950.

Table 3: Average rateable values over time1

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950

Average Rateable Values Current Prices ₤37 ₤61 ₤44 ₤55 ₤86 ₤268 ₤382

Average Rateable Values Constant (2011) Prices1 $5,911 $6,678 $5,272 $19,908 $17,336

Note : 1 The constant price series use the Reserve Bank of Australia’s pre-decimal inflation calculator (http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualPreDecimal.html). The calculator is available from 1900 onwards and is used here to compute land values at 2011 prices. There are corresponding trends in the consolidation of contiguous lots as can be inferred from Table 1. Between 1879 and 1920 the number of properties in Bouverie Street declined from 154 to 103, a one third reduction that is the product of a slow rate of consolidation over the entire 41 year time frame (equal to 0.8% per annum), though there is evidence of a spurt in amalgamations of adjoining properties over the boom years 1879 – 1890, when the number of properties decreased by 13% from 154 to 134. But over the 1920 – ’40 period the rate of consolidation more than doubles to 1.8% per annum with the number of lots in 1940 64% of the number in 1920, and only 43% of the number 61 years before (1879). Over the next decade 1940 - 1950 real land values slump and the consolidation of contiguous sites ends. It is also illustrative to breakdown aggregate land value in Bouverie Street by land use category, as in Figure 3. The proportion of total rateable value associated with each land use will reflect the number of properties in each land use category, as well as average rateable values in each category. The dominance of industrial land value by 1950 is a striking feature apparent from Figure 3. In that year industrial land sites account for 93% of the rateable values of all land sites, yet the comparable share was only 25% back in 1879. Before 1920 the number of industrial lots along Bouverie Street was small, oscillating between 4 and 8 over the 41 years going back to 1879. But there is then a surge in land consolidation (see table 1) that correlates with a rush of conversions from residential to industrial land use, as the number of industrial properties nearly trebles from 8 to 24 over the period 1920 to 1940. Over the critical timeframe 1920 – ’40 it seems that rapid expansion in the land area used for industrial purposes accounts for most of its rising share of total rateable value in Bouverie Street; over the same period that we witness a wave of land conversions the average rateable value of industrial properties was actually stagnant (in nominal values) . In 1920 the average rateable value of 8 industrial properties was ₤705, falling marginally to ₤671 with respect to 28 industrial properties in 1940. At constant 2011 prices these average values are $43402 and $49845 respectively. However, these industrial land values are much higher than the average (constant price) values for all land plots along Bouverie Street in the same years ($5,272 in 1920 and $19,908 in 1940).

Figure 3: Average Rateable Land Values 1879 – 1950

Value %

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Land

Other

The primary data, once digitised and coded, has the capacity to reveal significant changes in urban characteristics when considered over long time periods. In the pilot study of Bouverie Street we see stable land use punctuated by dramatic change in the early 20th Century. This in turn raises questions about the drivers of such change. Where is the demand for industrial land coming from and what is enabling its location in this area of South Carlton? How does it compare with other areas of Melbourne? Is it consistent across Carlton and Melbourne’s other inner suburbs? While these questions and others drive the ongoing program of research, we can point to several potential factors; and using the pilot data, we can offer some empirical evidence. There are a number of metropolitan wide drivers that could be influencing change in the built environment along Bouverie Street. The early 20th Century is a period of growing suburbanisation in Melbourne, particularly of the working class, facilitated by new transport infrastructure (Howe 1994; Lewis 1999). This would have caused a decline in demand for residential properties in this inner city area, and a fall in the relative price of residential property which could motivate change in land use. The proximity of Bouverie Street to the CBD, along with the boom of non-industrial sectors within the CBD could also drive increasing interest in the area, along with local area industry agglomeration economies, particularly given the prominence of the rapidly expanding Carlton and United Breweries. A further local area characteristic of interest is the pattern of land ownership over this period, in particular the proportion of large land holdings, potentially better facilitating changes in land use than fine grained land ownership (Evans 2004). This last point is of particular interest, as many other streets in South Carlton did not undergo the substantial shift to industrial use in the early 20th Century that is evident in Bouverie Street. By combining data from the rate books with historic land use maps, such as those from the MMBW, we are able to analyse the spatial pattern of land ownership. It was immediately evident from the rate book data that most land owners in Bouverie Street owned more than one property, and these land holdings were nearly always co-located. Further, when analysing the rate books it became apparent that the spatial pattern of these land holdings persisted, despite changing ownership. To investigate the nature of this local characteristic further we mapped rate book data on tenancy and land ownership to detailed land-use maps

from 1896, and then compared the results with current day built form. This analysis was carried out for the entire length of Bouverie Street. To illustrate, Figure 4 demonstrates the analysis for a short section of Bouverie Street. The image in the top left shows a small section of the detailed MMBW land use map of Bouverie Street from 1986. Overlayed on the same image in the top right is the tenancy information from the 1900 rate book. In combination, these two images indicate a fine grain of built form and tenancy, with each building occupied by a different tenant. This predominance of tenants compared with owner occupiers is evident across the data set in 1900, with only 14% of rateable properties being owner occupied. The image at the bottom left shows the pattern of land ownership in this section of Bouverie Street. It shows there are two aggregated land holdings: one owned by Lloyd, the other by Snowball. Again, this pattern plays out across the whole street, with significantly fewer landlords (51) in 1900 than properties (119). So what we see here is a reasonably fine grain of land use and built form against a backdrop of somewhat consolidated land holdings.

Figure 4: Changing land use, persistent land ownership pattern.

Detail: land use in 1896.

Overlay of land tenancy in 1900.

Overlay of land ownership in 1900.

Overlay of built form in 2013.

(Base map from MMBW 1896b, courtesy of State Library of Victoria) Where a landlord owns multiple properties, these are nearly always located next to each other. Importantly, in the area of Bouverie Street, when a landlord decides to sell property, the sale is almost always of an entire land holding (consisting of several individual titles) rather than of individual titles. As such there is very little fragmentation of land holdings over the study period. So, for example, Snowball owns seven adjacent rateable properties, all with different tenants. When he sells between 1910 and 1920 he sells his entire land holding to Doyle. This is repeated across the whole data set, where we see very little change in the

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ownership pattern from 1900 to 1920. While the actual landlords may have changed, the spatial pattern of land ownership remains almost identical. Finally, the bottom left image of Figure 4 represents the current built from along Bouverie Street. What this shows is an exact one-to-one match between the land ownership pattern in 1900 (and 1920) with the built form pattern in 2013. Again, this relationship of early 20th Century ownership patterns to current day built form repeats across the length of Bouverie Street. Comparing 1920 land holdings with current day built form there are almost no cases of fragmentation of ownership across the street. While there are several cases of consolidation, these are in the minority, and apart from the Carton and United Breweries site, exist as the amalgamation of two or three adjacent land holdings. The built form in 2013 is an almost exact replica of the pattern of land ownership in 1920. It is important to note that the underlying pattern of land titles has a much finer grain – it is the land ownership pattern, not the individual title pattern that is reflective of current day built form. While the change in ownership patterns has been minimal, the change in built form across the street has been dramatic, from a fine grain mix of terrace houses, shops, hotels, workshops and factories in 1900, to large industrial sites by 1950, and a mixture of large commercial and residential complexes today. Conclusion and future research directions This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of using rate book records and spatial maps to profile the long run evolution of land use in a Melbourne suburb. Our chosen site, Bouverie Street, Carlton, is located on the edge of the city’s CBD. We transcribed data from each rate record into an Excel spreadsheet that recorded the property type, its rateable value, owner, tenant and building material over the period 1879 – 1950. In 1879 there were 154 properties, and nearly 80% were residential. However, ownership was concentrated with the multiple contiguous land holdings of larger owners. We find stability in land use patterns from 1879 until 1910, despite the significant economic boom of the 1880s and bust of the 1890s. A fall in commercial use of land over the next decade heralds a profound shift from 1920 – 1940. In this period soaring land values are accompanied by a radical conversion of land along Bouverie Street to industrial use. We also witness the consolidation of properties that in 1940 number 66, or only 43% of the number of properties comprising the urban form in this part of Carlton in 1879. When rate record data is combined with land use maps we find that the pattern of land holdings in 1920, prior to this built form and land use shift, is almost identical to the pattern of land holdings in 2013. So while Bouverie Street changes dramatically after 1920, from a fine grain of buildings and land titles with mixed land-use, to a more aggregated built form dominated by industrial land-use, the underlying spatial pattern of land holdings remains almost identical. This points to both the persistence of spatial patterns of land ownership; and to the potential importance of particular patterns of land ownership in enabling land-use and built form change over time. Our findings therefore suggest a fragmented ownership hypothesis that highlights land ownership patterns as a key enabler of changing built form and land use over time. Plots of land could have a fragmented ownership pattern where in the extreme each plot is owned by one ‘agent’ (individual, proprietor…etc.). Alternatively ownership patterns could be concentrated with contiguous plots owned by the same ‘agent’, or in the extreme all plots are owned by one ‘agent’. Where development pressures are strong the rate of transition from one land use to another will be slower the more fragmented the ownership pattern, and this is particularly evident the more land intensive the ‘new’ land use is. Developers must negotiate with numerous owners when ownership patterns are fragmented making the assembly of suitable land parcels more costly. Moreover, the more fragmented the

ownership the more likely is price gouging where small landowners ‘hold up’ the developer in the hope of securing large price premiums (Eckart 1985). At this stage our data base is not able to support robust investigation of this hypothesis (or other possible explanations of change in land use) and so this discussion is speculative. The most important data deficiency is the absence of a ‘control’ sample of properties from nearby streets that have the same locational and other features as Bouverie Street, but different ownership patterns. By sharing most of the same features a control sample can serve to isolate the role of the factor we are interested in – the geography of ownership. These ideas will be a guiding influence in shaping this promising programme of research.

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