distributional effects of trade policy inmaculada martínez-zarzoso university of göttingen...
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Distributional Effects of Trade Policy
Inmaculada Martínez-ZarzosoUniversity of Göttingen (Germany)
and University Jaume I (Spain)
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Outline
• Introduction• Theories• Measurement and methods• Globalization versus hiperglobalization• Multilateral versus bilateral trade liberalization• Conclusions
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Introduction• A country‘s exposure to international trade affects
not only income but also the distribution of resources
• Distributional changes, in what direction?– Developing countries labor abundant better off with
more trade? Evidendence indicates otherwise• Increase in inequality in the last 2-3 decades in
developing countries, why?• Mechanisms: more exposure impact on relative
prices impact on wages and comsumer prices, but who is affected and by how much?
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Theories
• 1. Trade liberalization and economic growth link• 2. General equilibrium approach (Porto, 2006): trade
policy affects household welfare by changing the relative prices of goods, this change affects in turn consumption and income.The model, with some added ingredients can be used to simulate trade policy changesThese ingredients are: – Estimates of changes in traded good prices– Estimates of wage-price elasticities – Response of non-traded good to traded good prices
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Measurement and methods
• Measuring trade liberalization• Direct measures:
– Trade policy barriers from UNCTAD‘s TRAINS data since 1989 tariff and non-tariff barriers main problem is lack of reporting.
– Free Trade Agreements (cross-country studies)– Behind the border trade barriers from WB
• Indirect measures: Trade volumes (exports and imports), but not only determined by trade policy and transport cost, also endogenous variables play a role (wages, incomes...)
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Measurement and methods
• Measuring inequality, what to choose? skill premium, wage inequality, income inequality (Gini), consumption inequality?
• Income versus consumption (expenditure) data to measure inequality (to construct Gini)
• Expenditure data from Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), WB
• Why consumption is better?– Captures better life-time well-being– Income often underreported by households– Trade policy changes the purchaising power of current incomes
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Methods• Porto (2006) GE Approach• Differential exposure approach, Goldberg and
Pavcnik (2005): within a country industries and regions are differentially exposed to trade policies: – Assumes labor is not perfectly mobile across industries– Requires much weaker identification, but partial
equilibrium.• Endogeneity of trade policy: double causality issues,
when are liberalization episodes exogenous?
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Globalization versus hiperglobalization
• Why after the mid-1990s things have been different? The exposure of developing countries to international markets has increased substantially:– Decrease of trade protection– Increase share of imports and exports in GDP– Magnitude of capital flows: FDI– Exchange rate fluctuations
• Scatter plot before (top) and after (bottom) 1995 for high (left) and low (right) income countries, 1960-2009
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0 50 100 150Exports (goods services, % GDP)
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0 50 100 150 200 250Exports (goods services, % GDP)
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Multilateral versus bilateral trade liberalization
• Bilateralization of world trade: proliferation of regional/bilateral trade agreements in the 2000s
• Is this trend helping the poor redistributing income?• Most of them 3rd generation agreements including:
– Labor provisions: against “race-to-the-bottom” – Environmental provisions– Trade in services– Economic cooperation
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Evolution of Regional Trade Agreements in the world, 1948-2012
Source: http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regfac_e.htm
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20140
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RTA_labourRTA_labort_Ac
Evolution of Regional Trade Agreements with labour provisions, in the world, 1997-2012
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
Conclusions
• Evidence suggests an increase in globalization and inequality in developing countries in the recent past, is this causal?
• Scarce support for the premise that trade openness in developing countries would favour the poor
• Adjustment occurs mainly within industries,why?• Perhaps labour market liberalization also needed to
facilitate sectoral relocation of workers• Short-run versus long-run effects, what time frame
to use?
I. Martínez-Zarzoso
New directions
• Use narrower measures of inequality• Change focus from the country to the firm• Heterogeneity of firms, plants, products and
workers is important• Use of highly disaggregated data: for plants,
product lines, workers characteristics• Narrower connection between theory and
empirics