distressed investing demystified: lessons from recent cases
DESCRIPTION
Distressed Investing Demystified: Lessons From Recent Cases. Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Des Moines May 7, 2008 Stephen G. Moyer, CFA Director Tennenbaum Capital Partners, LLC. General Disclaimer. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Page 1 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Distressed Investing Demystified:Lessons From Recent Cases
Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Des Moines
May 7, 2008
Stephen G. Moyer, CFADirector
Tennenbaum Capital Partners, LLC
Page 2 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
General Disclaimer
The information/views discussed in this presentation are the author’s/speaker’s (“author”) alone and not necessarily those of Tennenbaum Capital Partners, LLC (“TCP”). The author has no direct holdings in any securities. TCP may from time to time have holdings of distressed securities of the type generically discussed herein. This presentation is for information purposes only. Nothing in these materials or the related discussion should be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. Investment in distressed securities involves substantial risk.
Page 3 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Tennenbaum Capital Partners
Institutional Asset Manager with ~$7.5 billion under management $6.5B Credit Opportunities Funds
– Long-Term Activist Orientation– 20 person investment team
$1.0B Multi Strategy Hedge Fund– Convert Arb, Risk Arb, Deep Value/Distressed, Capital
Structure Arb, Special Situation Equities– 6 person investment team
Page 4 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Highlights of the Current Distressed Market
Page 5 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Historic Default Rates
Source: E. Altman, NYU Solomon Center
Page 6 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Leveraged Loan Market Has Grown
Page 7 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Quality of Leveraged Loans Has Declined
Page 8 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Growth in Sr Debt Crowding out Sub Debt
Source: Bank of America/Carlyle
Page 9 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Size of US Defaulted & Distressed Debt Mkt
Source: E. Altman, NYU Solomon Center
Page 10 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
But Sprds Still Low Relative to Distressed Cycle
Page 11 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Prices Too High for Outsized Returns
Page 12 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Recession Could Trigger Explosion in Distressed Opportunities
Periods of Recession: 11/73 - 3/75, 1/80 - 7/80, 7/81 - 11/82, 7/90 - 3/91, 4/01 – 12/01
Source: E. Altman (NYU Salomon Center) & National Bureau of Economic Research
HIGH YIELD BOND MARKET 1972 – 2007
Page 13 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Four Reasons Why Superior Returns May Be Possible
Insufficient Information/Liquidity for Efficiency
Sale Decisions Not Related to Fundamentals
Investor Involvement Affects Returns
Imbalances in the Supply/Demand for Distressed Securities
Page 14 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Analyzing Distress Debt Investment Opportunities
Page 15 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Valuation Fallacies
GAAP Market--Going Concern Distressed Valuation
Sr Debt = 500 Sr Debt = 500 EV = 302 Sr Debt = 250 Sub Debt = 40 E = 12
Sub Debt = 200 Sub Debt = 200 AV = 1350
EV = 2500
E=650Shares 120Px 15Mkt Cap 1800
Amount Price ValueCash 200 Sr Debt 500 Sr Debt 500 Sr Debt 500 50% 250Tang Assets 970 Sub Debt 200 Sub Debt 200 Sub Debt 200 20% 40Goodwill 180 Equity 650 EV 2500 Equity 1800 Equity 120 0.10 12Total 1350 1350 Total 2500 2500 Total 302
Page 16 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Beazer Valuation Volatility
GAAP @ 6/30/07 Mkt Val @ 1/24/07 Mkt Val @ 10/4/07
Sr Notes 1250
Sr Notes= 1500 Sr Notes= 1500EV= 1682
Sub Notes 60 Asset Value AV = 4,000 Sub Note= 100 Sub Notes= 100 Mkt Cap 375
Other = 900 EV= 3450
Mkt Cap= 1850Equity= 1500
Page 17 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Bally’s Valuation Across TimeGAAP @ 12/31/06 Mkt Val @ 5/5/06 Mkt Val @ 3/19/07
Bank Debt = 201 Bank Debt = 198 Bank Debt = 225
Asset Value AV = 369 Sr Notes= 253 Sr Notes= 242 Enterprise Sr Notes= 200
Value EV = 650
Neg Equity 385 Sub Notes= 210Sub Notes= 300 Sub Notes= 300
Shares 41.3Price (Px) 0.34$
Enterprise Mkt Cap 14 Value EV = 1131
Shares 41.3Price (Px) 9.48$ Mkt Cap 391
Page 18 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
A Picture of Distress
AV = 302 Sr Debt = 500
Neg Equity = 398 Sub Debt = 200
Assets 302Liabilities 700Neg Equity 398 Equity 0Total 700 700
Page 19 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Its Nice to Have Options
Increase Asset Value Resize Capital Structure
Sr Debt = 500 AV = 302 Sr. Debt = 150
AV = 700 E = 152
Sub Debt = 200
Cash 200Sr Debt 500 Cash 200Sr Debt 150Tang Assets 500 Sub Debt 200 Tang Assets 102 Sub Debt 0Total 700 Equity 0 Total 302 Equity 152
700 302
Page 20 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Fulcrum Security
General meaning is that claim class which will receive majority of its recovery in post-reorg equity
Typically is point in the claim waterfall where EV ends
Sr Debt 500
Sub Debt 200
Page 21 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Distressed Investing Paradigm: How Much is There—Who Gets It—What Do They Get
Secured Debt Cash/Exit Loan
Sr Unsec DebtNew Debt
Trade Claims
EV=? Sub Debt Equity
Equity
Page 22 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Step 1: Valuation
EV=?
Valuation Approaches Standard– DCF– EBITDA Multiple– % of Revenues– Specialized Asset Valuations
(e.g. Aircraft, Ships, Real Estate) Use PV Discounting to Adjust for Cash
Flow Timing– Length of Reorganization Process– Expected Distributions/Realizations
Challenge: – Predicting Ch 11 impact on EV– Analyzing the Impact of the
Bankruptcy Rules on Recoveries
-
Page 23 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Equity in Control But May Only Have Option Value
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Enterprise Value ($)
Equ
ity V
alue
($)
Equity Value Equity Call Option Value
Page 24 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Can Voluntary Restructuring Resolve Distress?
If Over Leverage/Liquidity the Primary Source of Financial Distress:
– Bond Buy Backs or Exchange Offers May Be Effective– e.g. Rescap
If Problem is Management/Operations/Non-Financial Liabilities– Voluntary Acts by Financial Creditors Can’t Address Problem
Highly Liquid Markets Often Allow Deferral of Either Problem
The Holdout Problem
Page 25 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Hold-Outs Often Prevent Voluntary Solution That Would Avoid Dead Weight Loss
TDebt HFace E
Cash NewCash W Debt
ADebt Exchange L
Market L
HoldOut
Value: 40% 100% 60%
Page 26 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Key Considerations in Bankruptcy Recoveries
Pre-Planning/Time-In/Damage to Franchise Amt of Secured Debt and Type of Holders Recognition of Off-BS Liabilities Budgeting Exceptions to Absolute Priority Rule Tax Asset Preservation
Page 27 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Acceptance or Rejection of Executory Contracts BRC §365
Std. Def. Of Executory: Sufficient Performance Remaining on Both Sides that Nonperformance is a Material Breach
Used to Reject Uneconomic Contracts—Rejected Party Has Damage Claim as Pre-Petition Creditor.
Real Estate Lease Rejections Subject to Cap: 1Y or 15% not in excess of 3Y.
Additional Considerations for Collective Bargaining, Retiree Benefit and Electric Power Agreements
Page 28 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Acceptance v Rejection Tradeoff
Secured Debt Secured Debt
Trade Claims Trade Claims Increase by K Damages Sr Debt
Sr Debt Jr DebtEV ImprovementFrom K Rejection Jr Debt
Page 29 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Step 2: Determine Claim Status
General Rule: All Claims equal unless:– Secured– Statutory Priority– Legally Subordinated– Structurally Subordinated
Senario 1 Senario 2 Senario 3Secured Debt Secured Debt Secured Debt
Sr Unsec Debt Sr Trade Sr Unsec DebtUnsec Claims
Trade Claims Debt Sub TradeDebt Claims
Sub Debt Sub Debt
Equity Equity Equity
Page 30 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Contractual Subordination
All Unsecured Claims Essentially Equal Unless They Agree to Subordination
Subordination is Contractual Provision Entitling Benefited Claim to Recover Value Until Whole Before Sub Claim Gets Anything
Subordination Provisions Should be Reviewed to Determine What Claims Specifically Benefited
Issues Can Arise Relating to Acquired or Later Issued Debt
Page 31 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Operation of Subordination Provisions
$50Trade Claims
$50$75 Bank Debt
$100Sub Notes
Dead Co.
Equity
Assets 75 Pro Rata Effect of Adjusted RecoveryRecovery Subrogation Recovery %
Trade Claims 50.00 18.75 0 18.75 37.5%Bank Debt 50.00 18.75 31.25 50.00 100.0%Sub Notes 100.00 37.50 -31.25 6.25 6.3%Total Claims 200 75.00 75.00
Page 32 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Structural Subordination in Complex Capital Structures
Hold CoLimited Sr NotesAssetsOpCo PublicEquity Equity
Operating SubSecured Debt
Operating Trade ClamsAssets Sub Debt
Equity
Page 33 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Every Structure Unique
Hold CoLimited Sr NotesAssetsOpCo PublicEquity Equity
Operating SubSecured Debt
Operating Trade ClamsAssets Sub Debt
Equity
Senario 4Secured Debt
Sub TradeDebt Claims
Sr Unsec Debt
Equity
Page 34 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Step 3: Predicting Outcome of Reorganization Process
Reorganization v. Liquidation Post-Reorganization Capital Structure Allocation of Capital Structure to Creditor Constituencies Political Considerations
Page 35 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Politics of Plan Valuation
Sr CreditorsJr Creditors + EquityManagement
LowHighLow
Claim >% of EVMore EV to shareOptions/Equity in the Money
Importance: Be Skeptical of Plan Valuation
PartyDesired
Valuation Motive
Page 36 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Example: Sub Note Outcomes Turn on Plan Structure and Valuation
Analyze the Impact of– Lower (4.5x) v Higher (5.5x) Plan Valuation– Amount of Post-Petition Unsecured Debt
$0 v $600 Assume
Sr Debt Claim = $850 Px = 75 Sub Debt Claim = $250 Px = 25
Page 37 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Equity Split: Low ValuationValuation EBITDA 250Valuation Multiple 4.5Plan Value 1125
LeverageBank Facility 150 0.6xNew Sr Debt 0Value of Equity 975Allocation Claim Recov % EquitySr Debt 850 850 87%Sub Note 250 125 13%Equity 0 0%
LeverageBank Facility 150 0.6xNew Sr Debt 600 2.4xValue of Equity 375Allocation % EquitySr Debt claim 250 250 67%Sub Note claim 250 125 33%Equity 0 0%
Moderate Leverage/Low Valuation Plan
Low Leverage/Low Valuation Plan
Low Valuation Scenario
Lower valuation multiple
Difference in debt
Allocation of equity impacted by debt assumption
Page 38 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Low Valuation/Change Debt
Low Val/Low Lev Low Val/Med LevBank-150 Bank-150
Sr Rec
DebtEV=1125 Sr Rec EV=1125 $600
Equity Sr Rec Sub
87% Equity Eq
67% 33%
Page 39 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Equity Split—Higher Valuation
Valuation EBITDA 250Valuation Multiple 5.5Plan Value 1375
LeverageBank Facility 150 0.6xNew Sr Debt 0 0.0xValue of Equity 1225Allocation Claim Recov % EquitySr Debt claim 850 850 70%Sub Note claim 250 250 20%Equity Recovery 125 10%
LeverageBank Facility 150 0.6xNew Sr Debt 600 2.4xValue of Equity 625Allocation % EquitySr Debt claim 250 250 40%Sub Note claim 250 250 40%Equity Recovery 125 20%
Moderate Leverage/Higher Valuation Plan
Low Leverage/Higher Valuation Plan
Higher Valuation Scenario
Higher multiple
Allocation of equity impacted by debt assumption
Page 40 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
High Valuation—Change Debt
High Val/Low Lev High Val/Med LevBank-150 Bank-150
Sr Rec
DebtEV=1375 EV=1375 $600
Sr Rec Sub Sr Sub
70% 20% 40% 40%
Page 41 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Recovery Upside From Conservative PlanPLAN TRUE
Low Val ValueLow Lev Higher
EBITDA 250 250Val Multiple 4.5x 6.0xEnt. Value 1125 1500Less: WC Debt 150 150Less: LT Debt 0 0Equity Value 975 1350
Sr Note Claim 850 850Debt 0 0Equity % 87% 87%Equity $ 850 1177Total Recovery 850 1177% of Claim 100% 138%
Sub Note Claim 250 250Debt 0 0Equity % 13% 13%Equity $ 125 173Total Recovery 125 173% of Claim 50% 69%
EquityDebt 0 0Equity % 0% 0%Equity $ 0 0Total Recovery 0 0% of Claim NA NA
Assumed TRUE value high enough to cover all debt with some value to equity.
Senior Notes recover substantially more than their claim due to low Plan value.
Low Plan value results in Sub Notes and Equity receiving less than entitled to had Plan value been accurate.
Page 42 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Analyzing a Complex Case: Calpine
Page 43 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Calpine Corporate Structure
Calpine Holdco
CalGen CFCC II CPN Energy
Services
CPN Canada Var Projects
Page 44 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Calpine – Liquidity Challenge in 2007
FY04E Cash: $2B
2005 2006 2007 2008
Maturities ($MM) 410 617 1481 2121
Bond Price 101.5 99.5 76 74.5
Page 45 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Calpine Filing
Files Ch 11 on 12/20/05 at 10:57 NYT—no bond or coupon payments for at least 30 days
Since CDS contracts expire at 11:59PM GMT, all CDS expiring on 12/20/05 lapsed without Credit Event
Date of filing likely driven by requirement to make large payments to gas suppliers on 25th of each month.
Page 46 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Calpine Corp--Holdco Waterfall Recovery Analysis--As of 2/06Assets Liabilities/Claims 39447 Est $ Est Avg %Cash (PF@11/05=$2.66B) 1,500.0 Claim Recovery Recovery
Admin Costs 400.0 400.0 100.0%Equity-CalGen 826.2 DIP Loan 850.0 850.0 100.0%Equity-CCFC 1 635.7 Avail for Creditors 5,756.3 Equity-Gilroy - Equity-CES - 1st -TL 646.1 646.1 100.0%Equity-Cal Energy/Unconsol Inv - Avail for 2nd Lien 5,110.2 Total Sub Stk Value 1,461.9
2nd Lien 3,775.1 4,455.1 121.3%Generating Assets Avail for Unsecureds 655.1 ERCOT 400.5 NEPOOL 93.5 Ben-Unsec Notes 801.7 139.3 17.7%NYPOOL 160.0 UnBen-Unsec Notes 5,161.3 422.0 9.6%OTHER 55.5 GUC 1,000.0 93.9 9.4%SERC 440.0 Total 6,963.0 655.1 WECC-Gas 93.4 WECC-Thermal 2,512.5 Available for Equity - Unleveraged Generating Assets 3,755.3 Encumbered Gen Assets 289.1
Total Assets w/ $ 7,006.3
CalGen Est $ Est Avg %Region MW $/KW Value Class Claim Recovery RecoveryERCOT 2,705.0 500.0 1,352.5 1st Lien 835.0 835.0 100.0%MAIN 513.0 350.0 179.6 2nd Lien 740.0 740.0 100.0%SERC 2,434.0 225.0 547.7 3rd Lien 830.0 830.0 100.0%SPP 994.0 300.0 298.2 WECC 1,484.0 575.0 853.3 Total 8,130.0 3,231.2 Avail to Holdco Equity 826.2
CCFC 1 Not Filed Est $ Est Avg %Region MW $/KW Value Class Claim Recovery RecoveryERCOT 1,208.0 500.0 604.0 1st Lien 377.3 377.3 100.0%NEPOOL 528.0 550.0 290.4 2nd Lien 415.0 415.0 100.0%FRCC 400.0 400.0 212.0 Pref Int 300.0 300.0 100.0%WECC 1,081.0 575.0 621.6 Total 3,217.0 1,728.0 Avail to Holdco Equity 635.675
Page 47 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Key Valuaton Assumptions Color KeyPlant ValuationsCANADA 400 "owned" assets where valuations ERCOT 500 varied on % basis.FRCC 400MAIN 350 Geysers--valuation fixed at $2.5B NEPOOL 550NYPOOL 800PJM 600 "encumbered" assets where equitySERC 225 valued on $/Kw basis.SPP 300WECC-B 575WECC-P 350GEYSER 3350Base Valuation Adj % 100%Value of Equity in Proj ($KW) 50
Page 48 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
GUC Claim Assumption
Initially reflected significant executory contract rejection claim assumption
CPN had forward power delivery contracts with no gas hedge When gas prices increased, contracts became unprofitable Four largest contracts were estimated to be underwater by $1B Weigh risk that public policy would prevent rejection
Page 49 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Calpine: The Waterfall and the Effect of Subordination of 7.75s on
$2B DIPEst $850MM Drawn
$646 1st lien
$3.775B 2d lien
25% Pro Rata Distrib Effect of Subordination$801MM Ben Unsec $801MM Ben Unsec
46 Recovery
$5.1B Unben Unsec $5.1B Unben Unsec
$1B GUC-Est $1B GUC-Est
$650 Cvt Sub $650 Cvt Sub
Page 50 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Calpine Corp--Holdco Waterfall Recovery Analysis 7,006.3
Coupon Mat Amt 9/30 Claim 12/20 Claim/Face Px-1/20 Claim-2Y Recov-E$ Recov %Admin Costs 400.0 400.0DIP Loan 850.0 850.0
Avail for Creditors 5756.31st -TL 9.625% 9/30/14 646.1 659.1 102.0% 103.4 100.0% 646.1 100.0%
Avail for 2d Lien 5110.2
2nd-Notes L+575 7/15/07 490.0 498.8 101.8% 122.6% 600.6 122.6%2nd-TL L+575 7/15/07 735.0 748.2 101.8% 122.6% 901.0 122.6%2nd-Notes 8.500% 7/15/10 1,150.0 1,192.1 103.7% 85.5 120.4% 1384.6 120.4%2nd-Notes 9.875% 12/1/11 400.0 402.1 100.5% 87.0 120.0% 479.9 120.0%2nd-Notes 8.750% 7/15/13 900.0 933.9 103.8% 85.5 121.0% 1089.0 121.0%
Thru 2nd Lien 4,321.1 Avail to Unsec 655.1 4223.3xUnsecured Notes
Sr Notes 7.625% 4/15/06 102.2 103.6 101.4% 36.5 116.9% 18.0 17.6%Sr Notes 10.50% 5/15/06 139.2 140.6 101.0% 36.5 122.3% 24.4 17.6%
Sr Notes 8.750% 7/15/07 190.3 197.5 103.8% 36.5 121.5% 34.3 18.0%
Sr Notes 7.875% 4/1/08 173.8 176.9 101.8% 34.0 117.7% 30.7 17.7%Sr Notes 7.750% 4/15/09 180.6 183.1 101.4% 37.0 117.1% 31.8 17.6%Other GUC 1000.0 1,000.0 100.0% 93.9 9.4%Sr Notes 8.625% 8/15/10 411.2 423.5 103.0% 25.5 120.5% 39.9 9.7%Sr Notes 8.500% 2/15/11 682.8 703.0 103.0% 26.0 120.2% 66.2 9.7%Sr Cvt Notes--OID 6.000% 9/30/14 641.7 651.4 101.5% 16.5 113.7% 61.3 9.5%Sr Cvt Notes 4.000% 12/26/06 1.3 1.3 101.9% 23.8 110.1% 0.1 9.6%
Sr Cvt Notes 4.750% 11/15/09 633.8 636.7 100.5% 23.8 110.1% 59.9 9.4%Sr Cvt Notes 7.750% 6/1/15 650.0 677.8 104.3% 9.5 120.0% 0.0 0.0%CPN Guar Canadian Notes--Pari UnsecSr Notes-Can CDN200MM 8.750% 10/15/07 170.7 173.4 101.6% 30.8 119.3% 16.3 9.6%Sr Notes-Can USD 8.500% 5/1/08 1,515.9 1,533.4 101.2% 35.0 118.4% 144.4 9.5%Sr Notes-Can Eur175 8.375% 10/15/08 141.3 143.4 101.5% 33.8 118.5% 13.5 9.6%Sr Notes-Can GBP200 8.875% 10/15/11 214 217.4 101.6% 33.8 119.6% 20.5 9.6%Total Unsecured 6,848.8 6,963.0
Total Calpine Debt 11,169.9 655.1
Equity 0.0Per Share 569.38241 0.00
Page 51 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Benefited V Unbenefited—Sprd Calculation
Pricing Relationship--Benefited V UnbenefitedBenefited 36.50 40.58 44.27 47.96 51.65 55.34 59.02Unbenefited 19.79 22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00Spread 16.71 18.58 20.27 21.96 23.65 25.34 27.02
Page 52 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Hedged Trade Between Unsecured Notes
Trade IdeaSell--Unben 8.5 '11 26.00Buy--Ben 10.5 '06 36.50Investment 10.50Scenario 1 Unben Correctly priced
8.5 '11 26.00Adj 10.5 '06 47.96 ReturnProfit 11.46 109.1%
Scenario 2 Benifited Correctly priced
10.5 '06 36.50Adj 8.5 '11 19.79 ReturnProfit 6.21 59.1%
Page 53 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
The Make-Whole Controversy
In 2006, Debtor sought to refinance a costly DIP with new facility that would pay-off CalGen secured debt thus freeing excess collateral value.
The CalGen debt matured in 2009 but was non-call until 4/1/07, thereafter callable at 102.5%
Debtor argued that non-call provision unenforceable and that call premium didn’t technically apply to pre-4/07 redemptions
Judge Lifland agreed non-call was unenforceable but awarded make-whole premium as a measure of damages
– But, make-whole premium was unsecured claim against Calpine
Page 54 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
The Calpine Canada Double Dip
CALPINE
Guarantee
Canada FinCo$
Loan AgreementCalpine Canada
Notes
Page 55 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Valuations SkyrocketedCalpine Corp--Holdco Waterfall Recovery Analysis 12,674.5
Coupon Mat Amt 9/30 Claim 12/20 Claim/Face Px-1-20-06Px 2-16-07 Claim-2Y Recov-E$ Recov %Admin Costs 400.0 400.0DIP Loan 850.0 850.0
Avail for Creditors 11424.51st -TL 9.625% 9/30/14 646.1 659.1 102.0% 103.4 106.0 100.0% 646.1 100.0%
Avail for 2d Lien 10778.4
2nd-Notes L+575 7/15/07 490.0 498.8 101.8% 122.6% 600.6 122.6%2nd-TL L+575 7/15/07 735.0 748.2 101.8% 122.6% 901.0 122.6%2nd-Notes 8.500% 7/15/10 1,150.0 1,192.1 103.7% 85.5 105.0 120.4% 1384.6 120.4%2nd-Notes 9.875% 12/1/11 400.0 402.1 100.5% 87.0 108.5 120.0% 479.9 120.0%2nd-Notes 8.750% 7/15/13 900.0 933.9 103.8% 85.5 121.0% 1089.0 121.0%
Thru 2nd Lien 4,321.1 Avail to Unsec 6,323.3 8907.8xUnsecured Notes
Sr Notes 7.625% 4/15/06 102.2 103.6 101.4% 36.5 106.0 116.9% 119.4 116.9%Sr Notes 10.50% 5/15/06 139.2 140.6 101.0% 36.5 107.0 122.3% 170.3 122.3%
Sr Notes 8.750% 7/15/07 190.3 197.5 103.8% 36.5 104.3 121.5% 231.3 121.5%
Sr Notes 7.875% 4/1/08 173.8 176.9 101.8% 34.0 103.5 117.7% 204.6 117.7%Sr Notes 7.750% 4/15/09 180.6 183.1 101.4% 37.0 104.5 117.1% 211.5 117.1%Other GUC 1000.0 1,000.0 100.0% 906.3 90.6%Sr Notes 8.625% 8/15/10 411.2 423.5 103.0% 25.5 98.8 120.5% 384.8 93.6%Sr Notes 8.500% 2/15/11 682.8 703.0 103.0% 26.0 98.8 120.2% 638.7 93.5%Sr Cvt Notes--OID 6.000% 9/30/14 641.7 651.4 101.5% 16.5 82.8 113.7% 591.4 92.2%Sr Cvt Notes 4.000% 12/26/06 1.3 1.3 101.9% 23.8 64.0 110.1% 1.2 92.5%
Sr Cvt Notes 4.750% 11/15/09 633.8 636.7 100.5% 23.8 93.0 110.1% 577.9 91.2%Sr Cvt Notes 7.750% 6/1/15 650.0 677.8 104.3% 9.5 93.1 120.0% 407.0 62.6%CPN Guar Canadian Notes--Pari UnsecSr Notes-Can CDN200MM 8.750% 10/15/07 170.7 173.4 101.6% 30.8 102.0 119.3% 157.6 92.3%Sr Notes-Can USD 8.500% 5/1/08 1,515.9 1,533.4 101.2% 35.0 101.6 118.4% 1393.3 91.9%Sr Notes-Can Eur175 8.375% 10/15/08 141.3 143.4 101.5% 33.8 101.0 118.5% 130.3 92.2%Sr Notes-Can GBP200 8.875% 10/15/11 214 217.4 101.6% 33.8 101.0 119.6% 197.6 92.3%Total Unsecured 6,848.8 6,963.0
Total Calpine Debt 11,169.9 6323.3
Equity 0.0 745.9Per Share 569.38241 0.00 1.31
Page 56 2008 Stephen G. Moyer
Ultimate Outcome of Plan
Page 57 2008 Stephen G. Moyer