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Iozzi, Louis A.; And OthersFuture Scenarios in Communications. Teacher's Guide.Preparing for Tomorrow's World.Rutgers, The State Univ., New Brunswick, N.J. Centerfor Coastal and Environmental Studies.New Jersey State Dept. of Education, Trenton.8060p.; For related documents, see SE 041 564-585. Acomplete catalog of the multi-media packages makingup this prograrvis contained in SE 041 585.SOPRIS WEST, Inc., 1120 Delaware Ave., Longmont, CO80501 (Complete multi-media module, including studentmaterials, $85; replacement student worksheets,$9).Guides - Classroom Use Guides (For Teachers) (052)

MF01 Plus Postage. PC Not Available from EDRS.*Communications; ',Computers; Critical Thinking;Decision Making; Delphi Technique; EnvironmentalEducation; *Futures (of Society); InterdisciplinaryApproach; Junior High Schools; Learning Activities;Moral Development; *Moral Issues; *Prediction;Problem Solving; Science Education; Secondary SchoolScience; Social Studies; Technology; *TelephoneCommunications SystemsPreparing for Tomorrows World Program; ScenarioWriting; *Science and Society

"Future Scenarios in Communications" is one of the"Preparing for Tomorrees World" (PTW) program modules. PTW is aninterdisciplinary, future-oriented program incoxporating informationfrom the sciences and social sciences and addressing societalconcerns which interface science/technology/society, :The programpromotes responsible citizenry with increased abirities in critical

\ thinking, problem-solving, social/ethical reasoning, and\ decision-making. Compared in this module (for students in grades 7-8)

is the development of two communications systems, past and future,, and their impact on changes in life-styles. The module is comprised\of two seCtions, the first examining development of the telephoneSystem in the United States and the second examining the developmentand applications of the computer. Futures forecasting techniques(Delphi probe, trend analysis, cross-impact analysis, scenariowriting) are used in both sections. The teaching guide includes adiscussion of the socio-scientific reasoning model (theoretical basisof the PTW), module overview (purpose; strategies employed; modulestructure/objectives; and its use in the school curriculum), andsuggested instructional strategies. A bibliography and list ofKohlberg's stages of moral development are included. The module maybe used as a separate unit of study, as a mini-course, orincorporated into social studies, language arts, history, or generalscience courses. (JN)

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U 8 DEPARMENTOF EDUCATION

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New Jersey State Department of Education

Fred G, Burka .

Commissioner of Education

Joseph L. PicognaDirector of Title IV

Sarah BanksConsultant, Division of School Programs

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Preparing for Tomorrow's WorldAn Interdisciplinary Curriculum ProgramCoastal Decisioris: DifficUlt ChoicesEnergy: Decisions for Today and TomorrowFuture Scenarios in CommunicationsSpace Encounters " 2Technology and Changing Life-StylesFood: A Necessary ResourcePerspectives on Transportation

Future New Jersey: Public Issues andthe Quality of Life

People and Environmental ChangesEnvironmental Dilemmas: Critical Decisions

for SocietyOf Animals, Nature and HumansBeacon City: An Urban-Land-Use SimulationDilemmas in BioethicsTechnology and Society: A Futunstic

Perspective

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Copyrighto 1980 by Highland E'ark Board of Education., Highland Park, New_Jersey

Copyright will be claimed only during the period offurther developMent unless copyright of final material is

' authorized by the New Jersey Department of Education.

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The materials presented herein were prepared pursuant to a grant from the New Jersey State Department of EducatioA under provisions of TitleIV-C of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (1965),as amended. However. theopinionsexpressed icerein do not nedessanly reflect theposition or policy of the New Jersey Department of Education or the U.S. Office of Education.

PREF5ARING FOR TOMORROW'S WORLD

Future Scenanin Communications

Teacher's Guide

Developed and Prepared byLouis A. lozzi, Director

Janey MY. Cheu, Associate DirectorWilliam G. Harding, Curriculum Specialist

Nancy Brzezinski, Administrative Assistant

dis

Institute for Science, Technology and Social Science EducationThe Center for Coastal and Environmental StudiesRutgers The State University of New JerseyDoolittle HallNew Brunswick, New Jersey 08903

44.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSA project uf this broad scope reflects the contributions of many indduals who have shared with us their professional expertise. Lreative insights. wisdomand support. Our deepest appreciation and special thanks are extended to:

Highland Park Public SchoolsBoard of EducationDr James Sgambettera. SuperintendentDr. Edwaid Leppert. Assistant SuperintendentMr. William Donohue. Assistant Principal.

Highland Park High School

Center for Coastal andEnvironmental Studies, Rutgers University

Dr Norbert P. Psuty. DirectorDr. Leland G. Merrill. ProfessorDr. Karl Nordstrom. Assistant ProfessorDr. Carol Liichfield. Associate Professor

(presently E. I. DuPont de Nemours & Co.)Ms. Janice Limb. Director. Cartography Lab

Cook College - Rutgers UniversityDr. Arthur W. Edwards. Chairman. Education DepartmentDr William G Smith. Assistant ProfessorMs. Maryalice Annun. Secretary

Department of Radiation Science, Rutgers UniversityDr. Francis Haughey. Professor

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Graduate School of Education - Rutgers UniversityDr. George J. Pallrand. ProfessorDr. Michael Piburn. Associate Professor

New Jersey Department of EducationMs. Sarah BanksDr. Ronald LesherDr. Joseph Picogna

New Jersey Department of Education -Middlesex County Office

Dr. Rita . Carney. Superintendent. Sr. Therese Alma. Coordinator. Private Schools

Ms. Jean Sadenwater. Coordinator

New Jersey Department of EnergyMr. Brucc Hoff. OCS CoordinatorMr. Robcrt Golden. Energy Analyst

Stanley Cesaro AssociatesStanky Cesaro, President

,e3 Peter Bastardo, Curriculum Specialist11iiabeth Public Schools

Eliiabeth. NJ.

5

Sincere a ppreuatton is expressed to thc St. KRA systcms that assisted the project and served as field test centers We especially thank the followingteachersandtheir students who field .esicd the prcliminat y drat ts ol this program. and also those teachers and students vsho scrsed as control classes Their enthusiasm.cooperauon and thoughtful enmities arc integral components in the successful development of these materials.

Ashur* Park Districta Asbury Park HighSchoolDobares Lynch. Joseph Marino. Thomas Sobicsicryk

Burlington City DistrictBurlington City High School

David Burchell. James Franchino

-Dumont DistrictDumont High School

Raymond Polomski

East Brunswkk TownshipDistrictWantsdorfer Elementary School

Tracy Shisler

Franklin Township DistrictSampson G. Smith Intermediate School

Robert Brobst. Chai:person. Science Dept . Md Hill. Charles Ko/la.Victor Luty. Steven Michelow/. Science Coordinator.William Petscavage. Ihereca Thorsen. Centro! Carol Guarino

Galloway Township DistrictArthur Rann Elementart Sclwol

Stephen Bent. Stanley Cvsiklinski

Hamilton Township DistrictHamilton East - Siemer: High School

Allen Da kin.'itonald DiGiuseppe. Thomas Ebeling. Chairperson.Science Dept . Paul Fessein. \Wham Kestcr. Rilla Lee Kramer.Lester Gibbs. Kenneth Sullican. Control Joseph DePugho.Elmo Kirkland

Hillsborough Township DistrictHillsborough School

Jane Voss

Irvington DistrictUnion Avenue Elementary School

Louise Donnelly. Adele Hueston. John Ignacio. Science Coordinator

Long Branch DistrictLong Branch High School

Joseph Anastasia

Long Branch Junior Ikgh &bootRobcrt Frost. Florence Kessler

Middktown Township DistrictMiddletown High School South

William Harding. Patricia Larkin

Milltown DistrictParkview Elementary School

Judy Temkin

.Montgomery Township DistrictMontgomery High School

Thomas Smith

Montville Township DistrictMontville High School

Joseph McKeon

Mprris Hills Regional DistrictMorris Knolls High School

Cathleen Anderson. Priscilla Arnheite r.Science Coordinator. Barry Lehman.

Xorris Hills High Schoo/Mph Pane:. Ed ward Spencer. Marilyn

George Hrobuchak.Raymond Tarchak

Tenney

North Arlington DistrictNorth Arlington High School

John Bennctt

Oakland DistrictIndian Hills High School

Lawrepee Insley

Old Bridge Township DistrictCedar Ridge High School

Edna Hudson. fiudy lwanski. James Simes. Control Raymond Davis

Princeton Regional DistrictJohn Witherspoon Middle School

James Messersmith

South Brunswick Township DistrictCrossroads Middle School

Jean Dorgan. Director of Instructional Development

South Brunswick High SchoolR. Brian Biemuller. Robert Chopick. Chairperson. Science Dept..

Tcrry Farinella. William Gray. Robcrt Johnson. Virginia Markham.Control George Blackburn. Karen Korarski

Spotswood DistrictSpotswood High School

Roberta Baker. Ernest Beckley. Control Karen Boyk

Toms River Regional DistrictThins River Intermediate East Middle School

Terry Reagan

Union Township DistrictBurnet Junior High Sclwol

Ralph Amato. Jack Roland. Science Coordinator. RobcrtControl-Patricia Abrahamson. Thomas D'Agostino

Union Senior High Schoo/Patricia Mueller

Washington Township DistrictLong Valley Middle School

Francis Hobbie. District Curriculum Coordmaton Robert Joyce.Kenneth Kopperl. John Streko. Control Diane Bauman.Susan Chadwick. Vincent Domeraski. Carol Farrell. Philip Kinney.Richard Klett. Anthony Martin. Judith Novack. David Weidemoyer.

4Louis Zarrello

Woodbridge Township DistrictJohn F. Kennedy Memorial High

Crystal Lingenfelter

NONPUBLIC SCHOOLS

Chelsea School. Long Branch%Thomas Cronin

Red Bank Catholic High School. Red BankDrew Arcornzno. Steve Donato. Steve Johnson. Gene Luciani.

St. Mary Wendelin. Control George Jones. Kathleen Walsh

St. Marys High School. Perth AmboyRussell Simon

St. Peter's High Schoe, New BrunswickSr. Joseph Marie MciMms. S.C.

St. Pius X Regional High School, PiscatawayBr. Kevin Cunniff. Barbara Goodman. James Duris.

St. Thomas Aquinas High Schorr/. EdisonBetsy Piesen

PREFACE

We live m an exciting. rapiElly thanging,and challenging world a v.orld highly dependent upon science and technology. Ourworld is changing so rapidly that we sometimes fail to recognize that much of what we today take for granted as common.everyday ot. turrences existed only in the imaginations of peopk just a fe v. short yars ago. Advances in science and technologyhave brought many dreams to fruition. Long before today 's school children become senior citizens, much of today's "sciencefiction" will, in fact, become reality. Recall just a few accomplishments which not long ago were ie wed as idle dreams.

Nett biomedical advances have made it possible to replace ildective hearts, kidneys and other organs.

The .fir.st air flighi at Icittt Hatt k lasted otz0 a felt sewnd.s. Nott. a little over half a century later space ships travelthousands of miles an hour to explore distant planets.

Aut. lear let hnolugt of interest afett short years ago because of iis destrut tire potential could provide hunrkind withalmost limitless supplies of energy for peace-time needs.

Cwnputer let iznologi has made it pos.sible to solve in seconds problems It hhh onh a decade ago It ould require manyhuman lifetimes.

St lent e and let hnologt hate broughl u.s io the brink of controlling It eat her, earthquakes and other natural phenomena.

Moreover. the changes v. hich we have beer, experiencing a: J to which we have beconie accustomed are occurring at anincreasingly rapid rate. Changes. most futurists forecast. will continue and. in fact. even accelerate as we move into the 2IstCentury and beyond. But. as Barry Commont,- has stated,"There is no such thing as a free lunch."These great advances will not

be achieved without a high price. We are now b.eginning to experience the adverse effects of our great achievements:4.10.

The world's hatural resources are being rapidly depleted, 'Our planet's waier and air are no longer pure and clean.

Thousands of plant and animal species are threatened with extinction.

Nearly half the world's population suffers from malnutrition.

W hue science and technology have given us tremendous pov.er. we are also confronted with an awesome responsibility, to use

the power and ability w. iseb. to make equitable decision tradeoffs. and to make valid and just choices when there is no absolute ,

"right" alternative. Whether we have used our new. powers wisely is highly questionable. 0

Today's y outh will soon become society's decision-makers. Will they be capable of improv ing upon the decision-making ofthe past? Will they possess the skills and abilities to make effective. equitable. long-range decisions to create a better world?

To the student:

his module has been prepared to help you the student and future decision maker function more effectively in a rapidlythanging world. Other modules in the Preparing for Tomorrat 's World program focus on additional issues of current andfuture, importance.To the teacher:

It is our belief that this module and indeed the entire Preparing for Tornorrott's World program will help y ou the teacherprepare t he future deusion maker to deal effect IN ely with issues and challenges at thy interfaces of science, technology, societyIt is our belief that the contents and activities in this program v. ill begin to prepare today's youth to live life to the fullest, in ,

balance with Earth's resources and environmental limits, and to meet die challenges of tomorrow's world,

Louis' A. lozzi. Ed. D.Cook CollegeRutgers-The State University of New Jersey

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTIONTHE THEORETICAL BASIS OF PREPARING FOR TOMORROW'S WORLD:THE SOCIO-SCIENTIFIC REASONING MODELOVERVIEW OF FUTURE SCENARIOS IN COMMUNICATIONS

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Purpose 9

Future Scenarios in Communications in the School Curriculum 9

Objectives of the Module 9

Components of Future Scenarios in .Communications 9

SuggestedTeaching Schedule 10

FUTURES FORECAST METHODOLOGIES 11

GUIDE TO SECTION I: THE TELEPHON E 15

Overview 16

Introduction. Completion of the Telephone Dial 16

Activity 1: Living Without a Telephone 17

Reading I: Early Uses of the Telephone 20

Activity 2: Selling the Telephone 20

Reading 2: The Telephone A Communications Network 20

Activity 3: Scenes of the "Fupre": An Exercise in Scenario Writing 21

Reading 3: Changes in Telephone Technology and Growth 21

Activity 4: Diveloping Your Telephone System and the Delphi and the CrossImpact Matrix Analysis Techniques in Planning Strategies 22

Activity 5: Scenario A Plan for Your Telephone Company 28

Activity 6: Trend Extrapolation Forecasting the Rate of Growth 28

Activity 7: Who Will Get a Telephone? A Role Playing Exercise 30

GUIDE TO SECTION II: THE COMPUTER 41

Overview 42

Reading 4: The History of the Computer 42

Activity 8: Scenario: A Computer in Your Life 42

Reading 5: Computers + Communications = Compunications 43

Activity 9: What are Your Computer Forecasts A Delphi Survey 43

Readirg 6: The Computer: Friend or Foe9 44

Activity 10: Exploring Computer EfIkcts the Futures Wheel 46

Reading 7: Computers by the Numt4rs 46

Activity 11( Forecasting,Computer Trends: An Exeicise in Trend Analysis 46

Activity 12: 'What are Your Future Visions? A.ommunications Scebario 47

Sortie Concluding: Remarks 47

SELECTED BIBI2IOGRAPHY: MORAL SOCIAL ETHICAL DEVELOPMENT 48

BIBUOGRAPHY 49

APPENDIX: Stages of Moral Development 50

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INTRODUCTION

"To avert future shock, we must create a super-industrialeducation system. And to do this, we must search for ourobjectives and ods in the future, rather than in the past."

Alvin lbffierFuture Shock

Alvin Toffler, in his book Future Shock, focuses attention on ch'ange on its rapidly acceler-ating pace and its impact on our lives. He documents the development of a unique phenomenonwhere individuals are overwhelmed by too much change in too short a period of time. This"future shock" produces stress and disorientation. As a partial antidote, Toffier suggests thatwe make a concerted effort to speculate on the nature of alternative futures that we may con-

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front._

Philip Wendall in Learning for Thmorrow emphasizes the point that, "The imagining of possi-ble futures is now fundamental both to the process of personal growth and to the developnientof a world consciousness . . . With new technologies rapidly and radically reshaping the entiresociety.. . . role definitions are no longer stable. Roles for young people and the very context inwhich roles are defined-are likely to be more different than,the same in the future."

Toffler and others2 wouid have us reorient the educational process. Rather than direct theattention of students to the past with its outmoded facts, lifestyles and methods for solvingsocietal problems, these futurists would encourage students to contemplate the dilemmas andopportunities of the future: Through this process students will be able to weigh the advantagesandidisadvantages of possible alternativc futures and define one or more preferable futurescenarios,

In accord with this philosophy this module is designed to introduce students to some forecast-ing techniques used to investigate the future and to provide sufficient background informationto allow them 'to develop future scenarios. It should be made clear at the outset that the moduleemphasizes the techniques of future projection. The module is not designed to yield predictionswith high degrees of accuracy. As economists and other social scientists have amply demon-strated, it is extremely difficult to make precise predictions of human systems for even shortperiods of time.

However, the future cannot be ignored because we are unable to perceive it with precision.Bythe same token, the past should not be studied exclusively simply because it is known withcertainty. As the approach in this module demonstrates, we can examine the futtire in relation tosocial and technical trends established in the past and arrive at a range of alternative scenarioswhich may come to pass.

1Philip Wendall. Futurism and the reform of higher education. In Learning for tomorrow, Alvin Toffler (Ed.), VintageBooks: New York, 1974, p. 290.'Wendall Bell. Social science: the future as a missing variable, and Shane, H.G. and J.G., Educating the youngestfor tomorrow, in Learning for tomorrow, Alvin Toffier (Ed.), Vintage Books: New York, 19

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The Theorefical Basis of Prepating for Tomorrow's Workt

The Socio-Scienti4c Reasoning ModelAs pointed out in the IntrodUction to this guide, develop-ments .in science and technology are not without societalissues and problems. New developments and applications willinevitably bring about new issue's as well as increasejheircomplexity. Unlike scientific problems, socio-scientific prob.;lems often have no "correct" answei bbcause they involvehuman choices and decisions. Such choices and decisions arevalue ladene'd. The particular decisions made today andtomorrow 4 ill determine the course of the future. Hence. weare faced with the profound challenge to make just and wisedecisions in order to create a better future world. To helpprepare our students to become more effective problemsolvers and decision makers, education will need to focus onthe simultaneous development of the following skills.

Ability to deal with problems containing multipleinteracting varia bles

Decision making that incorporates a wider social per-spective

Critical thinking in the evaluation of consequences and

implications

Components of theSocio-Scientific Reasoning Model

In response to the above concern and retogni/ing the impor-tance of this mode of deve lopment. we developed the "socich,scientific reasoning" model to serve as a framework in theproduction of our turriculum materials. This model combines our ow n philosophy. ideas and research with the theo-ries and philosophies of Piaget. Dewey. Kohlberg iMd Sd-man. Basic to these theories is the idea of education as helping

an individual grow both intellect ually and morally. Therefore.this socio-scientific reasoning model approaches educationfrom a developmental perspective. This model incorporatesthe ideas of stage development from the perspective of cogni-tion. moral, ethical reasoning and social role taking Thebasic tenets of these theories are bnefly summarized below

Logical Reasoning

Jean Piaget, the noted Swiss psychologist, has made impor-tant contributions in the area of cognitive development whichare pertinent to our effortst 2. Piaget views the developmentof logical reasoning as progression through the sena ofstepwke stages indicated inTable I (sensori-motor, preopera-tional. concrete operational and formal operational). At eachsiiccessive stage the logical reasoning ability of individualstakes on a broader perspective and incorporates the abilitytodeal with greater numbers of interacting variables of iiireas-ing intellectual complexity. Each stage of thinking buildsupon the previous one, but takes on a new structural form.Growth in cognition, it seems, can be facilitated and nurturedthrough appropriate educational experiences.

. In explaining growth in logical reasoning capability, Piagetrefers to the processes of assimilation, accommodation, andequilibration. Assimilation occurs when the child ,incor-porates new ideas and situations into his or her existingthought struct ures. On the other hand, the child also encoun-

,ters objects and events that do not fit into his or her exiiiingthought structures. In these contradictory situations, the childhas essentially tw.o options: he,' she must, either enlariehis, her existing structures or create a new category or struc-ture. Piaget defines this as the proce§s of accommodation.

Intellectual growth. Piaget postulates, occur,s when theindividuatattempts to resolve' the tension between the inter-active processes of assimilation and accommodation bydeveloping new thoughts and' regponses that are molt suit-able or adequate. Equilibrium is re-establiqied when thoughtstructures are altered, producing new accOmmodations thatenable the individual to assimilate the new situations. Intellec-tual growth. then, occurs through internal self-regulationprocesses that lead to new, higher levels of equilibration.

Moral/Ethical Reasoning

While there are several approaches to values education, themore encompassing one is the cognitive developmentalapproach offered by Lawrence Kohlberg3 4. Kohlberg's ideasare derived from the philosophic positions of Dewey andand Piaget. The emphasis here is to help individuals growintellectually and morally. This is, we feel, a more functional.approach than arbitrary indoctrination of values as used in-"character" or "socialization" education or taking a "valuesrelativity" stance, typically employed in the more commonvalues clarification approach.

Kohlbergs moral, ethical development theory is an exten-,

sion of Piagers cognitive development theory. Similarly toPiaget, Kohlberg 1. ims moral development from childhoodto adulthood as progression through a series of stages (Table2). Each stage is characterized by a very different way ofperceiving and interpreting one's experiences. At Kohlberg'sStage 2, for example, "right"and "wrong"are judged in termsof satisfying one's own needs and sometimes the needs ofothers if it is convenient to do so. Stage 3 type of reasoning.cen.ers around maintenance of approval in one's own` ocigroup. The orientation is towards conformity to group expec-tation. At the higher principled stages, reasoning takes intoaccount concerns for the welcare of others in a broadercontext, and includes concerns for kuman dignity, liberty,justice. and equalitythose very same principles upon whichour Constitution is based.

Following Piaget, Kolhberg views development not asmere accumulation of information, but changes in thinkingcapabilitiesthe structures of thought processes. .In thecourse of development, higher-level thought structures areattained and result in the extension of an individual's, socia)perspective and reasoning capabilities. Applying higher levelsof thinking to problems results in problem solutions thathave greater consistency and are more generalizable. SeeAppendix detailing the stages of development.

Social Role-Taking Stages

The research of Robert Selmans indicates that social roletaking ability is a develOped capacity which also progresses in

a series of stages from early childhood through adolescence.Role taking is viewed by Selman in terms of qualitative

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. Changes in the ma nner a child,structures his/ her trnderstand-

ing of the relationship between the perspectives of self andothers.

Using the open-ended clinical method of inquiry first ap-,&lied by Piaget and then later by Kohlberg, Selman hasidentified and defined Stages 0 through 4 (age range isapproximately 3 years to 15+ years). These stages are referredto as: Ego-centlic Viewpoint (Stage 0), Social-InformationalRole Taking (Stage 1 ). Self Refkction Role Taking (Stage 2),

' Mutual Role Taking (Stage 3), and Social .and ConventionalSystem Role Taking(*tage4). Descriptions of the role takingstages appear in Table 3. Each of Selman's role taking stagesrelates closely to and parallels Kohlberg's moral reasoningstages. ..

Selman views the social role taking stages as alink between

Piaget's logical reasoni ngstages and Kofilberg's moral reason-ing stages '. thTst as Piaget's logical reasoning stages are neces-

sary but not suffiqient forattaining the parallel mocal reason-ing stages, a similarly necessary but not sufficient relationship

appears to exist between the social role taking stages andparallel moral reasoning.stagelii

As Selman has pointed out!. ..the child's cognitive stageindicates his level of understanding of physical and logicalproblems, whilellis rolt taking stage indicates his level ofunderstanding oil he nature of social relations, and his moraljudgment stageindicates the manner in which he decides (towto resoke socidl Lonflicts between people with different pointsof viewn":

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.,The Socio-Scient* Reasoning Model

Combining our own philosophy, ideas, and research with thetheories of Piagef, kohlberg and.Selman, the socio-scientific-reasoning model has been developed. Socio-,scientific reason-

ing, as defined here, is the incorporation of the hypothetico,deductive mode of problem Aving with the social and moral/ethical concern s_of d.ecision making. This model has served as

..a guide in the development of educational materials to helpstudents advance_to higher levels of thinking and reasoningcapabilities. Moreover, it is highly flexible and readily adapt-able to other classrOom activities.

The basic assumption of this model is that effeCtive iirob-lem solvinrquires simultaneous developMent in the-reaImsof logical reakning, social role taking, and moral/ethicalreasoning. Purely objective scientifie thinking cannot be ap-plied in the resolutiOn of most of the probable future cool-Has'withbilt regard to the impact of those decisions on human .. 'needs andehuman goalspA technological solution, for exam-ple, may be, after critical analysis, feasible and logicallyconsistent. From a societal perspective, however:one mUSI s squestion whether or no; it should be applied. How to bestprioritize our needs and evaluate trade-offs with a concern forthe needs of future generation's involves logical reasoning and-

critical thinking,but now with an added dimension . . . asocial moral/ethical reasoning dimension,. .

.

Hence, the Socio-Scientific modd corisists of four interact-ing components (see Figure 1): ( I j logical reasoning devejop-.

TABLE 1

PIAGET'S STAGES OF COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT

FORMAL

STAGE

FORMAL LOGICAL OPERATIONSThinks in a hypothetical-dectuctive mannerConsiders all possible relationships

.TRANSITIONAL - EARLY FORMAL OPERATIONSBegins to think more abstractly

'-f Awareness of new possibilities

CONCRETE OPERATIONAL (SUBSTAGE 2)Reasons only about concrete objectsApplies logic in a limited way

.k.

PRE-OPERATIONAL - (SUBSTAGE 1)Can represent objects symbolically - uses language, imagesView of world only as he/she sees it - highly egocentric

SENSORIMOTOR STAGEAcquires concept that objects exist apart from seIfCoordinates movement, habit

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_ment is based On the theories of Piaget, while (2) moral,ethical reasoning relierst rongly on Kohlberg's ideas. Selmdn's

- research proc ides the basis for the third component, the social

role taking aspects of bur model. Since thy, Content or i nfor-million component of the problem component lour) willvary, so too will Oa concepts vary accordingly. For example.in our applications of this model we nav e concentrated onissues at the interfaces of science. technology, and society. Of

course, problem issues could also deal with or focus on anyother topic one chooses to investigate.

The content component also consists of three interactingsubunits. These subunitS 'science, technology, and society-,rely on each cther for their very existence. While each of thcsubunits.is dependent upon the others, their individual under-lying value structures create a high potential for discord sincethe concerns of one subunit oftin conflict with those of thc

TABLE 2

KOHLBEI:-IG'S STAGES OP MORAL DEVELOPMENT

STAGE 5: SOCIAL CONTRACTEmphasis on democratic ethic, reaching social consciousnessRespect for self and other

STAGE 4. LAW ANDORDERDo your duty, set good exampleRespect authority and follow the rules

\TAGE 3 CONFORMITYWhat is right is what others expect of me

(Be kind and considerate of others - good intentions

STAGE 2. BACK SCRATCHINGWhat's right is wnat's good for meEye for eye. tooth for tooth concept of justice

STAGE l*OBEDIENCE AND PUNISHMENTRight is what authorities commandBe good arid avoid punishment

TABLE 3

SELMAN'S' ROLE-TAKING STAGES

STAGE e SOCIAL AND CONVENTIONAL SYSTEM ROLE TAKINGRealizes mutual perspective taking does not always lead tocomplete understandingEach sell considers.the shared point of viewpf thegenecalized other (social system) -

STAGE 3: MUTUAL ROLE TAKINGRealizes self and other can consider each party's point of viewsimultaneously end mutually ,7

` Can step outside dyed and view action from third person perspective

iSTAGE 2: SELF-REFLECTIVE ROLE TAKING

Relativiic belief that no person's perspective is absdlutety validReflects on the self's behavior as seen from other's point of view

STAGg 1: SOCIAL-INFORMATION'ROLE TAKINGAware that self and others may have different social perspeOtivOs:Focuses on orte persliective, not on coordinating viewpoints of self, and others

5

FIGURE 1

THE SOCIO-SCIENTIFIC REASONING MODEL

Serisori-Motor

1"--*1

I

ROLE TAKING,

DEVELOPMENT

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others. This paradox dependence and simultaneous conflictamong the subunitspresents a unique opportunity and con-text for curriculum devdopers employing the Socio-SciptificReasoning model to prepare educational materials.

Each component of this model is not seen as a totallyseparate and distinct entity. Rather, each of the four compo-nents interacts with and has an effect on all other components.Thus, logical reasoning has an effect on, and in turn is affectedby. social role taking development. In a simila'r manner, socialrole taking has an effect on, and is affected by, developmentsin the moral, ethical realm. Of course, logical rcasoning andmoral, ethical reasoning also interact. Each of these majorcomponents logical reasoning, social role taking, and moral,ethical reasoning interact not only with each other but withthe fourth :omponent, contcnt or information.

Reierring to Figure I again, the content cone is small at thelow end because at earlier stages of development the numbcrof concepts entertained are smaller and the concepts aresimple in nature. Hence, as the cone broadens so too does thccomplexity of content or information included. individuals atstages of development intersecting the lower end of the conccan deal with issues and concepts of a simpler form while, onthe other hand, nick iduals at the upper end with higher levelsof maturity have the capacity for dealing with more issucs andIssues of greatcr complexity. Development, then, is both

ertica I and horizontal. vertical dev elopment is from lower tohigher stages, honz.orital development relates to the "neces-sary but not sufficient" requirements which must bc satisfiedas one moves from logical reasoning, throUgh social roletaking. to moral reasoning capabilities.

Thus, while cach stage reflects a distinctly unique capabil-ity for problem solving in a science, technology, socicty con-text, we view dev elopment or progress as a continuouslyspiraling proccss. In this process. however, there are leaps andquiesence, and fixation at any stagc is possible. Levels oflogical. reasoning, moral rcasoning, and role taking maturityalso seem to vary, we find. dependiag on the issues addressed.These a pparent inconsistencies in reasoningeven when deal-ing with the same or similar mental and moral constructsseem to be related to the dcgrcc cif emotionality, familiaritywith, interest in, and, or knowledge about the issues underconsideration'.

Thc goal thcn is to help each individual "spiral" upwardsthrough the Socio-Scientific Reasoning conc and Synchro-nously achieve "more adequate" problem solving capability." More adequate" as used here refers to the idca that whenapplied to problem solving, the higher stages of rcasoningresult in solutions that are more cncompassing and generaliz-able. they enable student3 to deal with greater complexity.

Application of the Socio-Scientific Reasoning Modelin the Clanroom

'The Socio-Scientific Reasoning model therefore serves as thebas for identifying the types of learning experience and thesop tication level of thosc experiences important to help

-stud9lts develop. It rccognizes that learning capabilitiescf. er with age, grade level, interest and learning needs.

mplicit in the model and in accord with stage theory is theidea that at each stage there is a characteristic form of think-

ing capability which determines how experiences and infor-mation are interpreted and acted upon.

The main strategy underlying all if these activities is basedon Piaget's concept of equilibration. It is only when disequi-librium is crsated that active restructuring of thought takesplace. This active restructuring leads to growth in logicalreasoning, in social role taking, and in moral, ethical reason-,ing capabilities as well.

Restructuring of existing cognitive structures occurs wheninternal disequilibrium is felt by the individual. New expe-riences and inputs which art not readily comprehensible tothe individual challenge his, her existing mode of thought byrevealing inadequacies or, inconsistencies in that problemsolving strategy'. Arrestment at a given stage is partiallyexplained by the developmental theorists as the lack ofopportunities that create conflict or dissonance which place °the individual in a position where he,' she needs to assesshis, her particular mode of thinking. Perhaps, as Clive Beckpoints out, thc reason why people do not develop morally isbecause they have not had the opportunity to entertainalternatives their imaginations have not been extended9.We, in addition, contend that the reason people do notadvance ::-. logical reasoning can also be attributed, to a largedegree. to a similar lack of opportunities.

We have identified some of thc basic elements needed toprovide experiential opportunities that promote develop-ment of problem sok ing and dccision making skills. A partiallisting Includes providing oppOrtunities for studcnts to.

Encounter a variety of viewpointsExperience higher level reasoningTake the perspective of othersExamine and clarify one's own ideasExamine the consequences and implications of one'sdccisionsDefend one's positionEvaluate possible alternativesConsider and recognize the role of the self to societyReflect on one's own value systemTest own ideas and those of others

One educational activity which incorporates some of theseelements is the classroom dilemma discussion, an activitymost commonly associated with Lawrence Kohlberg and hiscolleagues. We have, however, modified and extended thisapproach to more systematically encompass critical analysisand evaluation of information and data. We have alsoemployed such other formats as role taking, simulations, andfutures forecasting and analysis methodologies.

Fur example, reasoning at a particular stage is not a valuejudgment of whether an act is good or bad, but is the patternof the concepts enfertained in judging thc "ought'of rights,dutics and obligations of human relationships. Youngerchild-ren at lower stagcs reason about duties in terms of reciprocalVnefits from the palty"If you do me a favor, I will do you afavor." Whereas in principled reasoning, duty is what anindividual has become morally committed to do and is ielf-chosen. Higher stage reasoning is therefore the ability toapply value concerns (Kohlberg's major concerns include selfwelfare, welfare of othert, sense of duty and of Motive&conscience, rules, punitive ,justice, role taking) in a more

ITO

7

internalized, complex, autonomous, critical, consistent andgeneralized manner.

Effective discussion, however, cannot take place in avacuum. Needed also is an information base or context fromwhich students can begin to analyze and evaluate informa-tion. With information which they have extracted and-syn-thesized, addluonal ideas and rational arguments can be devel-oped for discussion. For curriculum activities, we havecreated problem situations in a variety of contexts which,according to scholars in a variety ofkgelds, will be prominent

.,

in the next quarter century and beyondl° This adds anotherperspective to the dilemma problemthat which elicits scien-tific logical reasoning in addition to moral/ethicalreasoningbut in a futuristic context.

These serve as mechanisms for students to put some of theideas and judgments that have emanated from the dis_cussioninto larger structural frameworks. They also provide studentswith opportunities to project into the future, to think beyondtheir own immediate experiences, and to consider the impactof different decisions on future society.

.?

'Jean Nast. Phiget's theory In 1 homas Lickona (Ed.) Charnmhgets rnanual of thdd pstx holm New York. John Wiley and Sons. 1P70.

=Howard E. Gruber and J J. Vonkhe The essential Piaget. Ncw York' Basic Books. Inc.. 1979.

' Lawrence Kohlberg. Moial stages and muralimtion. thc 1. ognative-dodopmental approach. In Thomas Lickona (Ed ) Moral development and behavior.theory. research, and social Issues. NewYork: Holt. Rinehardt and Winston. 1976.

'John (jibbs. I Kohlberg. A Colby and B. Speieher-Duban. The domain and devdopment of moraljudgment in John R Meyer (Ed.)Reflections on valueseducation. Waterloo. Ontairo. Canada: Wilfred Lawricr University Press. 1976.

Ruben Sdman Suetakognitive understanding. a guide tu educational and clinical practice. In Thomas Lickona (Ed.) Moral development and behavior:theyrr. researeh;and social issues New York: Holt. Rinehardt and Winston. 1976.

"Ibid. pg 307Louis A tom Mural pidgment. terhal Alit 1. logical resoning abdati and environmental issues. Doctoral Dissertation. Rutgers-the State University of New

Jersey. 1976 ' /

"Carol lomlinson-Keasey and I lark 11. Keasey The mediating r, : of eognaive devdopmcnt in moral judgment Chdd Development, 1974. 4.5. 291-298.

'Tine M Beck Ethu s. 1 oronto: McGraw-Hill. 1972.'"Harold G. Shane Curriculum change kmard the 21st rennet Washington. D.C.. National Education Association. 1977

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OVERVIEW OF FUTURE SCENARIOS IN COMMUNICATIONS

Purpose

From the earliest times w hut humans fashioned thefirst tools. such ,ls implements foi hunting, technologyhas been a dominant hange agent in the course ofhistory. In today's world new technological dev clop-ments ,ippeat more rapidly and with gleatei frequency.Yet: we seldom step aside to reflect upon how thesetechnologies will impact upon ow !iv es, changing whatwc do and how we go about accomplishing'our activi-ties. To bettet prepare ow students for the Name, it isimportant to include,opportunites foi them to criticallyexamine the dev elopments and potential applicationsof new technologies.

rhe important goal of this module is to help studentsbtgin to think about change and factois that influence

change. They will liv e in a world k here change willtake place at accelerated rates. They will encounternew choices and alternatives. Experience in learningto think about change in a larger context will betterprepare students for future decision making.

Thk module employs futures forecasting techniquesas one strategy to study change. The types of forecastspeoplp make and how the forecasts are interpreted en-ter into the,decision making process. The developmentof the telephone system in the U.S.. Section 1 of_thismodule, exemplifies this notion. In this first section.change is examined from an historical peispective. InSection II, students will examine the many way s thatcomputers can be useq and new types of changes. Thissection requiies studenh to take a future wiented peT-specthe. They will coikkler possibilities and the desir-ability of what is' possible.

Future Scenarios in Communications inthe School Curriculum

This module, designed for secondary, school stu-dents. grades 7 and 8, is appropriate for a number ofsubject areas: social studies, language arts, science,etc. The particulai course in which this module istaught will, of course, influence the manner in vs hichthe concepts and issues are examined.

In science classes the teacher might emphasize thescientific principles and technological aspects of thetelephone and the tomputerp In social science classes,the teacher might emphasize the social, political, oreconomic effects of new technologies.

:The ntain intent is to engage students to think aboutthe future and recognize that ,effective future planningand decision making are dependent upon knowledgefrom many disciplines. Moreover, the specific tech-niques of futures forecasting have wide applicationsand encompass skills,developed in the various subject

,areas.

The module may be incorporated- into the curricu-lum in t numbei of Wa),s. The module may be used as

single unit of study, or portions may be interspersedin.the curriculum at appropriate or convenient times.However. the ,ictivities and readings should be pre-sented in the sequential order since the activ ities ire-quenfly depend upon information deriv ed from t pre-ceding activity.

Movies ,ind filmstrips which provide additionalbackground information about the development ,indscience of the telephone and computer are highly rec-ommended. They will enhance the module activities aswell as heighten student interest. Many are available,free of charge, from Bell Laboiatoties, the telephonecompany or computer corporations.

Objectives of the Module

Student accomplishments to be achieved with the useof, the readings and activities are specified by the fol-lowing student objectives. After completing the mod-ule students will be able to:

Trace some historical developments of the tele-phone from 1876 to 1910.Trace some historical developments or the elec-tronic computer from 1890 to the present time.Identify selected social, impacts of the telephoneand the electronic computer.Describe the forecasting techniques of the Delphiprobe. the Cross-Impact Matrix. Trend Analysisand Scenario development.

Conduct a Delphi probe in their classroom toidentify the range of preferences regarding a par-ticular question.Carry out an analysis of the interaction amongsocio-economic factors in communication sys-tems using the Cross Impact Matrix method.Conduct a trend analysis fdi. selected measures oftelephone and computer development and use.

. Develop scenarios which examine alternativefutures.

Components of Future Scenarios in Communications

Student's GuideTeacher's Guide

Student Handouts 9

Transparencies for overhead projection 5

Future Scenarios in CoMmunications is comprised oftwo major sections. Section 1 examines the develop-ment of the telephone system in the United States and

9

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ihtroduces four futures forecasting techniques. Sec-tion I I examines the development and applications ofthe computer. Students will use the forecasting tech-niques learned in the preceding section to make theirpredictions about future trends and developments.

Suggested Raching Schedule

Class Period

PART 1:THE TELEPHONE

10

Activities

Introductory exercise and dis-cussion. Assigment of Activity

1

2 Completion of Activity 1

Pre-Telephone Chart and classdiscussion

3 Reading 1 and assignment ofActivity-2

4 Student presentations of Activ-ity 2 Selling the Telephone

5 Reading 2 and class discussion6 Activity 3 Scenario Writing

(this may be assigned for home-work)

7 Students -present their sce-narios

8 Reading 3 and discussion9 Activity 4 First Round of

Deiphi Survey10 Activity 4 Second Round of

Delphi Survey. Presentation ofresults. Completion of CrossImpact Matrix Analysis Chart

Class Period Activities

I I Activity 5 Scenario writing12 Activity 6 Trend extrapola-

tion and discussion of results.(This activity may be accom-plished as a homework_ assign-ment and the additional timemay be devoted to the discus-sion of applying graphing tech-niques to future forecasting.)

13 Activity 7 A Role PlayingExercise

PART II:THE COMPUTER

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17

18

19

20

21

22

23

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7

Reading 4-and class cliscussionActivity 8 Scenario writingReading 5 and class discussiOnActivity 9 Delphi Survey,Round OneActivity 9 Delphi Survey,Round Two and discussionReading 6 and class discussionActivity 10 The FuturesWheelReading 7 and class discussionActivity I I ForecastingComputer TrendSActivity 12 Scenario WritingPresentation of Scenarios

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FUTURES FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES

Forecasting and Planning

Forecasting and planning are _common, everyday ac-tivities carried out by all people. Although many peo-ple would deny that there are unique methodologiesinvolved n these activities, few would question theirvalue .

For the individual, forecasting and planning atthe lowest level of complexity are almost auto-matic. If someone inspects the sky on a cloudy dayand subsequently takes a raincoat to work, one hasengaged in both activities. We look ahead for manyreasons because we are inquisitive, because wemay want to change our current situation but moreimportantly, because we believe it is useful to do so. Ifindividuals or organizations forecast correctly, or rea-sonably so, and then plan and act accordingly, thingstend to work out much more satisfactorily. Not sur-prisingly, forecasting sometimes has its highest payoffwhen events do not turn out as forecasted; a forecastof disaster may lead people to change their actions andthus avoid the disaster, or at least moderate its conse-quences. Without forecasting, without anticipation,actions taken today may lead to consequences thatmaterialize so quickly that it would be imposMble forhumans to protect themselves or under beneficial con-ditions to profit from such consequences.

Forecasting and planning are aspects of decision-making. A decision is not made without some idea ofwhat to expect; if that idea ismade explicit we clearlyhave a forecast. Plans are developed on the basis ofthe forecast to increase the chance of arriving at achosen goal. For decision-making, the,value of a fore-cast does not necessarily lie in whether or not it comestrue, but in its utility in helping decision-makers tochoose more desirable courses of action and to act ef-fectively. Predictions state itluit will luippen.Whereas, forecasting makes predictive statementsabgut u hat It ill happen if . . . Forecasting thus allowsus to examine what can happen, what can be changed,and how we might bring about change. For educators,forecasting and futures studies provide a vehicle forhelping students to contemplate the nature of theworld in which they will be living and working. Withsome perspective of present day trends and future pro-jections of population, technological developments,economics, social systems and various other parame-ters, students will be in a better position to plan tor avocation, a satisfying lifestyle, etc. and to cope withunanticipated changes in our society.

Forecasting Methodology

Forecasting, as used in connection with this module,employs a set of formal methods to systematically and.logically examine data and information. In this man-ner, one can begin to chart a direction of change andconsider alternative future possibilities. A forecast

thus yields a measure of the future that. is based oncertain assumptions, information and the interactionof the relevanCfactors. Using the given methodolo-gies, different forecasters can expect to obtain a fairlyconsistent and reliable image of the future. That imagecan, therefore, provide a foundatiorkfor oanning, de-cision making and acting.

Future forecasts may be made using a number of'complementary techniques. There are three basic ap-proaches to forecasting: exploratory forecasting, nor-.mative forecasting and modeling or simulation.

Exploratory forecasting begins with a given database and projects into the future. As such, it makesuse of extrapolative techniques to analyze data for,,trends. By contrast, normative forecasting looks back-ward toward the present. It begins with a set of desiredgoals and objectives for some future time, and derivesthe actions necessary to proceed from the presentstate of affairs to a pr ferred future. Modeling/simulalion, on the other h nd, attempts to analyze theimpact and interactions of known variables or modelsto arrive at a forecast of alternative futures. This lastapproach often uses a computer and complex mathe-matigs to simulate and test possible futures, and will,therefore, not be used in this module. Instead, the ac-tivities in the student guide are a mix of exploratoryand normative techniques.

Each forecasting approach hants unique purpose aswell as limitations. In order to obtain a more compre-hensive view or insight into the future, mOst fore-casters use a number of techniques in combination.

The Delphi lechnique

This widely used futures research technique was de-veloped as a mechanism for eliciting and refining theopinions of a group of experts. It makss use of a seriesof two or three questionnaires which are usuallymailed to the participating experts whose identities arewithheld from one another. A compilation of the re-sponses from the first Delphi questionnaire is devel-oped into a second questionnaireswhich is presented tothe same panel of experts. Each ihdividual is asked toreconsider his/her responses in light of the collectiveopinions from the first Delphi i-ound. If a third ques-tionnaire is employed, the participants are providedwith a summary of round two responses and the rea-sons why panel members changed their initial re-sponses. The parkipants then have an opportunity toadjust their responses one last time. The participantsthus make judgments based on their own ideas and'opinions of other experts.

Cross Impact Matrix

The Cross Impact Matrix is used in this module as afollow-up to the Delphi survey. The survey leads tothe identification of a series of discrete items or occur-

1811

rences about which the "experts" have reached aconsensus. The Delphi technique does not explore in-teractions among the items which have beer identi-fied. The Cross Impact Matrix allows us to explorethese interactions to determine the effect (positive ornegative) and the force of,.,the interaction. This anal-y sis is accomplished with the use of a grid consisting ofrows and columns. The rows and columns are labeledWith the items or occurrences from the Delphi surveyas shown.

A

A

AThe investigator asks, wha is the impact of item A

on item B, and how strong is the effect? By Way ofexample, the matrix above shows a positive effect(arrow pointing up) and a strong effect (relatively largearrow). By carrying out this analysis systematically,one can begin to evaluate the relationship between dif-ferent elements and determine the desirabilities of var-ious effects. This type of analysis offers a convenientmethod to gain an overview of the interrelationshipsand help identify the trade-offs involved when oneseeks certain goals.

Trend Extrapolation

This mathematical technique, using, trend curves toforecast future conditions, is a powdrful one but likeall forecasting procedures make certain assumptions.The assumption underlying this technique is that thepast and present trend curves (a plot of a measure ofperformance versus timOwill continue in the future asthey have in the past. Extension, or extrapolation, ofthe curve should, therefore, yield the performancelevel at any given point in the future. New technologi-cal innovations, however, are difficult, if not impossi-ble, to predict. A pair of trend extrapolations is there-fore often produced which correspond to optimisticand pessimistic projections of future performance,availability, etc.

This technique can, obviously, be handled in.a veryrigorous fashion. In the module its use will be re-stricted to concepts and processes appropriate for stu-dents in &des 7 to 9.

Scenario Forecasting

A scenario is a narrative which gives substance,,to andintegrates forecasts of the future. It usually involvesthe development and description of a sequence of

,11"-t

events leading from a given point in time to a fore-casted future state. The narrative presentation pro-vides the freedom and flexibility necessary to discussthe complex interaction of factors and variables of thepreferable future and to weave a detailed descriptionof alternatives perceived by the writer. It explores pos-sibilities in an imaginative and creative manner.

The scenario thus allows one to examine changesand interaction_oLfactors in a broader perspective.This process of relating events and considering conse-quences can serve two useful purposes for the decisionmaker. It can serve as a planning guide. One deter-mines a certain set of goals for the future an ses thescenario to lay out the steps necessary to a 'evethose goals. It can also be used to examine effectsparticular decisions since different decisions lead todifferent futures. The scenario, in this instance, woulddescribe the implications of a decision. This would al-low one to weigh advantages and disadvantages anddecide if the result is desirable.

Scenarios can be presented in a number Of4ays,ranging from science fiction story dramatization,planning diagrams to visionary drawings. Its underly-ing purpose, however, is the exploration of a possiblealternative or unique and unusual idea, coordinating

. the available information.Although scenario writing is a frequent technique

employed in futures forecpsting, it is also a usefulloolfor examining the ways the components of a situationor activity interact and effect change. As the studentsdevelop their scenarioS, it is hoped that they will gainan awareness of the characteristics and boundaries ofdifferent variables.

Getting Started

Thinking futuristically such as in scenario writing isoften difficult because our thinking is so influenced bywhat we know and what we have experienced. Thefollowing are' some simple ways to help get studentsstarted in projecting into the future, by generating un-.usual ideas or ideas not yet coniidered.

Brainstorming This is a useful technique for writ-ing a scenario as a group activity. The purpose of thistechnique is to try to obtain as many ideas as possible.Present to the group the basic theme that has beenselected. Let each person in turn contribute an ideaand continue going around the group until all possible-ideas seem to be exhausted. One person's idea oftenleads to other ideas, Or, ideas may result from combin-ing several ideas. The important rule for brainstorm-ing is to reserve judgment. No one critically commentson another person's idea. -Each arid evtryideaistreated equally, no matter how far-fetched it mayseem. Have one person record the ideas, and at theend of the session the list will be read. Then the groupcan decide which ideas are more interesting, practicalor feasiblei-CP incorporate in the scenario.

Attribute Listing The attribute listing techniqueinvolves listing every attribute or characteristic of anobject or event, so that one can begin to think aboutthe object or event in new and different ways. Take,for example, a situation in which one has to sell awarehouse of old pencils. Perhaps one would have abetter chance of selling the pencils if other uses could'be found for them.

Fii.st, list all of the attributes and components of thepencil, such as:

3voodleadcolor paintrubber erasermetal ring

(joining eraser)

For each of the attributescan be described. Wood, forbuilding, firewood, shaved

longslenderinflexiblestronglight

some of its possible usesinstance, can be used fordown for packing mate-

rjals, splinting, etc. For the erasers, which are soft andbouncy, other possible uses might result from gluingthem together and thus forming a pin cushion or adoormat, or perhaps they may be used as corks forsmall bottles.

By thinking of unconventional or unusual uses, onemight discover a new market for oid pencils, and onecould therefore quickly sell the contents of the ware-house.

Thinking Visually

Ideas can be communicated in waft other than bywords. Sometimes it is helpful for stildents to put ideasdown in the form of drawings and diagrams. By re-cording one's thought in a diagram plan, one has madea record that can be then eitamined, added to, relatedto others and then changed. A great deal of infoyma-tion can be communicated in this way even though the

drawing or sketch is quite simple and rudimentary.

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13

. Is

Guide To Section I:The Telephone

av

NNN

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NN

NN

NN

,

Overview

The intent of this section is to introduce students to afew of the basic techniques employed in futures fore-casting_and guide them through investigation 9f a veryfamiliar subject the telephone. Students will betransported back in time so that they can create forthemselves an understanding of the concept of changeand the impact of that change. Change is a natural oc-currence but difficult to visualize or isolate as it is oc-curring within a short time frame (especially for youngstudents whose experiences and memories do not ex-tend beyond a decade). Moreover, the direction, scopeand type of change result3 from a variety of decisionsmade and the particular actions taken. It is importantfor the student to understand that other possible alter-natives might have taken place. The telephone, as weknow it today in the United Statss, did not jlist happen

but evolved from particular decisions and preferences.(This is most evident if one has had experience withtelephones in other countries.)

The impact and significance of change can perhapsbe more readily understood by young students whenthey study the course of past events. Inventions andtechnical applications have numerous ramificationsand when examined with consideration of possible al-ternatives may help students understand 'the interac-tion of complex processes. Hence, the inipact of thetelephone and its role as a change agent are examinedto set. the stage for the second part of this module whenstudents are asked to project into the unknown futureand take into account possible social, political andeconomic effects. It is our belief that understandingpast effects and interactions, students can gain greaterawareness of future potentials.

Introduction. Completion of the Telephone Dial

Description

On page 1 of the Student's Guide of Future Scenariosin Communications, a blank telephone dial and touchtone buttons are shown. The numerals and letters areto be written in their appropriate places.

Student Objectives

To discover that familiar details are not oftenstored in memory.

To develop interest in the activities to be subse-quently presented.

Comments and Suggestions

This simple exercise is self-explanatory and requiresno additional instructions other than to remind tht stu-dents to work on their own since they will not begraded on their results. Have students copy the dia-

16

gram on a separate sheet and fill in the appropriateletters and numbers. The purpose is to highlight thedifficulty in recalling details of an instrument we useroutinely. The class will discover that very few peoplecan accurately reproduce the numerals and letters onthe telephone dial. This exercise can seive as a usefullead-in to a discussion of technology in our lives, howwe perceive technology and its aspects we take forgranted.

Some questions for class discussion might include:What oiher things do we use that we don'tthink about? Why?How do we feel when an appliance or machinedoesn't work? Why?What do we do when a machine breaks down?

s Repair? Replace?If we did not Kaye telephones, how might ourlives be different?

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Activity 1: Living W

Student Handout I:

Student Handout 2:

ithout a IblephonePre-telephoneCommunications Chart

Urban ComunityPre-telephoneCommunications Chart

Rural Com.munity

Description

Sk lents will consider how people conducted theirdaily affairs in pre-telephone days by providing a solu-tion for the accomplishment of a particular task.Eleven persons and their tasks are listed on the twocharts in the student's guide and reproduced ashandouts.

Student Objectives

To gain on awareness of how the telephone haschanged our work and leisure activities.

To examine the alternative modes of communica-tion in pre-telephone days.

To consider lifestyles in urban and rural com-munities prior to the telephone.

Student Activities

Class discussion on telephone usage.

Individually or in small groups students will com-plete a section of the Pre-telephone Charts.

Procedures and Suggestions .

Class Discussion. Prior to the assignment, briefly-consider in a class discussion:

The different activities the students accom-plish through the use of the telephone. Listthese on the board.

The different activities accomplished by theirparents through the use of the telephone.Again list these on the board.

Compare the two lists and determine the var-ious categories of communications that in-1,olve telephone conversations (or recordedmessages)

entertainment businessnews, weather socialemergency aid information, i.e.,shopping library service, etc.

Completion of Pre-telephone CommunicationCharts: Completion of the charts can'be accomplishedin several ways.

411/:'

Indivklually: Assign eac student to completeportions of the urba,147hart or rural chart.When completed, theX:sponses of the entheclass'can be comparet,Small Groups: DiviOthe class into groups pf.3 or 4 with each groCip responsible for one ofthe charts. The responses of the groups canthen be compared and summarized duringclass discussiOn.

Students working in small groups may be thdpreferred method for comeleting this activity.Differing opinions can very well lead togreater diversity of ideas as well ak- make iteasier to complete the charts.Under the title Of each person listed are twocommunications tasks. Students are to suggestunder "1" how that task might be accom-plished and under "2," estimate the length oftime required to accomplish it. If the studentswork in groups, they may wish to share theirmany ideas in the class 'presentation. In thiscase, they can expand the chart using largersheets of paper or make a separate chart foreach person so that they have more space foradditional suggestions.In some instances it may be difficult for stu-dents to imagine life.in the late I800's. If avail-able, display some pictures depicting lifestylesof that period.Detailed characteriiations-of the personslisted on the charts have not been specificallyspelled out to permit a degree of flexibility.Use yourjudgment and discretion in providingadditional constraints and information regard-ing each of the individuals such as the size ofthe town,,the place of residence, availability oftransportation, etc.

Class Discussion and Summary. After studentshave completed their assimment, arrange a short dis-.cussion session for students to share their results. Ex-amine the different communication needs of the twotypes of communities. What are the commonalities?DifferencesZTh6 major objective of this_activity is tocreate for students an awareness of the limited rangeof communications, its slowness and intermediarymessengers requiTed, priorlo the widespread use ofthe telephone. Therefore, focus the discussion on the,,lifestyle of the earlier times and the degree of interper-sonal contact and information exchange among peopleliving in various communities.

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STUDENT HANDOUT ONE

URBAN COMMUNITY4,2

Owner of aVegetable Warehouse

Research Scientist -'Discuss a possible new

Fire Chief of CityCall for more equipment to a Housewife Woiker in a Factory

Learn that potato shipment discovery with scientists 100 fire spreading throughout the Contact repair man to fix the Report that he/she will not be

has been delayed by storm miles away block leaking roof in to work

24

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Find another source qfpotatoes until shipmentarrives

Inform mayor that the citywater supply contains .,

dangerous germs.Call Meeting of all companycaptains

Tell children at home that shewill be late in returning home

Invite friends to a party.

1.

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2.

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,,

3.

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e

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DO NOT WRITE IN YOUR BOOK

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Farmer(wheat thrm inmidwest. gearestneighbor &miles)

Vewspaper EditorTbcal paper thatpublishes weekly;circulation 2,C90; hasstaff of 3 others

RURAL COMMUNITY

Rutcher and Owner_if_meat market-

(Sell & delivers to localcustomers

Sheriff(4-man force in ruraltown)

STUDENT HANDOUT TWO

Eighth-grade student(Walks to school 2miles away; 5-roomschool)

Recent Immigrant(apprentice in a tailorshop. Works from 7 Ale.=-.."to 7 PM: Lives in upstairsloft of shop. Cannotread or write English)

Order supplies forspring planting

Receive news of thepresidential election

Get dator for workerwho has had anaccident in shop

Inform the nearbytowns of an escaped

'prisonerGets sick at schbol 'andwants to tell mother.

.Contact relative in city100 miles away

1..

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Round up a searchteam for a lost child

Arrange for trip to state.capitollneeds hotelroom, train ticket, tourguide)

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26

DO NOT WRITE IN YOUR BOOK

Reading 1: Early Uses of the iblephone

Summary

How people first reacted to the telephone and its initialuses are described.

Student Objectives'

To acquire some historical information on thetelephone and its uses.

To gain an awareness that initial perceptionsabout an invention frequently differ from rater views.

To discover some of the obstacles that new inven-tions often encounter.

Adtivity 2: Selling the Telephone

Description

This simulation activity offers students the opportu-nity to experience some of the early reactions and re-sponses to the telephone. Some of the points made inthe preceding reading are highlighted in this exerciseas students take the "pro" or "con" position regardingthe telephone.

StudeneObjectives

To gain an understanding of the different waysthat people first perceived the telephone:

To develop arguments in support of a given roleposition.

To learn to take the perspective of another per-son.

Student Activities

Students will present a series of dialogues be-tween a telephone salesperson and potential customer.

'they may select one of the roles listed in the student'sguide or a role of their own choosing. Each role char-acter is paired with a telephone salesperson. Thesalesperson must try to convince the other person thathe/The needs a telephone. The other person presentscounter arguments and reasons for not wanting atelephone.

After all the mesentations have been made, theclass as a whole may informally identify the best"sales pitch" and best arguments for not wowing a tel-ephone.

Comments and Suggestions

Since the telephone has become such an integral partof our daily lives, it is difficult for us to imagine whyspeople were so resistent to subsoibing to telephone

..serAge. To help the'students gain a perspective of neg.;ative reactions to the telephone, point out some of thedifficuhies associated with early telephone service.Some are identified in the subsequent readings and in-

20

Coinnteitrat Suggestions

After students harnp eted the reading, yOu maywish to have them consider the fokoz,ving questions inclass discussion or a written exercise:'

Why might people -be skeptical a6oiit the-use--othe telephone in daily activities? -

Why weren't some of the early suggestigns fortelephone uses adopted?

Why did the 'use of the telephone occur earlier inindustries such as mining?

Why did niany people view the telephone as aluxury or a toy?

elude: the inConvenience of using the first telephones;the poorquality of sound transinfiiion; the paucity ofpeople who have telephones; the limited distance:oftelephone lines; the frequent breakdown of equipment;the long waits in getting a c,all connected; the high costof telephone subscriptions, etc. In addition to techni-cal probleniS; certain psychological and social aSpectsalso contributed to the public's skepticiank For manypeople, personal and business habits had to be alteredor adjusted in order to optimally use the telephone. Inmany instances, the early telephone presented moreobstacles than, convenience.

Reading 2: The 'TelephoneA Communications NetworkSummary

The concept of telephone communications as a sys-tems network of many interdependent componentsand services is presented. Early developments of thissystem are examined through examples of problemsand needs that arose.

Student Objectives

To gain an understanding of telephone communi-cations as an organized system comprised of manyinterdependent parts.

To gain an understanding of the development.ofthe communications industry in the United States.

Comment's and Suggestionsr-

A class discussion should help to define some of tfcefollowing words and concepts which students encoun-'tered in the reading.

corporations, subsidiaries, local companiespublic service industriesinvestment, capital and profitsprofit needs vs. public needspatents, licensing

28

Activity 3: Scenes of the "Future": An Exercise in Scenario Writing

Description

The ways in which futurists often employ scenariosare described to the students: A list of scenario themesare presented. Students will select one of the themesfor their scenario or else develop one, of their own.Some guidelines for scenario writing are included.

Studebjectives

To employ scenario writing as a futures forecast-ing technique planning towardS a-goal or examiningthe implications of that goal.

To consider some possible alternatives for.the useofthe telephone from the perspective of a person liv-ing at the turn of the century.

Student Activities

Students will write a two to three page scenario basedon one of the themes suggested or the students' own

-.ideas. This written exercise may be accompliThed indi-vidually orin groups.

Comments and Suggestions

Entourage students to use their imagination andtry to project the thinking of a person living 70 yearsago. They should not be constrained by their knowl-edge of the telephone system as it exists today.

Review the section on scenario writing coveredearlier in this guide. You may wish to try some of thetechniques for g+rating,unusual ideas found underthe section titled " etting Started." Students may findthese strategies h lpful, particularly if the scenariowriting is a group ffort.

Examine with the students the suggested ap-proaches to scenar writing given in the Student'sGuide.

i

Have the sttidents, individually or in smallgroups, select the Scenario theme of their choice. Oralternately, students may have- other scenario ideasthey wish to develop; the themes listed are but a fewpossibilities. The scenario can be written in a narrative(short story, diary, -newspaper article, letter, etc.) ordramatic (skit, monologue, play, etc.) form.

Students should utilize the information presentedin the preceding reading as apoint of departure and tryto envision how peoPle originally responded to the dis-covery of voice transmission\ by wire.

The primary ohjective of this activity is to pro-vide students with an opportunity to plan towards agiven goal or examine the ralications of a given goaldecision. In either case, the tudent, as he/she pro-ceeds to develop his/her detailed plans/steps, begins toexamine the interachon of mtiltiple factors and con-siders how different factors 1-spond to or affect an

outcome. Additionally, the exploration of a "far out"or "far fetched" idea brings out new possibilities, andstudents can perhaps begin to gain an understandingthat applications of technology are linked to.the per-ceptions andrveds of the particular community and itscustoms and the decisiOns to apply it in a certain way.Future scenarios, therefore, are not entirely specula-tions of fantasy, but a planning procedure or. examina-tion of alternatives which appear to depart from realitywhen the time frame is extended to a far distant futuretime.

When students have completed their scenario,have them share it with the class by reading it aloudorpresenting it is a dramatization.

Reading 3: Changes inlelephone Thchnology and Growth

Summary

Some technical developinents are described to paintout the necessary refinements required in order fortelephone communications to be practical over longerdistance as well as to become more convenient for theuser. Moreover, certain problems could not be re-solved until new technologies were discovered.

Student Objectives

To pin an understanding that the'application Ofcertain inventions necessitates continuous refinementas well as additional new technologies.

, To gain an tfnderstanding of some of the manychanges that occurred in telephone technology.

Comments and Suggestions

The diagrams describing the types of switchingnetworks may require further clarification. The needfor exchanges and switching can perhaps be better un-.derstood by the students if they realize that each tele-phone requires a separate wire and when a call is madeto another party the respective telephone wires mustbe physically connected.

A simple exercise to illustrate this concept can beperformed in class. Take several feet of sturdy stringand have a few students take places along the string tosignify a single line system. Have them then deviseways to call one another along the line. This is an ex-ample of a single party line which does not involve theintervention of an operator. How will they 'notifysomeone to pick up the telephone?-

Demonstl.ate the concept of station switching by us-ing separate pieces of string all leading to a centralperson who switches the calls between the differentcallers. Duplicate this set-up with another group of

21

students. Ask them to figure a method by which thetwo groups can communicate with one another. Theidea of central switching and the use of trunk linesshould tints become obvious.

The differences between telephones in' the early

days and today can be Made More explicit for the stu-dents by having them identify and list characteristicsof the early telephone and compare them with the tele-

-- phone as they know it now. Have them also considerthe similarities.

Activity 4: Developing Your Telephone System and the Delphi and the Cross ImpactMatrix Analysis Techniques in Planning Strategies

Student Handout 3: belphi Questionnaire: ATelephone Exchange forMiddletown

'fransparency 1: Cross Impact Matrix Chart

Description

Students are placed in a hypothetical situation inwhich they are to determine how to best develop atelephone systenrin their rural community at ,the turnof the century. They will base their decisions on theinformation acquired from their Delphi Survey andCross Impact Matrix Analysis.

Students will participate in two rounds of a Delphisurvey. The suryey consists of stating their choice ofpreferred outcomes on eleven statements. The resultswill then be examined using the Cross impact Matrixanalysis. In this analysis the students will consider theoccurrence of one statement (variable) and determinehow that will effect the occurrence of the other state-ment (variable).

Student Objectives

To identify their preferences regarding the estab-lishment of a telephone company using a Delphi sur-vey.

To analyze the interaction of selected variablesusing the Cross Impact Matrix.

Student Activities

Students individually will respond to two roundsof the Delphi questionnaire.

The class as a group will discuss the effects ofchoices made and complete the Cross Impact Matrixchart.

Procedures and Suggestions

Delphi Survey ,

Round 1. Each student will need two copies of theDelphi Questionnaire, but distribute only cine copy to

22

the students at thislime (save the remainder for Round2). Have the students follow the instructions in theStudent's Guide to make their Selection of preferredoutconies for each octhe eleven statements. StudentSwill indicate their eleven choices in the- appropriate

. places on the response sheet and submit it to theDelphi panel moderator. (Teachei-or Class Member)

In making their selections the students will first 'de-termine the priority of each item choice. Each itemwill then be ranked. One or more items can be miewedas extremely important, but' ranking these prioritiesforces a choice. This process demonstiates a sYstem-atic strategy for decision-making. After indicatingtheir choice, students shalcwrite a short statement onthe response sheet, explaining the important consider-ations that influenced the particular choice. (i.e. Givea reason for selecting that choice.)

The Delphi Panel Moderator will collect the re-sponses and summarize the results. Post these resultsfor the class to examine.Round 2. Conduct a' second round of the Delphi probeafter the class has had an opportunity to examine theresults. Again, distribute a second-copy of the re-sponse form, have the student indicate their choices*provide a reason for each choice. ReMind the stu-dents49 work independently anonymity'is an im-portant-feature of this survey. Discussion of Round 1Fisults is uniiss ry.

Collect responses i1khaain summarize. The itemchoices will be examined in ftaLter depth in the CrossImpact Matrix (CIM) analysis.-Thesitem choice re-ceiving the greatest'number of votes wilkerve to coin;:plete the statement. At this time you may*sh.to dis-'cuss the summarized results and the reasois 'whycertain items were favored over others. The classselect two additional statements for examination bthe CIM method. (In.addition to items 1, 2, 6, 11).

,Cross Impact lilatrix Analysis

This exercise is conducted as a class discussion where .

the entire class will determine the extent of the impact.The procedure is explained in detail in the Student'sGuide.

, You may wish to begin-hy reviewing with the stu-dents the examples given on pages 25 and 26 of theSu ident's Guide. Then have the class select two addi-tional statements for the analysis.

Complete the analysis using the chart reproduced asan overhead transparency or the chart copied on theblackboard: The preferred statements are entered inthe column and row headings using the abbreviationssuggested on page 24 of the Student's Guide. Thecompleted statements should be also displayed on theboard so that the students can refer to them as needed.

The analysis is a Systematic technique for examiningthe effect of one factor on another factor. In this mod-ule, students will evaluate the compatibility of onepreference with another preference. That is, will thepreferred choice lead- to the occurrence of the otherpreferred choice? Students are to determine the effectby indicating yes or no and explain how they arrived atthe decision.

Yes is indicated by a [I)No is indicated by a [0]

The symbol is then entered in the appropriate box.Determine also if other class members agree or dis-

agree with the analysis. It is important to emphasize

0

that different interpretations are possible but encour-age students to provide a strong argument that willuphold their position. Discuss one pair of impact state-ments, at a time and have the class vote on the deci-sion.

Upon completion of the Cross Impact MatrixChart, total the score and examine the findings. Deter-mine if the class is satisfied.with the findings (i.e., arethe-Ye many items that do not work well together?). Inthe event that many interactions are negative it maymean that the choices made were not compatible.Have the class make alternative selections by select-

ing other statement completion items froth the DelphiSurvey and analyze the impacts. Do this until the re-sults are viewed as satisfactory. The class, however,should be reminded that a perfect situation whichmeets all the criteria optimally is a near impossibility.In most real life situations, "trade-offs" are necessary.The critical decision is deciding whether oritot thesystem can function effectively in light of the compro-mises and whether items of greater importance havebeen adequately taken into account. (The class mayalso discover that items previously receiving higherpriority are now less significant when compared withother goals.)

31 \23

STUDENT HANDOUT THREE

Delphi Questionnaire: A Telephone Exchange for Middletown

Below are eleven statements (#1-11) to be com-pleted by one of several possible endings. Yourpreferred choice should be made in the followingway:Step 1: Priority Rating. Read each statement and

the possible phrases for completing thatstatement. Indicate how important youfeel each of tha choices to be by plaCingthe appropriate number of stars next tothe letter on the response form that corre-sponds to the letterof the phrase.**** extremely important*** important** slight importance* no importance

Step 2: Ranking. Arrange the statement endingsfrom most important to least important.For example, if you feel that "d" is mostimportant it should be ranked #1. Writethat letter in the appropriate space next torank #1. Do the same for rank #2, and soon, until all the possible choices havebeen ranked.

How Important1. Purpose of the telephone exchange in the

town:a) to make a handsome profit quickly so that

local investors (shareholders) will bepleased they invested their money in thisnew venture.

b) to make it easier and faster for the busi-ness man to conduct business.

c) to summon help in emergencies (i.e., po-lice, firemen, doctor, etc.)

d) to make it possible for the townspeople tovisit with one another without having totravel.

e) to obtain news and information (e.g.,election return, time, weather(eports).

Rank #1._ #2_ #3_ #4_ #5_2. Telephone service should first be made

available to:_ a) the people who can afford to subscribe tothe service.

24

b) the people who have greatest need fora-telephone (e.g., invalids, doctors, drug-stores, town officials, etc.).

c) everyone in town and paid for by localtaxes.

Rank #1_ #2_ #33. The company will obtain the equipment by:

a) renting from the Bell system because theequipment is standardized and lines canbe readily connected with other com-munities using Bell equipment. Further-more, the rental fee will include the costof service and repairs.

b), buying from independent equipmentmanufacturers. People will own their tele-phones.

c) forming its own manufacturing companyto produce equipment for its own needs.

Rank #1_ #2_ #34. The fairest way to charge for the telephone

service will be to:a) charge a single yearly fee such as $1.50

for businesses arid $100 for residences.b) charge.the user for the number of calls

made no matter how long the user is onthe line.

c) charge for the length of time the caller ison the line.

d) charge according to the distance betweenthe caller and receiver. For instance, call-ing one's neighbor will be less than calking from the center of town to a person inthe outskirts of town.

e) split the cost of the call between the callerand receiver.

Rank #1_ #2_ #4_ #55. Repairs to telephone instruments should be:

a) paid by the user as needed.-In this waypeople will he more careful in handlingthe telephone and would not be payingfor service they do not use.

b) provided by the company which, will set

aside part of the subscription fee for pos-sible -repair service.

c) a service provided by the town and paidby taxes.

Rank #1__

6. If the telephone linei, poles, etc. are da-maged by snow and ice storms,.for instance,the cost for repairs should be:_ a) assumed by the company which has in-

cluded a .repair service fee as part of thetotal subscription charge.

b) paid by those who are connected to thatparticular line.

c) shared among all the subscribers whowill then be billed by the company for thatparticular repair service. In this methodone pays for the service that is actuallyused.)

6nk #2,__ #3_7. The telephone operators should be:_ a) the telegraph and office messenger boys

who have lost their jobs as messages willno longer need to be hand.delivered.

b) person's who havp rad previous trainingas telegraph oper .ors.

c) young women, because in other tele-phone exchanges they have been shownto be more courteous and efficient.

Rank #1_ #3_8. 'If it is difficult to raise enough money in the

beginning to build an exchange to serve ev-eryone in the community and to run tele- .phone lines to every store, office and house,.!:1% company should limit the service by:_ a) establishing lines only in the business

district.b) offering only party-lines which would re-

duce cost.c) establishing lines to connect with the

neighboring towns and place the tele-phones in public places.

d) establishing lines in the part of townwhere there is the greatest number ofpeople willing to subscribe to the tele-phone service.

Rank #1_ #2_ #3_ #4

STUDENT HANDOUT TiiREE

9. The telephone exchange Should list the sub-scribers: ._ a) name only as this is a more personal type

of service. In a small town the operatorswill know everyone by name anyway. It .

will be easier when people don't have tolook up a number each time they make acall.

b) assigned telephone number so that theoperators will not have to memorize all .

the, names in the exchange to make thecOnnection.

c) house number and street name so nurn-bers don't change when people move.

Rank #1_ #2_ #3_

10. The telephone coMpany can best serve its,subscribers by:_ a) offering low taxes.

b) establishing long-distance lines to con-nect with other towns.

c) connecting cans quickly. and does notkeep the caller waiting,

dr.adopting new telephone imptovementsquIckly so that the calls can be made eas-ily, the conversation will not be inter-rupted, by other noises, the calls comethrough loudly and clearly, etc.

Rank #1_ #4_11. The telephone company should be:_ a) run as a private -independent company

with the company officers making deci-sions for its investors.

b) run as a community service departmentof the local town government to serve theneeds of the community.

c) run by the subscribers such as a mutualcompany or a cooperative where eachsubscriber helps to decide the type ofservice and equipment one wants andhow to best provide it.

d) run as part of the Bell System which canprovide enginebring expertise and longdistance connections to other parts of thecountry.

Rank #1_ #2_ #3_

as

3 4

IF THIS DECISIONWERE MADE

CROSS-IMPACT MATRIX CHART: Example

THEN THIS OUTCOME WILL OCCUR:

TRANSPARENCY 1 .

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Statement:Choice:

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IF THIS DECISIONWERE MADE,

CROSS-IMPACT matrux CHART: Example

THEN THIS OUTCOME WILL OCCUR:

TRANSPARENCY lA

Statement:Choice:

1) purposea. profit

2) availabilityb. need

3) equipmentb. ownership

6) disasterrepair

b. by user10) servicea. low rates

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36

Activity 5: Scenario A Plan for Your Iblephone Company

Description

In this scenario writing exercise students will use as aninformation base the data acquired from Activity 4.The scenario will thus describe their concept of a tele-phone system in "Middletown." a hypothetical ruralcommunity at the turn of the century.

Student Objectives

To project plans based on previously selected op-tions.

To consider future implications of particular deci-sions by predicting impossible outcomes.

Student Activity

Students will write a two to three page sceriario to becompleted' individually or. in small groups.

Procedures and Suggestions

The choices made by the students in the DelphiSurvey and Cross 1 mpact Matrix Analysis will serve

as the information base for this scenario writing exer-cise. The scenario should contain the detailed proce-dures for the development of a telephone exchange, in"Middletown." In a sense, the scenario is a compila-tion of the choices selected and put in a narrative form. .Additionally, it examines the implicationg and conse-quences of thosechoices.

The following considerations should therefore beincorporated in the students' scenario.

How will the funds for building the exchangebe obtained?Who will be served by the system?How will the customers be charged?How will the company be organized?What features of the telephone system will bemost attractive to the townspeople?

Students may work on this assignment individu-ally or in small groups. Listed in the Student's Guideare some suggested scenario formats., Again, encour-age students to be imaginative. They inay wish to usepictures, graphs and other display techniques to illus-trate their ideas.

Activity 6: Trend ExtrapolatiOn " Forecasting the Rate of GrowthStudent Handout 4: Graph IStudent Handout 5: Graph 2Student Handout 6: Graph 3Student Handout 7: Graph 4

Ilmnsparency 2: Graph ITransparency 3: Graph 2Ilmnsparencj 4: Graph 3

Thinsparency 5: Graph 4

Description

Four graphs describing telephone growth will be corn .pleted by students to forecast future trends.

Graph 1: Growth in the Number of Tele-phones, 1876-1898Growth in the Number of Tele-phones, 1876-1908Growth in the Miles of Wire, 1880-1900

Growth in the Number of Tele-phones for Each 1,900 Persons,1896-1910

Graph 2:

Graph 3:

Graph 4:

Student pbjeetivesa

To gain exDierience in us ing trend extrapo lation forforecasting the future.

Student Activities

Students will complete the four graphs to make predic-tions about h future year by extrapolating the gii/en

* growth curves. They Mould discuss the results of eachgraph before they proceed to the next graph: (Do notdistribute the ndxt graph until the precedinq has beencompleted.)

28

Procedures and Suggestions

If students have had little experience withgraphing techniques, review with them some .of thebaid concepts. The eixamples given in the Student'sGuide may serve as a useful introduction.

Assign students to coMplete Graph I. Have them"fit the curve" to the data points for the years 1876 to1898 and then extend the trend line using a broken(- - -) or dotted line C . .).

The rate of actual -telephone growth is found inGraph 2. The approximate numbers of .telephones forthose years are as follows:

Year Number of iblephones

1899 ` 1,000,0001900 1,355,0001901 1,900,0001902 2,371,0001903, 2,808,000

Use thp overhead transparency (Graph 1) to discussthe students' projections. Plot some of their projec-tions on the graph. Two curves are shown on,thegraph. Dne is the curve of the actual data. The other isthe interpolated etIrve (best fit curve) from which thetrend is extrapolated. a

Have the students compare their Graph I extrap-z,

olation with the actual growth shown on Graph 2. In-struct the student's .to take the data from Graph 2 andplot the actual growth in the number of telephones on

.,.

38

their Graph 1., A visual comparison of actual growthand predicted growth can be made. Discuss with thestudents some of 1'0-e-reasons why their predictionswere either sithilar or diffeient from what actually tookplace. (Note: The data point tbr'yeay 1903 extends He-yond Graph 1., Students may either'wish to add anadditional section to the graph or else simply draw the

tcurve in the direction of that point.)

Encourage students to do some additional re-search on the historical developments of the U.S. dur-ing this period. What political, social, economic andpopulation factors could Have contributed to the rapidincrease in telephone usage at this time?

Assign students to complete Graph 2, followingthe instructions in their guide. The,approximate num-ber of telephones for the years under consideration areas follows:

Year Number of Iblephones

1908 6,484,000

1910 7.635,000

1912 8,730,000

1914 10,046,000

11)16 11,241000. 1918 12,078,000

1920 13.329,000

1930 20202,000

Use Graph 2 overhead transparency to show the aC-tual growth.rate. Plot some of the students' projec-tions on the transparency during discussions of theirresults.

Assign students to complete Graph 3. Growth is'exceedingly rapid at this time. Students should inferfrom the steepness of the cut ve that the data points(for the years under consideration) fall beyond thegraph. The total number of miles of wire are as fol-lows:

Year Number of Mlles of Wire

1902 4.900.000

1907 12,999,000

c.

Show the Graph 3 overhead transparency duringdiscussion of student projections.

Assign students to complete Graph 4. The pre-vious graphs, Graph I and 2, may provide some addi7tional clues for the projection of the trend,line. Again,the overhead transparency, Graph 4, will be usefulwhen discussing student projections compared withthe actual growth rate.

Year

1896

1897

1898

1899

909

1901

1902

1903

1904

1905

1906

1907

1908

1909

1910

1911

1912,1915

920

1925

1976

Data Source:

Number of phones per1,000 population

5.77.1

9.213.3

17.623.029.734.5*40.448.851.270.072.476.582.0.83.390.7

103.9123.9145.2

500.0

'U.S. Bureau of the Census, Illstmkal StatiAdes (d. the UnitedStatrA.,Colonial .77nti.. to 1970. Bicentennial Edition. Part I.Washington. D.C.. 1975.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Special Report: TekpluntrA and 7i'le-Nrool1s. Washington, D.C.. 1902. 1912.

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: I II

4

32

4,000,000

3,000,000

STUDENT wiNbibut SIX

GRAPH 3: Miles of Wire 1880-1900

2,000,000

1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

6001000

400,000

200,000

1880 1885 1895

YEAR

1900

4 2

1905

0

1910

200

175

150

<

- STUDENT HANDOUT SEVEN

GRAPH 4: Number of Telephones for every 1,000 Persons, 1896-1910

125

100

75

50

25

1

X

1900 1905 1910 1915

YEAR

43

1920 1925

33

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1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,0D0

600,000

400,000

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TRANSPARENCY FOUR

GRAPH 3: Miles of Wire 1880-1900

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0

I I

Activify-7:-Who Will Get a.lelephone? A Role Playing Exercise

Student Handout 8: Tab le:Ib Aid in Decision Making

Description

Sttdents will role play a person living in the late 1800sand develop reasons for,why this person should obtainthe one available telephone.

Student Objectives

To take the perspective 'of 'a person living 90yearsago.

To consider the needs and concerns of anotherperson.

Student Activities

Eleven Students. will role play the applicants for atelephone.

The remaining students will serve as the judges ordecision making panel.

Procedures and Suggestions

'The widespread availability of telephones in theU.S. make this situation difficult for us to compre-hend. However, analogies can be drawn to other situa-tions where a product is scarce and a decision must bemade regarding its distribution. Also, another point tobe illustraed is that in the early days of telephonecommunications the telephone was not yet viewed asnecessary. People had to recognize it as being helpfulin the accomplishment of their daily activities as wellas to weigh the economic feasibility of the nmior in-vestment (e.g., the high yearly subscription rates). Inaddition, the degree to, which the telephone was usefuldepended on the interconnection capabilities of the lo-cal exchanges (e.g., Who can one call?). In isolatedrural communities the telephone was, in the beginning,primarily a neighborhood communications systemwhereas in the cities and industrial communities, thetelephone seryed to reduce the expenditure'orhumanenergy in a wide variety of activities and tasks.

Assign or have eleven students select one of thefollowing roles:

38

Urban Community

1. Owner of a vegetablewarehouse

2. Scientific researcher3. Fire chief4. flousewife5. Worker in weaving mill

Rural Community

6. Farmer7. Newspaper editor8. Butcher9. Sheriff

10. Student11. Tailor's apprentice

Allow some time for students to prepare their role._presentation (i.e., abOut a day before their presenta-tion is made). Each presentation should be no longer ,than five minutes.

The remainder of the class will serve,as the panelof judges. Each judge is allowed/154A each of the roleplayers one question.

Distribute copies of Table to ,Aid in Decision7Making for judg.es to fill out 'during the presentation.

The scores will be used to help the judges decidewho should receive the telepho i e. However, remindthe student judges that those cate ories or factors list-ea are only four considerations ouj of many. The stu-dents may find other important faitors that need to beconsidered. Also, each of the four factors are given thesame weighting; yet it is possible that some factorsshould be weighted more heavily than others. The dif.ficulty in attempting to quantify a decision should bepointed out to the students. This is particularly signifi-cant in light of the increasing number of decisions thatare made today through the use of coniputers that, inturn, depend on certain established objective criteria,such as in credit ratings, college admission, automo-bile insurance rates, etc.

In some cases, the judges may find that the per-son who receives the highest score may not necessar-ily be the person whom theSt feel has the greater needfor a telephone.

Have each judge submit his/her secret ballot, apiece of paper on which the title of one person ig wrh-ten. Tally the votes and anti-Once the title of the per-son receiving the highest number of votes.

. At this point determine if the judges agree withthe selection. If not, inquire as to their reasons fordisagreement and what criteria 'they used in making

' theitjudgments. How might the)/ wish to change the,scoring system? *as tteir selection representative of

, the population whb were among tbe first telephcmeusers? What values were held to be of higher priority,by the judges in making the selection? ,

48

\STUDENT-HANDOUT EIG T.\ .

Activity 7: Who Will Get a Telephone?

TABLE TO AID IN DECISION MAKING

TitleNumberof Calls'hilade

PersonalNeed of

BusinessNeed of

Will CallsBenefitOthers

TotalScore-----Phone -Phone

1. VegetableWarehouser

2. Scientist .

3. Fire Chief4

4. Housewife9

5. Worker ,

6. Pantie r _ _ _ _

7. NewsperEditor

8. Butcher

9. Sheriff

0. Student

1. Tailor'sApprentice

.

Under each of the headings, determine the importance of the telephone to each oftlie personslisted. A one (I) to five (5) scoring scale will be used for each category.

1 = least (number, need, benefit)2 = lesser (number, need, benefit)3 = moderate (number, need, benefit)

= great (number, need, benefit)5-= greatest (number, need, benefit),

Each person shall receive a score frdaone (1), to five (5) for each of the four'categories. Whenall the role presentations have been made and the table has been completed, add across the tableto obtain a total score for each of the eleven persons. The higher scores would indicate thepersons who have most need of a telephone.

39

a

Guide To_Section II:The Computer

4

Overview_

In the preceding section, students had the opportunityto explore some of the many changes brought about bythe telephone communications. They also used somefutures forecasting techniques to demonstrate howsuch techniques could be employed in decision ihak-nig. However, in the preceding case, hindsight was asignificant advantage. In this section the students willhave to rely on their own interpretations of future im-pacts of computer technology.

It is hoped from the previous exercise the"studentswill have gained a degree of awareness the multipleeffects and the major changes in lifestyle broughtabout by the availability, of direct voice communica-tions over long distances. It involved changes in howwe,conduct business, how we maintain social interac-tions, how we gain aria transmit information, how wecontrol or direct activities from distant locations, etc.

The application of computer technology may bringabout other types of changes. Some of these changescan be predicted with greater confidence than 'others.Some other changes may be totally unforeseen. Thestudents will now vonsiner a few of the possiblechoices ana the implications and consequences of newdevelopments in computers and communications.

Reading 4:The History of the ComputerSummary'This reading introduces tile technical development ofthe computer. Additionally, it points'out how our infor-mation needs and task requirements stimulated thesearch and development of computer systems with in-creased capabilities.

a

Student Objectives

To gain an understanding#computer technologyfrom an historical perspective.

To gain a knowledge of computer applications.

Comments and St;giestions

To help students become aware-of howcomputeiivartake in the many facets of our daily liVes, havessiu-dents bring in examples illustrating an activity wherecomputers intervened. These items could.be put to:-gether into an interesting classroom wall mintage. 'Some examples might include:

.

address labels,(magazines, circulars)school scheduiesneWspapers typeset by computers"personalized" forth letterslabels on grocery itemsticketsprint outs .punch cardschecksmerchandise price tags

The above examples of computer activity can becategorized in tehns of..activityie.g., accounting andbilling, mailing, information storage, inventorying,scheduling,'efc.). Discuss with the class those activi-ties and how computers help to conserve human en-ergy and time. Have them also conlider some of thepossible and potential problems that could arise. Howmight they be resolved? Have they or their parentsever encountered computer errors? What might havebeen the source of that.error?

Activity 8: Scenacio: A Computer in Your Life

Description

The "computer on a chip" has revolutionized theworld of computing and communications. Microcom-puters are now found in the average home in manydifferent forms, and their future applications offer ex-citing changes in the way we live and work. In thisactivity students will describe in a scenario ways theymight use home computers. A sample scenario is in-cluded inghe introduction;

Student Objectives

To project lifestyle changes that result from theuse of the computer.

To dellop a scenario forecasting how they willpersonally use and benefit from new computer applica-tions.

42

Student Activities

Each student will write a one or two page sce-nario using onc of the scenario formats suggested.

The completed scenarios are then read to theclass and discussed..

Procedures and Suggestions

New computer applications seem to appear onthe scene daily. It may thus be useful for the studentsto survey some of thenew products on the marketbefore writing their scenario. News magazines, ads,and computer hobbiest magazines are good sources forinnovative ideas.

Having the students share their Scenario is an im-portant aspect of this exercise. In this way they areexposed to a wider range of potential uses. Also, they /

51

cim begin to see differences in personal preferences,and opinions abouf computers.

The students .might form-small groupi to.readtheir scenarios to one another. Afterwards, they sum-marize their-computer uses in the form, of a list forpresentation to the entire class.

The following aN'some suggested questions forclass discussion. .

.

.

What were some of the major changes in *-style?Were the tasks performed'by the computermore Of a necessity or a luxury?What computer applications identified are cur-rentWavailable? Which ones were not?What new developments/inventions areneeded before the forecast becomes a reality?

Reading 5: Computers +Communications = Compunitations

Summary

This reading draws the analogy between the develop-ment *of telephony and computer communications.Both involve a system of interconnecting networks.While numerous computer applications have beenfotecasfed, the extent to which these services will be-come' available on a widegpread, low-cost basis willdepend upon the development of interconnections.How 'the, networks are establiihed raises a number of

S.

economidpolitical, social and philosophical quesrtions.

Student Objectives

To gain an understanding that computer netwOrksare a fusion of two lines of development computer

4 technology and communications technology...". To gain an understanding of some of the problemsinherent in the development of computer iriformationsystems and communication via computers.

. ; \..r

Comments and'Smestions .,

Since.the copcepts presented in this reading arecomplex, additional class discussion is recommended.To kelp students understand the concept of computernetworks, trace the processes of data input and re-trieval of computer sysiems familiar to the students.These systems' might include those used in

banking*grocery check outs ,airline ticket saleshotel reservationsstudent's class schedulesThe network might best be illustrated in the form

,of a diagrain.Have the udents find out how computer termi-

nals art current y connected to central terminals.

Activity 9: What. Are Your Computer Forecasts --: A Delphi Survey

Student Handout 9: Whai are YourIrnputer Forecasts

.,

..f

Students will conduct two rounds of dr! Delphi Sur-vey which seeks their opinions on computer applica-tions. They will forecast the occurrence of an event.and indicate the desirability of that event. The resultsOf this survey will reflect the class' intuitive estimationof computer development based on squdents -knowl-edge of computers.

Overview

-Stutient.Objectives

lb identify their opinions regarding computer de-VelOpments and lifestyle changes, 4 lb examine their own reasons for making particu-

Or choices

Procedifivs and Suggestions

Round one

Distribute a copy of the survey to, each studentand review -the procedure outlined in the Student'sGuide. Remind.the students to work individually.\

For each statemenVitem students are tO\, 1) estimate the time the event will ocCpr

2) indicate the desirability of the eveni\,

3) list some 'visible effecti that may take \place

4) provide a reason for their decision/conclusion

As in the previous DelPhi, a panel moderator \villcollect the codipleted survey forms and summarize heresults.

'aft

1) the responses are tabulated on a new,Surve

,

form. This form should be labelled Sum-mary Form, Delphi,IRound One.

co 2) Total the number of responses for each col-umn and determine the Point of majorityconsensus. That is, did on half or more ofthe panel members select t e same time in-terval?

Example:\-

Between Between Between Beyond1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 , 2010

\*W. 0 144111 0 ti-1-1.*1-14.-14-11. 1. C

The majority, in the above example, indicated that 'the event would most likely occur between the years2000 and 2010.

3) For the written tesponses, list some of the ef---fects/reasons most frequently cited.

, .

4) Ptesent thesummaiy for the class to examine.

Round Tivo

Distribute a second cypy of die survey for thestudents to complete.

If the students decide to change the response theymade in the first round, they should also.indicate thereason(s) for the change. ,,:'

The completed forms are again collected andsummarized in the same manne as previously,described, in Summary Form, Delpl Round ?Ivo.

I

Discussion of Results

T.he'results of the two rcunds are displayed forthe class to compare. The results may either be pro-jected on a screen or copied on the chalkboard.

Some suggested discussion questions are found inthe Student's Guide.

The results of Round Twy canbe translated into anarrative which describes the panel's forecast of com-puter developments and su6sequent changes.

441

Reading 6: The Computer:Friend or Foe?

Sumniary

This reading briefly touches upon some of the-con:cerns and critic&ns o coinputer applications. A num-ber of cries fear the loss of personal privacy, the e&fects of computer errors andthe detunnaniiing aspectsof machines petforming our work or makingdecisions.

Student Objectives

"To gain an awareness of possible adverse effectsof computer Applications.

TO recognize the need for safeguards in computerusage.

Comments and Suggestions'

After 3tudents have completed this reading, they,may wish to explore the benefits ands risks associated

awith a particular application in greater detaileThe"brainstorming': technique can be effectively usectinthis instance to elicit itudent ideas. lake, for exaniple, "an application such as "shopping by compiuterr-

- Divide the class intotwo groups. One groupwill present the advantages; the other grcup,the disadvantages.The groups will- take their turn alterna tely; amember from one group will present one idea,

.then a member of the other group will presentanother idea.Contimie the process until each group membcrhas offered an idea and 'all ideas appear to beexhausted.The kideas shOuld be listed on the board, andthen evaluated at the end of the brainstormingsession. -

. 53

r\ STUDENT HANDOUT NINE

Delphi Survey 2: What Are Your Computer Fore asts?

In Your OpinionDesirable is Th

i-lows?

When Do You ThinkThis Will Occur?

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What Are Some ofthe Effects?

Explain Why You Came <. to This Conclusion

ADVANCES IN COMPUTERS1. Computers will understand human speech& respond to spoken instructions.

2. Computers will learn from experience &correct their own mistakes.

\\

,

\

.

3. Computers will perform thinking andplanning tasks.

4. Computers will operate motor vehicles,trains, subways & ships without need ofhuman operators.

FUTURE CHANGES1. Every household will have a computer.

2. Nearly everyone will know how toprogram a computer.

,

3. Most courses in schools will be taught bycomputers.

4. We will use computers to decide where tolive, who to marry, what job to take, how tospend money. i

5. If one wants information about anotherperson, one can obtain it from a computerdata bank.

6. With computerized banking & exchange ofmoney electronically, cash will not beneeded.

. ,

7. A mority of people will spend most ofthe day t home. .

5 4 55

\

,

1

N.

Activity 10: Exploring Computer Effects

Overview

The Futures Wheel is a technique used to ekplore theconsequences tf an idea, trend or decision. The ef-fects are displayed in a graphic style which permitsone to

centri idea/trend is entered in a circle in the cen-pine multiple interactions and "spin-offs."

ter of the paper. Spokes extend from the central circleand end with a circle in which is entered a 1st ordereffect. The process is repeated with 2nd order effectsradiating from the 1st; 3rd from the 2nd and so on.

The Futures Wheel

Student Objective

To study the consequences/effects of an idea/trend ,

: Student Activities

Students working in small groups will select oneof the ideas suggested or use one of their own to com-plete a Futures Wheel.

Procedures and Suggestions

Review with the students the instructions and ex-ample shown in the Student's Guide.

If available, have the students use large sheets ofpaper (i.e, newiprint). This will permit the members ofthe group to work on the wheel simultaneously.

Reading 7:-Computers by the Numbers

Summary

This reading summarizes the technological changes incomputers during the past twenty years that have re-stilted in lower costs and greater availability.

Student Objectives'

To examine some data on the growth of computerusage and factors contributing to the growth.

To gain an awareness of some of the implicationsI

of increased computer usage.

Comments and Suggestions -

Have students bring in articles or advertisementsfor mini-computers currently on the market. Considerto whom these ads are directed and suggested applica-tions.

Students may a\lso wish to compare the price andcapacity of different computers.

Activity 11: Forecasting Computer Trends: An Exercise in Trend Analysis

Materials needed: graph paper

Overview

Students will graph data provided and use trend ex-trapolation techniques to make forecasts regardingnumbers of computers, storage size, cost and comput-ing speed.

Student Objectives

To examine trends in computer development us-ing the trend extrapolation technique.

To gain experience in graphingTo compare data on numbers of computers, stor-

age size, computing cost and computing speed.To consider the implications of future computer

development.

Student Activities

Students will construct four graphs using the datagiven.

They will determine the trend curve for eachgraph and extrapolate that curve tO the year 1990.

46

\ Procedures and Suggestions\ It may be helpful to review with the studentsgra hing procedures the trend extrapolation tech-niqu . For example, Graph 1 might be completed as aclass exeicise while the subsequent graphs are com-pleted in ividually.

Comp, ..,-..x technology has made ten-fold or one-hundred fold leaps in a few short years. Graphing thedata on a logarithmic scale would, of course, be mucheasier if students 'he had experience with highermathematics. HoweveG this not being the case, themore conventional methOlkwill have to suffice. It is,therefore, necessary to maiN sure that the studentsconstruct a scale appropriate for-the data (especially.for Graph 4).

After completion of each graph, have the stu-dents compare their forecasts. Note the differencesand the possible reasons for the differences. Have stu-dents consider whether their forecasts are possible.(When a trend curve is extended the curve might ap-proach zero or infinity. However, this might not be arealistic situation due to physical or economic limita-tions.

56

Activity 12: What are Your Future Visions? A Communications Scenario

Overview

In this scenario writing activity students will writeabout a future possibility in communications. This sce-nario should incorporate some of the information andtrends discussed in the readings and activities. In addi-tion to creating an imaginative or innovative forecast,students should also reflect on the trade-offs involvedand the impacts and consequences of that possible fu-ttne.

Student Objectives

To consider a future possibility and to provide adetailed account of that possibility in the form of ascenario.

To synthesize prior information for inclusion inthe scenario.

To consider present trends and their implicationfor the future.

Student Activities

Individually or in small groups students will writea communications scenario based oti their knowledgeof computer applications, teleprocessing and telecom-

Some Concluding RemarksIn this module the students have been briefly exposedto some of the techniques used by future forecasters.Using these techniques, we can perhaps catchglimpses of possible futures. However, the more valu-able lesson students can gain is the awareness thatforecasts, even by experts, should be considered asone of many possible alternatives. Forecasts are per-haps most useful to alert one to possible consequencesor impacts.

There is no technique which predicts the future withabsolute certainty. For example, weather forecastingwhich now employs some of the most sophisticatedinstrumentation such as satellite monitoring, radar,etc. can make accurate forecasts only within hours ofthe event for a given city.

Another example is the elaborate and complex coni-puter simulation model of global trends developed forthe Club of Rome project by Professor DennisMeadows and his team, and presented in the bookLhnits to Growth. Projecting population, economic,industrial, resource pollution, etc. growth since 1900,the MIT team predicted an inevitable crisis in ourworld system with amine, disease and total collapse

munications. The scenario should reflect their per-sonal preference regarding computer usage and in-clude a critical analysis of the implications of theirforecast.

The completed scenario should be shared withthe entire class. This will perhaps stimulate furtherdiscussions on computers and future communications.

Procedures and Suggestions

Review with the students the main characteristicsof scenario writing. Remind them that a good way tostart is to examine a current trend and follow one ormore alternative directions suggested by the trend(e.g., the trend of decreasing costs of home com-puters, the trend towards simplifying computer pro-gramming; the trend towards greater use of communi-cations satellites.)

Encourage the students to be creative and stretchtheir imaginations. The scenario need not be longerthan two to three pages, but students should includesupportive information about a future time. (i.e., Whatdecisions and new developments are prerequisite forthe future they envision?)

of industry. Their pessimistic prediction calls for a haltin economic growth by 1975 in order to head off disas-ter. Their suggested solution has not been heeded and,in fact, has been vigorously challenged by critics.Moreover, we have passed some of the years whencertain of their dislocations predicted, have not cometo fruition. What this points out is that forecasts areonly as good as the data selected and the assumptionsone makes. It is, therefore, necessary to question theperspective taken by forecasters in making certain as-sumptions, the interacting factors that 41.e viewed tobe important, and how adequately they have weighedthe variables.

Our hope is that the students who have worked withsome of the forecasting methodologies in these mate-

lials have gained some insights. Unexpected new de-velopments can lead to uncharted directions, but thesedirections will be largely determined by many differentdecisions, based on what is valued and considered de-sirable. In their future decision-making capacity, per-haps our students will be more able to deal with themultiplicity of variables with increased sensitivity tothe value issues that are an integral part of each deci-sion.

47

Selected Bibliography: Moral - Social - Ethical Development

A. THEORYBrody, G. H. A social learning explanation of moral development.

Contemporan Educational Psyc Wog". 1978.3(1). 20-26.'Gruber, Howard and J. J. Voneche. The essential Piaget. New York

Basic Books. 1977.Hersh, R. H.. Pao litto, D. and J. Reimer. Promoting moral gran th.

from Ptaget to Kohlberg. New York: l.ongman, Inc.. 1979.Kohlberg. Lawrence. Moral Stages and Moralwation, the dognitive-

development approach In Thomas Lickona (Ed.), Moraldevelopment and behavior New York. Holt. Rinehart andWinston, 1976

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Piaget. Jean To understand Is to invent. New York: Penguin Books.1976

The moral judgntent of the child New York: Free Press.1965.

Smith. M E Moral reasoning: its relationship to logical thinking androle taking Journal of Moral Education. 1978.8(1). 41-49.

M . Lambert, N. and E Turiel Moral development andsocialization. Boston: Allyn Bacon Press, 1978.

B. RESEARCH

Blatt, Moshe M. and Lawrence Kohlberg. The effect of classroommoral discussion upon children% level of moral judgment.Journal of moral education. 1975, 4(2). 129-161.

Brown. Roger and Roger J. Herrnstein. Moral reasoning and conduct.In Psychology. Roston: Little, Brown & Co., 1978, 287-340.

Dell. P. F and G. J. Junkovic. Moral structure and moral content. theirrelations hip.to personahty. Journal of Youth and Aclokscence.1978. 7, 63-74.

Rest. James R. Developmental psychology as a guide to value educa-tion a review of Kohlbergian programs'. Revteit of Educa-tional Research, 1974. 44. 241-59.

Tomlinson-Keasey. Carol and Charles B. Keasey The mediating role ofcognitive development in moral judgment Cluld Development.1974;45, 291-298

C EDUCATIONFenton. Edwin Moral education the research findings Sot tal

rum. April 1976. 189-193Kelly. A V and M. Downey Moral education: theorr and prat tic e

Scranton PA. Harper and Row. 1978Kohlberg. Lawrence The cognitive-developmental approach to moral

education Pht Delta Kappan. 1975. 56(10). 670-677Collected papers on moral development and moral

eclutation Cambridge Harvard University Laboratory forHuman Development. 1973

Kohlberg, Lawrence and Carol Gilligan The adolescent as a philoso-pher the discovery of self in a post-conventional world DaedaIns, Fall 1971. 1051-1086

48

Kohlberg, Lawrence and Rochelle Mayer. Development as thc aim oreducation. Harvard Educational Revint, 1972. 42(11), 449-96.

Kohlberg. Lawrence and Elliot Turiel Moral development and moraleducation. In G. Lesser ( Ed .). Psyc hology ancleclucatiomil pray-me. Chicago: Scott Foresman. (1971). 410-465.

Lickona. Thomas. Helping teachers to become moraleducators. Theoryinto Practice. 1978. 17(3). 258-266.

Sharf. Peter ( Ed ). Readings in moral ecluc anon Minn.. Winston Press,. 1978. 1

Sprinthall. Norman A. and Ralph L. Mosher (Eds.). Value developmentas the aim of education. Schenectady. Ncw York: CharacterResearch Press, 1978.

Values Concepts and Techniques. National Education Assoc, Distribu-tion Center. The Academic Bldg.. Saw Mill Road. West Haven.CT. 06516. 1976. 312 pp.

D. DILEM MA DISCUSSIONS AND SIMULATIONS IN 1HECLASSROOMBeyer. Barry. Conducting moral discussions in thc chissroom. Social

Education. April 1976. 195-202.Blatt. Moshe. Colby. Ann and Betsy Speicher-Dubin Hypothetical

dilemma% for use in claisroom moral dnettscioli. Cambridge:Harvard University. Moral Education Researcl Foundation,1974.

Boulogne. J. Simulation games in moral education. limitScience Teachers, 1978, 13(3). 202-203.

Fenton. Edwin: Colby Ann and Betsy Speicher-Dubin Developingmoral dilemma% for social studies c la%w%. Cambri ge: HarvardUniversity. Moral Education Research f-oundatio . 1974.

Galbraith. Ronald E. and Thomas M. Jones. Moral awning: ateaching handbook Jur aclopting Kohlberg to the\classroom.Anoka. Minn.: Greenhas en Press. 1976.

Lockwood. Alan. Moral rea.wning. the value uf life. Public IssuesSeries. Columbus. Ohio: American Education Publications,Education Center. 1972.

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49

APPENDIX

Stages of Moral Development

PRECONVENT1ONAL LEVELAt this level the child is responsive to cultural rules and labels of good and bad, right and wrong. but interprets the labels in terms of either the physkal or the

hedonistic comsequences of action (punishment. reward, e xchange of favors) or in terms of the physical power of those whoenunciate thc rules and labels. The level

is divided into the following two stages:

STAGE I

T he punishment and obedience orientation. The physical consequences of acuon determine as goodness orbadness regardless of th,e human meaning or value of

t hese consequences. Avoidance of punishment and unquestioning deference to po we r are valued in thcir own right, n ot in terms of respect foran underlying moral

order supported by punishment and authority (the latter being stage 4).

STAGE 2

The instrumental relativist onentation. Right action consists of that which instumentally satisifies one's own needs and occasionally thc needs of others Human

relations are viewed in terms as,those of the market place. Elements of fairness. of reciprocity, and of equal sharingare present, but theyare always interpreted ina

physical, pragrnauc way. Reciprocity is a matter of "you scratch my back and Ill scratch yours," not of, loyalty, gratitude, or justice

CONVENTIONAL LEVEL

At this level, mai ntakrung the expectations of the individual's family, group or nation is perceived as valuable inits own right. regardless of immediate and obvious

consequences. Thc attitude is not on, Jne of conformity to personal expectations and social order but of loyalty to it. of actively maintaining. supporting, and

justifying the order, and of identifying with the persons or group involved in it. At this level, there are the following two stages.

STAGE 3

T he interpersonal concordance of "good boy -nice gar orientation. Good behavior is that which pleases orhelps others and is approved by them There is much

conforrnit y to stereotypical images of what is majonty or "naturarbehavior. Behavior is frequently judged by intention- "he means well" becomes important for

the first time. One earns approval by being "nice."

STAGE 4

T he law and order onentauon. There is onernation toward authonty, fixed rules, and the maintenance of social order Right behavior consists of doing one's duty,

showing respect for authonty. and maintaining the given social order for its own sake.

POSTCONVENTIONAL OR PRINCIPLED LEVEL

At this level, there is a ckar effort to define moral values and pnnciples which have validity and application apart from the authority of the groups or persons

holding these pnnciples and apart from the individual's own identification with these groups This level again has two stages, which are as follows:

STAGE 5

The social-contract legahsne onentation. generally wah utilitarian overtones. Right action tends to be definedin terms of general individual rights and standards

which have been critically examined and agreed upon by the whole society There is a clear awareness of the relativism of personal values and opinions and a

corresponding emphasis upon procedural rules for reach ing consensus. Aside from what is constitutiona Ily anddemocratically agreed upon, thc right is a matter of

personal "values" and "opinion." The result is an emphasis upon the possibility of changing law in termsof rational considerations of social utility (rather than

freezing it in terms of stage 4 "law and orde(). Outside thc legal realm, free agreement and contract is thc bindingelement of obligations.

STAGE 6The universal ethical prmciple one= non. Right is defined by the decision of conscience di accord with self-chosen ethica) principles appealing to logical

comprehensiveness. universality. and conmsteni.y. These pnncipks are abstract and ethical (the Golden Rule. the categorical imperative); they arc not concrete

moral rules like the Ten Commandments. Instead, these are universal pnnciples of justice. of the reciprocity and equality of human rights, and of respect for the

dignity of human beings as individual persons

Lawrence Kohlberg Stages of mow! dev elopment as a basis fur moral education In C M. Beck. B.S Crittendon. and E V Sullivan (Eds )Moraleducation

New York Newman Press. 1971, 86-88

50 60