political risk: kyrgyzstan (with colonel ted donnelly, 2013)

TD-JL Kyrgyz Republic Political Risk 1

Kyrgyz Republic

Political Risk “The East is a Delicate Matter”1

Ted Donnelly

[email protected]

Dr. John L. Linantud

[email protected]

Associate Professor of Political Science

University of Houston-Downtown

Published 18 October 2013

< http://www.cpcusociety.org/article/kyrgyz-republic-political-risk>

Note: Ted Donnelly is a Eurasian Foreign Area Officer in the United States Army. He has had

frequent assignments in Central Asia since 2004 and most recently served in the Kyrgyz

Republic from 2009-2011. Any views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not

necessarily represent the official position of the United States government, the Department of

Defense, or the United States Army.

1 A popular quote taken from the classic 1970 Soviet film “White Sun of the Desert”, a comedy/satire set

in Soviet Central Asia immediately following the Russian Civil War. In the film, a Red Army soldier

encounters various characters and complex situations as he tries to make his way home.


I. Introduction

In a large tent not far from the airport runway outside Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic2,

several U.S. Air Force personnel enjoy a drink after their work shift. They are assigned

to the Transit Center at Manas International Airport, a small, unassuming canvas and

plywood compound through which most U.S. and coalition forces transit to and from

Afghanistan. The tent is Pete’s Place, a recreation center named after Pete Ganci, the

former Chief of the Fire Department of New York, who was killed during rescue

operations on September 11, 2001. If the airmen are lucky, they might get to take a

cultural excursion into Bishkek that includes a shopping visit to the Central Department

Store (TSUM), where ethnic Russian vendors in small booths hawk everything from

Soviet kitsch to traditional Kyrgyz handicrafts to bootleg DVDs and video games to cell

phones (lots of cell phones). They might even visit the vast open air Dordoi bazaar north

of town, a seemingly unending maze of shipping containers packed with Chinese

consumer goods of all types. Shipping containers are ubiquitous in this country – the

Kyrgyz Republic imports much and exports very little. Indeed, much of the Transit

Center living and working infrastructure is constructed from refurbished shipping

containers, and an enterprising American businessman even opened a factory to modify

shipping containers into office and living space. Some thirty miles to the east, Russian

Federation military personnel enact similar rituals at an old Soviet air force base outside

of the town of Kant. The east is indeed a delicate matter.

II. Great Game II?

Even casual observers of Central Asia are familiar with the Great Game metaphor,

immortalized in Peter Hopkirk’s 1992 classic eponymous book. Hopkirk may have been

the first Westerner to view Central Asia through the prism of great power conflict (in

his case Tsarist Russia and imperial Great Britain), but he was certainly not the last. The

events of 9/11/2001 and subsequent operations in Afghanistan have engendered a whole

new catalogue of Great Game-themed publications, usually with a third player added -

China.

At first glance, the metaphor seems appropriate. The Kyrgyz Republic is the only

country in the world to host both U.S. and Russian Federation military bases. Chinese

consumer goods dominate the markets, and Chinese laborers are busily improving old

Soviet roads to facilitate even more exports to the Kyrgyz Republic. Russia dominates

the media and popular culture. Meanwhile, the U.S. struggles to maintain its presence

2 Although commonly referred to as “Kyrgyzstan”, even by many natives, the “Kyrgyz Republic” is its

official name.


and strategic access in the face of strong Russian opposition and active “black media”

designed to undermine U.S. credibility. A three-way Great Game would seem to be well

underway.

And yet, as with most things Kyrgyz, the reality is far more complex, and the Great

Game metaphor is too simplistic. First, the Kyrgyz Republic was not a particularly

sought after prize in the original Great Game, and was a relative latecomer to the

Russian Empire. Furthermore, the Russian/Soviet period is remembered quite fondly in

the contemporary Kyrgyz Republic. While a portion of this emotion is selective

nostalgia for a golden Soviet past that never quite existed, Kyrgyz can point to extensive

Soviet economic development, primarily in the north of the country, investments in

infrastructure and education, subsidies from Moscow, and a certain intangible pride

that came from being a part of a superpower. While contemporary nostalgia

conveniently forgets Soviet repression and deprivations, the Kyrgyz Soviet Socialist

Republic was certainly a net recipient of Soviet largesse.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought independence, but also an end to the

subsidies. Russian, Chinese, and Turkish investment eventually followed, but has yet to

come close to Soviet levels. And in contrast with Soviet aid, contemporary foreign direct

investment in the modern Kyrgyz Republic comes with strings attached. Unlike its

neighbors to the north and west, the newly independent Kyrgyz Republic was not

blessed with substantial oil, gas, or mineral reserves. Since independence, the Republic

has lost not only Soviet guarantees of internal and external security, but much of its

ethnic Slavic population to emigration.

The events of 9/11/2001 thrust the young republic into the geostrategic spotlight for the

first time. The U.S. Air Force established a small base at the Manas International

Airport outside the capital city, to support operations in Afghanistan. Not to be

outdone, the Russian Federation quickly countered with a base of their own, some 30

miles away, ostensibly for “anti-terrorist operations”. When neighboring Uzbekistan

expelled U.S. forces from their territory in 2005, the significance of the U.S. base

increased dramatically. Today, more than 90 percent of all U.S. and coalition forces

serving in Afghanistan transit through the Kyrgyz Republic, as does more than 30

percent of the fuel.

In 2009, after returning from a trip to Moscow, then-President Kurmanbek Bakiyev

announced that the Kyrgyz government would terminate the lease on the U.S. base.

Coincidentally, Russia announced a $2 billion aid package. Ultimately, Bakiyev

renewed the lease after negotiating higher rent payments and increased U.S. aid,

infuriating Moscow in the process, and sowing the seeds of his own demise.


III. People Power and Elections

On December 1, 2011, President Roza Otunbayeva handed the reins to her

democratically-elected successor, marking the first-ever voluntary, peaceful transfer of

political power in post-Soviet Central Asia. Few predicted this outcome 18 months

earlier, when violent revolution and subsequent ethnic fighting brought this small

country to the brink of civil war.

In the 1990s Kyrgyzstan impressed Western observers as the most open and democratic

state to emerge from Soviet Central Asia, in part because of the leadership of physicist-

president Askar Akayev. Akayev turned out to be less democratic than originally

hoped, and was ousted in 2005’s bloodless Tulip Revolution. His successor Bakiyev also

ruled with an increasingly autocratic hand, and was overthrown in a violent revolution

in April 2010. An interim government led by Otunbayeva struggled to stabilize the

country and restore public order. In June, 2010, the southern “capital” Osh erupted in

brutal ethnic violence between Kyrgyz and the minority Uzbeks (who comprise only

15% of the country’s population, but more than 50% in many cities and regions in and

around Osh). The fighting left more than 2000 dead, 300,000 internally displaced, and

large sections of Osh and surrounding cities and villages destroyed or severely

damaged. Soviet forces put down similar unrest in 1990 during a wave of upheaval in

the region, but Russia declined Otunbayeva’s request to send peacekeeping forces in

this instance. Reports indicate that security forces have continued to harass Uzbeks

since the riots.3

Given recent history, the conduct of the October presidential contest was just as

important as the outcome. In 2010 observers praised legislative elections as free and fair,

which generated optimism that 2011 could enhance democracy across the country and

even the region. Indeed, while there were allegations of misconduct regarding voting

lists and access to polling centers, election-related violence appeared to be minimal.

Almazbek Atambayev, a northerner and minister in the Otunbayeva government, won

over 60% of the ballots on a platform calling for internal stability and a pro-Russian

orientation. His greatest support came in the north. Nonetheless, Atambayev's two

primary rivals, both from the south, appeared to favor more aggressive action against

Uzbeks. As a result, some claims of voter fraud came from Uzbeks trying to vote for

3 Michael Schwirtz, "Signs of Official Bias and Abuse Deepen Kyrgyzstan’s Ethnic Rifts,"

New York Times 5 November 2011.


Atambayev.4 A few days after the election, however, defeated candidate Kamchibek

Tashiyev disavowed post-election protest rallies, which cleared the way for Atambayev

to move forward.5

Atambayev's most dramatic announcement after winning the election concerned his

desire to close the U.S. Transit Center by 2014. He has also supported joining the

Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which formed only in 2010. Ideally,

full membership in the union would energize trade with Russia and beyond, especially

if Russia does not try to police illegal narcotics and re-exports moving through the

Kyrgyz Republic from Afghanistan and China.6 The state will also continue to sell off

assets appropriated from family and cronies of ousted President Bakiyev, ranging from

banks and telecoms to a hydroelectric plant.7

IV. Conclusion

While the citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic can take great pride in their unique status as

Central Asia’s freest state and only parliamentary democracy, they still face great

difficulties and the future is far from secure. As this essay illustrates, this republic has

often failed to live up to its promise. Additionally, the dominant mood among Kyrgyz

citizens is not hope or pride, but skepticism and cynicism. There is the sense that this

has all happened before, and everyone knows the outcome. Indeed, all of the

revolutions, elections, and talk of people power can obscure the fact that the country

has been ruled by the same small group of elites since 1991.8 Occasionally someone is

cast out, but their replacement always comes from within the group. As the Kyrgyz

cynically, but accurately joke, “In Kyrgyzstan you don’t lose your job, you just lose your

turn”. Its greatest challenge yet may come in 2014, when the U.S. ends combat

operations in Afghanistan and downgrades the American commitment to Kyrgyzstan.

4 David Trilling, "Mapping Kyrgyzstan’s Regional Divisions, Vote by Vote,"

Eurasianet.org, 5 November 2011; Reuters, "Ethnic Uzbeks Chose 'Another Putin' in

Kyrgyzstan," 31 October 2011. 5 Associated Press, "Kyrgyzstan’s presidential vote loser calls off protest rallies, quelling

fears of new unrest," 4 November 2011. 6 Myles Smith, "Kyrgyzstan: Moscow Offers Customs Union-Lite to Bishkek,"

Eurasianet.org, 7 November 2011. 7 Clare Nuttall, "Kyrgyzstan's Nationalized Companies Are Up For Sale," Business New

Europe, 8 November 2011. 8 Bakiyev was Akayev’s Prime Minister, Atambayev was Bakiyev’s Prime Minister,

Otunbayeva held cabinet positions under both Akayev and Bakiyev. Atambayev’s

primary rivals for President were also former Bakiyev officials.


Figures ranked in order of importance

1. Map

Open Source: CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/index.html) accessed 12 October 2011. Kyrgyzstan is about the size of South

Dakota. For highways and railroads see Kyrgyzstan Political Map from nationsonline.org,

accessed 12 October 2011.


2. Regime Timeline

Year Event

1991 independence after collapse of Soviet Union; physicist Askar

Akayev elected president; government changes name of capital

from Frunze (after Bolshevik Mikhail Frunze) to Bishkek

1991- emigration of ethnic Slavs, Germans, and Jews

1993 new constitution

1995 Akayev re-elected president

2000 Akayev re-elected president

2001 U.S. opens Manas airbase to support operations in Afghanistan

2002 wave of protests against Akayev

2005 Tulip Revolution: Akayev regime succumbs to street

protests after controversial legislative elections; opposition

leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev becomes president

U.S. closes airbase in Uzbekistan, making Manas primary

conduit to and from Afghanistan

2009 Bakiyev re-elected amidst charges of murder, intimidation, fraud

April 2010 Bakiyev regime collapses after deadly protests; Interim

government formed under opposition leader Roza Otunbayeva

May-June 2010 Bloody ethnic violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in southern

cities of Osh and Jalalabad

June 2010 Kyrgyz Voters overwhelmingly approve new Constitution

establishing parliamentary democracy with weak Presidency, also

approve Roza Otunbayeva as interim President until 2011 elections

October 2010 new legislative elections praised by international observers

October 2011 Almazbek Atambayev wins presidential vote on a pro-Russia

platform, says U.S. base will close in 2014

Peter Leonard (Associated Press) "Kyrgyz president-elect wants U.S. air base shut," 1

November 2011; Freedom in the World - Kyrgyzstan (2011) (freedomhouse.org) accessed

14 October 2011; Encyclopædia Britannica Online, "Kyrgyzstan" (britannica.com) accessed

5 October 2011.


3. U.S. Economic and Military Aid per Capita (Historical $)

Source: U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants (http://gbk.eads.usaidallnet.gov/) accessed 4

September 2013.


4. American Cowboy

Author photograph. State History Museum, Bishkek, May 2011.


5. Economic Profile

Population 5,548,042 (rank 112 of 239 states)

GDP per capita $2,400 (185 of 229)

GDP real growth -0.9% (196 of 220)

Unemployment 9% (99 of 202)

Below Poverty Line 34%

Exports $2 billion (142 of 222)

Exported Commodities gold, cotton, wool, garments, meat, tobacco

Imports $5 billion (130 of 223)

Imported Commodities oil, gas, machinery, equipment, chemicals

Trade Partners Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan

Corruption Perceptions Index 24 (154 of 174)

Economic Freedom Index 60 (89 of 177)

Human Development Index .622 (125 of 186)

Sources: CIA World Factbook; Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom

(heritage.org/index/Ranking); Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index

(transparency.org); United Nations Human Development Index

(http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2013/). All accessed 4 September 2013.

political risk: kyrgyzstan (with colonel ted donnelly, 2013)

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