Is Thai Democracy Finished?

Giles Ji UngpakornFormer Associate Professor of

Politics, Chulalongkorn University.In exile in UK.

Yes, if they have their way

Civil Court says anti-government protests “exercising democratic right to peaceful

protest”

Killing Democracy 1973-2014

Pua Thai continues tradition of impunity for state murderers

One day before the election,violence with impunity

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjSMZhQHmzM

Advanced voting day

Marxist analysis

• Big picture analysis: Thai history did not start with Taksin’s election victory in 2001.

• History and events not merely about the elites.

Those against democracy• The Democrat Party• The Military• The Middle Class• The Constitutional Court• Top civil servants• The vice-chancellors• The NGOs• Sections of the Electoral Commission• Human Rights Commission

Those for democracy• Red Shirts• White Shirts• Nitirat Group• Assembly for Defence of Democracy• Socialists

• Muslim Malay separatists

• ? Taksin, Yingluk Pua Thai ?

Roots of the present crisis

• 1996 Economic Crisis of free-market neoliberalism exposes weakness of Thai economy and deep inequality // Arab Spring.

• Taksin’s TRT reaches out to millions of poor workers and farmers + modernisation programme involving “dual-track” policies.

• TRT’s massive electoral support undermines old way of conducting politics.

Challenges to Old Order

• Democrats tell unemployed to go back to villages, use millions to save middle class savings.

• TRT says “we will help everyone, not just the rich”

New way of conducting politics

• Concrete policies to win hearts and minds Vs

• Vote buying and Patronage

Crisis Not About• Rural vs Bangkok Class Bangkok evenly split Bangkok has a massive working class• Succession, “network monarchy” Taksin is a royalist King is weak and cowardly, a tool of the military All elites see Crown Prince as next king

Two dimensional struggle

• “Parallel war” against the conservative elites.• “dialectic” relationship between red shirts and

Taksin.

Who lost out?

• Military• Democrat Party• Unelected elites, judges, civil servants• NGOs

Urgent basic reforms (1)

Welfare State , Super Tax, address inequalityThailand has 3 billionaires among the world’s richest 85 people. • King Pumipon, 8th richest man in the world with

$44.24B• Dhanin Chearavanont, 58th richest man in the

world with $12.6 B• Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, 82nd richest man in

the world with $10.6B

Urgent basic reforms (2)

Freedom of speechAbolition of lèse majesté , computer crimes law

& contemp of court law

Urgent basic reforms (3)

Abolition of “Independent Bodies”• Constitutional Court• Half appointed senate• Election Commission• National Human Rights Commission• TDRILiberal anti-democratictheory

Urgent basic reforms (4)

Reduce the influence of the military

Urgent basic reforms (5)

Establish standards of Human Rights• End impunity for state murderers• Bring coup leaders to justice

Sutep’s “reforms”

Corruption?

• Corruption cannot be abolished by corrupt elites.

• Corruption cannot be legislated away.• Corruption can only be tackled by expanding

democracy.• But Sutep, the middle class & elites say

“democracy is corrupt”.

Why Yingluk seems so weak• More afraid of mass movement for democracy than elite

rivals – see amnesty bill, use of lèse majesté.• Wants to protect the old order.• “Permanent Revolution” in Thai context means no illusions

in Pua Thai // Egypt.

The alternative