dnb group - digital, regulation and macro challenges · dnb group - digital, regulation and macro...
TRANSCRIPT
DNB Group - Digital, Regulation and Macro Challenges Bjørn Erik Næss, CFO Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference London, March 26th
• DNB ambitions – deliver on financial promises
• DNB’s customers digital behaviour – impact for DNB
• DNB in a tough regulatory environment – DNB well
prepared for the future Basel 4
• DNB in a changing macro environment
2
AGENDA
> 12 per cent
Min. 14% CET1-ratio*
as capital plateau
> 50% dividend
when capital plateau is reached
Return on equity
Financial ambitions - 2016 and 2017
* Based on transitional rules 3
15.1
28.7
0.2 1.6
22.0 %
13.8 %
-20.0 %
-10.0 %
0.0 %
10.0 %
20.0 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-tax operating profit before impairment Impairment of loans and guarantees Return on equity
4
Pre-tax operating profit and ROE NOK billion
DNB delivers healthy profit growth
101,403
158,723
8.5
9.2 9.4
10.7
11.8
12.7
12.1
13.6
15.1
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Equity
CET1-ratio transition rules
FL CET1-Basel 3/CRD IV
5 FL CET1-Basel 3/CRD IV = Best estimate for DNB’s future Fully loaded CET Basel 3 / CRD IV
Strong capital accumulation
CET1-ratio and Equity capital Per cent, NOK million
• DNB ambitions – deliver on financial promises
• DNB’s customers digital behaviour – impact for DNB
• DNB in a tough regulatory environment – DNB well
prepared for the future Basel 4
• DNB in a changing macro environment
6
AGENDA
7
Present in all channels
Bank i butikk – bank services in-store outlets
Mobile
Chat
In-store outlets
Internet banking
Branches (also open on Saturdays)
24h Telephone banking
Our customers prefer online banking
Digital 86%
Manual 14%
Savings agreements
Digital, 64%
Manual, 36%
Consumer loans
Digital, 50%
Manual, 50%
Car loans
Digital 11%
Manual 89%
Insurance
SMS, 25%
Internet bank, 30%
Branch office, 1%
Call Center, 2%
Mobile bank, 42%
Sales digital vs. traditional Share of customer traffic
8
9
100
39
Jan
2014
Feb
2014
Mar
2014
Apr
2014
May
2014
Jun
2014
Jul
2014
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Key takeaways Average number of manual transactions in
pilot branches (rebased)
Modernising the way we do banking - we expect 50-70 per cent reduction in manual transactions
• Fundamentally changing the way we
operate our branches:
o Eliminating manual cash-services
o Moving manual banking transactions to digital
channels
• Continued reduction in number of branches
Continuous efficiency improvements in distribution - number of branches reduced by more than 40% since 2007
244
137
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10
• Optimising the balance between branches
and digital presence
• Customers are embracing digital banking
• Efficiency gains by reducing cost–to–serve
through use of digital channels
Key takeaways Development in number of DNB branches
in Norway
11
Increasing our cost/income ambition
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
European banks (top 50)* Nordic peer group DNB
Cost/income DNB vs peer groups Per cent
C/I ambition for 2017
~40% Combination of
top line growth and
cost focus
• DNB ambitions – deliver on financial promises
• DNB’s customers digital behaviour – impact for DNB
• DNB in a tough regulatory environment – DNB well
prepared for the future Basel 4
• DNB in a changing macro environment
12
AGENDA
4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
1.0% 2.0%
1.0%
1.0% 11.8% 12.7%
13.6%
15.1%
2013 2014 2015 2016
CET1 Minimum Requirement Conservation Buffer Systemic Risk Buffer
SIFIs Countercyclical Buffer CET1-transition rules
Fully loaded CET1/CRD IV
13
DNB is well positioned for new capital requirements
9 %
10 %
13 %
12 % DNB’s
regulatory
CET1-ratio
14
DNB already well prepared for a tougher future regime
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
Corporate risk weights
RW PD/LGD Floors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
DNB Nordea SHB SEB Swedbank Danske
Mortgage risk weights
RW LGD Floor 20% PD Floor 0.2% Pillar 2 requirement
DNB risk
weights –
transition
rules
???
Future risk
weights –
Basel 4 ? ???
Current
IRB
risk weights
15 * DNB’s risk weights are conservatively set due to requirements from the Norwegian FSA. Applying average risk weights
on mortgages and corporate portfolio as used by Swedish peers would increase DNB’s CET1 ratio.
15.1% 12.7 %
18.3 %*
11.7 %
15.1 %
10.1 %
16.3 %
10.4 %
15.7 %
10.6 %
21.2 %
8.7 %
20.4 %
DNB Danske Bank SEB Nordea Swedbank Handelsbanken
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, transitional rules Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, Basel III
Strong capital position vs. peers
Capital adequacy figures as at 31 December 2014 – comparison with Nordic peers
Leverage
Basis
Risk
Weighted
Basis
6.0% 4.1% 4.8% 4.3% 4.5% 3.7%
42.3%
25.1% 23.3% 21.7% 19.5%
17.1%
DNB Group Danske Bank SEB Nordea Swedbank Handelsbanken
Leverage ratio RWAs (as % of total assets)
• DNB ambitions – deliver on financial promises
• DNB’s customers digital behaviour – impact for DNB
• DNB in a tough regulatory environment – DNB well
prepared for the future Basel 4
• DNB in a changing macro environment
16
AGENDA
17 Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets forecasts
2.5 2.5
3.5
4.3
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Mainland GDP growth Unemployment rate
GDP growth and unemployment Year on year, per cent
Slower Economic Growth in Norway is Expected – Exports, private and public consumption will ensure a soft landing
18
Scenario: Lower oil price - What if oil price would stay at $50/bbl.?
2.5
0.6
4.3
5.2
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Mainland GDP GDP $50/bbl-scenario Unemployment Unempl. $50/bbl-scen.
GDP growth and unemployment Year-on-year, per cent
Main assumptions and a downside $50/bbl.-scenario by DNB Markets
Sources: Statistics Norway, forecast and scenario by DNB Markets as of 29 Jan 2015
Fiscal policy
Large public wealth gives ample leeway to
smooth business cycles
19 Source: Thomson Datastream, DNB Markets
Two powerful tools to ensure a stable macro development
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015e
Structural, non-oil deficit
4 per cent return on the fund capital
58
National budget structural, non-oil deficit 2015 prices, NOK billion
Monetary policy
Higher interest rates in Norway
than in the rest of Europe
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ECB Sweden Norway
Central bank rates Per cent
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e 2018e
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
31/1
2/2
013
31/3
/20
14
30/6
/20
14
30/9
/20
14
31/1
2/2
014
USD/NOK
20 * MTM: mark-to-market
Both income and capital ratios build up are sensitive to currency fluctuations
Currency
effects
NOK/USD
NOK/EUR + 15%
45 bps +
NOK/USD
NOK/EUR ÷ 15%
÷ 45 bps
Factors affecting the CET1 ratio 2016 effect, bps
+15%
+6%
The financial ambition of 12% ROE stay firm
Lending volumes expected to grow at an annual rate of around
3-4 per cent, subject to stable exchange rates
Stable development in volume-weighted spreads
Commissions and fees – underlying growth of 5 per cent
Flat nominal costs throughout 2015 (excluding restructuring costs)
1) Normalised levels are around 20 bps of EaD (exposure at default), which corresponds to losses of approx. NOK 4 billion.
Impairment expected to stay below normalised levels 1) in 2015
21
Thank you
23
The statements contained in this presentation may include forward-looking statements such as statements of future
expectations. These statements are based on the management’s current views and assumptions and involve both
known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
Although DNB believes that the expectations reflected in any such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no
assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct.
Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those set out or implied in the forward-looking
statements. Important factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (i) general economic
conditions, (ii) performance of financial markets, including market volatility and liquidity (iii) the extent of credit
defaults, (iv) interest rate levels, (v) currency exchange rates, (vi) changes in the competitive climate, (vii) changes in
laws and regulations, (viii) changes in the policies of central banks and/ or foreign governments, or supra-national
entities.
DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.
DISCLAIMER
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS