display search led 2008
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Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved
CMO LED Day Forum
2008年7月23日
LED BLU and Green High Tech Life
姚柏宏姚柏宏 / Luke Yao/ Luke Yao
Research DirectorResearch Director
DisplaySearch/ TaiwanDisplaySearch/ TaiwanEmail: [email protected]: [email protected]
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Thank you!For more information on the analysis and data included in this presentation:
Visit us at www.displaysearch.com Contact Patrick Maki
+1-512-687-1511 or 877-869-6075 (US only)[email protected]
DisplaySearch AnalystLuke Yao - Research Director, Lighting David Hsieh - Vice President, Greater China Market
Referenced and related DisplaySearch research:Quarterly Backlight Lamp and Backlight Unit Report
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Brief Introduction
RetailersEqpt./MaterialsSuppliers
PanelMakers
Brands ConsumersOEMs
= The Most Professional Pipe Worker for Worldwide Display Industry
Luke Yao
=The Professional Analyst of BLU Technology and Market
•Backlight Module •Optical Films •LED Light SourceResearch Field
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Agenda
•Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market
•Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast
•Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB
•Summary
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Agenda
•Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market
•Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast
•Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB
•Summary
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Green Life Image
Only one Earth we have and we want her to be …
Relaxing
DynamicForever
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Mission of Green Display
Reduce Power ConsumptionReduce Hazardous Material
Improve Recycle Practice
Reduce System Components Use Environmental Friendly Material
Enjoy your life through the Green Display even though you just sit in front of it.
Increase Product Life Time
Improve Efficiency of Components
Make LCD Display more Friendly to Earth…
Copyright © 2008 DisplaySearch · All Worldwide Rights Reserved 10
Opportunity of L/A LED BLUMarket Potential Advantage Challenge Driving Force
• Power Saving
• Light weight
• Thin profile
• Small cost premium
• Intensity
• LGP yield rate
• LED Binning
• LED Package
• Power Saving
• Dynamic BLU control
• Cost
• Reliability
• LED Binning
• Huge LED Amount
• Power Saving • Cost
• Intensity
• Reliability
• Selling PointsLow
High NB PC
LCD TV
Monitor
Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report
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Categories of LED BLUs for NBs
High Brightness Model Regular Model
Flat LGP (V-cut Pattern) Wedge LGP (Dot Pattern) Flat LGP (Dot Pattern)
Film Stack Reflector+ LGP+ Turning Film + Top Diffuser
Reflector+ LGP+ Cross Prism Films + Top Diffuser
Reflector+ LGP+ Cross Prism Films + Top Diffuser
Patent Right Mitsubishi Rayon NA NA
BLU Supplier △ ◎ ○
Brightness ◎ ○ △LGP Yield △ ◎ ○Thickness ◎ ○ ◎Cost △ ◎ ○
BLU Structure
Relative Factor of Evaluation: ◎ > ○ > △
Yield rate of LGP decides the penetration rate of LED BLU for NB application.
Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report
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Agenda
•Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market
•Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast
•Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB
•Summary
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L/A LED BLU Forecast
L/A LED BLU Penetration Rate by Application
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%110%
NoteBook LED BLU 1.5% 3.6% 13.5% 38.3% 52.4% 71.7% 91.4% 98.8% 99.4% 100.0%
Monitor LED BLU 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 2.2% 4.0% 7.4% 12.9%
LCD TV LED BLU 0.3% 0.02% 0.3% 1.8% 4.8% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 10.7% 11.2%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report
Q2'08 Forecast (000 units) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015CCFL/EEFL/HCFL Backlight 282,694 392,286 448,965 469,188 493,610 491,605 468,497 468,351 483,190 497,553LED Backlight 1,380 4,250 20,071 69,102 115,428 188,196 278,116 348,769 407,311 474,089FFL Backlight 450 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0All >10" TFT 284,524 396,621 469,036 538,290 609,038 679,801 746,613 817,121 890,501 971,642Q2'08 Forecast (This Time) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015CCFL/EEFL/HCFL Backlight 99% 99% 95.7% 87% 81% 72% 63% 57% 54% 51%LED Backlight 0.5% 1.1% 4.3% 12.8% 19.0% 27.7% 37.3% 42.7% 45.7% 48.8%FFL Backlight 0.2% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%All >10" TFT 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Q1'08 Forecast (Last Time) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015CCFL/EEFL/HCFL Backlight 99% 99% 96.3% 90% 83% 75% 66% 62% 59% 55%LED Backlight 0.5% 1.0% 3.7% 9.9% 17.0% 25.4% 34.0% 38.3% 41.0% 44.6%FFL Backlight 0.2% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%All >10" TFT 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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Penetration of LED BLU for NB PC
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
000
units
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
LED BLU (NB) 1,170 4,081 19,349 65,753 106,018 169,484 254,734 317,919 363,629 410,118
NB Total 79,772 113,452 142,895 171,718 202,487 236,272 278,715 321,855 365,657 410,118
Penetration Rate 1.5% 3.6% 13.5% 38.3% 52.4% 71.7% 91.4% 98.8% 99.4% 100.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Apple HP Dell Sony Fujitsu Toshiba ASUS LenovoPanel Maker i.CMO,AUO ii.SEC CMO,AUO CMO TMD TMD TMD TMD TMDBLU Maker Kenmos/ Nano-Op Kenmos Kenmos Matsushita Stanley Stanley Stanley StanleyLED Maker TG(i), Nichia(ii) TG/Nichia TG/Nichia Nichia TG Nichia Nichia Nichia Size 13.3", 15.4", 17" 12.1" 13.3" 11.1", 13.3" 8.9", 12.1"14.1" 12.1",13.3" 11.1",12.1",13.3" 13.3"Model Name MacBook Pro & Air 2710P XPS M1330 TX, SZ P8010,P1620,S6510 R500, M700 U1,U3,U6 X300
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LED NB Market Forecast by Size
2009
<14” ≧14”
20152007Leading size of
LED NB
NB size smaller than 14” will dominate the demand of LED models corresponding to business customers with high mobility before 2009 and 14”+ ones will take over the primary market share of LED NB, especially 15.4” and 15.6” ones, to accelerate the penetration of LED BLU in NB market after 2009.
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
≧ 14" 0.1% 6.5% 28.3% 41.1% 59.9% 76.3% 81.9% 83.6% 82.6%
<14" 3.5% 7.1% 9.9% 11.2% 11.8% 15.1% 16.8% 15.9% 17.4%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Cost Structure of 13.3” &“15.4”W LED BLU
LED module26%
Reflective sheet5%
TurningFilm/2XBEF
9%
Diffusion sheet5%
Light SourceAssembly
7%
Lightguide plate36%
Bezel & Frame6%
Others MaterialsSubtotal
1%
Overhead,SG&A,Package
5%
High-end Model
Mainstream Model
13.3” NB
15.4” NB Normal Glass: 0.5mm
Extra-polishing Glass: 0.35mm
Flat LGP (Dots): 0.9mm
Flat LGP (Slim V-cut): 0.7mm
15.4" Flat Dot LGP
Bezel & Frame8%
Others MaterialsSubtotal
6%Overhead,SG&A,
Package11%
Diffusion sheet6%
TurningFilm/2XBEF
11%
Reflective sheet2%
Lightguide plate10%
Light SourceAssembly
12%
LED module34%
Side-view LED
13.3” Slim V-cut LGP
Side-view LED
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Cost Premium: CCFL vs. LED BLU
US$Technology 13.3" 15.4" 22" 42"CCFL $10.6 $11.3 $18.4 $133.0LED $23.8 $16.0 $40.0 $389.0premium 124.5% 41.6% 117.4% 192.5%PS: 13.3" LED LGP: Slim V-cut; 15.4" LED LGP: Dots LGP
= side-view LED = Top-view LED
$0$50
$100$150$200$250$300$350$400US$
13.3" 15.4" 22" 40"
CCFLLED48 LEDs 60 LEDs
210 LEDs
960 LEDs
Source: DisplaySearch Q2’08 Backlight Lamps and Backlight Units Report
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Agenda
•Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market
•Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast
•Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB
•Summary
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Flat Slim V-cut LGP= 0.6-0.9mm
Normal Wedge LGP=0.6&1.2mm
Flat Dots LGP=0.8-0.9mm
Injection yield rate
Assembly Handling
LGP Injection
Optical performanceCurtain Moiré
Not uniform
LED Supply
Side-view or top-view
Intensity= 1800mcd-2200mcd
LED suppliers pool
Patent Issue of Phosphor
LED Light bar
LED Number Reduction
Thermal Solution
Issues of LED BLU for NB (Slim or Normal)
LED Inside
Still Chasing Slim Form Factor as Target?
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Power Saving of LED BLU for NB
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
12.1" 13.3" 14.1" 15.4"
Pow
er (w
)
CCFLLED@20mA
35%37%
44% 41%
【Safety】Relative low start up voltage to ensure operation safety
【Power Saving】The relationship between LED intensity and driving current is linearLower current is operated to perform the same brightness level than CCFL modelPower saving of 30-50% of CCFL power consumption 輝度電圧
輝度 LED
CCFL
Current
BrightnessCurrent vs. Brightness
Advantage
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What will be thinner than this?
Ultimate thinner profile performance of LED BLU--- An Envelope-packed PC
WOW !!
CCFL BLULED Panel= Slim glass+ LED BLU
Thickness 50%
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Trend of Design Concept
Current Next Phase
Flat LGP
Optical FilmsLED
LGP: V-cut type
LGP: V-cut type
LGP: Dots & Wedge type
LGP: Dots type
•Replace CCDFL Model
•Lowest Cost Solution
•Thinnest & High-end BLU
•Highest Cost Solution
Thinner & easier-made BLU
•High Brightness
•Low Yield rate
•Tough optical design
•Patent Constrain
Speed up LED BLU penetration
Slow down LED BLU penetration
Speed up LED BLU penetration
Flat LGP
Optical FilmsLED
Flat LGP
Optical FilmsLED
Wedge LGPW-LED
Optical Films
High-end
Mainstream
Mainstream
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Agenda
•Benefit and Potential of LED in Notebook Market
•Cost Analysis and LED NB Market Forecast
•Key Factors to Enhance The Penetration of LED NB
•Summary
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Summary (I)
LED BLU InsideLED BLU Application NB MNT LCD TVEvalution Factors
LED Amount 3 2 1Power Saving 3 2 1Color Gamut 1 1 3Motion Blurless 2 2 3High Contrast 1 1 3Light Weight 3 1 1Thin Profile 3 1 1Cost Gap 3 2 1Productivity 3 2 1Attraction 3 1 2Total Score 25 15 173: Excellent 2: Good 1: Fair
Give your score card for the market penetration of LED BLU by application
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Summary (II)
Low PollutionLow CO2
Work Hard For the “Green” Planet
Low Temperature
3 “L”
More GreenMore Safety More Fun
3 ”M”