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Lewis, Morgan; And OthersFuture Influences on Vocational Education. SpecialPublication Series No. 46.Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center forResearch in Vocational Education.Office of Vocational and Adult Education (ED),Washington, DC.[85]300-83-001625p.; For related documents, see ED 240 269 and ED245 061. Printed on colored paper.National Center Publications, Box F, National Centerfor Research in Vocational Education, 1960 KennyRoad, Columbus, OH 43210-1090 (SN46--$2.75).Information Analyses (070)

MF01/PC01 kdlus Postage.Automation; Business Cycles; *Economic Climate;Educational Finance; Educational Planning;Educational Policy; *Enrollment; Federal Government;*Futures (of Society); Labor Force; *PopulationTrends; Postsecondary Education; Robotics; SecondaryEducation; *Technological Advancement; *LocationalEducationOffice Automation

This booklet provides a brief overview of some of themajor trends most likely to influence vocational education during theremainder of the 1980s. It is directed to all vocational educators,particularly planners and policymakers, who want a betterunderstanding of the conditions under which their programs willoperate. It considers the nation's economic and political climate,including these influences on the dollars available for vocationaleducation: the stability of the dollar, phases of the business cycle,and competing demands for public funds. The iri 1 Jf technology,especially robotics and office automation, is eva. Lle. Demographicchanges in the population and labor force to which vo ':naleducation must adapt are examined, and job growth and vt'Alings areprojected. Trends in enrollments and funding for vocational educationare then summarized. Finally, thee implications for vocationaleducation are advanced: shifts in curriculum emphasis, changes ininstructional methods, and the redirection of vocational educationand of the content of jobs due to increasing advances in newtechnology. (YLB)

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FOREWORD

This booklet provides a brief overview of some of the major trends mostlikely to influence vocational education durng the remainder of the 1980s.

It is directed to all vocational educators, particularly planners and policymakers, who want a better understanding of the conditions under which theirprograms will operate.

This booklet is based upon two reports prepared at the National Centerfor Research in Vocational Education with support from the Office ofVocational and Adult Education, U.S. Department of Education: Anticipatti.gFunny? Influences on Vocational Education and Robotics and Office Automa-tion: ln'plications for Vocational Education. The full repwts of these studieshave been submitted to the ER IC Clearinghouse on Adult, Career, andVocational Education at the National Center. For availability information,contact the National Center's ER IC acquisitions coordinator at 614486.3655or 800.848 4815 (toll free outside Ohio).

This overview was developed by staff from the Evaluation and PolicyDivision, directed by N. L. McCeslin, and from the Personnel Developmentand Field Services Division, directed by Lucy Thrane. Those most responsibl'were Morgan Lewis, Jeannette Fraser, Paul Unger, Dennis Mathias, and RodSpain. A preliminary draft was reviewed by Joseph F. Coates, President,J. F. Coates, Inc., Washington, DC and Robert C. Harris, Advisor to thePresident, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana. Judy Balogh conductedthe final edit and Sherri Trayser was the word processor operator.

Robert E. TaylorExecutive DirectorNational Center for Research

in Vocational Education

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INTRODUCTION

Virtually every indicator suggests that the remaining years of the20th century will be a period of rapid change. Efforts to increase thecompetitiveness of America.. products in international markets and thewidespread application of computers in production processes andcommunications should result in unprecedented rates of technologicalchange These changes will affect the skills needed in the labor forceand the training that should be provided for these skills.

Society will also have to adjust to the aging of the population andto reduced numbers of entry-level workers. Vocational educators mustrespond to these developments, and need information enabling themto anticipate the changes and the types of responses that areappropriate.

In such a period of transition, it is difficult to know how best toprepare young people and to retrain adults for rewarding employmentin a future whose structure can only be dimly perceived. As difficult asthe task is, planners and policymakers must make decisions based onthe best available information. This report designed to assist in thisdecision- making process

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Federal Deficits

Default onForeign Loans

f,s-t

Thy 1980s may be the dawn of a bright economicphi fur the United States, if

budget deficits are controlled

foreign countries do not default on loans

iureiiln trade illibdidflCt'S are overcom'

*protectionist policies are avoided

2

THE NATIONAL CLIMATE

The Nation's economic and political climate influences the deliv-ery of vocational education. The stability of the dollar, phases of thebusiness cycle, and competing demands for public funds all affect thedollars available for vocational education. In addition, the emphasesof federal legislative policies directly affect who and what is taught invocational education

The United States's economic position weakened in the early,10s Several interrelated factors contributed to this relative

weakening'

After World War II, while Europe and Japan were rebuilding theirindustries with new equipment, the United States followed busi-ness and labor practices that hampered our ability to competesuccessfully in many international markets.

After 1973 the rising cost of oil contributed to domestic inflationand the flow of dollars to oil producing countries.

U S trade policy, rather than encouraging competition and thechanging configuration in the manufacturing industries, hasresponded by establishing protectionist import policies and sub-s)dies to dying industries

Several business indexes are predicting that the current expansionin the economy will begin to slow:

The real gross national product is expected to grow at an annualrate of 6 1 percent in the first quarter of 1984, and drop to 3.2 per-cent by the end of the year.

Inflation is expected to remain at moderate levels while the for-eign trade deficit remains the major drag on economic growth.

In the next 6 to 12 months, the dollar will decline in value. easingY)r110 prossures on U S exports.

Unless the unprecedented increases in the federal budget deficitcan be controlled. the economy is likely to worsen considerablyin 1985

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Defense and education are two of the few 'controllable" items indie federtil budget. Many other expenditures such as Social Security,Medicare, Welfare, and Veterans Benefits are entitlements guaranteedby law.

The Reagan Administration has clearly placed a high priority onstrengthening our current levels of defense preparedness:

In 1982. 6 1 percent of the gross national product was devoted todefense, the largest percentage since 1972 when the Vietnam Warwas winding down

Strengthening the skills of individuals in the military, as well asthose employed by defense suppliers, is critical to the defensegoals of the Nation

The U S Departments of 'Defense and Education are encouragingcooperation between defense firms and vocational education.

increasing national defense expenditures will require more skilledworkers in defense-related industries.

With several agencies competing for limited federal dollars, edu-cation may well be at a disadvantage when compared to theheeds of the military

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Present economic and political activities signal several trends forthe near future that are likely to affect vocational education:

The United States must continue to stme for competitiveness itworld markets

The Federal Government will be hesitant to increase funding fordomestic programs. The large increase in he defense budget toimprove our national security has limited t, e funds available foreducation and many other social programs

Congress views serving special needs populations as one of theprimary feJeral roles of vocational education Vocational educa-tion should upgrade and retrain displaced workers as well asserve groups who have special problems obtaining satisfactoryemployment. These areas of concern will continue to influencefederal vocational education legislation in the future.

A stronger emphasis on scholastic programs at the secondarylevel will cause students to study more mathematics, science, andlanguage With less opportunity to study vocational skills at thesecondary level, more students are likely to obtain occupationalpreparation in community colleges and technical institutes afterhigh school

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DISPLACEMENT EFFECTS

6). --50,000 workers

ESTIMATES OF ROBOT USAGE

Industrial robots are projected to increase from a total of about7,000 in 1983 to hetv'een 50,000 to 100,000 in 1990. Generally,edch robot replaces three workers.

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THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY

The 19F0s are a time of rapid technological change. Technologicalinroads have been forged in four roajor fields biomedicaligenetics,energy information technologies. and manufacturing processing.Changes in the skills needed in the work force due to office automa-ton (information technology) and robotics (manufacturing processes)are expected to create training opportunities for vocational education.but rot to the extent some forecasters anticipate.

Robotics

In 1983. 5.000 to /.000 robots were in use in the United States;projections of r000t usage in 1990 range from 50,000 to 100,000.

Generally one ()hot replaces three workers

Not all d!splaced works -ors lose their jobs. many are retrained ortrarisferred

During the rernainder of the 1980s, little demand is expected .fornewiy train(.1 tc.)hotics technicians

Fotir major factors Acil affect the rate of adoption of robots mindustry

Pre.* of labor versus capital available to he invested inewlir:ment

Cost of equipment

Htt!rfacing capabilities Of automated equipment

thr. next several years

their rttc0:10ii about offering programs for robotics technicians.

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Office Automation

ca Office automation equipment changes rapidly:

- Currently, the move is avvay from stand alone (unifunctional)to integrated (multifunctional) word processing systems dueto (1) cost, reduction in use of multifunctional systems, and(2) increased efficiency and capability between equipment,

Today employers find an influx of personal computers intothe office due to (1) multifunction operational capability, (2)reduction in cost, and (3) interfacing capability.

Offices dre just beginning to be affected by advances in informationuicl communications technologies. By the end 3f the decade, most office

many skiiied trades will require a basic knowledge of computers.

Several factors influence the diffusion of officeequipment

Lack of standardization of office automation equipment

Cost of equipment

Technological advancements

Capital investment required to convert I) an automated office

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man.cmaammcsclu......11...

Shortage of qualified personnel

Reductions in corporate training budgets

Office automation will not cause a major decrease in the dernSnd

for secretaries.

Traditionally, word processing training has been conducted byexperienced personnel in individual fir ms. With reductions in

office automation training budgets, new sources of training mustbe sought.

Word processing operators in the future will need skill training inbasic computer literacy, higher order analysis (including com-prehension and logical thinking), in addition to keyboard skilltraining

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912

LABOR FORCE DISTRIBUTION OF YOU H AND WOMEN

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5 million youth(age 16 24)

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I ABOR FORCE

Vocational education must adapt to the demographic changes inthi- reputation and the labor force

The age. sex. and minority representation of future vocational stu-dents and the composition of the future labor force will change:

Vocational education will serve fewer young people who are 14 to24 years old Fewer youn' workers will enter the labor force.

Because of higher birth rates in racial/ethnic minority groups,there will be larger proportions of minority group young people inthe high school postsecondary age ranges.

In 1970 38 percent of the nation's labor force was female: 42 per -cent was female in 1980, and 46 percent is projected by 1990.

;ri 1970. 43 percent of all women living in the United States overago '16 were participating in the labor force; 52 percent partici-pated in 1980. and approximately 60 percent participation is pro-wctvd by 1990

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1990 1995

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LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES BY SEX, BY YEAR

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Job Growth and Openings

Total civilian employment is projected to increas9 25 percentfrom 1982 to .15. from a total of 102 million to 128 millionworkers Industrial demand for these workers will var.,

The major source of job openings will be replacement of workersin existing jobs. not growth of new jobs

Service industries will be the main source of the employmentincreases

The proportion of the work force in manufacturing will remainstable

High-technology industries will grow faster than average without,however. being a major source of employment opportunities in

the 1980s

Retail sales workers have the highest projected average annualjob openings from 1980 to 1990

Auto workers will experience the heaviest displacement due tor 0bo tics

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TRENDS WITHIN VOCATIONAL EDUCATION

Enrollments and funding for vocational progri.ms increased stead-ily ov,,r the past decade At the secondary level. vocational educationenrollments increased throughout the 1970s despite the decline in thetotal niinIner of secondary students aher 1975 Most of the increpse infu, sing came from state and local sources, as federal fundingremained almost constant

SECONDARY SCHOOL. ENROLLMENT

1970 1975 1980 1985 19

VOCATIONAL

Seconddr y SCInin enroiiments reached a peak in 1975 and areOl OptCtf'd to def.:line until the mid 1990s. Enrollments in secondaryv0(.411°11,1! education increased throughout the 1970s. Continued

wpm unlikely in the 1980s.

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These ehanry-!s will have a direct effect on vocational education:

Secondary school students will decline by 2.5 million between1980 and 1990

In the future. potential for increasing cooperative enrollmentsSeinTIS to exist

Total expenditures for education have more than doubled duringthe period 1969-1981, increasing from $70 billion to an estimated$200 billion

After peaking in 1975 at 8 percent, total expenditures for educa-tion have slowly decreased to an estimated 6.8 percent of thegross national product in 1981.

Vocational education expenditures as a percentage of total edu-cation exnenditures increased during the 1970s from 3.2 percentin school year 1971-72 to 4.1 percent in school year 1979-80.

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IMPLICATIONS FOR 11-1E. FUTURE

IMPLICATIONS FOR VOCATIONAL EDUCATION

Societal economic. and labor force trends will directly affect voca-tional education Vocational leaders. in an attempt to maintain a qual-ity education for vocational students. wil; have to adjust the,r programsto accommodate the coming changes. Most directly affected by thesetrends will he courses that students choose to study. how instruction isdelivered and equipment needed in the classrooms

Shifts in curriculum emphasis will occur at all educational levels:

Communication computation. and science skills will receivemore emphasis in secondary schools. leaving less time for voca-tional courses

'',pf,( upational skills are likely to receive less emphasis atPIP (sP(i)rlf1;lry level

More nccupational training will he obtained at the postsecondaryieve,

Upriradind and retraining workers will receive additional empha-particularly at the postsecondary level.

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Instructional methods at both the secondary aid postsecondarylevels will change

The mode of instructional delivery will shift. Instructors will movefrom being deliverers of information to managers of learning as aresult of the increased use of electronic instructional equipment.

Learning may take place in more diverse settings. Communityand employment centers will serve as satellite schools, particu-larly for established workers seeking upgraded skills.

The increasing advanc 3s in new technology will redirect voca-tional education and the content of jobs:

High equipment costs and rapid technological advances willrequire more participation from employers for vocational studenttraining The difficulty for vocational schools keeping equipmentup to date, linked with the difficulty of industry finding workerstrained to operate this equipment, will force a new alliancebetween vocational education and industry.

Although technological change will be rapid, it will affect jobs inan evolutionary rather than revolutionary way. Changes will takeplace gradually, modifying existing jobs. Only occasionally willcompletely new lobs emerge.

The coming years will place many demands on vocational edu-cation It will be called upon to conduct traditional entry-level instruc-tion, to help ensure that students have basic communication and comp-utational skills, to play an expanded role in training the disadvantaged,and to retrain and upgrade more adult workers than ever before.

At the same time, vocational education will be called upon onceagain to justify its claim as a legitimate component of secondary edu-cation The challenges are many, and many program adjustments willhe needed Nevertheless, the broad support that vocational educationreceives from students. parents, employers, school board members,and legislators indicates it has served a wide variety of needs in thepiro ,inn} it can continue to do so in the future

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REFERENCES FOR FURTHER READING

The National Climate

Executive Office of the President. Office of Management and Budget.The United States Budget in Brief. Fiscal Year 1983. Washington,DC Government Printing Office, 1983.

National Commission on Excellence in Education. A Nation at Risk:The Imperative for Educational Reform. Washington, DC:Government Printing Office. April 1983.

National Research Council International Competition in AdvancedTechnology: Decisions for America. Washington. DC. NationalAcademy Press, 1983.

Schwartz, Gail Garfield, and Choate, Pat. Being Number One:Rebuilding the U.S. Economy. Lexington, MA. D C. Health andCompany. 1980

The Impact of Technology

Ayres. Robert U . and Miller, Steven M. Robotics: Applications andSocial Implications Cambridge. MA: Ballinger, 1983.

Fraser. Jeannette L . Unger. Paul V and Lewis, Morgan V. Roboticsand Office Automation: Implications for Vocational Education.Columbus The National Center for Research in Vocational Edu-cation. The Ohio State University. 1984.

Hunt H Allan. and Hunt. Timothy L Human Resource Implications ofRobotics Kalamazoo. MI W E Upjohn Institute for EmploymentResearch 1983.

Office Systems for the Eighties. Automation and the Bottom Line."Fortune. October 1983. pp 89-162

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The Labor Force

Anderson. Joseph "Population Change and the American LaborMarket. 1950-2000 In Consequences of Changing U.S. Popula-tion. Baby Boom and Bust, Vol 11 Hearings before the SelectCommittee on Population, 95th Congress. Washington, DC:Government Printing Office. 1978

Hecker Dariel E "A Fresh Look at Job Openings.': Occupational Out-look Quarterly (Spring 1983) 27-29

Monthly Labor Review 106, no 11 (November 1983): Whole issue.

Trends within Vocational Education

Golladay. Mary A . and Wulfsberg, Rolf M. The Condition of VocationalEdia,sation Washington, DC National Center for Education Statis-tics. 1981

Lewis. Morgan V .and Russell, Jill Frymier. Trends, Events, and Issues

Likely to Influence Vocational Education in the 1980s. Columbus:The National Center for Research in Vocational Education, TheOhio State University, 1980.

U S Department of Education, National Center for Education Statis-tics. The Condition of Education 1983. Washington, DC:Government Printing Office, 1983.

Implications for Vocational Education

Coates. Joseph F The Changing Nature of Work and Workers."Collaboration Vocational Education and the Private Sector. 1984

Year book pp 3-13 Arlington, VA. American Vocational Associa-tion. 1983

Lewis, Morgan V Fraser. Jeannette L.: and Unger, Paul V. AnticipatingF Wore Influences on Vocational Education. Columbus: TheNational Ccfnter for Research in Vocational Education, The OhioState University. 1984

(Therni;in Suisan Education for Tomorrow's Jobs. Washington. DC:

Natiooal Academy of Science, September 1983.

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Project Title

Contract Nurnbei :

Project Numbers

Educational ActUnder Which FundsWere Administered:

Source of Contract:

Contractor:

Executive Director

Disclaimer

DiscriminationProhibited.

FUNDING INFORMATION

National Center for Research in Vocational Education,Dissemination and Utilization Function

300830016

0510C40060/0510C40061

Education Amendments of 1976, P.L. 94.482

Office of Vocational and Adult EducationU.S. Department of EducationWashington, D.C. 20202

The National Center for Researchin Vocational Education

The Ohio State UniversityColumbus, Ohio 43210

Robert E. Taylor

This publication was prepared pursuant to a contractwith the Office of Vocational and Adult Education,U.S. Department of Education. Contractors undertakingsuch projects under government sponsorship are encouraged to express freely their judgment in professionaland technical matters. Points of view or opinions do not,therefore, necessarily represent official U.S. Departmentof Education position or policy.

Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 states: "Noperson in the United States shall, on the grounds of race,color, or national origin, he excluded from participationin, he denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrim[nation under any program or activity receiving Federalfinancial assistance." Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 states: "No person in the United Statesshall, on the basis of sex, be excluded from participationin, he denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimirwion under any education program or activity receivingFederal financial assistance." Therefore, the NationalCenter for Research in Vocational Education Project,like every program or activity receiving financial assist-ance from the U.S. Department of Education, must beoperated in compliance with these laws.

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THE NATIONAL CENTER MISSION STATEMENT

The Nation -r1 Centel for Research in Vocational Education's mission is toincrease the ability Of diverse agencies, 111StItilti, fls, and organizations to solveeducational problems relating to individual career planning, preparation, andprogression, The National Center fulfills its mission by

Generating knowledge througn research

Developing educational programs and products

Evaluating individual program needs and outcomes

Prnridinq information for national planning and policy

In,h.rIlhnq educational programs and products

Opeiriting it systems and services

Conducting leadership development and training programs

For further information contact.

Program Information OfficeNational Center for Research

in Vocational EducationThe Ohio State University1960 Kenny RoadColumbus, Ohio 43210

Telephone: (6141 486-3655 or (8001 848-4815Cable: CTVOCEDOSLEColumbus, OhioTelex: 8104821894

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The Ohio State University

25