Immunity of the Nile has stripped, İt's Hydropolitics has changed.

29 April 2014

The balance of power over the Nile has changed. Such a change will firstly change the status quo over the Nile Basin in a controlled fashion. Then, the resultant new paradigm will become efficient over the other rivers of Africa. We will clearly see the case within the upcoming 10 years.

Egypt envisaged the approaching threat and initiated “New Hydropolitics” about the waters of the Nile in the 6th World Water Forum held in Marseille in 2012 but was not able to reachthe desired goals.The envisaged outcomes were started to be observed in 2013. Ethiopia diverted the water of Blue Nile on 29 May 2013 to construct a dam. The dam construction has reached about 30% progress today. So, immunity of the Nile has stripped.It's Hydropolitics has changed.

The International Experts Committee investigating the construction of Nahda Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia over the Nile

provided their preliminary technical report at the end of last May. Ethiopia has commented the report positively.This report and subsequent statements annoyed Egypt. All these developmentswere taken into consideration by Egypt in a meeting held on 3 June 2013. The meeting was chaired by the President Mursi and the subsequent statements and “radical recommendations made in this meeting” have emerged a new agenda.However, later on overthrow of Mursi Government and social upheavals in Egypt have moved the issues behind the agenda. Recently, Nabil Zaki, the spokesman of Tagammu Party of Egypt, has made a statement and indicated that construction of dam has reached to 30% progress and created a threat for the security Egypt. He declared that they will fight against this issue. Previously, the President Mursi has already indicated the construction of the dam as a threat to security of Egypt and expressed that this was a project with Israel behind. It was desired that project should be terminated and possible negativeimpacts should be investigated in a broader sense. Some radicalmeasures were mentioned and spoken. But, nothing was achieved. Government has changed. Egypt has jumbled. Construction of the dam on the other hand is still going on.

80-years Hegemony of Egypt has ended.

With an agreement signed in 1929 and renewed in 1959, Egypt used to have 87% sole possession over the Nile waters for over 80 years. Under the conditions of cold war period, Egypt

expressed that any interventions to The Nile waters would be accepted as a direct cause of war and such an expression was highly effective during the relevant period. The other countries over the main basin of the Nile (The Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda) were preventedfrom this water which was highly significant forthem. During that period, the USSR and the USA tried to be effective over the hydropolitics of the Nile basin..

During the last 5 years, a movement was observed among the other counties over the Nile basin for the river. In the year 2010, the Nile basin countries signed an agreement declaring that they didn’t recognize the hegemony of Egypt over the Nile any more. Egypt immediately announced the denial of this agreement. Then, the dynamism over the Nile has accelerated. Right after that, Ethiopia announced the Nahda Dam project in the year 2011 and laid the foundations of the dam in the same year.

Following all these developments, Egypt has brought voluminously the issue of use of the Nile waters into the agenda of World Water Forum of the year 2012. However, the arguments brought the Egypt did not gain much recognition.

Considering the significance of the Nile waters for the other countries of the basin, it is not surprising to have dynamism in “this period”. Jumbles currently going on in Egypt encouraged the steps to be taken in this issue. It is totally impossible to imply that the decision for the construction of the dam was not the sole decision of Ethiopia. Persistence of jumbles in Egypt provides more comfortable ambient for the progress of the construction.

The cost of the dam is estimated to be 4,3billion dollars and China will provide 1,5 billion of this cost. China has constructed 7 large and small dams over the Nile basin. Two of them are Nezhi and Tekeze dams of Ethiopia.

This time, Italy and Israel are also supporting this new project. About 30% of the project has already been completed and with the completion of the project Ethiopia is planning to sell electricity to all neighboring countries including Egypt.

Irrigation phase of the dam is not coming to forefront much now.

Uneven Contribution and Using Hegemony

With regard to current storage of the Nile waters, Egypt has the largest share. Some of the renewable water resources of allcountries located in the Nile basin, except for Ethiopia, Burundi and Ruanda, comes from outside the countries.

While the White Nile branch is providing the base flow, the Blue Nile and Atbara Rivers brings the flood flows.

About 59% of total flow of the Nile comes from the Blue Nile. During the floods, 68% is brought by the Blue Nile.In this case, the NahdaRenaissance Dam over the Blue Nile will largely regulate these flood flows.

Since the dam is constructed for hydroelectricity power generation, the water used in power generation in turbines willbe released to river bed again. In that case, water release to downstream sections will decrease only during the fill-up of the dam reservoir.Beside this, evaporation losses are evident from the consequent reservoir surface.

However, location of this dam over the basin brings the large portion of the Nile waters and large storage capacity worry Egypt. It creates a worry about less water release to downstream portions by holding the water in reservoir during the dry periods.

This dam is also supported by the Sudan and it will definitely enlarge the influence field of Ethiopia in Africa. Such developments will also allow global powers to play a role in hydropolitics of the Nile over Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has already captured this conjuncture. In a meeting held in January 2014 among the representatives of Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia about the Nahda Dam, Ethiopia rejected the offer of Egypt (“Lets operate this dam together”) for the operation of this dam. Ethiopia Water Resources Minister, Alemayehu Tegenu, made a statement after the meeting and indicated the statements of “Egypt does not have sufficient information about this dam. Therefore they worry about it. Actually, there is nothing to worry about. Water will be used for hydroelectric power generation and be released to downstream portions.

With the completion of the dam construction, Ethiopia will havean advantage of 60 billion m3water storage. Ethiopianexperts assert that such storage will also regulate the downstream

flows. This is true since the flood flows of the Nile come fromthis branch of the Nile.

This is highly significant since it is a huge intervention to the Nile and will definitely strengthen the hand of Ethiopiahydro politically. However, considering the great dependence of Egypt to the Nile, Ethiopia does not have a chance to use this hydropolitics power as a threat risk to Egypt.

Hydropolitics of the Nile changes along with the new water and energy geopolitics of the 21st century. These changes allowed Ethiopia and neighboring countries to bringing various advantages to them.

Have the hydropolitics of the Nile changed?

In the year 2010, the agreement in which the countries of the Nile Basin is asserting their rights over the Nile, became a milestone. Significance of this agreement perceived better following the Arab Spring. Ethiopia de-archived the planning already made by the USA. The dam was designed in 2010. Right

after that, tender was performed forthe construction in 2011 and preparations forthe construction have initiated.

The USA approached the dam project conservatively at the beginning and call Egypt and Ethiopia for cooperation about theminimization of the impacts of this dam over Nile Basin.In the very last statement of the USA, it was stated that the Blue Nile should be used forthe benefit of entire countries of the region and cooperation should be made to minimize the potentialnegative impacts.

Last year, NahdaResistance Dam was brought in front of the Egyptian Muslim Brothers who took the power after Muberak whichwas not trusted much by the USA and Western World, together with Israel. However, this card was not used. The political power changed the hand in Egypt. The new Egyptian government seems to be more reconciliatory in these issues.

However, from now on, whoever has the power; Egypt will not have sufficient support against Ethiopia as it was in the past.This dam will ultimately be completed. And, rather than whetheror not to construct dams over the Nile, the best equal use or benefit of the Nile waters will be argued among the basin countries. In other words, the Nile waters will be opened for the use of other countries and the problem will be transferred to another dimension.

Africa attracted the attentions of global powers in the 21st century. And, such an attention is still increasing. Almost a century-old hegemony of Egypt over the Nile, inherited from thecold war periods, will not continue in this “New Paradigm, New Africa” period.

Increasing population, poverty and stressin Africa has made thecontinent the geography of the 21st century over which the bestattention to be paid. The poorest and the nearest region to themodern and developed western world is Africa. Such a case increased the threat of migration from this geography to the western world. All these developments at the beginning of the 21st century have brought forward the needs of Ethiopia and theSudan for this dam rather than the negative impacts of this damover Egypt.

Along the new water and energy geopolitics of the 21st century,the hydropolitics of the Nile has also changed. Power balance over the Nile has also changed.

Nahda – Renaissance Dam was the most significant step to changethe hydropolitics of the Nile. With this dam, waters of the Nile will enter into the order and service of riparian countries and the hydropolitics of the Nile will enter into theorder of global policy. With this step, waters of the Nile willflow to poor African countries in one hand and will create the most significant resource for the global policies to be implemented over this continent on the other hand. We all will see a new water management in Africa with this new paradigm of the 21st century.