dnh sri lanka weekly 24 oct - 28 oct
TRANSCRIPT
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8/3/2019 DNH Sri Lanka Weekly 24 Oct - 28 Oct
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28-Oct
Prime Lending Rate (Avg. Weighted) 9.21%
Deposit Rate (Avg. Weighted) 6.48%
Treasury Bill Rate (360 Days) 7.34%
Dollar Denominated Bond Rate 6.25%
LKR/US$ (Selling Rate) 111.05
LKR/EURO (Selling Rate) 156.01
21-Oct 28-Oct WoW%
Sri Lanka - ASPI 6357 6348 -0.14
India - Sensex 16785 17805 6.08
Pakistan - KSE 100 11525 11562 0.32
Taiwan Weighted 7255 7616 4.98
Singapore - Straits Times 2712 2906 7.15
Hong Kong - Hang Seng 18444 20019 8.54
DNH
MARK
ETW
ATCH
Sri Lanka Weekly
Market Indices
Time to start bottomfishing?
The Colombo bourse ended the week on a
relatively quiet note with the ASPI
declining by just 0.14%WoW to close at
6348 while the MPI also ended the week a
tad lower at 5662 (-0.23% WoW). Notwithstanding the release of several
strong 3Q2011 results, investors opted to
remain on the sidelines waiting for market
valuations to decline even further before
stepping in. Reflecting the inertia in the
market, weekly turnover declined to
LKR2.7bn. Losers outpaced gainers with
SMB Leasing(X), Peoples Finance(W) and
AMF Co Ltd declining by 12.5%, 11.6%
Global Markets
24-28 October 2011
Market Performance
Interest Rates & Currencies
171.8
20.9
20.5
20.2
-12.5
-11.6
-10.7
-10.3
Infrastructure
Citizens Development
Agalawatte Plantation
Gestetner
SMB Leasing (X)
People's Finance (W)
AMF Co Ltd
Ceylon Hospitals
Gainers & Losers (%)
10.7% and offsetting gains in
Infrastructure Developers, Citizens
Development and Agalawatte Plantation
which rose by 171.8%, 20.9% and 20.5%
respectively.
DNH Financial (Pvt) Ltd.
www.dnhfinancial.com
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ThisWeek
Prv. Week WoW%
ASPI 6,348 6,357 -0.14
MPI 5,662 5,675 -0.23
Turnover (bn) 2.7 4.4 -38.27
Foreign Purchases (mn) 362.17 425 -14.78
Foreign Sales (mn) 274.19 755 -63.68
Traded Companies 256 253 1.19
Market PER (X) 16.33 16.35 -0.12
Market Cap (LKR bn) 2,281 2,283 -0.07
Market Cap (US$ bn) 20.5 20.6 -0.49
Dividend Yield (%) 1.66 1.66 0.00
Price to Book (X) 2.06 2.07 -0.48
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Market Performance
Global markets meanwhile traded in
positive territory after Europe announced its
latest plans to rein in the regions credit
crisis which included a 50% write down on
Greek government debt held by private
bondholders and a boost to the EU bailout
fund.
What is remarkable to note is that even
though the earnings story appears to be
getting brighter and brighter, market
activity remains relatively constrained. The
dichotomy has resulted in a decline in
valuations for several fundamentally strong
companies. However, the critical question
remains as to what level valuations may
need to fall in order to trigger buying
interest? We believe that current multiples
provide the ideal opportunity for investors
to generate above average returns in the
medium to longer term taking into
consideration our firm belief that the market
PE of16.5X does not fully reflect the
valuations of a number of fundamentally
strong stocks which are now trading at
multiples well below 10X.
With the price of relatively lower quality
companies having risen to considerably high
levels during the 2009/2010bull run, an
opportunity to invest in companies of
superior fundamental value now exists with
significant upside potential of reversingrelative underperformance. As we move
deeper into the third quarter, valuations
should continue to decline for such
companies thereby justifying our bull case
for equities even further.
3Q2011/2Q2012earnings growth exceeds
102%
Even though it has been only a limited
number of companies that have released
their 3Q2011/2Q2012earnings, the majority
of the results have been exceptionally strong
led by the Auto sector. Both DIMO andUnited Motors have recorded a 175% and
318% jump in earnings during the quarter
in turn driving down their valuations
significantly lower.
Economic growth in the country appears to
be benefiting not just from heightened
consumption by the middle class but also by
luxury consumers who remain undeterredin their spending patterns despite global
recessionary woes. A quick glance at the
2Q2012 corporate results of DIMO (which
has the distributorship for Mercedez cars in
Sri Lanka) indicates that luxury car sales in
Sri Lanka has completely bucked global
recessionary woes achieving triple digit
revenue growth during 3Q2011 and crossing
the LKR10.0 bn mark (+102%YoY).
While we do contend that global luxury car
sales have also been on an upward
trajectory spearheaded by growth in Asia,
luxury car sales in Sri Lanka has however
significantly outperformed.
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The story so far is highly encouraging,
Top line revenues have grown by
50% during 3Q2011/2Q2012
confirming the robustness of the
domestic economy and the
consumption cycle notwithstanding
headwinds in the global markets.
Overall earnings are up 102% so far
for 3Q2011/2Q2012
Consolidated operating margins have
improved by 10% during the quarter
on the back of improved operating
efficiencies, reduction in financing
costs and tax reductions
On a sector basis, in addition to Autos weare buyers of other sectors which have a
strong domestic theme such as Industrials,
Diversified and Banking that will benefit
from firm volume growth, pricing power
and lower gearing levels enabling the
majority of the companies in these sectors to
beef up margins, achieve solid earnings
growth while generating sustained
cashflow.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Revenue Operating Profits Net Profits
LK
RMn
Consolidated 3Q2011/2Q2011 Corporate
Results so far
3Q2010/2Q2011 3Q2011/2Q2012
Source: CSE/DNH Research
Market Performance (Cont...) While we continue to favour leisure stocks onthe grounds that the sector now appears to be
deriving a considerable portion of its
revenues (F&B for instance) from relatively
sustainable local guests in addition to strong
foreign tourists, we remain underweight on
the Telcos which may report only mediocretop line growth owing to likely downward
pressure on margins as a result of intense
price competition
Tourist arrivals compete head to head with
Maldives
While reputed international hotel chains suchas Sheraton, Raffles of Singapore and Double
Tree (of the Hilton group) have shown
interest in setting up hotels in the country
signaling the strong confidence in Sri Lankas
leisure sector, tourist arrivals to the country
appear to be on track to hit record levels this
year. Arrivals during the first nine months of
the year recorded 598,006 (+34%YTD) and
growing at current rates the number couldexceed that of the Maldives which has
recorded arrivals of 669,172 during the same
period.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,00050,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Tourist Arrivals
2010 2011
Source:www.sltda.gov.lk/DNH Research
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With traffic expected to continue to surge
during the current quarter, we expect tourist
numbers to meet (perhaps even exceed) the
governments full year target of 800,000.
3Q2011/2Q2012 bluechip results will
determine market trajectory
While we do agree that the bourse has not
performed when compared to its strong
earnings generation, the good news is
however that the relative fall from grace
could be red meat for hungry bottom fisherslooking to ride the next rebound. Declining
market turnover levels clearly indicate that
investors are likely to have depleted their
selling spree giving the opportunity for
bottom fishers to step forward.
With the majority of the 3Q2011 results yet to
be released, we expect the market to trade
largely sideways in the immediate term. An
upward movement is however expected once
the larger bluechips announce strong
quarterly results which should exert solid
upward pressure on market trajectory.
Market Performance (Cont...)
Chevron Lubricants released 3Q2011 results
reporting a 23% rise in revenues to LKR3.0bn
while net profits were up 53% to LKR603 mn
as a result of significantly higher margins.
Meanwhile Watawala Plantations returned to
profitability during the 3Q2011 reporting a
profit of LKR28 mn as against a loss of LKR41
mn during 2Q2011 on the back of higher
contribution from rubber and palm oil
offsetting losses in the tea segment. The
average cost of production of tea increased by
LKR41 a kilo owing to higher wage costs and
gratuity provisions.
Both DIMO and United Motors posted
significantly higher 2Q2011 revenue and
earnings growth clearly indicating the
strength of the domestic economy and
heightened consumption levels. Recording a
revenue growth of 102%, DIMO has crossed
the LKR10.0 bn turnover mark during the
quarter allowing it to achieve a net profit
growth of 175% to LKR921 mn. United Motors
meanwhile has reported a 316% rise in its net
profits to LKR555 mn on the back of a 148%
rise in revenues and operating efficiencies. In
the banking sector, Pan Asia Banks net profits
rose by 62% to LKR209 mn during 3Q2011 on
the back of a 38% rise in interest income to
LKR1176 bn while a 52% increase in fee
income also significantly supported thebottomline. The banks loan book grew by
35% to LKR29 bn while deposits grew faster
by 54% to LKR33 bn resulting in the
loan/deposit ratio declining to 91% in 3Q2011.
Corporate News
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The government has raised the excise tax on
alcohol with effect from 25.10.2011 with the
tax on wine, arrack and locally made foreign
spirits raised by LKR60/litre while that on
beer was increased by LKR5/litre. Thisfollows a recent increase in the price of
cigarettes. The hikes are unlikely to
negatively affect the revenues of either
Distilleries or Ceylon Tobacco given the
relatively inelastic demand for both liquor
and cigarettes.
Signaling the strong confidence in Sri
Lankas tourism sector, reputed international
hotel chains such as Sheraton, Raffles of
Singapore and Double Tree (of the Hilton
group) have shown interest in setting up
hotels in the country following buoyant
industry growth. Tourist Arrivals to Sri
Lanka increased to 598,006 for the first nine
months of the year and looks increasingly
likely to match or (perhaps exceed) theMaldives which has recorded arrivals of
669,172 during the period.
United States
US equities closed the week on an optimistic
note with the S&P 500 gaining 3.7% to end at
1285 piggy backing on positiveannouncements from the EU summit and
improved optimism regarding the Eurozones
economic trajectory. Investor confidence
appeared to be unaffected by mixed economic
data on the domestic front with jobless claims
remaining above the 400,000-mark and
September pending home sales declining by
4.6% during the month (in stark contrast to
market expectations of +0.2% growth).3Q2011 GDP growth of 2.5% however was
ahead of market forecasts and significantly
higher than the 1.3% recorded for 2Q2011.
While EU policymakers have agreed that 106
billion should be raised to recapitalise the
regions banks, market operators such as
Goldman Sachs have stated that a much
larger figure of close to 1 trillion may be
needed raising questions as to the quantum of
funds actually required and most importantly
how these funds are going to be generated.
Eurozone
European markets rallied during the week as
EU policymakers unveiled the latest plans to
rein in the credit crisis. Highlights of the
discussions included a 50% write down onGreek government debt held by private
bondholders and a decision to boost the EU
bailout fund from 440 billion to 1 trillion
with banks forced to raise an additional 106
billion to boost their Tier 1 capital.
Economic News Global Outlook
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Global Outlook cont
The Eurostoxx 50 consequently gained 4.9%
to close the week at 2462 spearheaded by
gains in FTSE 100 and the DAX which rose by
3.9% and 5.5% respectively. Notwithstanding
the optimism in the markets, the proposedEU solutions are still very much at its early
stages with details yet to be announced.
Meanwhile, the leveraging of the 1 trillion
bail out could prove more difficult than
initially planned with China been
increasingly perceived as being the likely
funding arm. Although supporting the EU
could undoubtedly be in Chinas best interest,
they may however likely to do so at only a
relatively high price.
Asia
Reacting to the positive EU announcements,
Asian markets rose sharply with the Asia
Pacific Index jumping 7.6% to close at 125, its
highest weekly rise in 2.5 years supported by
gains in Nikkei, Hang Seng and the TOPIXwhich rose by 3.3%, 8.5% and 3.0%
respectively. Risk appetite for equities
appears to have increased considerably
supported by strong 3Q2011 corporate
earnings coupled with generally positive
macro-economic data in the region.
Consequently, funds investing in emerging
market stocks absorbed approximately $1
billion during the week with Asia being the
prime beneficiary.
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Page 7Sri Lanka Weekly 24-28 October 2011
CompanyCSECODE
SharePrice
Net Profit (LKR mn)
(LKR) 2008 2009 2010
Sri Lanka Telecom SLTL 49.60 7,367 778 3,943
Lanka ORIX Leasing LOLC 89.00 1055 2,385 7,367
AHOT Properties AHPL 86.40 623 689 2148
Dialog Axiata DIAL 8.00 -2879 -12208 5047
Softlogic Holdings SHL 19.10 3 -38 N/A
Colombo Fort Land & Buildings CFLB 51.40 717 50 556
Aitken Spence SPEN 127.50 3069 2987 3428 John Keells Holdings JKH 190.50 4965 5552 9063
Commercial Bank COMB 108.10 4268 4304 5524
Hemas Holdings HHL 35.00 719 935 1355
Hayleys HAYL 371.00 803 2609 1216
Hatton National Bank HNB 189.00 3219 4352 4464
Distilleries DIST 166.90 3430 2136 8308
Richard Pieris RICH 9.90 -305 712 2141
Eden Hotel Lanka EDEN 40.80 311 498 101
Nawaloka Hospitals NHL 4.00 -109 97 1071
Kotagala Plantations KOTA 92.50 171 323 668
Asiri Hospitals ASIR 9.00 198 318 262
DIMO DIMO 1318.10 103 278 2122
Kegalle Plantations KGAL 115.20 177 376 883
Royal Ceramics RCL 136.10 206 711 1374
Lanka WallTile LWL 105.00 437 766 909
Ceylon Glass GLAS 7.80 -261 -61 579
Laugfs Gas LGL 39.20 229 528 1003
VallibelOne VONE 25.00 N/A N/A N/A
National Development Bank NDB 128.00 1605 2085 2150
DFCC Bank DFCC 117.00 1360 1713 7137
Sampath Bank SAMP 204.10 1414 2098 3303
Ceylon Leather CLPL 76.70 -24 36 107
Ceylon Grain Elevators GRAN 100.40 -53 134 475
Expolanka Holdings EXPO 10.80 N/A 518 1547
DNH TOP 30 Valuation Guide
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EPS (LKR mn) EPS Growth (%) PE (X)Price toGrowth
(X)
DividendYield (%)
Sharesin
issue(mn)
MarketCap (LKR
bn)
2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2010
SLTL 4.08 0.43 2.18 -89% 407% 12.2 115.1 22.7 0.06 1.2% 1,805 89.5
LOLC 2.22 5.02 15.50 126% 209% 40.1 17.7 5.7 0.03 N/A 475 42.3
AHPL 1.41 1.56 4.85 11% 212% 61.4 55.5 17.8 0.08 1.2% 443 38.3
DIAL -0.35 -1.50 0.62 324% -141% N/A N/A 12.9 -0.09 2.5% 8,144 65.2
SHL 0.00 -0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 779 14.9
CFLB 3.98 0.28 3.09 -93% 1012% 12.9 185.0 16.6 0.02 0.2% 180 9.3
SPEN 7.56 7.36 8.44 -3% 15% 16.9 17.3 15.1 1.02 0.8% 406 51.8
JKH 5.91 6.61 10.79 12% 63% 32.2 28.8 17.7 0.28 1.2% 840 160.1
COMB 11.19 11.28 14.48 1% 28% 9.7 9.6 7.5 0.26 2.7% 765 82.7
HHL 1.40 1.83 2.65 30% 45% 24.9 19.2 13.2 0.29 2.1% 512 17.9
HAYL 10.71 34.79 16.21 225% -53% 34.7 10.7 22.9 -0.43 1.1% 75 27.8
HNB 9.00 12.17 12.49 35% 3% 21.0 15.5 15.1 5.88 2.5% 358 67.6
DIST 11.43 7.12 27.69 -38% 289% 14.6 23.4 6.0 0.02 0.3% 300 50.1
RICH -0.16 0.37 1.11 -333% 201% N/A 26.9 9.0 0.04 2.7% 1,937 19.2
EDEN 5.89 9.43 1.91 60% -80% 6.9 4.3 21.3 -0.27 N/A 53 2.2
NHL -0.08 0.07 0.76 -189% 1004% N/A 58.1 5.3 0.01 0.8% 1,410 5.6
KOTA 5.34 10.09 20.88 89% 107% 17.3 9.2 4.4 0.04 10.8% 32 3.0
ASIR 0.22 0.36 0.29 61% -18% 40.4 25.2 30.5 -1.73 1.1% 889 8.0
DIMO 11.60 31.32 239.06 170% 663% 113.6 42.1 5.5 0.01 4.6% 9 11.7
KGAL 7.08 15.04 35.32 112% 135% 16.3 7.7 3.3 0.02 3.0% 25 2.9
RCL 1.86 6.42 12.40 245% 93% 73.2 21.2 11.0 0.12 1.8% 111 15.1
LWL 8.00 14.03 16.65 75% 19% 13.1 7.5 6.3 0.34 2.0% 55 5.7
GLAS -0.27 -0.06 0.61 -77% -1049% N/A N/A 12.8 -0.01 3.8% 950 7.4
LGL 0.59 1.36 2.59 131% 90% 66.2 28.7 15.1 0.17 0.0% 387 15.2
VONE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,087 27.2
NDB 9.77 12.70 13.09 30% 3% 13.1 10.1 9.8 3.14 5.1% 164 21.0
DFCC 5.13 6.46 26.92 26% 317% 22.8 18.1 4.3 0.01 8.5% 265 31.0
SAMP 9.05 13.42 21.13 48% 57% 22.6 15.2 9.7 0.17 2.2% 156 31.9
CLPL -0.96 1.44 4.28 -250% 197% N/A 53.3 17.9 0.09 N/A 25 1.9
GRAN -0.88 2.23 7.92 355% 255% N/A 45.0 12.7 0.05 1.0% 60 6.0
EXPO N/A 0.26 0.87 N/A 228% N/A 40.8 12 0.05 1.1% 1,955 21.1
DNH TOP 30 Valuation Guide
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nominal GDP (LKR bn) 1,822 2,091 2,453 2,939 3,579 4,411 4,835 5,602
% YoY 15 15 17 20 22 23 10 16
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 19 21 24 28 32 41 42 50
% YoY 14 18 16 14 26 3 18
Real GDP Growth (%) 5.9 5.4 6.2 7.7 6.8 6.0 3.5 8.0
GDP per Capita (US$) 981 1,062 1,241 1,421 1,617 2,014 2,057 2,399
% YoY 13 8 17 15 14 25 2 17
Population (mn) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7
% YoY 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Inflation (%) 6.3 9 11 10 15.8 22.6 3.4 5.9
M2 (LKR BN) 581 688 823 993 1,148 1,282 1,537 1,813
% YoY 14 18 20 21 16 12 20 18
Average Oil Prices (US$ / barrel) 28.1 36.1 50.6 61.1 69.1 94.5 61.1 77.5
% YoY 15 28 40 21 13 37 (35) 27
Exports (US$ bn) 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.1 7.1 8.3
% YoY 9 14 9 10 10 7 -12 17
Imports (US$ bn) 6.7 8.0 8.9 10.2 11.3 14.1 10.2 13.5
% YoY 10 19 11 15 11 25 -28 32
Trade Balance (US$ bn) (1.5) (2.2) (2.5) (3.4) (3.7) (6.0) (3.1) (5.2)
% YoY 7 47 14 36 9 62 -48 67
Current Account Balance (US$ bn) (0.1) (0.6) (0.7) (1.5) (1.4) (3.9) (0.2) (1.4)
% YoY -65 813 0 130 -6 177 -94 563
Balance of Payments (US$ bn) 0.5 (0.2) 0.5 0.2 0.5 (1.4) 2.7 0.9
% YoY 67 -140 -350 -60 150 -380 -293 -67
Budget Deficit (US$ bn) (1.4) (1.5) (1.7) (2.0) (2.2) (2.9) (4.1) (3.9)
% YoY -1 12 11 15 12 29 45 -5
Budget Deficit as % of GDP (7.3) (7.5) (7.0) (7.0) (6.9) (7.0) (9.9) (7.9)
Exchange Rate (LKR/US$) 96.5 101.2 100.5 104.0 110.6 108.3 114.9 113.1
Ke Economic Indicators
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Nominal GDP
Nominal GDP
Real GDP0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP per Capita
GDP Per Capita
0
2
4
6
8
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP Growth (%)
GDP Growth
18.5
19
19.5
20
20.5
21
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Population (mn)
Population
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports (US$ bn)
Exports (US$ bn)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Imports (US$ bn)
Imports (US$ bn)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
BOP(US$ bn)
Balance of payment
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exchange Rate (LKR/USD)
LKR/US$
Ke Economic Charts
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Disclaimer
This Review is prepared and issued by DNH Financial (Pvt.) Ltd. (DNH) based on information in thepublic domain, internally developed and other sources, believed to be correct. Although all reasonable care
has been taken to ensure the contents of the Review are accurate, DNH and/or its Directors,employees, are not responsible for the correctness, usefulness, reliability of same. DNH may act as aBroker in the investments which are the subject of this document or related investments and may haveacted on or used the information contained in this document, or the research or analysis on which it isbased, before its publication. DNH and/or its principal, their respective Directors, or Employees may alsohave a position or be otherwise interested in the investments referred to in this document. This is not anoffer to sell or buy the investments referred to in this document. This Review may contain data which areinaccurate and unreliable. You hereby waive irrevocably any rights or remedies in law or equity you haveor may have against DNH with respect to the Review and agree to indemnify and hold DNH and/or itsprincipal, their respective directors and employees harmless to the fullest extent allowed by law regardingall matters related to your use of this Review.No part of this document may be reproduced, distributed or
published in whole or in part by any means to any other person for any purpose without prior permission.DNH Financial is a fully owned subsidiary of Environmental Resources Investment PLC(ERI).
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