swans, elephants, and jellyfish: the three mascots of postnormal times
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John A. Sweeney Deputy Director, Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies Researcher, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies @aloha_futures
Swans, Elephants, & Jellyfish The Three Mascots of Postnormal Times
DECOLONIZE THE FUTURE!
What’s your sense of the future?
taking a roller coaster ride
kayaking down a river
sailing on an ocean
throwing dice in a game of chance
determinism
What’s your sense of the future?
taking a roller coaster ride
kayaking down a river
sailing on an ocean
throwing dice in a game of chance
!
knowns
strategic foresight
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known
!
unknown!
knowns
!
known!
unknowns
!
unknowns
!
unknown
plausible
probable
possible
preferable
Problems with Taleb’s notion of a “Black Swan”
How is Postnormal Times?
Complexity Chaos Contradictions
These are all of the vested interests and areas of critical concern for political stability in Afghanistan.
Complexity.
The 2008 financial crisis cost $22 trillion…and counting.
Chaos.
The richest 85 people in the world own as much wealth as the bottom half (3.5 billion).
Contradictions.
Postnormal Times
ContradictionsChaos
Complexity
PNT
It took 16 years to reach one billion smartphones (1996-2012). The next billion is expected to arrive…
Accelerating Change.
Manufactured Vankatesh Rao
Normalcy@vgr
“A magazine is an iPad that doesn’t work.”
Persistent and uncontrollable leaks have pushed the cleanup of radioactive water emanating from Fukushima into unknown territory.
Uncertainty.
Postnormal Times
ContradictionsChaos
Complexity
Unc
erta
inty
Accelerating Change
manufactu
red no
rmalcy
actual/p
ercep
tual p
ostnorm
alcy
weird
1992
2007
Change happens!
“We are in the position of a tourist who is planning a journey with the help of a guidebook that is already out of date.”
— Betrand de Jouvenel (1967)
What does this mean for tomorrow?
Resistance Resilience Responsivity
Strategies for Tomorrow…
Unc
erta
inty
Accelerating Change
Extended Present
Familiar Future(s)Today
Unthought Future(s)?
3T Three Tomorrows
Unc
erta
inty
Accelerating Change
Extended Present
Familiar Future(s)Today
3T Three TomorrowsUnthought Future(s)?
The Extended Present
Trends & Weak Signals Resistance Black
Elephants
The Extended Present
High Impact “In the room”
Black Elephants
The Familiar Future(s)
Imaginings of the Future(s) Resilience
Black Swans
The Familiar Future(s)
High Impact “Highly Improbable”
Black Swans
The Unthought Future(s)
Simulation & Creativity Responsivity Black
Jellyfish
The Unthought Future(s)
Global Weirding
Positive Feedback
Black Jellyfish
Resistance Resilience Responsivity
Strategies for Tomorrow…
Black Swans Black Elephants Black Jellyfish
2010 volcano in Iceland - 20 countries - 10 million people
foresight insight action
“Collaboration without foresight is dangerous, and foresight without collaboration is pointless.”
