foresight process and fundamentals - prospectiva-alc
TRANSCRIPT
ForesightProcessandFundamentals
Dr. Rafael Popper Principal Scientist in Business, Innovation and Foresight
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland [email protected]
• TounderstandtheForesightProcess• Describingkeyphasesandelementsoftheprocess
• TounderstandtheFundamentalsofForesight• Discussingfundamentalprinciples
• Discussingfundamentalmeta-principles
• TolinkForesighttothepolicy/strategycycle• Throughexploring(policy/strategyformula>on)
• Throughshaping(policy/strategyimplementa>on)
• Throughlearning(policy/strategyevalua>on)
Contents
ForesightisaSMARTprocess
ForesightisaSMARTprocess
Foresightisasystema>c,par9cipatory,prospec9veandpolicy-orientedprocesswhich,withthesupportofenvironmental/horizonscanningapproaches,isaimedtoac>velyengagekeystakeholdersintoawiderangeofac>vi>esan,cipa,ng,recommendingandtransforming(ART)technological,economic,environmental,poli>cal,socialandethical(TEEPSE)futures.
ScopingFutures
(Pre-foresight)
MobilisingFutures
(Recruitment)
An>cipa>ngFutures(Genera>on)
RecommendingFutures(Ac>on)
TransformingFutures(Renewal)
Phase1:Scoping
Scopingisthestar>ngpointoftheprocess,whereprac>>oners,togetherwiththesponsor:definethegeneralandspecificobjec>ves;assembletheprojectteam;anddesignthemethodology.
Aimsandobjec>ves
Ra>onalesandbackground
Contextanddomaincoverage
Methodologyandworkplan
Territorialscope
Timehorizon(s) Fundinganddura>on
Scoping(Pre-foresight)
Mobilising(Recruitment)
An>cipa>ng(Genera>on)
Recommending(Ac>on)
Transforming(Renewal)
Aimsandobjec9ves
Commonaims• shapingcapaci>esandskills• shapingstrategiesandpriori>es• shapingparadigmsandcurrentvisions• shapingsocio-economicandSTIsystems• shapingbehaviour,aPtudesandlifestyles• shapingknowledge-basedproducts&services
Commonfeaturesofobjec>ves• specific(clear)• measurable(quan>fiableoutputs)• achievable(aSainablebythestudy)• relevant(relatedtotheaim)• >me-bounded(relatedtoadeadline)
Phase 1: Scoping
aims & objectives
Ra9onalesandbackground
Understandingthebackgroundrequires:• recognisingkeyevents,i.e.technological,economic,environmental,poli>cal,social,ethicalissues;and
• mapping‘state-of-the-art’knowledgefromacademic/greyliterature,databases,etc.)andrelevantini>a>ves(e.g.researchprogrammes,agendas,networks,expertgroups,etc.)
Phase 1: Scoping
rationales & background
Context&domaincoverage
Commoncontexts:• Interna>onalforesight• Na>onalforesightaSachedtoaprogramme• Na>onalforesightdetachedfromaprogramme• Sub-na>onalforesight• Corporateforesight• Structuralforesight
Commondomaincoverage:
Phase 1: Scoping
context & domain coverage
Methodology&workplan
Keymethodologyfeatures• Crea>vity–Exploratorymethods• Interac>on–Par>cipatorymethods• Evidence–Explanatorymethods• Exper>se–Advisorymethods
Phase 1: Scoping
methodology & work plan
Territorialscope
Mostcommonterritorialscopes• Na>onal• Supra-na>onal• Sub-na>onal
30
9
16
250
43
53
148
94
658
2
23
16
297
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Oceania
Asia
NorthAmerica
La>nAmerica
Europe
Supra-na>onal Na>onal Sub-na>onal
Phase 1: Scoping
territorial scope
Timehorizon(s)
Common>mehorizon(s)• Upto10years• 10-20years• 20-30years• 30-50years• 50+years
Phase 1: Scoping
time horizon(s)
0%
50%
100%
Northwest Europe
Souththern Europe
Eastern Europe
South America
CTFP
Time horizon
up to 10 years
10 to 20 years
20 to 30 years
30 to 50 years
over 50 years
Funding&dura9on Phase 1: Scoping
funding & duration
4%14% 13%
90%
33%
57%
25%
10%
30%
14%63%
33%14%
0%
50%
100%
NorthwestEurope
SouththernEurope
EasternEurope
SouthAmerica
>500k
200-500k
50-200k
<50k
10%
52%50% 54%
29%
50%
41%
10%
50% 50%
5%
0%
50%
100%
NorthwestEurope
SouththernEurope
EasternEurope
SouthAmerica
>2years
1-2years
6-12months
<6months
Phase2:Mobilising
MobilisingisrepresentedasthesecondphaseofForesight.However,someac7vi7esaresimultaneouslyini7atedwiththescopingphase,suchascontractnego7a7onswiththesponsorordefini7onoftheprojectteam;whileothersrunthroughoutthelifeoftheproject(e.g.engagingtargetgroups).
Sponsorsandchampions
RTDandsupportteams
Methodologyanddomainexperts
Coopera>onandnetworking
Par>cipa>onscale
TargetgroupsPublicRela>ons(engagement)andmarke>ng
Scoping(Pre-foresight)
Mobilising(Recruitment)
An>cipa>ng(Genera>on)
Recommending(Ac>on)
Transforming(Renewal)
Sponsors&champions Phase 2: Mobilising
sponsors & champions
Commonsponsors• Government• Research• Business• IGOs(e.g.EU,UNbodies,OECD)
Commonchampions• Governmentofficial• Renownprofessor• Influen>alentrepreneur• HeadofunitinanIGO
Research&supportteam Phase 2: Mobilising
research & support team
Commonac>vi>esoftheteam• Research
• Principalinves>gator• Seniorresearchers• Researchscien>sts
• Technologydevelopment• Webtoolsmanagers
• Managementandothersupport• Projectadministra>on• Travelsupport• Eventsorganisa>on• Logis>cs
Methodology&domainexperts Phase 2: Mobilising
methodology & domain experts
Keyrolesofmethodologyexperts• Capacitybuilding&coaching• Processdesign&valida>on• Methodologyimplementa>on&supervision
CommondomainexpertsA. NaturalsciencesB. EngineeringandtechnologyC. MedicalsciencesD. AgriculturalsciencesE. SocialsciencesF. Humani>es
Coopera9on&networking Phase 2: Mobilising
cooperation & networking
Commontypesofcoopera>on&networking• betweenregions• betweencountries• betweenorganisa>ons
Analysisofforesightcoopera>onandnetworkingbetweencountriesin1000+cases:
Par9cipa9onscale Phase 2: Mobilising
participation scale
Abroadpar>cipa>oncouldfacilitate:• accesstoabroaderknowledgebase;• beSerunderstandingofdifferent
perspec>ves;• greaterawarenessofknowledgesources;• increasedunderstandingofthescopeand
limita>onsofForesightac>vi>es;• greaterlegi>macyoftheworkandresults;• improvedcapabili>estouseandtakeforward
sharedvisionsonpossibleanddesiredfutures.
0%
50%
100%
Northwest Europe
Souththern Europe
Eastern Europe
South America
CTFP
Scale of Participation
< 50
51-200
201-500
> 500
Targetgroups Phase 2: Mobilising
target groups
0%
50%
100%
Northwest Europe
Souththern Europe
Eastern Europe
South America
CTFP
Target audiences
Govt Agencies / Depts
Research Community
Firms
Trade Bodies / Industrial Federations
Other target audiences
NGOs
Intermediary organizations
Trades Unions
Commontargetgroups• Governmentagencies&departments• Researchandeduca>onorganisa>ons• FirmsandPrivateorganisa>ons• Non-StateActors,e.g.EU,UNIDO,UNESCO• Non-governmentalorganisa>ons(NGO)• Media• Civilsociety• Tradeunions
PR&marke9ng Phase 2: Mobilising
public relations & marketing
Communica>on&dissemina>ontools• online
• websites/blogs/web-discussions• emails/electronicnewsleSers• web-videos/podcasts• tutorials/apps
• offline• policy/researchbriefs• television/radio/presspromo>on• conferences/seminars/symposia• newsleSers/flyers/leaflets/brochures
Phase3:An9cipa9ng
An,cipa,nginvolvesgenera7ngthe‘formaloutputs’oftheprocess.Thean7cipatoryintelligencedevelopedinthisphaseoCenreflectsdifferentelementsofthepresentsitua7onandfuturecon7ngenciesbycombiningOutward-looking,Inward-lookingandForward-lookingapproaches.
Scoping(Pre-foresight)
Mobilising(Recruitment)
An>cipa>ng(Genera>on)
Recommending(Ac>on)
Transforming(Renewal)
Visions,scenarios
andforecasts
Keyandemerging
technologies
TEEPSEdrivers,trendsandmegatrends
SWOTandGrand
Challenges
WildCardsandWeakSignals
Pathwaysandroadmaps
Modelsandframeworks
Visions,scenarios&forecasts Phase 3: Anticipating
visions, scenarios & forecasts
Keyfeaturesvisionsandscenarios• exploratory• norma>ve
Keyfeaturesofforecasts• Qualita>ve• Quan>ta>ve• Semi-quan>ta>ve
2x2 Archetype Success
Key&emergingtechnologies Phase 3: Anticipating
key & emerging technologies
Featuresofkey/emergingtechnologies• regional/na>onal/sectoralrelevance• key/emergingduetocontribu>onto:
• qualityoflife• compe>>veness• wealthcrea>on• influenceonothertechnologies
SWOT&grandchallenges Phase 3: Anticipating
SWOT & Grand Challenges
KeyfeaturesSWOTanalysis• Inward-looking• Outward-looking• Forward-lookingKeyfeaturesofgrandchallenges• Top-down• BoSom-up
Sstrengths
Oopportuni9es
Wweakness
Tthreats
TEEPSESdrivers&mega/trends Phase 3: Anticipating
TEEPSE drivers & mega/trends
KeydimensionsofTEEPSEanalysis• Technological• Economic• Environmental• Poli>cal• Social• Ethical• Spa>al
Barriers
Threats
Opportuni>es
Drivers
Tec Eco Env Pol Soc Eth SpaTEEPSESapproach
crea9vity
evidence
interac9on
expe
r9se
Mul>pleknowledgesources
Wildcards&weaksignals Phase 3: Anticipating
wild cards & weak signals
Keyfeaturesofwildcards• Nature-related• Unplanned• PlannedKeyfeaturesofweaksignals• Interpreta>onuncertainty• Importanceuncertainty• Implica>onuncertainty
Models&frameworks Phase 3: Anticipating
models & frameworks
Commontypesofmodels/frameworks• Qualita>vevs.quan>ta>veKeyfeaturesofmodels/frameworks• Conceptual/methodological/analy>cal
Pathways&roadmaps Phase 3: Anticipating
pathways & roadmaps
Commontypesofpathways/roadmaps• mul>-layer&mul>-aspect• linkedtocri>calissues
CONTEXTdimension
Momentum
Layers&Dimensions KeyAspects
PEOPLEdimension
Ap9tude
PROCESSdimension
Catalysts
IMPACTdimension
Transforma9on
AWtude
Fosterers
Sustainability
Foresight Resources Mobilisa9on
Phase4:Recommending
Recommendingshouldbeconsideredacri7calphaseoftheprocess.Evenwhererecommenda7onsarenotexplicitlystatedin‘formaloutputs’(e.g.reports),oCentheycanbedetectedimplicitlyintheformof,forexample,successornorma7vescenarios.
Scoping(Pre-foresight)
Mobilising(Recruitment)
An>cipa>ng(Genera>on)
Recommending(Ac>on)
Transforming(Renewal)
Policiesandac>ons
Ini>a>vesandactors
Appropria>onand
dissemina>onInvestmentsand
training
Alliancesandsynergies
Furtherresearch
Pathways&roadmaps Phase 4: Recommending
Commontypesofrecommenda>ons• policiesandac>ons• ini>a>vesandactors• appropria>onanddissemina>on• investmentsandtraining• alliancesandsynergies• (Foresight&HorizonScanning)research
Natureoftherecommendingphase• Moreorlessexploratory• Moreorlesscomplex
Phase5:Transforming
Transforminginvolvesconstantmonitoringandevalua7oninordertoassesswhethertheforesightprocesshashelpedtoachieveitsoriginalobjec7vesandhowfarresultsarebeingactedon.Onemainchallengehereisthedevelopmentofsuccessindicatorstoassessforesightrelatedimpactsandtransforma7ons.
Scoping(Pre-foresight)
Mobilising(Recruitment)
An>cipa>ng(Genera>on)
Recommending(Ac>on)
Transforming(Renewal)
Capaci>esandskills
Priori>esandstrategies
Paradigmsandcurrentvisions
Knowledge-based
productsandservices
Socio-economicand
STIsystems
Behaviour,aPtudesandlifestyles
Pathways&roadmaps Phase 5: Transforming
Keyareasoftransforma>ons• capaci>esandskills• priori>esandstrategies• paradigmsandcurrentvisions• socio-economicandSTIsystems• behaviour,aPtudesandlifestyles• knowledge-basedproductsandservices
Environmental system
Multi-systemic transformations
Societal system
Economic system
Infrastructure system
Government system
FromSMARTFutures
ToSMARTERFutures• Scoping
• Mobilising
• An>cipa>ng• Recommending
• Transforming• Evalua>ng
• Renewing
1 2
3 4 5
Conclusions Conclusions
Principleoffuture-orienta9on
Principleofpar9cipa9on
Principleofevidence
Principleofmul9disciplinarity
Principleofcoordina9on
Principleofac9onorienta9onSource:Keenan,M.andPopper,R.(2007)
References
• Popper,R.andTeichler,T.(2011),Prac>calGuidetoMappingForward-LookingPrac>ces,PlayersandOutcomes,1stReportpreparedfortheEuropeanForesightPlatorm(EFP),UniversityofManchester.
• Georghiou,L.,CassingenaH.,J.,Keenan,M.,Miles,I.,andPopper,R.,editors,(2011),ManualdeProspec>vaTecnológica:ConceptosyPrác>ca,Mexico:La>nAmericanFacultyofSocialScience(FLACSO).[ThisisaSpanishversionofTheHandbookofTechnologyForesight,andIplayedamajorroleastechnicaleditorofthisversion]
• Georghiou,L.,CassingenaH.,J.,Keenan,M.,Miles,I.,andPopper,R.(2008),editors,TheHandbookofTechnologyForesight:ConceptsandPrac>ce,EdwardElgar,Cheltenham.
• Keenan,M.andPopper,R.(2007),ResearchInfrastructuresForesight.Aprac>calguideforpolicymakersandmanagersofexis>ng(andfuture)researchinfrastructures(RIs),ForeIntegra,Brussels:EuropeanCommission,35pp.
