deregulation gone awry: moral hazard in the savings and loan industry
TRANSCRIPT
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TH,BLE rUNrvenrerp Srnrlsrrcs ron VenrenrEs UsED To ExpLArN
rHB Pnorenrt,rry oF Ea.rrune AND THE Cosr or LreurpRrrou r.on THnrr.rs
rTr
.JttF
9J
Variable
All FHLB DistrictsAll FHLB Districts
Except District Nine
AX
Thrifts
Failing
Thrifts
Sur-
viving
Tfuifts /-stata
All
Thrifts
Failing
Thrifts
Sur-viving
Thrifts t-stata
6 z r
o .345
r28
o.643
o.o24
o.oor-o.oo2
r , 6 5 4
o .6 t7
o.05 5
o.o04-o.oo4
- 7 . 1 1
- ro,o2
-3.79
2 . 2 r
r ,9o4
o.6ryo.04g
o.oo3-o.oo4
s6+o . 2 r 7
89
o.663
o.o22
o.ooo6
-o.oo36
I '540
o .6 r5
o.05 5o.oo4r
-o.oo3 8
3-94- Z.6z-3.7r
o ' r 7
Total Assets (sm)
Federal Mutual Charter
Federal Stock Charter
State Mutual Charter
State Stock Charter
Tixas
Tixas State Charter
Florida
Florida State Charter
California
Calif. State Charter
Publicly Tiaded
FHLB Ninth District
Membership
174
o.48o
o.oz6
o.309
o . r 8 5
o.og7
o.o8o
o.o27
o.oo7
o.o48
o.o29
o.or6
o . r63
224
o.3 85
o.045
o . r 3 8
o.432
o.304
o .259
o.o3 9
o.or 6
o.o69
o.o47
o.o23
4.4r4
r 5 5
o .5 r6
o.or 9
o .372
o.og3
o .o r9
o .o r2
o.o23
o.o04
o.04 r
o.o22
o.or4
o.o69
2.67
- 5.69
2'94- r z .8o
r6.o5
r5.2r
r j .88
r-83
2.37
2.55
2.63
r .30
r 6.6j
290
o . 5 r 9
o.oz6
o.334
O . I 2 I
o.033
o.oo8
o.o5 8
o.o3 5
o.or7
5r4o.492
o.06o
o . r 5 r
o.297
o.o66
o.o27
o . r r 8
o.o80
o.033
2 3 7
o .526
o.or 8
o .377
o'o79
o.o25
o.oo4
o.o44
o.o24
o.or4
3 .o r
I . I 7
3-26- ro.o3
8.zt
3.o3
2.70
4'2 r
3 .78
r .97
It
trt
--
z
ztt
{
Notes: aApproximate /-statistic for significance of difFerence of means berween faiJing and surviving thrifts.bProportion of total liabilities as of December jr, 1985. cStructural characteristics as of December 3r, r9gz.dProportion of total assets as of December 3 r, 1985.
vv 3t.q5. -tBl
o\
TABLE r (contd.)
UNtventnre SrRtIsrIcs ron VaRrenles UsBo ro ExplntN
rne Pnonnsrt.lTy oF FnIlunB AND THE Cosr or LrQuIoRrton ron Tsnlrrs
Variable
AIIFHLB Districts
All FHLB Districts
Except District Nine
AX
Tkifts
Failing
Thrifts
Sur-vlung
Thrifts t-stata
All
Thrifts
Failing
Thrifts
Sur-
viving
Thrifts /-stata
Behaaioral
Variables
Single-Family Mortg"gesb
Multifamily Mortgagesb
Nonresidential Mortgageso
Land Loanso
Mortgage-Backed Securitiesb
Commercial Loansb
Consumer Loansb
Real Estate Ownedb
o.5 z8
o.o47
o.o8o
o.oz6
o.o64
o.oro
o.043
o.or o
o .395
. o.o72
o.r32
o.o74
o.o5 5
o.o20
o.o55
o.oz6
o.5 78o.o37
o.06 r
o.oo8
o.o67
o.006
o.o3 8
o.oo4
- 24.73
ro;6
r 7.23
14.13
-3.34
9.27
6.zg
I 2 . I I
v . ) ) z
o.044
o.o73
o.or 3
o.o68
o.oo7
o.o3 8
o.oo7
o.435
o.o68
o . r25
o.o3 8
o.o69
o.or 6
s.o4T
o.o22
o.5 8o
o.o3 8
o.06o
o.oo8
o.o68
o.oo5
o.o36
o.oo4
- t6.6r
7'40
r 2J9
8.or
o.24
7.98
3.52
9.67
o
.l
FU)
Real Estate Investmentso
Service Corp. Investmentso
Equity Securitieso
Junk Bondsb
Goodwillb
Delinquent Loansb
Foreclosuresb
Tangible Net Worthb
Expense-Preference ltemsb
Total Deposits'
Retail Deposits'
Wholesale Deposits'
Brokered Deposits'
Repurchase Agreements"
Liabiliry-Growth Rate,
r983-85
o.oo4
o.oo8
o.ooo4
o"ooo7
o.oo6
o,oz6
O . O I I
o.o32
o.or 4
o.933
o.865
o.o6 5
o.or 3
o.oo7
o . r8o
O . O I I
o.o20
o.ooo6
o.oo r 3
o.or 5
o.o5 I
o.o27
-o.o24
o.or 5
o .888
o'79r
o'o95
o.o3 r
o.or 2
o.334
o.ooI
o.oo4
o.ooo4
o.ooo5
o.oo2
o.or 6
o.oo5
o.o5 2
o.or 3
o .950
o.893
o'o54
o.oo5
o.oo6
o.r23
7.o2
8.+6o'7 2
r .8z
r o.97
r z.8j
ro.8o
23.03
5"87- r4.2o
- t6.92
ro.45
g-o2
3 '77
ro.r3
o.oo3
o.oo6
o.ooo5
o.ooo7
o.oo4
o.o22
o.oo7
o.o36
o.or 3
o.93 5
o '87 5
o.o5 8
o.or o
o.oo7
U . I ) J
o.o09
o.or7
o.ooo7
o.oor 2
o .o r6
o.o48
o.or 9-o.o32
o .o I5
o '87 5
o '894
o.o8o
o.o3 r
o.oI4
o .z8z
o.oor
o.oo4
o.ooo4
o.ooo6
o.oo2
o.or 6
o.oo4
o.o5 2
o.or 3
o.950
o.793
o.o52
o.oo5
o.oo6
o.r23
4.59
5.79
o.8o
r .4r
7-98ro.56
786- r8.46
4.50- 13-r5
- r3.64
6.s66.47
3.89
5.43
F
t.t!
z
zrt
{F
Mres: "Approximate t-statistic for significance of difference of means between failing and surviving thrifts' bProportion
of tot.l "rr.t,
as of December 3 r, r985. cProponion of total liabilities as of December 3 r, r985 '
t: \a
o.
p gt . ia. , :F
TABLE zEsrtueres oF THE DpT enprrunnrs oF THE pnosRstr.r'rv or Tsnrrr Fntrune"
Constant
S truc tural ltariabtes,
Risk-Weighted Assetsd
Tangible Net Worthd
Net Interest Margin
State-Stock Charter
State-Murud Charter
Federal-Stock Charter
Tixas
-o.o3 5( - ' . 8 1 )
- r . 8 3 2
ers.t+)
FIML Probitb
- r ' 7 7 4( - z s . t s )
-o.234
( - z . r r )
o.67o
G'zt). . 1 )
/
( - r z . r 5 )- r . 2 r 4( - ' . s 8 )
o.27o(g.28)
-o.05 r(- z.8s)
o.279(s . t t )o . 3 r r
G.zs)
-o .o rg
( -o . r8 )
o.or g
-r .767
( -s .8 r )- 3 . r 7 r
\ + . J J , /
o . ro6
fu.s6)-o.oz8
( t . 7 t )
o . r 57G.z+)o.3 r6(s-r r)
- 2 .878(-6.o: )
2.68o
$.++)-7 '54r
(- ro. r 9)- s.6l s?r . l s )
o . g r g(8.2t )
- o.z 8o(- : . : ' )
o .899
G.ss)o .86 r
3.++)
- 2 . 5 r 4( -+. r s8)
o.457
@.26)-8 . ssg(-8.2s)
- rg .320
(-+.6o)
o.405(t.o: )
- o . r 8 6(- r.s+)
o .6 r3(z.z s)o.943(: .28)
- z .6o r
( -6.62)
- . J . )
(6.2+)
- 5 . 3 9 5( - r z .3z )
- 4 .566(- t .s+)
r . o r 7( r r . 4 r )
-o '054
Gr.rl)o.77 r(+. to)
o.765(s.8+)
- r ' 704
Grs.y)
-8.726
(- ro.4o)
- r9.343
Fs.n)o467(: .o8)
-o. r78
G'. t+)o.5 2o
Q.so)r . o r 8(+.8+)
o
E]
tlt
- o . I I 9
( - ' ' 8s )-o.o72
( - t . :+ )
o.03o
(o .+ t )
o.oo5
(o.r r)
o.o8 r(o .82)
o.oo4
(o.6o)
- o . r 3 8
( - r . r+ )
o.og7
o . r94(o.zo)
o.o5 6(o.rs)o.706(z. tg)
^ . r e
( ' .s+)o.44r( r . r i )
o.o47( t . s : )
-o.646
( - z .s+)
o. r04
(o.lr)-o .265
( - t . os )
o.or 5(o.o+)
-o.or7
- o . r 3 3
(-o. tg)
o.045( t . t g )
-o.777
?r . to)o'344
e
o . z r 8( r . 86 )
o . r 7 2( r . l z )
o.o27
(o.s+)o.o24
(o . r6 )
o'764
-o .686
( - z .6 t )
" . ) ) /
Texas State Charter
California
Calif. State Charter
Florida
Florida State Charter
Size (Log of Assets)
Publicly Tiaded Stock
FHLB Ninth District
Membershi
- o.03 3(-o.+s)
o.o20
(".r+)o . r 9 5(r.so)o.o8 z( t .so)
o . r 89
G"t+)o.oo8
( r . t t )
- o . r 8 8
?r" lg)o . r 8 5
-l.
I-
z
z
{
.s4) . 1 6 \ ) . ^ +( c lz.+
Noras: ̂Estimates of the probability of failure during r 9g6-r989. For each variable, the first row presents the parameter estimate and the second
row presents its t-statistic. onVn probit results are estimated jointlv with tn'IliT::::-"1,T:^t::'.":T,i:"i:: ffi::'illXli:;firow Pfcsclr ts
l l ! r -rr4Lrr!rL '
costs as a proportion of year-end rgal total liabilities, ,rsing a *riation of the samfle-selection-bias correction suggested by Heckman (r979)'
cStructuralcharacterist icsasofDecember3r,rggz.dproport iorrof totalassetsasof December 3t,r98z' tVariableswith2-valuesgreater
than o.zo in the single-equation probit results have been deleted to facilitate convergence ofthis procedure'
ip 9i !8. iAt
TABLE z (contd.)Esuvreres oF THE DBrpnl,rrNnNTs oF THE Pnoansrrrry or Tnnrnr FerruRB"
FIML Probid
Variable
BebaaioralVariables
Multifamily Mortgages'
Nonresidential Mortgages'
Land Loans'
Commercial Loansc
Consumer Loans'
Real Estate Investmentsc
Service Corp. Investments'
o.479(r.6o)r .368
(r z.o8)
r .453(tz.a6)
r . 5 3 5(+.5s)o.997(6.62)
2 . r 7 2(s.6o)
r .o34
3.+r)
o.z8 r(r-rg)
r . o r6
@.zs)o.6zr(s. '+)r . r 05
3.sz)o.305(2.o6)
r . 53 8(+.os)o .253(o.82)
r . 69 t(z-go)
5.o73(s.6s )6 . 8 r 8
O'rz)s .8270.ss)3 . 7 2 2(s '8 z)
ro.093
(+.zz)
5 . 8 2 o( : . t o )
o.974( r .+s)4.r49(6-st)
3-905G.tr)5 .243(z.ss)r . r o 6( r .+8)8.68 r
3.sz)2 .352( t . t s )
r . 8 r 3
0. '8 )+.86+@-tz)7-508
(z+.++)
5'9390.8s)3.702(6.r2)
ro.466(6.er)
5 . I I 5
b.sz)
r .oo2
( '.+g)4 .2 r6(t."6)
4.c,69G.+6)s.+660.s8)I . 3 I 3
( r . g r )
8 .4 r3G.+s)
o
.l
G..dwi,,' I l,::'.i I a::i I l',1:,;; I (";l;i I l,;1'l lG.;i
o.96t I o .503 2 . 3 t 8 | - 5 . o 5 3
Equitvsecurities' I I i"L; I d:,1 I I r"i"llr-;o"t
4.196 | 2 .3o6 r4 .9 r r | 6 .9 t4
o.o34 I 0.233 o . r I 3 | r . 5 3 5
0.495 | -o.694
14.784 | Z.6l+
' I I . 4 r r
' I zo.9zo
ttot.t5
z
2rtl
€P
LiabiriryGrowth're83-85 I I i ;": j l ;; 'r] l I r"r 'r l rell) l I l(t ' t ')
r . so8 | r . 488 r .89o I r .56oBrokeredDep.si ,sd
I l i ; ! i i , \ i ; i : i , \ l ; :? l I ;Fl la; ; l I ego).whoresaleDeposi'lsd
I I e:l;la?:li I I (";il l(-;;'u). " .yrr I
\ - '
o.+s8 | 2s. '+39Expense-prererencer,ems'I l f f i l ,n:; I l i ;111 l ' t ; : : ; l I lr i ' ' ,rR2r I ""r, I
' . .r t l
' .1r. I o'r ' l " ' r t I " 'nu
F-Statistic Sz.z6 l ro7 . r4 l 7z '85- g 2 o
| - 8 - 7 r 7 I - e r o l - z z z l - s 8 z
Log-Likel ihood | | | t z--t
Naras: aEstimates of the probabiliry of failure during 1986-1989. For each variable,,ti: ll :::::e^1':jt"::T:t:ffillTt;:.:::
:::il",#::il::T [TililJ';ffi;il':;* ,,. ",t,-"t.d joi,'try *iih th. po"-.t.,, or an equation exprainins expected
liquidationcostsasaproportionofyerr-errJ r9g5 totalliabilities,usingavariationofthesample-selection-biascorrectionsuggestedby
Heckman (1979). .Structural characteristics as "f
D;;;;r,'rgsrldProportion of total ""tt' "'
of December 3r' r98z' tVariables
with p-values greater than o.zo in the single-equation probit results have been deleted to facilitate convergence of this procedure'
fRai,rrt.a ru for OLS results; McFadden's pseudo-R for probit results'
o.
5r yt ig. i?
o.o\
TABLE 3Esrrunrps oF THE DBrenutxRr.trs oF THRTFT LrquronrroN Cosrst
Variable
Constant
Structural Variablef
Risk-Weighted Assetsd
Tangible Net Worthd
Net Interest Margind
State-Stock Charter
State-Mutua] Charter
Federal-Stock Charter
Texas
Ti:xas State Charter
California
Calif. State Charter
Florida State Charter
Size (Log of Assets)
PubliclyTiaded
FHLB District Nine
-o.o53
( t . g r )o.247(z.zo)
o . r73(r .6o)
-a-244
Gr'zs)
o.ogo(: .46)
o.og7(z.zr)
o . r68(s.oo)
-o.or 8
?r . l t )
o . r65(6.2 s)
FIML Probitb
o.278(+.6t)
o .252(2. r 8)
o.o42(o.+o)
-o . r36
(-o.8: )
- o .2 IO
(-o.rs)
o.o2 r
@.zs)o.ooo(o.or)
o.o5 8( r . r+)o.o25
(o.s:)
o. r24(z .s 8)
- o.o3 5(-o.ss)-o.o42
(-o.s6)-o.o44
F""tz)o.oo8
(o . ro )
- o . o 2 I
(-r-6s)-o.o7r( - r . r 6 )
o . r r 9
Both
O . 2 I I
G.zs)
o'r7 5( ' .s6)
-o.278
?t . t t )o.339(o.+s)o.o8z(2.82)
-o.ooI
( -o 'o l )
o . r05(z . z l )
-o.oo5
(-o.os)
o . r78( i . l s )o.o23
(o.:6)
o.o20
(o.rs)-o.or7
(-o'rz)o.o54(o.s6)
-o.or 5(- r .8o)-o.o77( - r . t s )
o . r7o
o.o53( ' .ss)
o.o6o
O.sz)
o.o3 8(o.s8)
o . r 5 6(s .s s)
o.o92
\ 5 . 2 2
-o.65 8(-s.6o)
o .55r(s.r : )
- r . 7 3 r(- r+.27)
e
o-323(r z .8a)
o.247(+.++)
o.243
@.r7)
e
o.o38(o.68)
o . r 5 3(s.or)
e
o . r39. I I
o
.ltr,
(.)
o . r 7 r
G.st)e
o.oo7(o.tz)
e
o.337( ro .ss)
trt
td
t.I-
z
ztrt
€
G.+z) 4"ro)
,A/aler: aEstimates ofexpected liquidation costs as a percentage ofyear-end r985 totd liabilities for thrifts faiJing during 1986-1989. For
each variable, the 6rst row presents the parameter estimate and the second row presents its r-statistic. bFIML probit results are estimated
jointly with the parameters of an equation explaining the probabiJity of failure, using a variation of the sample-selection-bias correction
suggested byHeckman (r979). tstructurd characteristics as ofDecember 3 r, r982. oProportion oftotal assets as ofDecember 3r, rg8z.
"Variableswith t-statistics less than r.o in absolute magnitude have been deleted to facilitate convergence ofthis procedure.
o.';iD rt.s. i::p+: ar
A
6
EsrruRrps oF rHE o"r"ff*:irtlTXl,., Lreuronrror.r cosrs"
FIML ProbiPVariable
Behavioral Variables
Multifamiiy Mortgages.
Nonresidential Mortgagesc
Land Loans'
Commercial Loansc
Consumer Loansc
Real Estate Investments.
Service Corp. Investments.
Equity Securitiesc
Goodwill'
LiabiJity Growth, r983-85
Brokered Depositsd
Wholesale Depositsd
Expense-Preference Items'
r986 Failure
r987 Failure
r988 Failure
Correlation of error term.f
R'
F-Statistic
" . - J )
( t . 8 s )
o.279
@.26)
r . o36( r z . r 9 )
o .548t / r r r \
o .539
G.+z)o .627( r .zz)r . 303
$.gz)o .585(o.r6)
o .372 4 ' r 9
o . r66(r .+6)
o .283(:.os)o .556(6.2")
o .57 r(2.+z)
-o.oo8
(-o.o6)
o . 5 r 5
G.s6)r . 349(0.6s)
o .72 r(o.+8)
o . 2 5 r( r .ss)o .z8z(2.82)
r . o57
Gr.T+)o .593(z. lz)
o .554(: .s a)o .6 r9(2.26)
r 378(6.2o)
o . r45( r . : r )o . 2 6 5
(r.o+)o .54 r
6.a+)o .542(r.++)
o.o I o
(o.zt)
" ' " / J
( -o .+8)
o .78o(8 .2g)
o .2og
(o.6s)
o.263
0. t " )o . rg3(o-6s)
r . og2
0-r4!
o . r45
o .z6 5(z.sz)o.54 r(8'oz)o.542Q.rs )
e
" . J J )
( t . t s )
r . 2 r 7( ro .83 )
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