dispatch no. 45 | 15 september 2015 african...

Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015 1

Dispatch No. 45 | 15 September 2015

African democracy update: Democratic

satisfaction remains elusive for many

Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 45 | Thomas Bentley, Kangwook Han,

and Peter Halley Penar

Summary

For democracy advocates around the world, International Day of Democracy highlights the

contributions of citizens to making decisions for their countries and ensuring that governments

are accountable to their people. On International Day of Democracy 2015 (September 15),

Afrobarometer examines how African citizens perceive the quality of their democracies.

Many African countries have signed or ratified the African Union Charter on Democracy,

Elections and Governance, which clearly expresses governments’ commitments to “human

rights and democratic principles,” a representative system of government (Chapter 4 and

Chapter 5), and free and fair elections (Chapter 7). New Afrobarometer data from 28

countries1 suggest that the extent to which African countries put democratic ideals into

practice varies widely across countries.

On average, barely half of surveyed citizens consider their country a “full democracy” or “a

democracy with minor problems,” and less than half (46%) are “fairly” or “very” satisfied with

how democracy is working in their country, a decrease from the previous survey round.

Levels of satisfaction range from highs of 72% in Namibia and 68% in Botswana to lows of 26%

in Togo and 11% in Madagascar.

Regular, free, and fair elections, a cornerstone of democracy, are not yet a universal reality,

the survey data indicate. While large majorities in Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) consider

their most recent national elections either “completely free and fair” or “free and fair but

with minor problems,” only 46% share this opinion in Ghana.

Other important elements of democracy, such as freedom of speech and association, also

show substantial differences among countries. In several countries, such as Swaziland, Togo,

and Zimbabwe, citizens perceive high barriers to speaking freely, whereas most Malawians

and Ghanaians believe they can say what they think. Differences across the 28 countries are

smaller with regard to the freedom to join political organisations and the freedom to vote for

candidates of their choice, although a majority of Swazis register a lack of freedom of

association and vote choice.

As the African Union and international community work to support African countries to fulfil

their commitments to democracy, the perceptions of ordinary citizens provide an important

window on progress and remaining challenges.

1 Afrobarometer Round 6 surveys, representing two-thirds of African countries and 76% of the continent’s population, cover countries at various levels of democracy, although a number of the continent’s least democratic states are excluded. The 28 countries for which Round 6 data are currently available are Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.


Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude

surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more

than 30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013,

and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer conducts face-to-

face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative

samples that yield country-level results with margins of error of +/-2% (for samples of 2,400) or

+/3% (for samples of 1,200) at a 95% confidence level.

This dispatch presents some preliminary findings based on data from 41,953 interviews

completed so far in 28 countries during Round 6 (see the appendix for fieldwork completion

times). Interested readers should watch for additional findings on democracy and other

topics to be released once Round 6 surveys are completed, starting in October 2015.

Key findings

On average across 28 countries, a slight majority (52%) of citizens perceive their

country to be a full democracy (18%) or a democracy with only minor problems

(34%). In 10 of the 28 countries, the more frequently expressed view is that the country

is a democracy with major problems or not a democracy at all.

Compared to the previous round of surveys (Round 5, 2011-2013), satisfaction with

democracy declined from 50% to 46% of citizens who say they are “very” or “fairly”

satisfied. Satisfaction levels vary substantially across countries, from highs of 72% in

Namibia and 68% in Botswana to lows of 26% in Togo and 11% in Madagascar.

Seven of 10 respondents say their most recent national elections were “completely

free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems.” About nine of 10 citizens in

Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) share this view, but only 46% of Ghanaians agree.

A bare majority (51%) of citizens say they are “completely free” to say what they

think. Freedom of speech is perceived as most limited in Swaziland (where only 18%

say they are completely free), Togo (26%), and Zimbabwe (27%). Citizens are

somewhat more confident in their freedom of political association (61% completely

free) and express relatively high confidence in their freedom to vote as they choose

(73%).

No consensus on the supply of democracy

A slim majority (52%) of Africans perceive their country to be either a full democracy (18%) or

a democracy with only minor problems (34%) (Figure 1).


Figure 1: Extent of democracy | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much of a democracy is your country today?

Countries differ considerably in the extent of democracy that their citizens perceive.

Majorities give favourable assessments in 15 countries, led by Mauritius (76%), Botswana

(75%), and Namibia (72%) (Figure 2). But at the other extreme, only one-third of citizens in

Swaziland and Nigeria share this positive assessment. (Note that Nigerians’ negative

assessments of the extent of their democracy, their satisfaction with democracy, and the

quality of their most recent national election were captured in December 2014, some three

months before the country underwent a historic electoral transition. On the flipside,

Burundians’ relatively positive assessments were recorded in September-October 2014, long

before the highly contested 2015 election that saw President Pierre Nkurunziza win a

constitutionally questionable third term while many opposition and civil-society leaders had

to flee the country.) Overall, in 10 of the 28 countries, more citizens say their country is not a

democracy or a democracy with major problems than hold the more favourable view.

10%

27%

34%

18%

12%

Not a democracy

A democracy, with

major problems

A democracy, but with

minor problems

A full democracy

Do not understand

question / democracy /

Don't know


Figure 2: Extent of democracy | by country | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Satisfaction with democracy varies just as widely. Across 28 countries, only a plurality (46%) of

citizens say they are “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied” with the way democracy works in their

country(Figure 3), while 43% say they are “not very satisfied” or “not at all satisfied.”

Satisfaction runs highest in Namibia (72%), Botswana (68%), Mauritius (66%), and Burundi (66%)

but falls below one-third of citizens in seven countries, including Madagascar (11%), Togo

(25%), Cape Verde (26%), and Nigeria (28%). (As above, the caveats regarding the timing of

the Burundi and Nigeria surveys apply.) Sizeable majorities express dissatisfaction with their

democracy in 11 of the 28 countries.

76%

75%

72%

71%

70%

65%

65%

58%

55%

55%

54%

53%

52%

52%

52%

51%

49%

48%

48%

45%

44%

40%

38%

38%

37%

36%

35%

33%

33%

4%

5%

6%

4%

12%

9%

9%

27%

10%

2%

7%

9%

10%

24%

11%

10%

9%

3%

21%

8%

9%

4%

36%

7%

17%

19%

18%

4%

16%

20%

20%

22%

25%

18%

26%

26%

14%

35%

44%

39%

39%

38%

24%

37%

39%

42%

49%

32%

47%

47%

56%

27%

55%

47%

45%

47%

63%

51%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mauritius

Botswana

Namibia

Burundi

Niger

Senegal

Zambia

Tanzania

Cape Verde

Mali

Benin

Liberia

Ghana

Uganda

Average

Burkina Faso

Malawi

Guinea

Kenya

Côte d'Ivoire

Cameroon

Togo

Sierra Leone

Tunisia

Lesotho

Zimbabwe

Madagascar

Nigeria

Swaziland

A full democracy or a democracy with minor problems

Do not understand question / democracy or don't know

Not a democracy or a democracy with major problems


Figure 3: Satisfaction with democracy | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your

country?

Satisfaction with democracy is not static, and changes over time may sometimes reflect

factors other than the functioning of democratic institutions (such as economic problems

that citizens may attribute to “democracy,” or rising (as-yet unsatisfied) public expectations

of how democracy should work). Looking at short-term changes since Round 5 surveys were

conducted in 2011-2013, we find that on average across the 28 countries, satisfaction with

democracy decreased from 50% to 46%. It increased markedly, however, in six countries, led

by Mali (a 19-percentage-point increase) and Tunisia (18-point increase) (Figure 4).

In contrast, seven countries experienced declines in satisfaction of more than 10 percentage

points, most dramatically a 32-percentage–point drop in Sierra Leone (Figure 5). Ghana’s 18-

percentage–point decrease in satisfaction is particularly remarkable; discontent with the

2%

7%

8%

7%

4%

14%

13%

12%

8%

7%

8%

17%

14%

11%

15%

12%

19%

16%

15%

20%

9%

29%

12%

19%

29%

31%

14%

29%

27%

9%

18%

18%

21%

24%

16%

19%

22%

28%

30%

32%

24%

29%

32%

31%

35%

30%

33%

35%

35%

49%

31%

48%

45%

36%

35%

52%

39%

45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Madagascar

Togo

Cape Verde

Swaziland

Nigeria

Sierra Leone

Lesotho

Zimbabwe

Côte d'Ivoire

Cameroon

Benin

Guinea

Liberia

Burkina Faso

Average

Kenya

Malawi

Mali

Uganda

Ghana

Tunisia

Zambia

Tanzania

Senegal

Niger

Burundi

Mauritius

Botswana

Namibia

Very satisfied Fairly satisfied


government’s economic management may be one of several factors contributing to this

change.2

Figure 4: Increasing satisfaction with democracy | 6 countries with largest increases

| 2011-2015

(% “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied”)

Figure 5: Declining satisfaction with democracy | countries with declines of more

than 10 percentage points | 2011-2015

(% “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied”)

2 See Bratton, M., & Gyimah-Boadi, E. (2015). Political risks facing African democracies: Evidence from Afrobarometer. Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 157, at www.afrobarometer.org.

50%

46%

31%

50%

40%

58%62%

72%

30%

37%

30%

36%

21%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2011/2013 2014/2015

28-country

average

Mali

Tunisia

Namibia

Cameroon

Cote d’Ivoire

Togo

50%

46%

59%

43%

75%

60%74%

56%

45%

26%

50%

32%

60%

40%

61%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2011/2013 2014/2015

28-country

average

Liberia

Tanzania

Ghana

Cape Verde

Lesotho

Benin


Elections: A key democratic indicator

Elections are widely recognized as a key component of the democratic process, and the

perceived quality of elections has been found to be a strong indicator of popular ratings of

the quality of democracy. Afrobarometer asked respondents to rate the quality of the most

recent national election in their country (see the appendix for election year by country).

Across 28 countries, seven in 10 African citizens (70%) indicate that their elections were

“completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems” (Figure 6). About nine of 10

citizens in Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) share this view, while citizens in Ghana (46%),

Nigeria (46%), Liberia (54%), and Côte d’Ivoire (55%) are least likely to agree.

Figure 6: Quality of elections | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Respondents were asked: On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last

national election? (% who say “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems”)

Freedom of speech limited in several countries

Another key indicator of the quality of a democracy is the enjoyment of basic freedoms of

speech, association, and vote choice. Across the 28 countries, a bare majority of 51% of

citizens say they are “completely free” to speak their minds (Figure 7). Another 26% feel

“somewhat free,” while 22% say they are “not at all” or “not very” free to say what they think.

Malawi (77%) and Ghana (73%) top the list of those who say they enjoy complete freedom of

expression; majorities share this view in 18 of the 28 countries. Freedom of speech is

perceived as most limited in in Swaziland (where only 18% say they are completely free),

Togo (26%), Zimbabwe (27%), Nigeria (28%), Burkina Faso (31%), and Côte d’Ivoire (31%).

9187

84 83 83 81 80 78 77 76 75 7570 70 69 69 68 67 66 64 62 61

58 56 56 55 54

46 46

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ma

uritiu

s

Se

ne

ga

l

Ma

da

ga

sca

r

Nig

er

Ma

li

Bu

run

di

Na

mib

ia

Ug

an

da

Bo

tsw

an

a

Sw

azi

lan

d

Leso

tho

Tan

zan

ia

Ma

law

i

Ave

rag

e

Tun

isia

Sie

rra

Le

on

e

Zim

ba

bw

e

Gu

ine

a

Be

nin

Bu

rkin

a F

aso

Ke

nya

Tog

o

Ca

me

roo

n

Za

mb

ia

Ca

pe

Ve

rde

Cô

te d

'Ivo

ire

Lib

eria

Nig

eria

Gh

an

a


Figure 7: Freedom of speech | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to say what you think?

4%

9%

9%

10%

10%

10%

12%

14%

15%

15%

16%

16%

16%

17%

19%

20%

22%

22%

23%

24%

24%

25%

28%

32%

38%

38%

39%

43%

59%

26%

21%

17%

23%

17%

12%

22%

33%

29%

14%

43%

24%

19%

28%

26%

23%

42%

26%

15%

44%

24%

31%

36%

9%

34%

30%

32%

30%

20%

70%

70%

73%

67%

72%

77%

65%

53%

53%

68%

41%

59%

65%

54%

53%

56%

36%

51%

62%

31%

53%

42%

35%

53%

26%

31%

28%

27%

18%

0%

0%

1%

1%

0%

1%

1%

0%

2%

3%

0%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

6%

2%

1%

1%

1%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Tanzania

Namibia

Ghana

Tunisia

Senegal

Malawi

Uganda

Benin

Liberia

Lesotho

Mauritius

Guinea

Botswana

Kenya

Niger

Cape Verde

Madagascar

Average

Zambia

Burkina Faso

Mali

Cameroon

Burundi

Sierra Leone

Togo

Côte d'Ivoire

Nigeria

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Not at all or not very free Somewhat free Completely free Don’t know


Citizens are somewhat more confident in their freedom of political association. In half of the

countries, no more than one in 10 citizens say they are “not very” or “not at all” free (Figure

8). On average across 28 countries, 15% say they lack freedom of association, 21% feel

“somewhat free,” and 62% feel “completely free.” The most dramatic exceptions are

Swaziland (where 73% of citizens say they do not enjoy freedom of association) and

Zimbabwe (41% not free).

Figure 8: Lack of freedom of political association | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to join any political organisation you want?

(% who say “not at all free” or “not very free”)

73%

41%

24%

23%

22%

22%

19%

17%

16%

16%

15%

15%

13%

11%

11%

10%

10%

9%

8%

8%

7%

6%

6%

5%

4%

4%

4%

4%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Swaziland

Zimbabwe

Nigeria

Togo

Madagascar

Cote d'Ivoire

Mauritius

Zambia

Cape Verde

Burundi

Burkina Faso

Average

Kenya

Cameroon

Tunisia

Guinea

Benin

Malawi

Lesotho

Sierra Leone

Uganda

Liberia

Mali

Namibia

Ghana

Botswana

Niger

Senegal

Tanzania


Voting freedom is reported to be considerably more robust. Nearly three-fourths (73%) say

they are completely free to vote as they choose, while 18% feel at least “somewhat free”

(Figure 9). But while 80% or more say they are completely free in 12 countries, in several

others confidence is considerably more circumscribed, including Zimbabwe (35% completely

free), Nigeria (49%), Côte d’Ivoire (54%), Burundi (55%), and Swaziland (56%). Just 8% report

that they do not enjoy any electoral freedom, although this number rises to more than one-

third (35%) in Zimbabwe. So while overall confidence in voting freedom is high, it is clear that

citizens in a number of countries still face significant barriers to voting for the candidate of

their choice.

Figure 9: Freedom to vote for candidate of their choice | 28 countries | 2014/2015

Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to choose who to vote for without feeling

pressured?

94%

89%

89%

86%

85%

85%

85%

85%

83%

82%

80%

80%

79%

77%

77%

77%

74%

73%

72%

72%

68%

61%

58%

57%

56%

55%

54%

49%

35%

3%

9%

6%

7%

13%

11%

10%

10%

7%

8%

18%

17%

17%

18%

15%

14%

24%

18%

21%

16%

21%

34%

30%

34%

29%

36%

30%

31%

29%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Malawi

Senegal

Tunisia

Sierra Leone

Namibia

Ghana

Botswana

Uganda

Lesotho

Zambia

Tanzania

Niger

Mali

Guinea

Kenya

Liberia

Mauritius

Average

Benin

Cape Verde

Cameroon

Madagascar

Togo

Burkina Faso

Swaziland

Burundi

Côte d'Ivoire

Nigeria

Zimbabwe

Completely free Somewhat free


Appendix

Country Month when Round 6

fieldwork was completed Last national election

prior to survey

Benin June 2014 2011

Botswana July 2014 2009

Burkina Faso May 2015 2012

Burundi October 2014 2010

Cameroon February 2015 2013

Cape Verde December 2014 2011

Côte d'Ivoire September 2014 2011

Ghana June 2014 2012

Guinea April 2015 2013

Kenya December 2014 2013

Lesotho May 2014 2012

Liberia May 2015 2011

Madagascar January 2015 2013

Malawi April 2014 2009

Mali December 2014 2013

Mauritius July 2014 2010

Namibia September 2014 2009

Niger April 2015 2011

Nigeria January 2015 2011

Senegal December 2014 2012

Sierra Leone June 2015 2012

Swaziland April 2015 2013

Tanzania November 2014 2010

Togo October 2014 2013

Tunisia May 2015 2014

Uganda May 2015 2011

Zambia October 2014 2011

Zimbabwe November 2014 2013


To further explore this data, please visit Afrobarometer's online data analysis facility at www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis.

Thomas Bentley is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the

Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]

Kangwook Han is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the


Peter Halley Penar is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the


Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 30 African

countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD) in

Ghana, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for

Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical

Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the

University of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.

Core support for Afrobarometer Rounds 5 and 6 has been provided by the UK’s Department

for International Development (DFID), the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the Swedish International

Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the United States Agency for International

Development (USAID), and the World Bank.

For more information, please visit www.afrobarometer.org.

Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 45 | 15 September 2015

mailto:[email protected]



http://www.afrobarometer.org/

dispatch no. 45 | 15 september 2015 african...

Documents